CFL Week 7

Trend Sheet

Thursday, August 7

7:00 PM TORONTO vs. HAMILTON
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Hamilton is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games

10:00 PM CALGARY vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Calgary is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary
Saskatchewan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Calgary

Friday, August 8

7:30 PM MONTREAL vs. WINNIPEG
Montreal is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Winnipeg
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Winnipeg is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home

10:30 PM EDMONTON vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Edmonton is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Edmonton is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
British Columbia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
British Columbia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton

Smart's Week 7 CFL betting power poll
By ALEX SMART

1: Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-0/1-0) (6-0 ATS) (LW: 1)

Six weeks up, six weeks down for the defending champs who now stand a ridiculous 6-0 both SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread.) The quarterback carousel continued to turn this week when initial starting QB Marcus Crandell got back under centre for the first time since Week 2. His overall numbers weren’t outstanding (18/37 for 225 yards), but a 21-point outburst in the first half paired with a third down and short stand late in the fourth quarter gave Saskatchewan a narrow 22-21 victory in Calgary. The Riders held on to their two-game lead on the entire CFL and can really put the clamps on the Stamps this week when the two teams hook up for the back end of their home-and-home in Week 7’s CFL betting action.

Next up: Home vs. Calgary (3-3)

2: Edmonton Eskimos (4-2/1-0) (4-1-1 ATS) (LW: 5)

Last week I said the Eskimos needed to put up an impressive win to gain a spot in the top half of the Canadian Football Power Poll, and boy did they ever. The Eskies rolled off 18 straight points in the fourth quarter, rallying to knock off the BC Lions 35-24 and cover the spread as a one-point underdog. Much like Saskatchewan, Edmonton hasn’t been overpowering on either side of the ball, but they’re doing enough to win and to cover the spread for CFL bettors on a frequent basis. If not for a 109-yard drive conceded against Toronto a few weeks ago, the Eskies would be challenging the Riders for the top spot in the poll. If they can find some way to go into BC Place and knock off the Lions again this week, we’ll know for sure that the green and gold are for real.

Next up: Away @ BC (3-3)

3: British Columbia Lions (3-3/0-1) (2-4 ATS) (LW: 2)

With three quarters expired at Commonwealth Stadium, everyone had to believe the BC Lions were back. They were ahead 24-17 and seemed poised to put the Eskimos away and cover the spread as short favorites. However, the defense collapsed under the pressure and allowed 18 straight points to the Edmonton offence. BC dropped to 3-3 in the 35-24 defeat. This week is probably a good spot for BC bettors, as the Lions haven’t failed to cover at least one half of a home-and-home series in almost five years. They’d better pick up this win though, or they could suddenly find themselves more worried about crossing over to the Eastern playoffs than defending their Western Division crown.

Next up: Home vs. Edmonton (2-2)

4: Montreal Alouettes (3-3/1-0) (3-3 ATS) (LW: 4)

With their 40-33 victory, the Alouettes successfully avoided the embarrassment of losing to the bye week known as the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in Week 6’s CFL betting action. However, they came up a bad bounce late in the fourth quarter short of covering the 10-point spread, as a Hamilton offensive lineman picked up a fumble in the end zone for the game-covering TD. No worries here, though. The Als were quite strong on both sides of the ball yet again, and now face a stretch over the next six weeks that will either firmly cement their spot as the Eastern Division top dogs, or find them slipping back towards Hamilton and Winnipeg.

Next up: Away @ Winnipeg (1-5)

5: Toronto Argonauts (3-3/1-0) (2-3-1 ATS) (LW: 6)

It was a close run thing, but the Argonauts used a stifling defensive effort to hold off Winnipeg in their 19-11 SU win and cover. For the first time all season, it was a game Toronto had covered basically from the get-go. The double blue put up their best defensive effort of the season, but head coach Rich Stubler has to be scratching his head over his offence which failed to score a major in the ballgame. Kerry Joseph has had times where he’s looked like the 2007 Most Outstanding Player, but his overall numbers are pedestrian at best. He’s completed a league-worst 57.1 percent of his passes for 1,317 yards and four TDs to go along with four INTs. This just seems to be the team that’s lurking around and finding ways to win games when they have to. If the defense continues playing like it did last week, the Argos will continue to disappoint over bettors, but they’ll put up “W’s” up on the board and march back toward the top of the poll.

