CFL Betting Recap - Week 4
VegasInsider.com
League Betting Notes
Favorites went 4-0 straight up in Week 4
Favorites went 4-0 against the spread in Week 4
Home teams notched a 3-1 record in Week 4
The 'over' went 3-1 in Week 4
Team Betting Notes
Saskatchewan (4-0) continued to roll right along, as they drummed visiting Hamilton (1-3) by a 37-0 score. The Roughriders have allowed a league-low 67 points (16.8 ppg) through the first four weeks.
The East Division has been outclassed by the West Division to this point, but Toronto (2-2) appears to be the class of the East. The Argonauts hit the road and scored an impressive 35-19 win at Winnipeg (1-3), moving into sole possession of first place. The Argos, who have 118 points (29.5 ppg) through the first four games, are the only team in the East with more than 91 total points scored.
The BC Lions (3-1) and Calgary (3-1) kept Saskatchewan within one-game in the standings, as each team scored double-digit victories at home in Week 4.
Montreal (1-3) might have lost in Calgary, but they were part of the week's highest scoring game. The Alouettes and Stampeders combined for 65 points.
Edmonton (1-3) fell for a second straight week to BC, and they have now lost three of four games to start the season. In their three losses, the Eskimos are averaging just 14.0 ppg, and they have managed 18.0 ppg overall, making them the CFL's lowest scoring team.
The West is where bets are won. Saskatchewan is 4-0 ATS, while BC and Calgary are each 3-1 ATS. Hamilton, in the East Division, has failed to cover in each of their four games.
CFL Betting Notes - Week 5
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The new CFL season is only four weeks old and the balance of power in the league has already shifted to the West Division with a combined straight up record of 11-5 as opposed to a combined 5-11 record in the East.
Last Friday night, Toronto beat Winnipeg 35-19 as a 3½-point road favorite in an East Division matchup but the following day Calgary stormed past Montreal 38-27 as a 7½-point home favorite in an inter-divisional showdown. British Columbia went on to hammer Edmonton 31-21 as a nine-point home favorite in this past Saturday’s second game.
Sunday’s game was another lopsided win for the West with Saskatchewan remaining undefeated on the year by posting a 37-0 shutout of Hamilton as a 7½-point favorite at home. The West is now a perfect 6-0 SU in inter-division matchups against the East this season.
The following is a brief betting preview for Week 5 of the CFL regular season with the opening pointspread and ‘over/under’ lines.
Thursday, July 25
Edmonton Eskimos vs. Montreal Alouettes
Point-spread: Montreal -5
Total: 48.5
Edmonton’s loss to BC on Saturday in the back-end of a home-and-home series dropped its overall record to 1-3 both SU and against the spread. Its only win of the year was a 30-20 victory over Hamilton in Week 2 as a seven-point road underdog. The Eskimos have given-up the second most points in the West while scoring the fewest.
The Alouettes continue to struggle on offense as the loss of former head coach Marc Trestman to the NFL could be taking its toll. Montreal has now lost its last three games to fall to 1-3 SU and ATS on the year. The total has stayed UNDER in two of its last three games. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions in the first four games.
Montreal has won eight of the last nine meetings SU and is 7-2 ATS. It is a perfect 3-0 SU in the last three meetings at home including a tight 27-25 victory last October as a five-point favorite. The total ended as a PUSH on a closing line of 52 in that contest after going OVER in the previous two meetings.
ESPN2 will provide national coverage of this game at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Friday, July 26
Calgary Stampeders vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Point-spread: Calgary -4
Total: 56
Calgary is averaging 31.3 points a game which is the second-most in the CFL, but its defense has also allowed an average of 27.3 points in its first four games. The net result is a 3-1 mark both SU and ATS with the total going OVER in three of the four games. Quarterback Drew Tate remains questionable with a lingering arm injury, but Kevin Glenn has done a good job in relief.
The Blue Bombers have some injury concerns of their own with quarterback Buck Pierce listed as ‘doubtful’ with an abdominal strain. Last Friday’s loss to Toronto dropped them to 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in two of their last three games.
