DUNKEL
Winnipeg at BC
The Lions look to take advantage of a Winnipeg team that is 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. BC is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: BC (-7 1/2).
Saskatchewan at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 109.156; Montreal 124.352
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 15; 57 1/2
Vegas Line: Montreal by 12; 54
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-12); Over
Winnipeg at BC
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 102.369; BC 112.602
Dunkel Line: BC by 10; 56 1/2
Vegas Line: BC by 7 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BC (-7 1/2); Over
SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 3) at MONTREAL (6 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 87-54 ATS (+27.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 119-90 ATS (+20.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 77-48 ATS (+24.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG (2 - 5) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (3 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in August games since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN vs. MONTREAL
Saskatchewan is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Saskatchewan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Montreal is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
Montreal is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Saskatchewan
WINNIPEG vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Winnipeg is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing British Columbia
Winnipeg is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
British Columbia is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Montreal Alouettes
The Montreal Alouettes are coming off a big 39-12 win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Saturday and Anthony Calvillo threw for 4 touchdown passes and completed 23 of 37 passes for 261 yards. The Bombers are on their 4th QB this season and have not scored a TD since the August 8th game vs. the Stampeders.
The Roughriders are 2-12 SU vs. the Alouettes since 1996 and they’ve covered 8 of those 14 games with the UNDER being 10-3-1 for Miller’s teams. The Alouettes are 8-2 SU at home in their last 10 games and covered the spread 7 out of 10 times in those games.
The Roughriders will have revenge on their minds, as they took a 43-10 beating on July 18th vs. Montreal and if the Riders can Wes Cates going and running the football successfully, they could make this a close game. However, Montreal just unlocked their offense last week vs. a decent Bombers defense and check the weather report for Friday’s game, as it could play into the total.
The offshore sportsbooks have opened this line at Montreal -10 and it’s been bet up to -12 with the over/under set at 51.
Prediction
* Saskatchewan 20
* Montreal 33
Saskatchewan Roughriders
* Line : 12 O/U : 54
* Last game: win 23 - 33 vs Hamilton Tigercats
* Current game: vs. Montreal Alouettes at 6:35 PM
* Home Favorite: 1 Win -1 Lost (PF)33 - (PA)30.5
* Home Underdog: 1 Win -1 Lost (PF)19 - (PA)33.5
* Road Favorite: 0 Win -0 Lost (PF)N/A - (PA)N/A
* Road Underdog: 2 Win -1 Lost (PF)30 - (PA)31.33
* Last 3 game: 2 Win 1 Lost (PF)25.67 - (PA)27
* Last 5 game: 2 Win 3 Lost (PF)24 - (PA)32.4
* Last 7 game: 4 Win 3 Lost (PF)27.71 - (PA)31.71
* Last 10 game: 4 Win 3 Lost (PF)27.71 - (PA)31.71
* Last 15 game: 4 Win 3 Lost (PF)27.71 - (PA)31.71
Situations
* Coming off a Home win as a Favorite (HAM)
* Coming off a 1 game over
* Coming off a game scored 31 points or more
* Allowed scored 24 points or less against
* Coming off a 1 ATS win
Team System Trends
When SASKATCHEWAN team played as Road team as a Underdog - Coming off a Score 32 - 35 POINTS FOR in last game
* ATS: 8-2-0
* SU: 4-6-0
* O/U: 2-8-0
Montreal Alouettes
* Line : -12 O/U : 54
* Last game: win 39 - 12 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers
* Current game: vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders at 6:35 PM
* Home Favorite: 3 Win -0 Lost (PF)32 - (PA)8
* Home Underdog: 0 Win -0 Lost (PF)N/A - (PA)N/A
* Road Favorite: 2 Win -1 Lost (PF)33.67 - (PA)18.33
* Road Underdog: 1 Win -0 Lost (PF)40 - (PA)27
* Last 3 game: 2 Win 1 Lost (PF)27.67 - (PA)15
* Last 5 game: 4 Win 1 Lost (PF)29.4 - (PA)12.6
* Last 7 game: 6 Win 1 Lost (PF)33.86 - (PA)15.14
* Last 10 game: 6 Win 1 Lost (PF)33.86 - (PA)15.14
* Last 15 game: 6 Win 1 Lost (PF)33.86 - (PA)15.14
Situations
* Coming off a Road win as a Favorite (WPG)
* Coming off a 2 game winning streak
* Coming off a 1 game over
* Coming off a game scored 38 points or more
* Allowed scored 13 points or less against
* Coming off a 2 ATS win
Team System Trends
When ANY CFL team played as a -10.0 or more Home Favorite -Total is between 51.5 to 54 - Coming off a 1 game over
* ATS: 8-6-0
* SU: 13-1-0
* O/U: 8-6-0
When ANY CFL team played as a -10.0 or more Home Favorite - Allowed scored 13 points or less against
* ATS: 10-15-1
* SU: 22-4-0
* O/U: 8-18-0
ATSDatabase.com System of the Game: When ANY CFL Team played as Home team as a Favorite -Vs Non Conference Opponent -Playing on Friday - Coming off a 1 game over - Coming off a game scored 38 points or more; the Home Faves (MTL) are 12-0 SU in this role since 1996.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. BC Lions
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the Toronto Argonauts have something in common, both teams have a good defense, but stubborn head coaches who can’t relinquish their offensive coordinator duties to somebody who knows what their doing. As a leader it’s tough to relinquish a bit of the control, as it may be seen as a sign of weakness, but the sooner these guys can swallow their pride and look after the big picture, the better position they will put their football teams. Or, face the other option, the unemployment line!
