Betting the CFL
By Bodog
It’s time once again for football betting fans to cast their eyes to the Canadian Football League, where the balls are indeed bigger. All eight teams will be in action over the weekend, starting Friday night in the town that gave us Anna Paquin.
Friday
Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8:00 p.m. ET)
Because we’re dealing with three-down football and a larger field, quarterbacks are even more important in the CFL than they are in the NFL. And the Blue Bombers (7-11 SU, 9-8 ATS last year) have what looks like a considerable upgrade at that position with Buck Pierce. The former New Mexico State QB racked up a 21-12-1 record in five years with the B.C. Lions, but they let him go after his 2009 campaign produced 10 touchdown throws and a dozen interceptions.
The question is whether Pierce can stay healthy. But for now, the results look good: Pierce led Winnipeg (+3 on the CFL odds) to a 49-29 victory over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in Week 1. The Argonauts (3-15 SU, 6-11 ATS) hope they have their QB problems solved as well with NFL cast-off Cleo Lemon, but he was limited to 192 yards passing in Toronto’s 30-16 loss to the Calgary Stampeders (-13.5). The transition from the NFL to the CFL often takes time and isn’t always a smooth one – just ask Vince Ferragamo and Timm Rosenbach.
Saturday
Calgary Stampeders at Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Canadian football is also a haven for place-kickers, since the goalposts are still on the goal line, just like they were in the NFL up until 1974. Calgary (10-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) drafted Rob Maver fifth overall this year out of the University of Guelph, and he kicked five field goals against Toronto in his debut. Maver could be called upon frequently given the patchwork offensive line and the departure of co-ordinator George Cortez.
Maver is replacing Sandro DeAngelis, who bolted for Hamilton (9-9 SU, 12-5 ATS) after five successful seasons in Cowtown, including three All-Star nods and a Grey Cup in 2008. DeAngelis was a quiet 2-for-2 in his Ti-Cats debut, while QB Kevin Glenn was held to 197 yards passing. The score would have been even more lopsided if it hadn’t been for Hamilton kick returner Marcus Thigpen and his two TDs – the returner being another hallowed position in Canadian football. Better results are expected from Glenn and the Ti-Cats this year.
Saskatchewan Roughriders at British Columbia Lions
The Roughriders (10-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) lost the 2009 Grey Cup to the Montreal Alouettes because of a too-many-men penalty. The West Division is loaded with talent, but Saskatchewan is in a good position to build on last year’s success. And they started with a wild 54-51 overtime win over the Als (-3.5), who led 33-12 early in the third quarter. The key player for the Green Riders: QB Darian Durant, who threw five TD passes and no picks. Durant is in his second full season as Saskatchewan’s starter and improved tremendously over the course of the 2009 campaign.
This could be another mediocre year for the Lions (8-10 SU, 8-8 ATS). The offense looks good with the return of 2004 Most Outstanding Player Casey Printers as the starting quarterback, but the defense was bad last year and should get worse with the departure of DE Ricky Foley to the Seattle Seahawks. Foley led the league last year with 12 sacks. Yet the Lions (+4) were able to beat the Edmonton Eskimos 25-10 in their season opener on six field goals by 40-year-old kicker Paul McCallum.
Sunday
Sunday: Montreal Alouettes at Edmonton Eskimos
This is the second of three straight road games to start the season while Montreal (15-3 SU, 11-6 ATS) upgrades Molson Stadium, so a sluggish start can be expected. This is still the cream of the CFL crop and the 2-1 favorite to win another Grey Cup, led once again by three-time MOP Anthony Calvillo at quarterback. However, he is missing one important player in front of him: center Bryan Chiu, who announced his retirement at the start of training camp.
These are nervous times in Edmonton (9-9 SU, 6-12 ATS). The Eskies still have tons of star power at QB with Ricky Ray and Jason Maas, but the defense was poor last year under co-ordinator Jim Daley, so his job has been taken over by coach Richie Hall. He may be stretching himself too thinly in his second year as a CFL coach; Edmonton couldn’t stop B.C.’s Jamal Robertson from rushing for 168 yards on 11 carries in Week 1. Things could get ugly very quickly against the Als.
TORONTO (0 - 1) at WINNIPEG (1 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996.
TORONTO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1996.