Next up: Away @ Hamilton (1-5)

6: Calgary Stampeders (3-3/0-1) (3-3 ATS) (LW: 3)

For the second straight week, Calgary had a game in its grasp and let it get away. They had every chance to be the first team to knock off the Riders in 2008, but came up short when a missed 54-yard field goal as time expired sealed their fate in their 22-21 outright loss as seven-point favorites. The offense continues to pile up tons of yardage, as QB Henry Burris had another 300-yard passing game, but there were just too many untimely mistakes for Calgary to be a true force in the West. Now they get to play Saskatchewan again, but this time they have to travel to Regina, a place where the Riders have only lost once since the middle of last season.

Next up: Away @ Saskatchewan (6-0)

7: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-5/0-1) (1-5 ATS) (LW: 7)

Once again, the only thing keeping the Bombers out of the pit of the poll is Hamilton. In spite of WR Milt Stegall’s return to the lineup, the Winnipeg offense was atrocious last week’s 19-11 loss in Rogers Centre. Short of the very beginning of the game, the Bombers were never in front of the 3 1/2-point spread. Almost half of former Boise State QB Ryan Dinwiddie’s passing yards came on one long touchdown pass to Romby Bryant. Don’t be surprised if head coach Doug Berry takes a u-turn and goes back to Kevin Glenn at some point in this week’s game against Montreal. Coming back home could be just what Dinwiddie needs though, as he threw for 450 yards in his first CFL regular season start against Calgary two weeks ago.

Next up: Home vs. Montreal (3-3)

8: Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-5/0-1) (2-4 ATS) (LW: 7)

Steeltown is a gigantic mess right now, as the Ti-Cats are a woeful 1-5 and really haven’t done much improving since the beginning of the season. Yes, they successfully covered their 10-point spread against Montreal in their 40-33 Week 6 defeat, but they never really seriously challenged for the outright victory. It hasn’t mattered whether it’s Richie Williams or Casey Printers under centre. Hamilton is now six games into the season without a passing touchdown. If there’s a bright spot, they return to Ivor-Wynne Stadium this week to take on Toronto, a team they blasted up in Rogers Centre in Week 2 for their only victory of the year.

Next up: Home vs. Toronto (3-3)

CFL Week 7 Previews

The Bookmaker have adjusted their totals the last 3 weeks of the CFL season, the average O/U during Week 1 to Week 3 was between 48.0 and 48.5. However, now that the offenses have gelled and are putting up some big numbers on the board, the oddsmakers have raised their totals between 51.0 to 53.0 the last 3 weeks. Look for more games to go UNDER the total in Week 7, as you had all four totals go under the total in week 1, the OVER was 3-1 Week 2, 3 and 4. Then, we had a few "even-Stevens" of 2-2 during Week 5 and 6.

Plus, many teams have some key injuries this week, so look for the lines to start going down.

Toronto (-2.5) vs. Hamilton (50.5)

Argonauts @ Tiger Cats History: The Argos are 11-10-1 (ATS), 12-9-1 (SU) and the Over/Under is 9-13-0 since '96.

