CFL Week 8 News and Notes

Thursday, August 19

WINNIPEG vs. MONTREAL
Winnipeg is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Montreal
Winnipeg is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Montreal is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg

Friday, August 20

HAMILTON vs. TORONTO
Hamilton is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Hamilton is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto19-5-1 SU in its last 25 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 9 games at home

Week 8 CFL games

Winnipeg (2-5) @ Montreal (5-2) - Alouettes are 3-0 at home, 2-1 as a home favorite, winning by 23-31-4 points at home; they got upset last week in Toronto, giving up 408 yards on just 41 Argonaut plays. Four of last five Montreal games stayed under total. Bombers are 0-3 on road, losing away games by 21-3-7 points (1-2 as road dog). Bizzare schedule saw Winnipeg play Hamilton four times in first seven weeks of season.

Hamilton (3-4) @ Toronto (5-2) - Argos won five of last six games after upsetting Montreal last week. Toronto is favored for first time this year; they're 3-0 at home, winning by 3-4-15 points. Last week's win was the first game they've won by more than four points. Hamilton is 3-0 vs the Blue Bombers, 0-3 vs everyone else, losing by 1-23-13 points- they are 1-2 as road dogs this year. Three of four TiCat road games went over.

CFL Week 8 Preview and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes (-11.5, 56)

On the eve of hosting the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Percival-Molson Stadium, the Alouettes got some good news and some bad news. The good news is that speedster Tim Maypray (what a great name for a kick returner) will play despite a leg injury that brought some concern earlier this week. The bad news is that running back Avon Cobourne, also suffering from a leg injury, won’t be available.

But despite all his talent, Cobourne won’t be missed that much since his understudy, Brandon Whitaker, has proven in the past that he’s more than capable. Whitaker’s blocking ability in pass protection will give QB Anthony Calvillo the time he needs to find open receivers. Calvillo tossed for 450 yards in a loss to the Argos despite playing with a dislocated finger on his right hand.

For their part, the Blue Bombers came to Montreal without starting QB Buck Pierce and will have to rely again on Steven Jyles. A calve injury to Louie Sakoda means the Bombers will also have a new place-kicker for Thursday’s game. Justin Palardy takes on the kicking role but he’s still searching for his first made field goal in the CFL.

Pick: Montreal

Hamilton Tiger Cats at Toronto Argonauts (-2.5, 54)

The surprising Argos look to stay atop the East standings but the Hamilton Tiger-Cats would like nothing better than to squash their eternal rivals on Friday night. It’ll be the first time this year the two sides have met and it’s the first time in years the game has more on the line than which team will take over the basement of the league standings.

The Argos may or may not be overachieving but certainly the 3-4 Tiger-Cats aren’t playing up to their abilities. After all, Hamilton is 3-1 against Winnipeg and 0-3 against everybody else.

Toronto will play the Ticats without ace slotback Jermaine Copeland who dislocated his left shoulder early in Saturday’s game against Montreal. Chad Lucas, Ryan Christian and Jeffrey Webb are the available candidates to fill in but you can expect Lucas, who was Toronto’s best receiver last year with 69 catches and 950 yards, to get the bulk of the plays drawn for Copeland.

QB Cleo Lemon also has an emerging target in Chad Owens. The receiver took home offensive player of the week honors last week after he hauled in six catches and two TD grabs against the Alouettes.

Pick: Toronto

CFL Breakdown
By Bodog

Is this the future for the NFL? League officials appear bent on expanding the regular season to 18 games, just like the CFL season. The bye week is handled a little differently in Canada: Four teams get this week off, while the other four will be idle in Week 9. From a football betting perspective, that takes care of any competitive advantage teams get for having their bye closer to the end of the season.

And the end is coming soon. We’re already at the halfway point, and there haven’t been very many surprises out there – except in Toronto, where Argonauts supporters are laughing all the way to the bank. They could be in first place in the East Division by the time the weekend rolls around; it’s up to the defending Grey Cup champions to do something about it.

Thursday: Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes

It was all fun and games for the Alouettes (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) until last week, when they went into the Rogers Centre as 7.5-point favorites and were smacked around 37-22. No need for panic in La Belle Province, though. Special teams played a big role for Toronto in that game, as we’ll discuss in a moment, and that’s always a danger when you play in the CFL. The Alouettes are perfectly capable of rebounding. They’ve covered each of their last four games against the CFL betting lines after a straight-up loss.

