Week 9 power poll
By ALEX SMART
1: Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-1/0-0) (6-1 ATS) (LW: 1) If there was one team disappointed to partake in their bye last week, it was the Riders. Even though they lost their last time out to the Stampeders two weeks ago, there’s no doubt that Saskatchewan is the class of the CFL heading into the second portion of the season. Sledding will be tougher in the coming weeks with several games against fellow Western Division teams; especially when considering the rash of injuries that exists at the wide receiver position.
Next up: Away @ Edmonton (4-3)
2: Montreal Alouettes (5-3/1-0) (5-3 ATS) (LW: 5) It’s incredibly difficult to let a victory against a 3-5 team move the Als up three spots in the CFL Power Poll, but the manner in which they impressively disposed of division rival Toronto made the decision that much easier. Montreal bettors found their 32-14 victory to be an easy cash, upping their mark to 5-3 both SU and ATS in ’08. QB Anthony Calvillo is on pace to throw for just about 6,000 yards on the season, while RB Avon Cobourne leads the league in both rushing yards and receptions. Both are good candidates for the Most Outstanding Player honors early in the season.
Next up: Bye
3: Edmonton Eskimos (4-3/0-0) (4-2-1 ATS) (LW: 2) The Eskimos did nothing wrong in their bye week, but Montreal’s performance was too good to overlook. The green and gold sport the second best ATS mark in the league at 4-2-1, and would make a really strong case to move back into that No. 2 spot in the poll by knocking off Saskatchewan this week.
Next up: Home vs. Saskatchewan (6-1)
4: British Columbia Lions (4-3/0-0) (3-4 ATS) (LW: 3) Head coach Wally Buono is still insistent that former Notre Dame QB Jarious Jackson will remain his starter over Buck Pierce. Lions fans are calling for the switch to be made, especially since Jackson leads the CFL in interceptions (10) and has the lowest completion percentage amongst starting quarterbacks (55.9 percent). Winning is the perfect remedy for any situation, and a ‘W’ against their hated rivals from Calgary will go a long way in getting the fans back on good terms in BC.
Next up: Home vs. Calgary (4-3)
5: Calgary Stampeders (4-3/0-0) (4-3 ATS) (LW: 5) Calgary put up two very impressive performances against Saskatchewan before heading into its bye week. This next month will determine whether the Stamps are for real or not, as they have BC, Montreal, and two games with Edmonton on the horizon. Former Buckeye Ken-Yon Rambo leads all receivers in receptions (41), and has played a huge role in stretching the opposition’s defense all season.
Next up: Away @ BC (4-3)
6: Toronto Argonauts (3-5/0-1) (2-5-1 ATS) (LW: 6) With all of the talk surrounding the future of Doug Berry with the Blue Bombers, perhaps the coach that should be on the hot seat is Toronto’s Rich Stubler. The Argonauts were +120 favorites to win the East at the outset of the season, but are now a disappointing 3-5 and two games behind Montreal. Friday night marked the second straight extremely uninspired effort for the double blue, dropping the game to the Alouettes by a 32-14 count at home. Their once proud defense has given up 77 points in the last two weeks, and has surrendered the most points in the CFL (242). The bye week came at a perfect time. Their Labour Day Classic against Hamilton lurks in Week 10, and a third loss to the lowly Ti-Cats will surely spell the end for Stubler.
Next up: Bye
7: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-6/1-0) (2-6 ATS) (LW: 8) With his team up by a score in the fourth quarter of their Week 8 game against Hamilton, head coach Doug Berry made the call to go for it on third down and short pinned deep in his own territory. The Bombers converted, and proceeded to march down the field on the Ti-Cats defense. Though they only walked away with a point on the drive, the tide had turned, and the Bombers put away Hamilton 37-24, covering the spread for just the second time this season. The call might’ve saved Berry’s job, but the same probably won’t be said for kicker Alexis Serna, who missed the short field goal that ended the drive with just a point. Serna is now just 16/26 on field goals for the season, easily the lowest in the CFL, and leads the league in the dubious rouge category with nine.
Next up: Bye
8: Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-6/0-1) (3-5 ATS) (LW: 7) Once again, the question around Ivor-Wynne Stadium is why Hamilton can’t play Toronto every week. Their 37-24 loss in Winnipeg dropped the Ti-Cats to 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS against the rest of the league. The good news is that after their bye week, they’ll take on the double blue for the third time this season in the Labour Day Classic. Unlike in years past, Hamilton is fighting hard against all of their opponents, and their reward very well could be a playoff birth when it’s all said and done. There’s still a lot of work to do in Steeltown, though.
