CFL Week 3 Betting Breakdown
By: Steve Makinen
The first two weeks of the 2010 Canadian Football League season have been dominated by underdogs, as three of the four favorites in each week not only failed to cover the pointspread, but lost outright as well. Another four games are on tap for this weekend. Let’s take a quick look at the lines courtesy of Bookmaker.com, and the key betting info for each contest.
Friday, 7/16/2010
WINNIPEG at HAMILTON 7:00 PM
Line: Hamilton by 3.5, Total: 54
Winnipeg is averaging a scintillating 41.5 PPG and 507.5 YPG on offense in its first two contests but unfortunately has just one win to show for it. New quarterback Buck Pierce has been everything head coach Paul LaPolice could ask for in his first two games with the team. Still, the Blue Bombers are stinging from the late loss to Toronto last week, a game in which they were favored by 10-1/2 points. In this divisional tilt, that upset loss leads to a powerful FoxSheets system for Friday’s tilt:
Play On - Any team (WINNIPEG) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite. (28-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 2*)
Hamilton is one of two teams still in search of a first win and has to be concerned that it gave up 502 yards of offense to Pierce and Winnipeg in the season opener. This sets up a nice revenge spot of the Ti-Cats, perhaps negating the earlier system:
HAMILTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 38 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HAMILTON 28.2, OPPONENT 23.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Including the 49-29 win two weeks ago at home, Winnipeg is on a 5-2 SU & ATS run in the head-to-head series with Hamilton and the last three games have sailed over the posted total. The StatFox Power Line indicates that Hamilton should be favored by 6 points in this one.
MONTREAL at BRITISH COLUMBIA 10:00 PM
Line: TBD
Montreal and British Columbia hook up for a battle of 1-1 teams Friday night in Vancouver. The Alouettes are expected to be a small favorite when the line gets released. Oddsmakers are awaiting the status of Lions’ QB Casey Printers, who left last Saturday’s loss to Saskatchewan with an injury. He is listed as questionable so there’s a good chance he will be able to go.
This will be the first time these teams have met since Montreal hammered B.C. 56-19 in the West Division Final last November. Still, that rout aside, this has been a very close series over the years. In fact, for as good as Montreal was in 2009, the Lions handed the Alouettes one of their three regular season losses last year and swept both meetings against the pointspread.
B.C.’s rushing attack has been the best in the CFL thus far this season in terms of average gain, 8.3 yards per attempt. At the same time, Montreal is allowing a league worst 7.8 yards per rush. In fact, the Alouettes are the league’s worst defense in several categories, including points allowed, yards passing and yards per pass attempt. That is a scary proposition for a team expected to be playing as a road favorite.
Saturday, 7/17/2010
EDMONTON at SASKATCHEWAN 4:00 PM
Line: Saskatchewan by 7, Total: 56
Saskatchewan is arguably the league’s best team right now, and they’ll play their second home game of the season in NFL Network’s Game of the Week on Saturday afternoon. The Roughriders are 2-0 on the season, having scored 91 points. Quarterback Darian Durant is arguably the league MVP after the first two games, as he leads a balanced offensive attack gaining a phenomenal 9.1 yards per play, including 9.9 per pass. The hot start is nothing new for the Roughriders:
SASKATCHEWAN is 40-18 ATS (+20.2 Units) in July games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 27.3, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 2*)
Edmonton is the league’s biggest disappointment to date having lost both of its games by double-digits. The Eskimos are actually outgaining opponents by 45 YPG but have turned the ball over five times while only forcing one turnover defensively.
