CFL Betting: Week 8 power poll
By ALEX SMART
1: Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-1/0-1) (6-1 ATS) (LW: 1) So, they’re not perfect after all. It took almost two full months, but the defending champs suffered their first loss of the season at home in the back half of a home-and-home series against the Calgary Stampeders. The 30-25 setback not only marked the first loss of the season, but the first time that the Riders failed to cover the spread. CFL bettors perhaps saw this coming, as they were bet down from 3-point favorites to 1.5-point favorites by the close. Until further notice, there’s still no doubt that they’re the team to beat in the CFL.
Next up: Bye
2: Edmonton Eskimos (4-3/0-1) (4-2-1 ATS) (LW: 2) Even though they lost last week, it’s hard to move the Eskies out of the No. 2 spot after fighting tooth and nail with the BC Lions over in Vancouver. Turning the ball over seven times in a game is a recipe for disaster, but in spite of pulling that accomplishment off, Ricky Ray and the offense still put up great numbers. The 40-34 defeat narrowly failed to cover the 5 1/2-pointspread, but yet another Edmonton game flew over the total. Though we’re not totally sold that the Eskimos will be in this spot for much longer, two tremendous games against BC in as many weeks is good enough to stay No. 2 for now…
Next up: Bye
3: British Columbia Lions (4-3/1-0) (3-4 ATS) (LW: 3) Good thing BC has a bye week coming up. They have some serious issues at quarterback, as former Notre Dame QB Jarious Jackson was yanked for ineffectiveness in the second half of their 40-34 win this week against the Eskimos. Though HC Wally Buono has already backed Jackson as his starter, a week of practice could change his mind. Buck Pierce is waiting in the wings. However, if the defense can force seven turnovers in every game like they did in Week 7’s CFL betting action, they’ll be covering the spread quite a bit in the weeks to come.
Next up: Bye
4: Calgary Stampeders (4-3/1-0) (4-3 ATS) (LW: 6) We don’t mean to disrespect the Alouettes, but there’s no way that we can allow Calgary to stay in the bottom half of the poll after knocking off the previously unbeaten Roughriders in Regina. With everyone in the West at 4-3 (save 6-1 Saskatchewan), we’re splitting hairs just to separate the teams. The defense is still a question mark for the Stamps, as they almost blew a 30-4 lead in the fourth quarter in Week 7. The best news for Calgary is that RB Joffrey Reynolds had his best game of the year last week, toting the ball 24 times for 128 yards.
Next up: Bye
5: Montreal Alouettes (4-3/1-0) (4-3 ATS) (LW: 4) It’s really rough when you go on the road and knock off a division rival by 28 points and still move down in the polls. Perhaps we’re being hard on the Als at No. 5, but just the fact that they play in the East is enough to drag them down. Yes, the 39-11 victory in Winnipeg was incredibly impressive, but Montreal is going to need to separate themselves from Toronto and the rest of the East in the coming weeks to move back into the top half of the poll. This will be a good week to do damage, as Week 8 betting concludes on Friday night when Montreal travels to Rogers Centre to take on the Argos before heading into the bye week.
Next up: Away @ Toronto (3-4)
6: Toronto Argonauts (3-4/0-1) (2-4-1 ATS) (LW: 5) It’s gut check time for the double blue. For the second time this season, the Argos were heavy favorites against lowly Hamilton. For the second time, they didn’t just fail to cover the spread, nor did they just manage to lose the game. Quite frankly, the 45-21 defeat was the second time that Hamilton killed the Boatmen this year. Head coach Rich Stubler has to be wondering what’s up with his team, which was favored to win the East at the start of the season. If not for the fact that the rest of the East struggled so much against the West earlier in the year, this team would be looking up at the entire division right now. This is as close to a must-win as you’ll see this early in any season, but Toronto absolutely has to beat Montreal this weekend if they think they’re legit contenders for the Grey Cup.
Next up: Home vs. Montreal (4-3)
7: Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-5/1-0) (3-4 ATS) (LW: 8) Finally, the fans at Ivor-Wynne Stadium in Hamilton have something to cheer about! The Ti-Cats notched their first home victory of the season in resounding fashion, knocking off the Argonauts 45-21 and making a mockery of the fact that they were underdogs in this game. Unfortunately, the black and gold can’t play Toronto every week. They’re 2-0 SU and ATS against the Argos, outscoring them 77-34 in the two games. Against the rest of the CFL, they’re 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS, and have been outscored by an average of 13.6 PPG. Holy Schneikes!