The Bombers are off to Vancouver to face the BC Lions who will be starting journeyman veteran QB Jarious Jackson, as Buck Pierce suffered a concussion in his last game vs. the Argonauts after throwing an interception. The Lions are not the same confident football team we’ve witnessed from past years, they’ve got issues on the offensive line and the turnovers have been their biggest momentum killer! The Bombers have a great defense, but can’t move the football on offense and when they do, it’s either a run from Reid or a pass that goes 10 yards or less. The last time the Bombers made the highlight reel, Milt Stegall was still in a Blue Bombers uniform.
The more I handicap this football game; it’s going to come down to the BC Lions run defense vs. the Bombers run defense. Both teams lead the league in interception, as the Bombers have 16 picks on the year and the Lions have 9, so it won’t be a wise decision from both coaches to try to use their aerial assaults with their unreliable QB situations.
The Sportsbooks have made the Lions an -8 point home favorite with the over/under total set at 51.0.
Prediction
* Winnipeg 23
* BC Lions 21
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
* Line: 8 O/U: 51
* Last game: lost 39 - 12 vs Montreal Alouettes
* Current game: vs. British Columbia Lions at 9:35 PM
* Home Favorite: 0 Win -1 Lost (PF)5 - (PA)19 H
* ome Underdog: 1 Win -1 Lost (PF)27 - (PA)34.5
* Road Favorite: 0 Win -1 Lost (PF)13 - (PA)25
* Road Underdog: 1 Win -2 Lost (PF)17.67 - (PA)20.67
* Last 3 game: 1 Win 2 Lost (PF)16 - (PA)27.33
* Last 5 game: 1 Win 4 Lost (PF)13.2 - (PA)25.2
* Last 7 game: 2 Win 5 Lost (PF)17.86 - (PA)25
* Last 10 game: 2 Win 5 Lost (PF)17.86 - (PA)25
* Last 15 game: 2 Win 5 Lost (PF)17.86 - (PA)25
Situations
* Coming off a Home loss as an Underdog (MTL)
* Coming off a 2 game losing streak
* Coming off a 2 game over
* Coming off a game scored 13 points or less
* Allowed score 38 points or more against
* Coming off a 1 ATS lost
British Columbia Lions
* Line : -8 O/U : 51
* Last game: win 36 - 28 vs Toronto Argonauts
* Current game: vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers at 9:35 PM
* Home Favorite: 1 Win -1 Lost (PF)31.5 - (PA)25.5
* Home Underdog: 0 Win -1 Lost (PF)10 - (PA)48
* Road Favorite: 1 Win -2 Lost (PF)26 - (PA)28.67
* Road Underdog: 1 Win -0 Lost (PF)40 - (PA)22
* Last 3 game: 2 Win 1 Lost (PF)29.67 - (PA)26
* Last 5 game: 3 Win 2 Lost (PF)27.8 - (PA)29.6
* Last 7 game: 3 Win 4 Lost (PF)27.29 - (PA)29.57
* Last 10 game: 3 Win 4 Lost (PF)27.29 - (PA)29.57
* Last 15 game: 3 Win 4 Lost (PF)27.29 - (PA)29.57
Situations
* Coming off a Road win as a Favorite (TOR)
* Coming off a 2 game winning streak
* Coming off a 1 game over
* Coming off a game scored 35 points or more
* Allowed scored 28 points or less against
* Coming off a 2 ATS win
Team System Trends When ANY CFL team played as a Home team - After a non division game -During Week 4 to 8 - Coming off a game scored 35 points or more
* ATS: 15-11-2
* SU: 23-5-0
* O/U/: 16-10-2
When ANY CFL team played as a -7.0 to -9.5 Favorite -During Week 4 to 8 - Coming off a 1 game over
* ATS: 15-4-1
* SU: 18-2-0
* O/U: 8-10-2
ATSDatabase.com System of the Game: When WINNIPEG team played as Road team as a Underdog -During Week 4 to 8 - Coming off back to back SU loss; The UNDER is 7-3-0 for the Bombers in this role since 1996.
atsdatabase.com
CFL Week 8 Preview and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand
Saskatchewan Roughriders at Montreal Alouettes (-12, 54.5)
The Alouettes dominated the first meeting in Regina by a score of 43-13. That outcome was greatly inflated by the turnovers.
The Roughriders, with a win, could take sole possession of first place in the West Division, at the mid-point mark of the 2009 season. That should be a source of motivation before their bye week. But will the QB duet of Darian Durant and Steven Jyles find the key to Montreal’s stout defence (fewest yards and points allowed in the CFL)?
The Alouettes also are head of the class in the CFL with 21 sacks. Keep in mind that the Roughriders are tied with Edmonton for the most points allowed which can’t be good news facing a QB like Anthony Calvillo who completed no less than 74.6 percent of his passes for a league-leading 2160 yards after seven games.
Pick: Montreal
Winnipeg Blue Bombers at B.C. Lions (-7.5, 50.5)
Buck Pierce, who suffered a concussion in last week’s game, will sit out and Jarious Jackson will get his first start of the season for the B.C. Lions. Jackson led the Lions to two of their three victories so far this season.
Running back Martell Mallett, limited to 54 yards on 12 carries in Week 7, will face a solid Winnipeg defensive unit that ranks fourth against the run. Winnipeg’s defence also has a league-leading 16 interceptions while the Lions quarterbacks have combined for 13 interceptions.
Turnovers could make a difference in this game, although, the Blue Bombers seem incapable of passing and must rely on their running game.
You probably can’t find a more inept offence in the CFL right now and it is obvious head coach Mike Kelly doesn’t have a clue how to make things better. The Lions have a more balanced team and if they avoid senseless turnovers, they should win this one.
Pick: B.C.
Last Week 4-0, season 16-12