CFL Week 6

Trend Sheet

Thursday, July 31

7:00 PM HAMILTON vs. MONTREAL
Hamilton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Hamilton is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games
Montreal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton
Montreal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton

10:00 PM BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. EDMONTON
British Columbia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing British Columbia
Edmonton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing British Columbia

Friday, August 1

7:00 PM WINNIPEG vs. TORONTO
Winnipeg is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Winnipeg is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

Saturday, August 2

8:00 PM SASKATCHEWAN vs. CALGARY
Saskatchewan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Saskatchewan is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Calgary is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Calgary is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games

CFL betting power poll: Week 6
By ALEX SMART

1: Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-0/1-0) (5-0 ATS) (LW: 1) Apparently, it doesn’t matter which quarterback is under centre for the defending champions. Even though the question in the Roughriders locker room was whether it would be Darian Durant or Marcus Crandell suiting up as the starting QB, third string signal-caller Stephen Jyles was the man of the hour. He led the Riders back from an eight-point deficit at the half, and not only won the game but covered the 5.5-point spread with the 28-22 victory.

Next up: Away @ Calgary (3-2)

2: British Columbia Lions (3-2/1-0) (2-3 ATS) (LW: 4) For the third straight week, the BC Lions knocked off an Eastern Division opponent. This time, Paul McCallum booted the game-winning field goal with 0:27 remaining to propel the Leos to victory. They failed to cover the six-point spread for their sports bettors, but their SU (straight up) victory was good enough to propel them up to the No. 2 spot in the Canadian Football Power Poll. Former Notre Dame QB Jarious Jackson had another strong game, throwing for 319 yards.

Next up: Away @ Edmonton (3-2)

3: Calgary Stampeders (3-2/0-1) (3-2 ATS) (LW: 2) Shame on the Stampeders for losing to Winnipeg after they benched Kevin Glenn. While many of the early CFL bettors were backing the Stamps, the sharps pushed the line from six points down to five at closing. That should’ve been the indicator of how the game was going to end. The defence, which we highlighted last week, let the Stamps down in Week 5, as backup QB Ryan Dinwiddie threw for a whopping 450 yards. They need to rebound in a hurry with both Saskatchewan and BC hovering above them in the poll.

Next up: Home vs. Saskatchewan (5-0)

4: Montreal Alouettes (2-3/0-1) (3-2 ATS) (LW: 3) It was another close call for Anthony Calvillo and the Alouettes in BC Place when they took on the Lions in Week 5 CFL action. Paul McCallum booted the game-winning field goal with 0:27 remaining to lock up the SU victory for the Lions. On the bright side, the Als became the first team this year to cover a spread without winning the game. They’re also the only Eastern Division team to cover a spread in the past three weeks. Fortunately for the East, CFL betting resumes with divisional play again this week.

Next up: Home vs. Hamilton (1-4)

5: Edmonton Eskimos (3-2/1-0) (3-1-1 ATS) (LW: 6) The Eskimos have quietly put up a pretty decent season. However, we’re not getting overly excited about a sloppy 19-13 win over Hamilton. However, we will admit that their 3-1-1 mark ATS is great for their CFL bettors. The Eskies will return to conference play over the next couple weeks. Then we’ll get to see if Ricky Ray and the gang are real Western Division contenders, or if they’re destined to fight with the other teams in the East for a cross-over spot.

Next up: Home vs. BC (3-2)

6: Toronto Argonauts (2-3/0-1) (1-3-1 ATS) (LW: 5) When you’re a contender for the Grey Cup, you can’t blow an eight-point halftime lead with the oppositions third string QB under centre. The defense was by no means stifling, giving up 18 points to Saskatchewan QB Stephen Jyles, but the real culprit was the offence that only scored four points the entire second half. Because of that, they lost the game outright and failed to cover as 5.5-point underdogs. If not for a 109-yard drive to beat Edmonton in the closing minute, Toronto would be 1-4 SU heading into Week 6 play. As it is, 2-3 isn’t acceptable and the Argos must improve if they’re to evolve into the Grey Cup contenders they were touted as being at the beginning of the season.

Next up: Home vs. Winnipeg (1-4)

7: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-4/1-0) (1-4 ATS) (LW: 8) What a difference a week can make. It wasn’t easy, but the Blue Bombers are off the schneid in the 2008 season after their 32-28 upset victory over Calgary. For a team that looked dead in the water at 0-4 SU & ATS, being the only triumphant Eastern Division team in Week 5 has to make head coach Doug Berry smile. Former Boise State QB Ryan Dinwiddie has to feel as though he’s earned the starting job since he threw for 450 yards in the victory. With games upcoming against their poor East rivals, Winnipeg can shoot from worst to first in no time.

Next up: Away @ Toronto (2-3)

8: Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-4/0-1) (1-4 ATS) (LW: 7) Another week, another disappointment for HC Charlie Taafe and the Ti-Cats. This time, they failed to cover as 2.5-point home underdogs against Edmonton. If Taafe can point to one positive for the black and gold, it’s that they’re still just a game off the pace for the top spot in the Eastern Division standings. They opened the year 1-1 against the East, and much like everyone else in the division, can make a move in a hurry over the next couple weeks.

Next up: Away @ Montreal (2-3)

Week 6 CFL games

Thursday, July 31

Hamilton (1-4) @ Montreal (2-3)-- Alouettes lost last three in a row, by 4-8-2 points; they scored 67 points in last two games, but waxed Hamilton on road in Week 1, 33-10 (+2); running ball for 188 yards, gaining just under seven yards/play. TiCats lost last three games by 5-27-6 points- both their road games went over total. TiCats were outgained by 204-149 yds last two wks.