Ron's Comment: Whenever I watch a Hamilton Tiger Cats football game, I'm wondering if Head Coach Charlie Taaffe has a game plan in mind. In fact, not only should the blame go towards Charlie Taaffe, but what exactly is Bob O'Billovich doing as the GM for Bob Young's Football club. Shouldn't O'Billovich be bringing real receivers to help out the QB by committee these days? When is Timmy Chang expected to save the season? Furthermore, it's time the Tiger Cats trade Jesse Lumsden, because in 2 seasons in the CFL, he?s shown to be injury prone and the Tiger Cats can't afford to have a running back with this much potential on the IR each week. Now is the time to release Lumsden to another team and try to get a more consistent player who will be in the line up 80% of the season. You cannot establish a running game when your top running back is always injured. Jesse Lumsden seems to be a great kid and is well respected by his teammates and peers, but he's useless to the Tiger Cats if he's always injured. As for the Week 7 meeting between the Argonauts and Tiger Cats, it could be a game that decides the faith of the Tiger Cats head coach and you might get a better performance from the Ti-Cats. Hamilton has been labeled a -2.5 point road favorite vs. the Tabbies and whenever Hamilton is a +3.0 or less home underdog, they are 8-9-0 ATS, 5-11-1 SU and the O/U is 7-10-0 since 1996. The Argos seemed to have avoided a QB controversy, as Kerry Joseph seems to have taken the reigns of the offense and they've been averaging 25.33 points per game in their last 3 contest. Toronto is 2-1 SU in their last 3 games and their defense stepped up to the plate last weekend vs. Winnipeg.

Forecast: Toronto winning by 0.92 points and the O/U to land on 51.34 points.

Stat of the Game: When TORONTO team played as a pk to 3 Road Favorite - Coming off a game scored 17 points or more; The UNDER is 8-2-0 for the Argonauts.

Calgary (52.5) vs. Saskatchewan (-3)

Lions @ Eskimos History: The Stampeders are 10-9-0 (ATS), 10-8-1 (SU) and the Over/Under is 10-9-0 since '96.

Ron's Comment: When watching the Roughriders vs. Stampeders game last weekend, I started to think if the Saskatchewan Roughriders where our edition of the New England Patriots. However, New England was blowing out teams in the first 3 games and averaging 38 points per game. However, the Saskatchewan Roughriders have been living and dying by the sword, as they've been waiting until the last 3 minutes of the game to close out their opponents the last 4 weeks. In fact, there comes a point where one has to wonder if these Roughriders are for real? Ken Miller has the best defense in the league and it's very hard to run against these guys and Wes Cates is the early favorite on winning the Most Outstanding Player thus far. Cates has been spectacular on offense rushing or catching the ball out of the backfield and one has to wonder if he might get another sniff at the NFL if he continues this pace. The Roughriders are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS and the UNDER is 4-2-0 on the season. The Green Riders have average 30.67 PF on offense and are only giving up 22.17 against, but things could get a little tougher for Miller's men in August. Because, when Saskatchewan is a home team during the month of August between weeks 4 to 8, they are 3-8 SU and ATS. Calgary got rolling late last weekend, as Henry Burris was very inconsistent for 2 and a half quarters, but once he got his confidence going, it was just a matter of time before they made a game out of it at home. I'm still wondering why John Hufnagel opted to run the ball with a running back late in the game on a 3rd and 1, when it would have been better to sneak it with Burris. The Stampeders are in a nice handicapping spot this week; they are 8-3-1 on the road coming off a 0-3 point home lost since '96.

Forecast: Saskatchewan winning by 2.52 points and the O/U to land on 52.91 points.

Stat of the Game: When SASKATCHEWAN team played as a Home team - Coming off a Road win as a Underdog; The OVER is 10-2-0 for the Roughriders in this role.

Montreal (-3) vs. Winnipeg (54)

Alouettes @ Blue Bombers History: The Alouettes are 7-11-1 (ATS), 10-9 (SU) and the Over/Under is 10-8-1 since '96.

