CFL Week 5 News and Notes

Thursday, July 29

TORONTO vs. MONTREAL
Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
Toronto is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Montreal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Montreal is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

Friday, July 30

BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing Edmonton
British Columbia is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Edmonton
Edmonton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against British Columbia
Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against British Columbia

Saturday, July 31

HAMILTON vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 7 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Saskatchewan's last 8 games when playing Hamilton

WINNIPEG vs. CALGARY
Winnipeg is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

Week 5 CFL games

Toronto (3-1) @ Montreal (3-1)-- Both sides won last three games, with Argos underdog in all three wins, winning by 2-3-4 points- they've run ball for 160.7 ypg in last three games, protecting defense that gave up an average of 506.5 ypg in two road games. Als are +6 in turnovers (plus in all four games); they outscored last three foes 59-18 in second half. Als have only three giveaways, Toronto has ten already (+2).

This Week's Best CFL Bets
By Charles-André Marchand

Thursday

Toronto Argonauts at Montreal Alouettes (-10, 53)

Who would have thought that early bragging rights in the East Division would be at stake in this matchup?

“If you had asked me to bet on that I probably would have lost a lot of money” admitted DE Anwar Stewart from the Montreal Alouettes with a chuckle.

The Alouettes won their last seven games against the Argos, and the last six were decided by 20 points or more. But with Toronto on a three-game winning streak, the Als know they can’t take this one lightly. Toronto’s Cory Boyd is the hottest running back in the CFL right now and at 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds, he won’t go down easy.

“He is big, he is quick and he is smart,” said Safety Etienne Boulay. “But we will be ready for him”.

The bad news for Argos fans is that the Montreal defence is back to playing its A-game. If the Als manage to slow down Boyd, they will win. It’s that simple.

The Alouettes will be seeking their 11th consecutive regular season win at home. The last time they lost at Percival Molson Stadium was against Winnipeg on October 29, 2008. The last time Toronto beat Montreal was almost a year earlier, in October 2007.

Pick: Montreal

Friday

B.C. Lions at Edmonton Eskimos (-1, 53)

The Eskimos are again in a must-win situation after losing four in a row. Their president Rick LeLacheur warned that heads would roll if they didn’t start winning soon.

The Eskimos should play like their lives depend on it at home against a B.C. team that must rely on backup Travis Lulay under center. But echoes from their dressing room are suggesting they already developed bad habits in practices.

After a short stint with the Alouettes, former Eskimo Kevin Challenger stated that Marc Trestman gets more work done in an hour practice than Richie Hall gets from his Edmonton team in a two hour session. That says a lot.

You can argue that the Eskimos are a much better team than their 0-4 record tells. But, even with Lulay at QB, the Lions just have a better team. Expect them to pound the turf relentlessly against the worst rushing defence in the CFL with the likes of Jamal Robertson and Jamal Lee.

The Eskimos hoped to be part of the Grey Cup they will host in November. Now it looks like they won’t even be in the playoff picture.

Pick: B.C.

Saturday

Hamilton Tiger Cats at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-7.5, 54.5)

The Roughriders will want to rebound from their 40-20 loss to Calgary after winning their first three games of the 2010 season. Riders coach Ken Miller still can’t gut watching that game.

“I can’t look at it clinically yet” he told reporters Tuesday.

Uncharacteristically, the Riders have the worst defence in the CFL. The question now is: how will they stop the third-best passing team in the league?

The Riders are third in the league in scoring with an average of 33.8 point per game. They also surrendered a league-high 32.2 points per game, so this game should be a gun fight.

Quarterback Darian Durant got rocked way too much by the Stampeders’ pass rushers last week, although, he was only officially sacked twice. His offensive line must do a better job of giving him time in the pocket.

It will be an interesting matchup, but the Riders should prevail.

Pick: Saskatchewan

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Calgary Stampeders (-7, 57)

The Stampeders finally looked like a championship team again against the Eskimos last week. And it was without star receiver Ken-Yon Rambo, who claims he will be back in action against the Blue Bombers.

Winnipeg will also welcome a star player back. Safety Ian Logan seems to have recovered from a neck injury suffered during a pre-camp workout. Logan has been an anchor for the Bombers over the past few years.

But the Bombers will once again have to rely on quarterback Steven Jyles with Buck Pierce still injured. Jyles did well against Edmonton in Week 4, with 267 yards passing, 63 yards rushing and three touchdowns - two on run plays and another one through the air. But he also gave up two interceptions.