BC Lions (3-2) @ Edmonton (3-2)-- Lions won last three games, all vs eastern teams, scoring 35 ppg- they scored 18-16 pts in their losses (both vs western teams), 27+ in wins. BC picked off 11 passes in last four games. Eskimos won three of its last four games, despite a -7 turnover ratio in those games- they allowed 34-35 points in their losses, an average of 24 ppg in wins.

Friday, August 1

Winnipeg (1-4) @ Toronto (2-3)-- Bombers passed for 450 yds last week in upset of Calgary, after not having 300+ in any of their first four games. Bombers are allowing 31.4 ppg. Argos led at half in Regina last week, lost for third time in last four games; they average 80.6 ypg in penalties. Three of last four Toronto games went over. Argos won 23-16 at Winnipeg in Week 1, as +3 turnover ratio negated Bombers' 367-230 edge in yardage.

Saturday, August 2

Saskatchewan (5-0) @ Calgary (3-2)-- Roughriders are winning despite revolving door at QB; they trailed Argos 18-10 at hal last week, rallied for a 28-22 home win. Stampeders allowed 19 points or less in all three wins, 34-32 in its losses; they've had 9+ penalties in all their games (71 ypg). Three of their last four games went over total. Riders are 5-0 against the spread, too.

CFL Week 6 betting previews and picks
By CHARLES-ANDRÉ MARCHAND

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-4) at Montreal Alouettes (2-3) (-10, O/U 52 1/2)

The Alouettes will host the Tiger-Cats with lots of concerns defensively with some injuries to Matthieu Proulx and Mark Estelle that will force coach Marc Trestman to rely on at least two rookies.

Paul Woldu will replace Estelle as a cornerback while Chris Smith will make his CFL debut as a safety. Good news for the Alouettes - the Tiger-Cats don’t have much of a passing game and they haven’t won against the Alouettes since November 2005.

It’s even worse when they play in Montreal, where their last win goes back to October 2002. That being said, it will be a showdown between two totally different styles of offenses.

Hamilton runs the ball a ton with running back Jesse Lumsden, who is the second best rusher in the CFL with 416 yard rushing behind Wes Cates of Saskatchewan. Cates has played one more game than Lumsden, though.

Bottom line, the Ti-Cats have the best running game in the league while the Als rely heavily on QB Anthony Calvillo’s passing game. The Alouettes should win this game especially at home, but don’t be shocked if this one is closer than the odds suggest.

Pick: Montreal -10

B.C. Lions (3-2) at Edmonton Eskimos (3-2) (+2, O/U 54)

Both teams show similar 3-2 records that tell a totally different story.

The Lions struggled and were a disappointment in their first two games while the Eskimos are a nice surprise so far this season. After losing to Calgary and Saskatchewan, the Lions bounced back over the poor Winnipeg Blue Bombers, whom they beat twice before winning a very close one against Montreal.

The Eskimos started the season with a whipping in Saskatchewan before winning at home against Calgary and Toronto. They lost at Toronto in Week 5, then won in Hamilton.

If you just take a look at the stats, these teams seem very close. But let’s not forget that B.C. did win their last five games against Edmonton and this time shouldn’t be any different.

QB Jarious Jackson should be able to take advantage of Edmonton’s soft defense but with Ricky Ray calling the shots on offense for the Eskimos, it could be quite an exciting game. Still, B.C. looks like a better bet for this matchup.

Pick: B.C.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-4) at Toronto Argonauts (2-3) (-3 ½, O/U 53 1/2)

Injuries have prevented both teams from being in first place in the East Division.

Center Dominic Picard, DL Jon Oosterhuis and LG Matt Sheridan are out indefinitely for Winnipeg, while CB Robert Bean will miss Week 6. Wide receiver Milt Stegall is listed as doubtful and LB Ike Charlton is listed as probable. Both have knee injuries.

Toronto will be without WRs David Boston (out indefinitely with a foot injury) and Bethel Johnson (ankle). They will also be without LB Kevin Eiben this week.

The Argonauts are the favorite but QB Ryan Dinwiddie led the Bombers last week to a 32-28 win against Calgary in which he threw for 450 yards, completing 24 of 39 pass attempts with one TD. Should he show so much poise against the Argonauts, the Bombers could have another upset win. And you could make a case that Kerry Joseph still seems to struggle in Toronto’s offensive schemes.

The Argos are at home but you have to like Winnipeg’s chances in this one.

Pick: Winnipeg

Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-0) at Calgary Stampeders (3-2) (-6, O/U 54 1/2)

They are the defending Grey Cup champs but the question remains: Are the Roughriders that good? This game at McMahon Stadium could prove to be a reality check for Saskatchewan.

The two teams have split their last 10 showdowns. Starting QB Marcus Crandell is listed as probable and will be back as a starter after missing three weeks of action with a hamstring injury. This is great news for the Roughriders who will be without Darian Durant for the next three or four weeks with ribs fractured.

Durant has been brilliant in relief of Crandell who will now try to keep the Riders’ winning streak alive. His timing may be off at the start of the game and Saskatchewan will need its defence to stop Henry Burris, who threw three touchdown strikes last week while completing 31 of 44 pass attempts for 386 yards in a 32-28 loss to Winnipeg.

Calgary is at home and should win this one.

Pick: Calgary