There’s less room for optimism in Winnipeg after the Blue Bombers (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) lost to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats for the third time a row. Winnipeg committed five turnovers in a 39-28 loss as 4.5-point home faves; QB Buck Pierce threw an interception in the first half before calling it a day, clearly lacking mobility after missing three games with a sprained right knee. Steven Jyles replaced Pierce and went pick-free with a pair of TD passes. He’ll get the start again Thursday night.

The Bombers also need a new place-kicker. After releasing Alexis Serna, Winnipeg pinned its hopes on Louie Sakoda, but he tweaked a calf muscle the day before the game, kept it a secret, and then aggravated the injury during the warm-ups. Winnipeg didn’t attempt any field goals against Hamilton – by the time Big Blue was in position, it was the fourth quarter and three points wasn’t going to be enough. Former Hamilton punter Justin Palardy won an audition to kick for the Bombers this week. This isn’t a promising development for a team that’s 2-7 ATS in its last nine games against Montreal.

Friday: Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Toronto Argonauts

We’ve talked a lot about smoke and mirrors when it comes to the Argonauts (5-2 SU and ATS), and it’s not meant out of spite. Toronto has been outscored 199-179 on the season, suffering blowout road losses to the Alouettes and the Calgary Stampeders, the top two teams in the league. Last week’s upset of the Als was the first time this year the Boatmen won a game by more than four points. The key special teams plays: a 110-yard kick-off return by Ryan Christian, and a fake third-down punt that turned into a 42-yard run by Bryan Crawford.

While all these shenanigans are taking place, Cleo Lemon is starting to find his feet as a CFL quarterback. He had his best performance yet for the Argos, throwing three TD passes against Montreal’s stout defense with zero picks. Toronto already has a proven rusher in Cory Boyd, the league leader with 711 yards (6.1 yards per carry), and the defense is holding up reasonably well. Getting all these elements working together – and playing this week at home – makes the Boatmen the favorites for the first time this season.

The Tiger-Cats (3-4 SU and ATS) haven’t beaten anyone besides the Blue Bombers in 2010. But this is also the first time they’ve faced their close rivals in the Battle of Ontario. Ti-Cats QB Kevin Glenn (14 TDs, six INTs, 102.2 passer rating) is performing well, hooking up on a regular basis with league-leading receiver Arland Bruce (744 yards, 16.5 yards per catch, five TDs). The defense held its own against Winnipeg, especially tackle Matt Kirk, who picked up a pair of sacks to earn Canadian Player of the Week honors. But will any of this fly against Toronto? Especially with home teams going 19-9 SU and 17-11 ATS across the league?

Winnipeg goes into Montreal as double-digit underdog
By: StatFox

Winnipeg travels to Montreal to take on the Alouettes. Montreal is tied with Toronto for first in the East Division with 10 points, while the Blue Bombers are last in the East Division with four points.

Montreal had its five-game win streak snapped last week with a 37-22 loss at Toronto. Winnipeg has lost three straight and five of six since defeating Hamilton in their season opener. Winnipeg is winless on the road this season, while the Alouettes have won 12 straight at home. The defending Grey Cup Champions last lost at Molson Stadium on October 26, 2008 vs. Winnipeg.

Montreal has won five of the last seven meetings between these two teams, but FoxSheets expects Winnipeg to bounce back from last week’s loss. Play On - Road teams (WINNIPEG) - versus division opponents, off a loss against a division rival. (31-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.8%, +18.9 units. Rating = 2*).

Hamilton and Toronto renew their rivalry
By: StatFox

The Argonauts host the Tiger-Cats Friday Night in a battle between long-time rivals. Toronto is tied with Montreal for first in the East Division with 10 points, while Hamilton is in third place with six points.

Toronto has won two straight and five of six since losing at Calgary in Week 1. Despite being outscored by 20 points through their first seven games, the Argonauts are just two wins shy of their combined total of the last two seasons (7-29).

Hamilton has won two straight since losing four-of-five to start the season. After dropping eight straight games to Toronto, Hamilton has made this a closer rivalry by taking four of the last eight meetings.

The Tiger-Cats also have this FoxSheets trend in their favor: Play Against - Home favorites (TORONTO) - off a win over a division rival, in the first half of the season. (30-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating = 4*).