That’s not bad, but is it good enough to match Henry Burris and the Stampeders offence? Blue Bombers defensive back LaVar Glover summarized it best, “If you let Henry Burris get hot, he’s going to rip you apart”.

That’s exactly what will happen Saturday.

Pick: Calgary

CFL Betting Preview
By Bodog

Four weeks into the young 2010 CFL season, the Toronto Argonauts have already matched their 2009 total of three wins. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers, the other team to fail to make the playoffs in ’09, finished last season second only to Toronto in scoring futility; this season, they are tied for first in scoring. It’s been a wild first month, and we’re just getting started; what excitement will Week 5 have in store?

Friday: British Columbia Lions at Edmonton Eskimos (9:00 p.m. ET)

The Lions (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) will once again turn to QB Travis Lulay Friday night as Casey Printers continues to nurse a knee injury that will force him into the third-string role. Last week, the Lions looked to be on their way to a victory over Toronto up 20-10 with less than seven minutes to go, but Toronto capped off the comeback with an interception return to win it 24-20. RB Jamal Robertson had two touchdowns last week, and might get more carries this week, averaging 7.4 yards per carry this season. The Lions’ only win this season came against Edmonton in Week 1, 25-10, winning outright as 4-point underdogs

Edmonton (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) is the CFL’s only winless team, and will try to remedy that this week in their rematch against the Lions. The closest they’ve come to a win was in Week 3 against Saskatchewan, leading 20-13 at the end of the third quarter but eventually losing 24-20 (covering the spread at +7). Edmonton hopes to get an emotional boost from the return of DL Adam Braidwood, who will be making his first start in two years.

The first time the two teams met, the total was comfortably UNDER the 54.5 line. British Columbia’s games have gone UNDER in three of four contests, while Edmonton’s games have split 2-2.

Saturday: Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Saskatchewan Roughriders (6:30 p.m. ET)

Hamilton (1-3 SU and ATS) enters Saturday’s game tied with Edmonton for the worst record ATS in the CFL. Currently sitting in last place in the East, Hamilton has had great play from quarterback Kevin Glenn (1090 yards, five touchdowns, one interception), but has not been able to get DeAndra Cobb and the running game going. Hamilton’s 71.5 rushing yards per game ranks worst in the league.

The Roughriders (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS), meanwhile, have the league’s best rushing attack, averaging 178 yards per game. RB Wes Cates has 400 yards and three touchdowns in 57 carries this season. The passing game has been strong as well, with QB Darian Durant leading the league with 1,325 passing yards. Saskatchewan will be heavily favored this week despite dropping their first game of the season last week at Calgary, 40-20.

The Tiger-Cats have seen three of their first four games go UNDER, while the offensively stacked Roughriders have gone OVER in three of their four contests.

Saturday: Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Calgary Stampeders (9:30 p.m. ET)

The Blue Bombers (2-2 SU and ATS) will play away from home for just the second time this season when they take on Calgary on Saturday night. The first time they didn’t fare well, falling 28-7 at Hamilton as 4-point underdogs. It was an uncharacteristically low score for Winnipeg, whose 137 points scored this season are tied with Montreal for the league’s highest. With QB Buck Pierce still out with a knee injury, Steven Jyles will start his second straight game.

Calgary (3-1 SU and ATS) is coming off of a huge home win over Saskatchewan last week, earning them a share of the Western Conference lead. WR Romby Bryant had seven catches for 116 yards and two touchdowns in the rout. The Stampeders are 2-0 ATS at home with that win and a win over Toronto in Week 1. Steven Jyles will have his work cut out for him trying to crack the Calgary defense, which has surrendered a league-best 85 points over the first four games of the season.

Winnipeg ranks first (with 341.5 per game) and Calgary ranks second (371.5 per game) in total yards surrendered this season. Despite their low yardage surrendered number, Winnipeg’s games have gone OVER in three of their four contests this year, while Calgary has split 2-2.

Surprising Argos 10-point dogs at Montreal
By: Steve Makinen

The Toronto Argonauts visit the Montreal Alouettes on Thursday as one of the most surprising stories of the young CFL season. At stake is a chance to claim sole possession of first place in the East Division. That might be the only reason to suspect a competitive game. Otherwise, most strength ratings, trends, and even the oddsmakers’ expect this to be a cakewalk for Montreal. Bookmaker.com lists the Alouettes as 10-point favorites. Can the Argos continue their unexpected surge or are the defending champs ready to put them in their place?

