CFL Week 2 Preview and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand
Edmonton Eskimos (1-0) at Montreal Alouettes (1-0)
In the absence of running back Jesse Lumsden, the American Arkee Whitlock will play his first game in the CFL against the Alouettes, sharing duties with non-import Calvin McCarthy.
Will that be enough to help Ricky Ray and his troops develop the anaemic offence that was deployed last week against the Blue Bombers?
One thing bettors can be sure of, the Eskimos can’t afford to be as sloppy in Montreal against the Als, otherwise they will get an embarrassing beating. Even if the Alouettes are without slotbacks Jamel Richardson and Eric Deslauriers, Anthony Calvillo will rely on their replacements, S.J. Green and Danny Desriveaux, who are both very capable.
Prediction: Montreal -7
Calgary Stampeders (0-1) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (0-1)
The Blue Bombers defence showed nice things in the loss to the Edmonton Eskimos in Week 1. But young QB Stefan LeFors didn’t convince us he has what it takes to bring Winnipeg to the highest level.
This said, the defensive front of the Stampeders didn’t look good against the Alouettes and quick running backs like Fred Reid and Lavarus Giles could have a field day.
But even if they do, it is quite difficult to imagine Henry Burris and the Stampeders having another sloppy game like the one they had against the Montreal Alouettes. Even if Ken-Yon Rambo was to miss a second game due to injury, Burris can throw the ball with confidence to the amazing Titus Ryan or reliable receivers Nik Lewis, Jeremaine Copeland and Brett Ralph. The Stampeders are just too strong to fall in Winnipeg’s trap.
Prediction: Calgary -6
Hamilton Tiger Cats (0-1) at B.C. Lions (0-1)
It is always very tough for any team from the Eastern Conference to win in the West, let alone Vancouver. It’s even worse when you have to face a Lions team that just lost its previous game.
Quarterback Quinton Porter has a lot to prove yet after running nine times instead of passing, like he did against the Argos. The Lions offensive line still looks pretty fragile but we can’t envision the defensive front of the Ti-Cats taking advantage of it to unsettle Buck Pierce like the Saskatchewan Roughriders managed to do last week.
The Lions running game is also their Achilles’ heel but their passing game should cut the Tiger Cats secondary in pieces. No team in the East won against the Lions in Vancouver since 2004. The Tiger Cats won’t reverse that trend in Week 2.
Prediction: B.C. -13
Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-0) at Toronto Argonauts (1-0)
This will probably be the most exciting game of the week - one where the winner will be decided in the last seconds of the fourth quarter, if not in overtime.
The Roughriders stunned bettors by beating B.C. last week and Darian Durant was more than instrumental in that win. But the Argos have an improved offensive line and QB Kerry Joseph has many good targets to choose from, starting with Arland Bruce III. Running back Jamal Robertson has also been impressive in Week 1.
Despite the nice victory against B.C., they are still too many question marks regarding the Roughriders to think they could win this one in Toronto. This being said, the spread between the winner and loser will probably be minimal.
Prediction: Toronto -3
Thursday, July 9
EDMONTON (1 - 0) at MONTREAL (1 - 0)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-2 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Friday, July 10
CALGARY (0 - 1) at WINNIPEG (0 - 1)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 2-2 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 2-2 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON (0 - 1) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (0 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 2-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-0 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Saturday, July 11
SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 0) at TORONTO (1 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 127-97 ATS (+20.3 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 127-97 ATS (+20.3 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 85-52 ATS (+27.8 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 116-87 ATS (+20.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in July games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games in July games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON vs. MONTREAL
Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Montreal is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Edmonton
Montreal is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
CALGARY vs. WINNIPEG
Calgary is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Calgary is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Winnipeg is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Calgary
Winnipeg is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Calgary
HAMILTON vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Hamilton is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Hamilton is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
British Columbia is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
British Columbia is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
SASKATCHEWAN vs. TORONTO
Saskatchewan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Saskatchewan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
DUNKEL
Week 2
Edmonton at Montreal
The Alouettes look to build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 home games. Montreal is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has Montreal favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-7).
Edmonton at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 112.449; Montreal 119.902
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 7 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Montreal by 7; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-7); Under
Calgary at Winnipeg
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 115.609; Winnipeg 107.933
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 7 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-5 1/2); Under
Hamilton at BC
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 101.622; BC 111.780
Dunkel Line: BC by 10; 57
Vegas Line: BC by 13; 50
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+13); Over
Saskatchewan at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 108.969; Toronto 112.231
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 3 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Toronto by 2 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-2 1/2); Over
Thursday, July 9
Edmonton (1-0) @ Montreal (1-0)-- Eskimos (+6) lost 36-26 here LY in CFL semifinals; they beat Winnipeg 19-17 last week, despite being -3 in turnovers and allowing Bombers 162 rushing yards (5.8/carry). Als won 40-27 at Calgary last week, avenging loss in LY's Grey Cup.
Friday, July 10
Calgary (0-1) @ Winnipeg (0-1)-- Defending champ Stampeders gave up 27 points in first half last week, lost 40-27 at home to Montreal-- they were outgained 431-301 and had just 54 rushing yards. Bombers had an 162-33 edge in rushing yards at Edmonton last week, but lost 19-17.
Hamilton (0-1) @ BCLions (0-1)-- TiCats were down 30-3 to Toronto at half last week in their home opener- they allowed Argos 7.6 yards per rush, and were -2 in turnovers. Lions had just 103 passing yards in loss at Regina, a sloppy game (BC had six turnovers, 10 penalties/90 yards).
Saturday, July 11
Saskatchewan (1-0) @ Toronto (1-0)-- Roughriders also turned ball over six times last week, and had 128 penalty yards, but they escaped with a win, outgaining Lions 314-217. Hard to tell if Argos pulled in reins after crushing Hamilton in first half last week- they completed just 14 of 29 passes, which isn't good, but they didn't turn ball over either.