The Stampeders bring a seven-game SU winning streak over Winnipeg into this Friday’s matchup. However, they are just 3-5-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Calgary covered the spread in both games last season and the total has gone OVER in five of the last eight meetings in this series.
Saturday, July 27
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -4
Total: 56
The Roughriders will put their four-game winning streak both SU and ATS on the line this Saturday night. This followed a five-game SU losing streak (0-4-1 ATS) to close-out the 2012 season. The total has gone OVER in three of their first four games this season and they lead the CFL in scoring with a total of 151 points (37.8 PPG).
Hamilton is 1-3 SU on the year and it has failed to cover in all four games. It also failed to score a single point in the first game of this home-and-home series this past Sunday after averaging 26.3 points in its first three contests this season. The Tiger-Cats are now the lowest scoring team in the East Division while allowing the most points of any team in the CFL.
Saskatchewan has now won five of the last seven meetings SU and is also 5-2 ATS over the same stretch of games. The total stayed UNDER the 59½-point line in last Sunday’s game and it has stayed UNDER in three of the last five meetings between the two. One of the teams in this series has scored 30 points or more in six of the last seven meetings.
Tuesday, July 30
British Columbia Lions vs. Toronto Argonauts
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF
BC will get an extended break into early next week after this past Saturday’s win over Edmonton which should go a long way towards getting a few of its banged-up players off the current injury list. The Lions have won their last three games both SU and ATS after a disappointing 44-32 loss to Calgary on opening day as 3½-point road underdogs.
Toronto quarterback Ricky Ray leads the CFL in total passing yards with 1,203 while completing 75.4 percent of his throws. He has also tossed eight touchdowns against zero interceptions. The defending Grey Cup champs are 2-2 SU and ATS on the year with the total going OVER in three of the four games. Unfortunately Ray left last week’s game early with a knee injury and his status is ‘questionable’ for Sunday, which is why there is no early opening number on this matchup. Also injured last week for the Argos was running back Chad Kackert, who is ‘questionable’ as well for Week 5.
BC has won the last six meetings SU including a 24-16 victory on July 4 as a seven-point home favorite. It is 5-1 ATS during this run and the total has stayed UNDER in five of the last seven games. The Lions’ defense has allowed the second-fewest points in the league this season while the Argonauts come in as the highest scoring team in the East.
Thursday, July 25
EDMONTON (1 - 3) at MONTREAL (1 - 3) - 7/25/2013, 7:30 PM
MONTREAL is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 4-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Friday, July 26
CALGARY (3 - 1) at WINNIPEG (1 - 3) - 7/26/2013, 8:00 PM
WINNIPEG is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 2-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Saturday, July 27
SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 0) at HAMILTON (1 - 3) - 7/27/2013, 7:30 PM
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 48-25 ATS (+20.5 Units) in July games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Tuesday, July 30
BRITISH COLUMBIA (3 - 1) at TORONTO (2 - 2) - 7/30/2013, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Edmonton's last 11 games
Edmonton is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Montreal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
CALGARY vs. WINNIPEG
Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games on the road
Winnipeg is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Winnipeg is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games
SASKATCHEWAN vs. HAMILTON
Saskatchewan is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Hamilton
Saskatchewan is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
Hamilton is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of British Columbia's last 10 games when playing on the road against Toronto
British Columbia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
CFL Week 5
Edmonton (1-3) @ Montreal (1-3) -- Alouettes lost last three games, as offense struggles in first year without QB guru Trestman (new coach of Bears); Montreal led 24-0 last week in first quarter at Calgary, lost 38-27, biggest blown lead in CFL history. Als were outscored in second half of all four games (total of 59-33); they're 1-3 despite having turnover ratio of +6, a red flag. Montreal won last six series games, with five of six wins by 10+ points; Eskimos lost their last six visits here, by 36-10-34-17-23-2 points. All three Edmonton losses are by 10+ points. Over is 5-3-1 in last nine series games, 3-1 in Edmonton games.