Next up: Away @ Winnipeg (1-6)
8: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-6/0-1) (1-6 ATS) (LW: 7) The executioner has been positioned at the guillotine, and Doug Berry’s head is set to get axed as the head coach of the Blue Bombers. Knowing full well that he is likely coaching his last game if they lose, Berry will turn the ball back over to Kevin Glenn, who took his Bombers to the Grey Cup final last year. QB Ryan Dinwiddie proved ineffective in their 39-11 loss to Montreal over the weekend, failing to lead the team on a single touchdown drive before being yanked in favor of Glenn in the fourth quarter. With a bye week on the horizon, Winnipeg absolutely must take care of Hamilton this weekend, or they could be as much as three games back of a playoff spot before they resume play in Week 10.
Next up: Home vs. Hamilton (2-5)
CFL Preview Week 8: Hamilton vs. Winnipeg
Ron Raymond
The CFL is entering their division bye week and the Western teams are taking advantage of the first week of rest; as Hamilton travels to Winnipeg.
Here are some CFL facts about the bye week. Entering a bye weekend can be a psychological juggling act for the head coaches, as they need to keep their players focused on the task at hand, instead players might be thinking what they might be doing with their time off. In fact, the bye week tends to favor the home teams, as they are 12-5 SU since 1996 and the road teams are 1-4 SU and ATS.
Hamilton (54) vs. Winnipeg (-3.5)
Tiger Cats @ Blue Bombers History: The Hamilton Tiger Cats are 8-9-0 (ATS), 6-11 (SU) and the O/U is 6-11-0 when they travel to Winnipeg to face the Blue Bombers.
Ron's Comment: Momentum and confidence is a dangerous chemistry for a football team and it's pretty clear, Hamilton and Winnipeg are going North and South with these 2 factors. Hamilton is coming off an impressive upset home underdog win over Toronto, Ticats QB Richie Williams is giving this team a chance to win and the offense has been putting up some big numbers in their last 2 games.
Winnipeg on the other hand, are trying to walk in step as a team and they are playing QB shuffle for the second time in 3 weeks. Plus, they seem to be blaming their kicker as a diversion to the real problem, as Doug Berry seems to be losing control of his football team. Kevin Glenn will get the start this Thursday and Richie Williams will be getting his 3rd straight start. Hamilton is averaging 30.3 point for per game in their last 3 outings, compared to 25.2 on the season.
Winnipeg is allowing 28.67 points against, compared to 30.86 on the year. The Tiger Cats have seen their last 2 games go OVER the posted total and they've covered both games as an underdog. Winnipeg is on a 2 game losing streak and both games have gone UNDER the total. Plus, when the Bombers face a division foe this season, they are averaging 15.5 points per game and allowing 29.75. If there's a ray of light for the Blue Bombers, they are 8-3 SU as a home fave vs. the Ticats since 1996.
Although the Tiger Cats have seen some improvements the last 2 weeks, they are still a bad football team away from Ivor Wynne Stadium. Hamilton has only won 3 football games the last 3 seasons on the road and has lost 27. Plus, when Hamilton is a road team and they've covered their last 2 games, they are 4-13 SU in the next game.
Forecast: Hamilton to win by 10.12 points and the O/U to land on 51.72.
Stat of the Game: When HAMILTON team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Road Underdog - Allowed scored 21 points or less against; The UNDER is 9-2-0 for the Tiger Cats in this spot since 1996.
Week 8 CFL games
Thursday, August 14
Hamilton (2-5) @ Winnipeg (1-6)-- TiCats are 2-0 vs Argos, but 2-5 vs everyone else; they scored 32-45 in their wins, running ball for 311-209 yards, but scored just 20 ppg in losses, running ball for 138.2 ypg. Bombers scored 11 points in each of last two weeks- all six Winnipeg losses are by 7+ points. Three of five Hamilton losses are by seven or less points. Five of TiCats' last six games went over the total.
Friday, August 15
Montreal (4-3) @ Toronto (3-4)-- Alouettes scored 33+ points in six of seven games; they went WWLLLWW first seven tilts, with losses by 4-8-2 points. Argos allowed 176+ rushing yards in fou rof last six games, losing twice to 2-5 Hamilton. Argos are 2-1 at home, beating Edmonton-Winnipeg in last two at Rogers Centre. Three of last four Montreal games went over the total.
Thursday, August 14
8:00 PM HAMILTON vs. WINNIPEG
Hamilton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Hamilton's last 23 games when playing Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Winnipeg is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Friday, August 15
7:30 PM MONTREAL vs. TORONTO
Montreal is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Toronto
Montreal is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games
Toronto is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games