Ron's Comment: The Montreal Alouettes finally delivered a victory to its fans last week at Molson Percival Stadium vs. the Hamilton Tiger Cats. OK, it's not that surprising they won as a -10.0 point home favorite, but considering they've lost 3 games prior to their tilt with the Tabbies, Montreal was always finding a way to lose games. Montreal is a good football team, but they lack the killer instinct to put teams away and I'm starting to wonder if Marc Trestman is too conservative as a head coach. Keep in mind, this was a offensive coordinator who was at NC State and seen 9 out of 10 games go under the total. Whenever you have that many unders in a season, this tells me the coach wants to control the clock and run the game out. In fact, according to his Wikipedia bio, it states the following phrase; "Trestman spent the 2004 season with the Miami Dolphins and in 2005 he returned to college football as the North Carolina State Wolfpack offensive coordinator where he was known for being a conservative play-caller." Does this sound like a head coach who wants to run and gun? The Alouettes get some players back on defense this week and they could use the help, as they've allowed 36.67 points against in their last 3 games. Furthermore, whenever you allowed the Hamilton Tiger Cats to hang 33 points on you at home, you know the Alouettes concentrated allot of minor details to defense and don't be surprised if they returned to the basics. Winnipeg on the other hand has gone from the Penthouse to the Outhouse in a matter of 9 months! The Blue Bombers are not in a good sports handicapping situation this Friday Night, they are 3-7 SU as a home underdog in August since '96 and the UNDER is 7-3-0. As for Doug Berry's move to replace Kevin Glenn with former Boise State star Ryan Dinwiddie. Well, Matt Dunnigan said it best last week on the CFL panel on TSN, Ryan Dinwiddie has a pop gun for an arm! Watching the game last week between the Bombers and Argos, I noticed allot of Dinwiddie's passes were floaters and had no tight spirals or speed. If you're a totals players, here's a great team trend that backs up the under. When a Montreal team played on the road on 7 days rest, during Week 4 to 8 and they care coming off a Home straight up win as a Favorite; the UNDER is 8-2-0 for the Alouettes in this spot since '96.

forecast: Montreal winning by 12.02 points and the O/U to land on 56.03 points.

Stat of the Game: When ANY CFL Team played as a Home team -Vs Montreal opponent -With 6 day off -Before a division game - Allowed score 17 points or more against; The OVER is 12-2-0 for the Home Team (Winnipeg) in this spot.

Edmonton (55) vs. BC Lions (-6)

Eskimos @ Lions History: The Eskimos are 11-7-2 (ATS), 9-11 (SU) and the Over/Under is 8-11-1 since '96.

Ron's Comment: The Edmonton Eskimos pulled off a Hollywood ending last week at home vs. the BC Lions. After starting slowly out of the gate, Ricky Ray hit Kamau Peterson over the middle and he got leveled by a Lions secondary. However, Peterson rose to his feet, flipped his jersey up and pointed to the 83 on his stomach in honor of his fallen comrade Jason Tucker who suffered a serious neck injury 2 weeks ago in Hamilton. It truly was an inspiring performance to see the Eskimos rally around their teammate and after that catch, it was all over for the Lions, as the Eskimos confidence grew on each play afterwards. The Eskimos have really turned the corner and have been playing with more consistency on offense and Ricky Ray has found some reliable receivers. Edmonton is on a 2 game winning streak and has won 4 of their last 5 games. However, they will be in a tough spot this Friday night at BC Place; the Lions have won 4 straight in BC and 6 of the last 7 meetings. If you're a law of average handicapper, the bookmakers agree with the theory, they've placed the Lions a -6.0 point home favorite, the Eskimos won game one of this back to back series. However, the Lions have a history of not showing up at home after scoring 24 points or less in their previous game. In fact, when the BC Lions played as a Home team during Week 4 to 8 and they are coming off a game where they scored 24 points or less; the Leo's are 2-9 SU. What bothers me with this Lions teams is the inconsistency at the QB position. One week Jarious Jackson is hitting his receivers in stride, other weeks he's 5 to 10 yards off his throws. Jackson is more dangerous when he's running the ball and Wally Buono should really consider using some sprint out passing plays that allows Jackson to pass or tuck it and run. One of the best type of plays for Jackson is one of those counter option plays, where the offense can run counter plays using the pulling guard and then option off that counter play and use a roll out to the opposite side to throw the ball. Nevertheless, Buono needs to find a way to get Jackson out of the pocket and get him in a situation where he can start running. When I look at Jarious Jackson I see Tracy Ham, Damon Allen, Kerry Joseph, and JC Watts, quarterbacks who knew when to tuck it and run.

forecast: Edmonton winning by 4.3 points and the O/U to land on 56.30 points.