Calgary (3-1) @ Winnipeg (1-3) -- Bombers allowed 38-35 points in losing both their home games this year, by 5-16 points; they're already -9 in turnovers, coughing ball up 12 times in four games. Stampeders won last seven series games, winning last three visits here by 3-1-11 points, with four of last five visits here going over total; Stamps split their two road games, scoring 21-22 points (they're scoring 41 ppg at home). Calgary has injury issues at QB; SMU alum Mitchell was third Stamp QB to play last week, as they won 38-27 after trailing 24-0 in first quarter. Road team covered all four Winnipeg games this year.
Saskatchewan (4-0) @ Hamilton (1-3) -- Roughriders (-7.5) crushed Hamilton 37-0 in last week's game at Taylor Field, Riders' 16th win in last 19 series games; they're 7-2 in last nine visits here (Hamilton, not Guelph), dogs covered four of last six series games, with five of last seven at Hamilton going over total. Riders are 4-0 this year, with all four wins by 11+ points; they're +7 in turnovers, +10 in sacks and run balll for 155.5 ypg. TiCats allowed 30+ points in all three losses; they're got only two takeaways in four games (-3)- Burris has already been sacked 16 times. In the NFL, this would be a trap game.
BC Lions (3-1) @ Toronto (2-2) -- Knee injury to Argo QB Ray has this game off board; even with Ray, Toronto (+7) lost 24-16 in Week 2 at BC Place, as Lions outrushed Argos 160-34, outgained them 417-249 (led 14-3 at half). BC has beaten Toronto six games in a row and 16 of last 17, winning seven of last eight visits here, last two 29-16/18-9. Six of last eight series games stayed under total, eight of last nine played here. Toronto scored 39-35 points in its two wins, 16-28 in its losses; Lions allowed average of 13.3 ppg last three weeks, in wins by 8-14-10 points. CFL home dogs are 1-3 vs spread this year.
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Eskimos at Alouettes: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Edmonton Eskimos at Montreal Alouettes (-5, 48.5)
The Montreal Alouettes are scrambling for a way to bounce back after blowing a 24-0 lead and suffering their third straight defeat. Perhaps they will find it Thursday when they host the Edmonton Eskimos - a team the Alouettes have not lost to since July 30, 2009. Montreal is 6-0 against Edmonton over the last three years but has not looked like the same dominant team under new coach Dan Hawkins, who faces issues with consistency on offense and discipline on defense.
The Eskimos should be happy to head east again after dropping back-to-back games against the BC Lions to fall to 0-3 against West Division opponents. Edmonton’s only victory came in Week 2, when it defeated the Hamilton Tiger-Cats 30-20 in Guelph, Ont. The biggest problem for the Eskimos has been their offense, which has produced a league-low 72 points with starting quarterback Mike Reilly (56-for-100 passing, 644 yards), whose job is likely on the line.
ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (1-3, 1-3 ATS): Reilly has been effective on the ground, running for 151 yards and one touchdown on 19 carries. Backup quarterback Jonathan Crompton looked good filling in for Reilly in the late stages of Week 4, finishing 4-for-5 for 76 yards and a touchdown. Crompton is 10-for-16 in his first CFL season and has yet to throw an interception. Linebackers JC Sherritt and Damaso Munoz lead Edmonton’s defense with 27 and 26 tackles, respectively.
ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (1-3, 1-3 ATS): Quarterback Anthony Calvillo is off to an uneven start, completing 76-of-129 passes and throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns (four). Calvillo has connected with slotback S.J. Green for 307 yards and three of his four touchdown tosses, while only two other receivers - slotbacks Arland Bruce and Jamel Richardson - have more than 100 receiving yards. Linebacker Chip Cox has two sacks and an interception to add to his league-leading 36 tackles, while safety Kyries Hebert has a team-leading five sacks.
TRENDS:
* Eskimos are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Eskimos are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Montreal.
