CFL Week 3 preview and picks
Thursday, July 16
B.C. Lions (0-2) at Edmonton Eskimos (1-1) -4.5, 53
The Eskimos’ offensive line got crushed last week in Montreal, allowing the Alouettes to sack QB Ricky Ray six times. The same thing may happen against the B.C. Lions, who registered seven sacks in their first two games.
The Lions have their own issues on the O-line after releasing import left tackle Walter Stith earlier this week. He will be replaced by Daren Heerspink who was signed 10 days ago. Can he do a better job protecting Buck Pierce in his first game with the Lions?
Expect both defensive units to dominate this game by neutralizing the opposing quarterback. This game will be a close one, but the loss of kicker Paul McCallum might be too much for B.C. to overcome.
Pick: Edmonton
Friday, July 17
Toronto Argonauts (1-1) at Calgary Stampeders (0-2) -7.5, 55
The Stampeders have been atrocious so far this season. Their offense has struggled, but should get back on track against the weakest defense in the East.
Expect the Argos to take advantage of Calgary’s difficulties containing the running game. The Stampeders are dead last in the CFL in stopping the run.
The Alouettes and the Blue Bombers piled up 319 yards on the ground against the Stamps in the first two games of 2009. Jamal Robertson, Toronto’s lead running back, gained 214 yards rushing in two games, averaging close to nine yards per carry.
Despite all that, I’m still picking the home side. I can’t see a Calgary team this talented starting the campaign 0-3.
Pick: Calgary
Saturday, July 18
Montreal Alouettes (2-0) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (2-0) +4.5, 57.5
The only two unbeaten teams left in the CFL face each other Saturday afternoon in Regina. The Roughriders won their first two against the Lions and the Argonauts, but neither opponent has legitimate Grey Cup hopes for 2009.
The Als, on the other hand, rolled over the two West foes who are considered real contenders. Montreal showed it still has one of the deadliest offenses in the CFL and a much more efficient defence than last season. Running back Wes Cates, who missed the Riders’ first two games recovering from offseason shoulder injury, will probably be in the lineup. Hugh Charles filled in admirably in his absence, but Saskatchewan is a better team when Cates is on the backfield.
The Roughriders are always tough to beat in Regina, but I think Montreal is good enough to win and cover the number.
Pick: Montreal
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-1) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-1) +1, 54
A Winnipeg scout was ejected on Tuesday after being caught taking notes during Hamilton’s practice. The news has created a Spygate-like controversy north of the border. But honestly, who wants to spy on the Ticats?
This will be a running back showdown between Winnipeg’s Fred Reid and CFL Offensive player of the week DeAndra’ Cobb. The Tiger-Cats will have more difficulty stopping Reid than Winnipeg will against Cobb. MLB Barrin Simpson and LB Siddeeq Shabazz have been impressive and Winnipeg’s defense already has eight takeaways after two games.
Pick: Winnipeg
Week 3 CFL games
Thursday, July 16
BC Lions (0-2) @ Edmonton (1-1)-- Brutal start to year for Lions, who lost first two games by combined total of seven points, including losing to 13-point underdog Hamilton last week. Edmonton was -3 in turnovers in both of its first two games; they've been outrushed 280-95 so far this season. Eskimos have been outscored 46-20 in second half of games.
Friday, July 17
Toronto (1-1) @ Calgary (0-2)-- Not much defense for Stampeders this year, giving up 40 points at home to Montreal, 42 at Winnipeg a week ago, when they also had 14 penalties for 132 yards- they have given up 319 rushing yards in two games. Argos were down 37-13 at half in home loss to Roughriders last week- they had 17 penalties for 141 yards.
Saturday, July 18
Montreal (2-0) @ Saskatchewan (2-0)-- High-powered Alouettes scored 40-50 points in their first two games, completing 24-32 passes in both games (255-339 yards), while running ball for 294 yards. Riders are also 2-0, with 11 takeaways which offset their eight turnovers--they've been called for 21 penalties in two games-- they let up in 2nd half last week.
Winnipeg (1-1) @ Hamilton (1-1)-- Bombers have 305 rushing yards so far in two games, but they've completed less than half their passes both games, with former Louisville QB Lefors under center. TiCats got waxed at home by Toronto in opener, then went out west and shocked Lions as 13-point underdog. Favorites are 2-6 vs spread in CFL this season.
BRITISH COLUMBIA (0 - 2) at EDMONTON (1 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 4-3 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Friday, July 17
TORONTO (1 - 1) at CALGARY (0 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 3-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 3-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Saturday, July 18
MONTREAL (2 - 0) at SASKATCHEWAN (2 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 128-97 ATS (+21.3 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 128-97 ATS (+21.3 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 86-52 ATS (+28.8 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 117-87 ATS (+21.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in July games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG (1 - 1) at HAMILTON (1 - 1)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 5-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 6-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. EDMONTON
British Columbia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
British Columbia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Edmonton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia
Edmonton is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against British Columbia
Friday, July 17
TORONTO vs. CALGARY
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
Calgary is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Calgary is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Saturday, July 18
MONTREAL vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Montreal is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
Montreal is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Montreal
Saskatchewan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
WINNIPEG vs. HAMILTON
Winnipeg is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Hamilton is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Dunkel Index
BC at Edmonton
The Lions look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is coming off a 50-16 defeat at Montreal and is just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS loss. BC is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: BC (+4 1/2).