Stat of the Game: When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as Home team as a Favorite -Vs Division Opponent -Playing on Friday; the BC Lions are 14-3 SU in this role since '96.

CFL Week 7 previews and predictions
By CHARLES-ANDRÉ MARCHAND

Toronto Argonauts (3-3) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-5) (+2½, 49)

This could be Charlie Taaffe’s last chance to save his job as head coach for the Tiger-Cats. But with star running-back Jesse Lumsden suffering a knee injury and listed as questionable, the Argos may prove too much to handle for Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats did manage a surprise earlier this season by beating them 32-13. But the situation is quite different now on Toronto’s side. QB Kerry Joseph finally seems comfortable guiding the offence as they averaged more than 25 points a game over the last three weeks. The Argos defence was also quite impressive against Winnipeg in Week 6, in a 19-11 win. Joseph completed 21 of 35 pass attempts for 219 yards. The Tiger-Cats lost 40-33 to the Alouettes. Richie Williams completed 18 passes on 24 attempts for 260 yards and rushed for an extra 79 yards and a pair of touchdowns. But Hamilton, who lost its last four games, still hasn’t scored a single touchdown on a passing play so far this season.

Pick: Toronto

Calgary Stampeders (3-3) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-0) (-2½, 52 )

When the Grey Cup champions Saskatchewan Roughriders traded their star quarterback Kerry Joseph to Toronto, nobody could have predicted that they would start the 2008 season so strongly with a perfect record entering Week 7. Now, across Canada, everybody asks the same question: are they for real? This game against the feisty Calgary Stampeders should provide part of the answer. Sure, the Stampeders are 3-3 but, their smart chart stats are quite close to those of the Roughriders. Both teams average around 30 points a game, both teams give up around 22 or 23 points a game, Calgary has been more efficient in the passing game while Saskatchewan with Wes Cates, shows a stronger running game. The Stampeders defence will show up in Saskatchewan without defensive back Calvin Bannister, linebacker Saleem Rasheed and defensive linemen Funtaine Hunter and Juwan Simpson. But, if Henry Burris shows consistency, this could be a very close game.

Pick: Saskatchewan

Montreal Alouettes (3-3) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-5) (+3, 55)

Before the 2008 season started, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers were considered heavyweights in the East Division while many thought the Alouettes would be fighting with Hamilton for the third place. Once again, the experts got it wrong. Injuries to key players and lack of opportunism may explain the Bombers disappointing 1-5 record. On the Alouettes side, a stronger showing of the special units and defence could have made them a perfect 6-0 at this point. Coach Marc Trestman proves to be creative in play-calling early in games but has a tendency to become too conservative when the Alouettes are in the lead. The Alouettes allowed more than 36 points in each of their last three games. Former Boise State star Ryan Dinwiddie, who is now the No. 1 QB for Winnipeg throws too many floaters and that could prove to be a problem for the Blue Bombers.

Pick: Montreal

Edmonton Eskimos (4-2) at B.C. Lions (3-3) (+3, 55)

The Eskimos have a great start, above expectations, but they still don’t have the skills and talent of the B.C. Lions. That’s the bottom line. Of course, the Eskimos did stun the Lions last week with a dramatic win. Ricky Ray now can rely on his receivers and the Eskimos won four of their last five games. But the Lions don’t often lose at B.C. Place where they won against the Eskimos in five of their last six meetings. The biggest question mark for B.C. is their quarterback Jarious Jackson who as been seriously lacking consistency in his passing game while showing fabulous speed when he comes out of the pocket. He will be the key to this game and if he shows up with poise, this should be an easy win for the Lions.

Pick: B.C.