* Eskimos are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Alouettes are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Hebert, living up to his “Angry Bird” nickname, was flagged twice for unnecessary roughness in Week 4, extending key drives in the early stages of the Calgary Stampeders’ 38-27 comeback victory.
2. Edmonton RB Hugh Charles leads the team with 454 total combined yards.
3. The Alouettes have not lost a home game against the Eskimos since Sept. 23, 2007, but are 0-2 playing at home in Molson Stadium to begin the season.
Stampeders at Blue Bombers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Calgary Stampeders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+5, 48.5)
The Calgary Stampeders emerged from their record-setting comeback against the Montreal Alouettes with their third-string quarterback at the helm. Bo Levi Mitchell may see his first career CFL start when the Stampeders visit the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Friday. Starting quarterback Drew Tate suffered an injury to his throwing arm in Week 2 and backup Kevin Glenn left last week’s game in the third quarter with an injury - also to his throwing arm - leaving Mitchell to toss two touchdown passes and seal the 38-27 victory.
Winnipeg also has issues with the health of its quarterback as Buck Pierce is questionable to start this week after being hit hard in the abdomen during a 35-19 loss to the Toronto Argonauts. Pierce, who has thrown five interceptions and two touchdowns, will likely be replaced by backup Justin Goltz, who completed 13-of-15 passes for 170 yards in the second half against Toronto. The Blue Bombers would not elaborate on the severity of Pierce’s injury, which adds more uncertainty to an offense that has not scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 1.
ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (3-1, 3-1 ATS): Running back Jon Cornish had 109 yards and one touchdown on 11 carries against the Alouettes and is second in the league with 413 rushing yards, behind Saskatchewan Roughriders running back Kory Sheets. No other player has more than 300. Cornish, who led the league with 1,457 rushing yards last year, was limited to 42 yards against the Roughriders in Week 2 - the only time he has been held to fewer than 100 combined yards this season. Defensive lineman Charleston Hughes leads Calgary with four sacks but missed last week’s game because of a wrist injury.
ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (1-3, 2-2 ATS): Pierce is one of many players questionable to play Friday. Wide receiver Chris Matthews and defensive tackles Bryant Turner and JT Gilmore are all suffering from various ailments. Defensive end Alex Hall has six of Winnipeg’s 19 sacks, including the only one against Toronto. Linebacker Henoc Muamba leads the team with 22 tackles and added a sack, but the potential loss of Turner could leave a big hole that the third-year tackle - who is second on the team with three sacks - would need to fill. Running back Chad Simpson was limited to 50 rushing yards last week and is fourth in the league with 256 through four games.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Winnipeg.
* Stampeders are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Winnipeg.
* Stampeders are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
* Blue Bombers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Stampeders are second in the CFL Power Rankings (behind Saskatchewan) following their home-and-home sweep of the Alouettes. The Blue Bombers are seventh.
2. Winnipeg is the only East Division team not to face a West Division opponent yet.
3. Calgary K Rene Paredes still has a shot at reaching the CFL record for 30 straight made field goals after officials decided that last week’s blocked kick happened behind the line of scrimmage, ruling it a fumble instead of a missed kick. Paredes, named Special Teams Player of the Week, has made 29 consecutive field goals.
Roughriders at Ti-Cats: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+3.5, 55.5)
Quarterback Darian Durant and the Saskatchewan Roughriders put on their most dominant performance of the season in a 37-0 victory over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats at home last week. The Roughriders travel to Guelph, Ont., on Saturday looking to keep their perfect start alive in a rematch against Hamilton. Durant, who was named Offensive Player of the Week, threw for 347 yards and four touchdowns, while Saskatchewan’s defense registered five sacks as the Roughriders showed no signs of slowing down.
Hamilton can find some positives from last week, most notably its ability to contain the Roughriders' offense early in the contest. Saskatchewan did not score a point in the first quarter and the Tiger-Cats run defense limited Roughriders running back Kory Sheets to 36 yards in the first half. Quarterback Henry Burris had his worst start of the season, however, and Hamilton’s league-worst running game was held to 16 total rushing yards, something coach Kent Austin will have to address if he wants to avoid another blanking.
ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (4-0): Sheets rushed for 130 yards last week, bringing his season total to a league-leading 572. Wide receiver Rob Bagg continued his comeback from a devastating injury two seasons ago with two touchdown catches and 125 receiving yards last week to earn Canadian Player of the Week honours. Linebacker Renauld Williams, who was released by Hamilton after last season, was named Defensive Player of the Week and is leading Saskatchewan’s defense with five sacks and one interception, which he returned 19 yards for a touchdown.
ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (1-3): Despite his poor showing last week, Burris is second in the league with 1,115 passing yards, while also leading Hamilton with 123 rushing yards. Wide receivers Bakari Grant (254 yards) and Greg Ellingson (237) are Burris’ preferred targets. The Tiger-Cats have allowed a league-worst 126 points as only four defensive players have 10 or more tackles and the secondary has yet to intercept a pass, leading Hamilton to release linebacker Markeith Knowlton and defensive back James Patrick and sign linebacker Brandon Isaac, who was recently released by Toronto.
TRENDS:
* Roughriders are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 meetings.
* The over is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings in Hamilton.
* The Tiger-Cats are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in the Roughriders' last five games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Roughriders are first in the CFL Power Rankings, while Hamilton is last.
2. The Tiger-Cats are 0-2 against West Division opponents.
3. Austin, who was quarterback for Saskatchewan when the Roughriders won the Grey Cup in 1989 and coach when they won it in 2007, spent five years coaching in the NCAA before returning to the CFL to lead the Tiger-Cats.
Lions at Argos: What Bettors Need to Know
Covers.com
B.C. Lions at Toronto Argonauts (5.5, 49.5)
The Toronto Argonauts might be without some key pieces on offense when they host the BC Lions on Tuesday. Toronto, which dropped a 24-16 decision at BC in Week 2, lost CFL leading passer Ricky Ray and running back Chad Kackert to knee injuries last week in a road win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Kackert, the leading rusher for the Argonauts, will miss at least a month while Ray is listed as day-to-day for the top team in the East Division.
Following a home-and-home sweep of the Edmonton Eskimos, the Lions have won three straight and have allowed just 40 points in that span after yielding 44 in their Week 1 loss to the Calgary Stampeders. Running back Andrew Harris is driving the offense with 296 yards and four touchdowns on the ground to go with 129 receiving yards and one touchdown reception. Lions quarterback Travis Lulay is enjoying a strong start to the season - with 974 passing yards, seven touchdown passes and only three interceptions.
ABOUT THE LIONS (3-1): Slotback Nick Moore appears to have taken the place of Geroy Simon in BC’s passing schemes. Moore, who had 449 receiving yards in his first two seasons, has caught 17 passes for 241 yards in 2013 - good for second on the team behind wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux. Lulay, who has 173 rushing yards on 19 carries, is on pace to surpass last year’s career high of 477 yards. First-year cornerback Cord Parks has a team-leading two interceptions and shares the club's top honours with 19 tackles. Linebacker Adam Bighill, who has missed two games due to an ankle injury, participated in drills with the starting defensive unit at practice on Friday.
ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (2-2): Toronto signed running back Chris Jennings to replace the injured Kackert. Jennings was released by the Montreal Alouettes last week after rushing for 29 yards on eight carries in one game. The Argonauts released veteran linebacker Brandon Isaac, leaving their defense under the leadership of linebacker Robert McCune (team-leading 27 tackles) and defensive end Jonathan Williams (team-leading two sacks). Slotback Chad Owens is tied with Montreal running back Noel Devine for the league lead with 802 total combined yards.
TRENDS:
* Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* The over is 6-0 in Argonauts last six home games.
* The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Toronto.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Toronto is 0-2 against West Division opponents.
2. The Lions have scored 73 of their 104 points in the second half.
3. Argonauts backup QB Zach Collaros, who will likely start if Ray is sidelined, has completed 7-of-10 passes for 112 yards in spot duty this season. He also has 24 rushing yards and two touchdowns.