It was just last season when Toronto seemed destined for a lengthy rebuilding process, and an over-matched coaching staff lost the trust of its players and the control of a season. But the Argos have won three of their first four games in 2010 -- matching its total under the short-lived reign of coach Bart Andrus last year.

The Argos have won each of their last three games with a combination of stout defense and stellar special teams play -- the same kind of formula that delivered the franchise its last Grey Cup win, six years ago.

"We have a chance." offensive lineman Taylor Robertson said. "We believe. That's the difference."

Toronto rallied from a double-digit deficit to beat the B.C. Lions last week at Rogers Centre, nine days after squeaking out a 27-24 comeback win against the Calgary Stampeders. The Argos opened their run with a two-point win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Rookie running back Cory Boyd has established himself as the CFL's leading rusher, Chad Owens has been one of the league's most dynamic return men and only Calgary's defence has forced more turnovers. Boyd will be aiming to become the first Argos running back since Bill Symons in 1968 with four consecutive 100-yard games.

Those successes have helped to mask the struggles of first-year quarterback Cleo Lemon, whose offense ranks dead last in passing yards. Toronto is the only team in the league that has not thrown for at least 1,000 yards yet this season -- managing only 791.

In 2009, no team scored fewer points than the Argos, who were held below 20 points per game, on average. Toronto ranked last in rushing yards and second-last in passing yards. The team finished the season with a 3-15 record, missing the playoffs for the second straight year.

Andrus was fired in December, and the team officially announced it had hired Jim Barker two months later. The long-time CFL executive -- and former Argos head coach -- spent the rest of the winter rebuilding the team.

Toronto's new crew will certainly have a major test against the Alouettes. The defending Grey Cup champions have not lost a game at home since Oct. 29, 2008 and it was almost a year before that, Oct. 20, 2007, when Toronto last beat Montreal.

Since Toronto squeaked out that 16-9 win to salvage one game in the season series, the Argos have lost six straight games to the Alouettes by an average of a little more than 20 points.

According to oddsmakers and this week’s StatFox FoxSheet, bettors should expect much of the same on Thursday night. The StatFox Power Line shows that Montreal should be favored by about 21 points, rather than 10.

The Alouettes come in at 3-1, but unlike Toronto, who is being outscored by 1.3 PPG, are beating their opponents by an average of 8.5 PPG. That leads to a very significant trend going against the Argos:

# TORONTO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good teams - outscoring opponents by 5+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 16.7, OPPONENT 34.3 - (Rating = 1*)

Montreal has also been at its best against divisional foes during its recent run of success:

# MONTREAL is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MONTREAL 35.8, OPPONENT 18.9 - (Rating = 1*)

Most handicapping data seems to suggest a blowout, but momentum, confidence, and perhaps a bit of luck could be on the side of Toronto. We’ll see what wins out when the teams kickoff at 7:30 PM ET on Thursday night in Montreal.

Week 5 CFL Games

BC Lions (1-3) @ Edmonton (0-4)-- Lions were +3 in turnovers, sacked Ray five times in 25-10 win in season opener here (-4), but Lions are 0-3 since, losing last two games by four points each. Eskimos turned the ball over 10 times in four games (-6), are 0-2 at home, losing by 15-10 pts- they're aloing 160.8 rushing yards/game. Underdog is 4-0 vs spread this season in BC games.

Hamilton (1-3) @ Saskatchewan (3-1)-- TiCats allowed 49-37 points in losing two road games by 20-23 points; only one of their four games was decided by less than 20 points. Last three Hamilton games stayed under total. Roughriders lost first game last week; three of four Rider games went over. Saskatchewan gained at least 440 yards in every game so far this year. TiCats are 2-0 at home, beating Als by 3 in OT, Eskimos by 4.

Winnipeg (2-2) @ Calgary (3-1)-- Bombers scored 49-47 points in their two wins, 34-7 in losses; they were shut out in first half of only game on road (28-7 loss at Hamilton). Stampeders are 2-0 at home, winning 30-16 vs Argos (-13), 40-20 vs Roughriders (-1.5) last week. Over is 3-1 so far this year in Winnipeg games. Stamps have thrown eight INTs already in four games, but they ran ball for 247 yards last week in win over Riders.