This game boasts the highest total of the week, 56 points, but even still, most trends seem to be pointing to a shootout, including…
SASKATCHEWAN is 73-42 OVER (+26.8 Units) in home games since 1996. The average score was SASKATCHEWAN 28.3, OPPONENT 25.6 - (Rating = 1*)
WINNIPEG (1 - 1) at HAMILTON (0 - 2)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 5-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 5-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL (1 - 1) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 1)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON (0 - 2) at SASKATCHEWAN (2 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 140-104 ATS (+25.6 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 140-104 ATS (+25.6 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 127-94 ATS (+23.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 40-18 ATS (+20.2 Units) in July games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-3 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-3 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Hamilton
Winnipeg is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Hamilton
Hamilton is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Winnipeg
Hamilton is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
MONTREAL vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Montreal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of British Columbia's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games
EDMONTON vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Edmonton is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Edmonton's last 9 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games
Saskatchewan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
This Weekend's Best CFL Bets
By Charles-André Marchand
Hamilton Tiger Cats at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-3.5, 54.5)
This is a rematch from Week 1, when the Bombers, led by their new quarterback Buck Pierce, rolled over the Tiger Cats in Hamilton.
They had seven sacks on Kevin Glenn in that game. In order to remove pressure from Glenn Friday, running back DeAndra Cobb must get the ball more often and make the most of it. After two games he only has 20 carries and 59 yards rushing.
The Tiger Cats did give a scare to the Calgary Stampeders last week in a game that coach Marcel Bellefeuille called the worst loss he endured since he took the helm of the Tiger Cats in 2008.
This week, Winnipeg must keep a close eye on Marcus Thigpen who, two games in his CFL career, has already scored touchdowns in four different ways: kick return, punt return, missed field goal and pass reception. He now needs to score on a rushing play to become the first one in the history of this league to find the endzone in five different ways in a single season.
Winnipeg will play this one without safety Ian Logan, who is nursing a hamstring injury. Brady Browne, a former player of the University of Manitoba Bison will get his first career start in front of family and friends. Defensive tackle Dorian Smith will also be out with a knee injury.
The Bombers should win but don’t expect the Tiger Cats to make it as easy on them as in Week 1.
Pick: Winnipeg
Montreal Alouettes at B.C. Lions (+5.5, 54)
Thanks to the magic of Anthony Calvillo and the offensive genius of coach Marc Trestman, the Alouettes managed to avoid a second loss in a row last week in Edmonton with a spectacular comeback victory over the Eskimos. That win was good for confidence according to some players.
Playing in Vancouver is never easy for the Alouettes, especially not after a short week. Montreal hasn’t won in B.C. since 2000. But this game won’t be played in the cavernous B.C. Place but outdoors at Empire Field.
The Alouettes have other reasons to worry in Week 3. Montreal’s defense continued to show weaknesses that must be a serious concern for an organization that believes it can repeat as Grey Cup champions. They just can’t seem to stop the long ball, with the secondary having surrendered 821 passing yards in two games.
With the Lions QB Casey Printers back from the quad injury that prevented him from playing in the second half of last week’s loss in Regina, the secondary of the Alouettes could be shredded once more.
Pick: B.C.
Edmonton Eskimos at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-7, 56.5)
The Eskimos are winless after two awful games played at home where they found ingenious ways to shoot themselves in the foot. And now they need to find a replacement to linebacker Mark Restelli, who suffered a knee injury that has got his name on the nine-game injured list.
In a merciless Western Division, the Eskimos can’t afford a third lost in a row. Turnovers have proven costly to the Esks in the first two games, especially against Montreal where bad interceptions and dropped balls have turn a sure win in crushing defeat.
Ricky Ray is still one of the best quarterbacks in Canadian football, but he can’t be expected to win solely on vertical plays. He needs to hand the ball to RB Arkee Whitlock more often and rely on Kamau Peterson and Kelly Campbell to create big plays out of short accurate passes.
Roughriders quarterback Darian Durant has started the season by out-dueling Montreal’s Anthony Calvillo and followed that with a flawless performance against B.C. He already has 733 passing yards after two games - the most in the CFL.
Who wants to bet against these Riders? They will most likely be the only undefeated team in the CFL after Week 3 and Rider Nation will start dreaming of another trip to the Big Game.
Pick: Saskatchewan