TORONTO is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 4-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Saturday, July 10
CALGARY (1 - 0) at HAMILTON (0 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 2-2 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 3-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 0) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 139-104 ATS (+24.6 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 139-104 ATS (+24.6 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 93-56 ATS (+31.4 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 126-94 ATS (+22.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in July games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-3 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-3 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Sunday, July 11
MONTREAL (0 - 1) at EDMONTON (0 - 1)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO vs. WINNIPEG
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Toronto is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto
Saturday, July 10
CALGARY vs. HAMILTON
Calgary is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Calgary is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 7 games
Hamilton is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
SASKATCHEWAN vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Saskatchewan is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
British Columbia is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
Sunday, July 11
MONTREAL vs. EDMONTON
Montreal is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing Montreal
CFL Week 2 Preview and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand
Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-11.5, 46.5)
It looks like it’s going to be another tough season for Toronto CFL fans. Once again the defense of the Double Blue held its ground in Week 1 for at least the first half against the Stampeders. But the offense led by QB Cleo Lemon, who was 16 in 28 for 192 yards, didn’t offer much.
Rookie receivers Jeffery Webb and Brandon Rideau dropped a few easy catches, and even sure-handed Jeremaine Copeland fumbled the ball after a catch. No, the Argos’ attack didn’t shine on opening night.
It’s a different story for Winnipeg. Blue Bombers QB Buck Pierce completed 17 of 25 passes for 291 yards and a pair of TDs without throwing an interception against the Tiger-Cats. Wideout Terrence Edwards also had a great game reeling in five balls for a couple of TDs. If Pierce and Edwards are given the opportunity, they will rip the Argos defense to shreds.
But the veteran QB will need more support from his O-line. Pierce got sacked four times and was hurried multiple times against Hamilton. That’s not a good sign for a signal caller who’s been injury prone throughout his career and especially vulnerable to concussions.
Also keep in mind that defensive end Phillip Hunt had a blast against Hamilton’s rookie RT Simeon Rottier last week with a career high three sacks, two tackles and a forced fumble. Toronto RT Chris Van Zeyl has only five starts in the CFL.
Pick: Winnipeg
Calgary Stampeders at Hamilton Tiger Cats (-2, 50.5)
The Stampeders were far from impressive last week against the worst team in the CFL. Sure, Henry Burris completed 27 of 40 pass attempts for 320 yards but he didn’t throw a single TD pass, got sacked twice and was intercepted once. Calgary better get into gear because the Tiger Cats will prove much more of a challenge than the Argos.
Kevin Glenn handled most of the plays under center for the Tiger Cats and finished 15 of 30 on pass attempts for 197 yards and a TD. Hamilton’s special teams produced a 93-yard kickoff return for a score last week and should a difference maker again.
Expect a great game from Hamilton kicker Sandro DeAngelis who will find extra motivation against his former team. Hamilton also showed promise on defense with four sacks and a couple of turnovers. Of course the unit ended up collapsing and allowed 502 yards to the Bombers. This will be a close one, but give the advantage to the home team.
Pick: Hamilton
Saskatchewan Roughriders at British Columbia Lions (-2.5, 53)
Can the Green Riders regroup after a thrilling roller-coaster ride that gave them a 54-51 double overtime win against the Grey Cup defending champs to kickoff the 2010 season? Lions QB Casey Printers has a history of success against Saskatchewan, but Riders quarterback Darian Durant was almost perfect in last week against the Alouettes.
It will all come down to which defense will play the best. One thing seems for sure, Durant, who was 30 in 44 for 478 yards and 5 TDs against Montreal, won’t have as much fun against the Lions secondary.
Pick: Under
Montreal Alouettes vs Edmonton Eskimos (+5.5, 53)
Ricky Ray must play better in Week 2 if the Eskimos have a chance to win against a Montreal team that can and will put lots of points. Ray will have a chance to redeem himself.
Montreal’s stop unit showed some serious weaknesses since the departure to B.C. of DT Kerone Williams and CB Davis Sanchez, along with the injuries to LB Diamond Ferri and CB Mark Estelle.
The Alouettes have been hit by a scorching heat wave in Montreal this week that could have affected some players and certainly did change the pace of practices. Many players complained of heat and fatigue in the second half of their season opener in Regina.
Even if Ray connects at will with Fred Stamps and Kelly Campbell, and Calvin McCarthy runs the ball at will, the Eskimos D will need to prevent Calvillo’s bombing squad to do as they please on the field.
The Alouettes will try to take advantage of rookie safety Saleem Borhot (replacing Jason Nugent out with a hamstring injury) who will make his first career start on Sunday.
Although they lost to B.C. in Week 1, Edmonton’s defense limited the Lions to a single touchdown and forced them to score six field goals.
Pick: Edmonton