BC at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: BC 107.163; Edmonton 106.025
Dunkel Line: BC by 1; 55 1/2
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 4 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: BC (+4 1/2); Over
FRIDAY, JULY 17
Toronto at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 105.289; Calgary 108.944
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 3 1/2; 53 1/2
Vegas Line: Calgary by 7 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+7 1/2); Under
SATURDAY, JULY 18
Montreal at Saskatchewan
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 121.326; Saskatchewan 112.910
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 8 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Montreal by 4 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-4 1/2); Over
Winnipeg at Hamilton
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 110.398; Hamilton 103.238
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 7; 56 1/2
Vegas Line: Winnipeg by 1; 54
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-1); Over
BC, Edmonton heat up CFL
By SBGGlobal.com
British Columbia Lions (0-2) at Edmonton Eskimos (1-1)
SBG Global Opening Line: Eskimos -4.5 , Total 53
The British Columbia Lions will be trying to avoid their first 0-3 start since 2002 when they travel to Edmonton to face the Eskimos on Thursday. "It's time for people to be accountable," B.C. quarterback Buck Pierce said, "We have some veteran players that aren't playing up to their potential.”
SBG Global reports that early CFL Betting has the public taking Eskimos at Home.
The Lions may have a tough time getting their first win considering Edmonton will want to redeem themselves from last week’s embarrassing 50-16 loss to Montreal. "You take a loss like that and it makes you want to come back and work harder," said Edmonton slotback Fred Stamps. "You want to practice harder and just be prepared for the next week." Stamps knows that B.C. is a dangerous team that will be ready on Thursday. "I don't play attention to their record too much," he said. "This is a professional league. You can come out and lose the first two games and win the next five."
The Lions were 0-2 last season but then won four of their next five games. "There's a sense of urgency but I don't think it's a sense of panic," said B.C. slotback Geroy Simon, "We have a lot of veterans on this team that have been 0-2, as recently as last year. It's not a sense we are panicking. We know we have a good team. We just need to go out and play with that good intent and that good intensity."
The Lions made some changes this as they released left tackle Walter Stith and receiver Ryan Grice-Mullen will be replaced d in the starting lineup by Rufus Skillern. "If the changes send a message, so be it," said head coach Wally Buono. "We're trying to improve.” The Lions will play the game without veteran kicker Paul McCallum who is out with a knee injury. Rookie Sean Whyte will take over the job this week.
SBG Global Current Line: Eskimos -4.5 , Total 53
Here are the CFL Betting stats for Thursday’s game. The Lions are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. the West. The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Edmonton.
The Eskimos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Over is 8-3 in the Eskimos last 11 home games. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the two teams.
Stamps look for first win of year
By SBGGlobal.com
Toronto Argonauts (1-1) at Calgary Stampeders (0-2)
Friday, 9:00 pm Eastern – TSN
SBG Global Opening Line: Calgary - 7, Total 54
The defending Grey Cup champion Calgary Stampeders have started the season 0-2 for the first time since 2003. While there is no need to panic yet, the Stamps really need a win this week against Toronto. This is the third straight Eastern matchup for Calgary. The Stampeders swept the Argos last season, winning 34-4 at home and 44-16 in Toronto. They are 7-3 in their last 10 home games against Toronto.
SBG Global reports that early CFL Betting has the public taking Calgary at Home.
Calgary’s offense has struggled this season after leading the league last season. QB Henry Burris passed for 247 yards but had three interceptions last week. Nik Lewis is the only Calgary receiver that is done anything so far this season as he ranks in the Top 10 in the league.
The Calgary defense has been no better than the offense. They have given up more than 40 points in two straight weeks. That is something they didn’t do at all last season. When Calgary doesn’t play defense they don’t win. They are 0-10-1 since 2004 in games in which they have given up 40 points or more. Calgary has had all kinds of trouble stopping the run as they are last in the league. They gave up 143 yards rushing last week to Winnipeg.
Toronto is led on offense by QB Kerry Joseph and running back Jamal Robertson who leads the CFL after two weeks of action with 214 yards.
Here are the CFL Betting stats for Friday’s game. The Argonauts are 1-5-2 ATS in their last eight games in July. The Argonauts are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Calgary.
The Stampeders are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The Stampeders are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Stampeders are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games in July.
The Under is 4-0 in the Argonauts last four road games. The Under is 37-15 in the Argonauts last 52 Friday games.
SBG Global Current Line: Calgary - 7, Total 55
The Over is 6-0 in the Stampeders last six Friday games. The Over is 4-0 in the Stampeders last four games in July. The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Calgary between the two teams.