Next up: Bye
WUNDERDOG
Game: Atlanta at New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets -1.5 runs
There is no doubt Oliver Perez has great stuff as evidenced by his 15 wins for the Mets last season. He got out of the gate very slowly as his location and control did him in. As a result the Mets watched him walk hitters and give up big hits. As a result, the Mets were only winners in five of his first 13 starts. Perez has been back in the groove since then, and the Mets are now 9-3 over his last 12 starts. He has pitched to a 1.97 ERA over his last nine starts. The Mets would have gone 11-3 in the 14 games they have won if they were giving -1.5 runs. Jo Jo Reyes has been completely lost on the mound for the Braves. He has failed to get out of the third inning in each of his prior two starts, and the Braves have now lost his last six starts by a total score of 42-18. We like the Mets on the runline in this one.
Thursday, August 21
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SASKATCHEWAN (6 - 1) at EDMONTON (4 - 3) - 8/21/2008, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 122-91 ATS (+21.9 Units) in all games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 122-91 ATS (+21.9 Units) in all lined games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 82-49 ATS (+28.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-3 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 4-4 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, August 22
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CALGARY (4 - 3) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (4 - 3) - 8/22/2008, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing on a Friday since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in August games since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-3 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-2 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Trend Sheet
Thursday, August 21
9:00 PM SASKATCHEWAN vs. EDMONTON
Saskatchewan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Saskatchewan is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Edmonton Edmonton is 4-0-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Friday, August 22
10:30 PM CALGARY vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Calgary is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Calgary is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
British Columbia is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
British Columbia is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home
Week 9 CFL games
All four teams this week are coming off a bye week.
Thursday, August 21
Saskatchewan (6-1) @ Edmonton (4-3)-- Roughriders lost first game last week, rallying late at home vs Calgary but falling just short, 3-25; Riders allowed 203 rushing yards, were outgained by 117 yards. Eskimos split pair vs Lions in last two games, as they lost 40-34 at BC Place last week. Edmonton lost 34-13 back in Week 1 in Regina (+4). Five of last six Edmonton games went over the total.
Friday, August 22
Calgary (4-3) @ BC Lions (4-3)-- Lions lost 28-18 at McMahon in Week 1 (-3), getting outrushed 197-65, turning ball over three times. Stamps are 2-2 on road after upsetting Roughriders last week at Taylor Field. BC won last three home games after they lost home opener to Riders. Over is 4-1 in last five Lion games, 3-1 in last four Calgary contests. All four teams in west are over .500; so much for geographic balance.
CFL ATS Previews Week 9
The OVER/UNDER record on the season is 34-26-0 for 56% and you will have noticed in the Stamps vs. Lions game the bookmakers have made their adjustments to this total, which will discourage the public from betting the OVER in this matchup. However, it?s been an explosive season for the offenses and it might take a few more weeks to get those UNDERS tickets to start cashing.
Here are the CFL previews for Week 9. Enjoy!
Saskatchewan (55.5) vs. Edmonton (-3)
Roughriders vs. Eskimos History: The Saskatchewan Roughriders are 9-9-3 (ATS), 5-16 (SU) and the O/U is 9-12-0 vs. the Eskimos in Edmonton since 1996.
Comment: The Roughriders and Eskimos are both coming off a bye week; therefore, both teams will be eager to get rolling this Thursday at Commonwealth Stadium. The Eskimos are anticipating a crowd of 48,000 to 50,000, as 43,000 tickets have already been sold to Thursday?s tilt vs. the top draw in the league, the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Lady luck finally ran out on the Roughriders prior to the Bye week, they fell 30-25 to the Calgary Stampeders and they will have another tough time this week in Edmonton, as they are only 5-16 SU at Commonwealth Stadium since 1996. In fact, the Riders are only 3-13 SU on the road vs. division opponents when the total is 54.5 or higher. Plus, Saskatchewan has been hit with a ton of leg injuries this season, but they?ve still managed to average 29.86 Points For a game, while their stingy defense allows only 23.29 points against. QB Ricky Ray is looking like the old Ricky Ray before he left to the NFL and has found new favorite receivers in Kelly Campbell and Fred Stamps. Furthermore, Edmonton is in a great betting spot this week, they are 11-2 SU as a home favorite in August before a division game on deck. The Eskimos who lost a 40-34 nail bitter in BC two weeks ago might get caught looking head to next week, as they have their biggest regular season game of the year on deck, the BIG Labor Day Classic with the Stampeders at McMahon Stadium. As for the Roughriders, they face the Blue Bombers next Sunday on August 31st. Great way to kick off Week 9!
ATS Calculator Forecast: The ATS Calculator has Saskatchewan winning by 3.25 points and the O/U to land on 54.49 points.
ATS Database Stat of the Game: When EDMONTON team played as Home team as a Favorite - Allowed score 40 points or more against; The Eskimos are 7-3 SU in this role since ?96.
Calgary (58) vs. BC Lions (-3)
Stampeders vs. Lions History: The Calgary Stampeders are 9-8-1 (ATS), 5-13 SU and the O/U is 8-10-0 vs. the Lions at BC Place since 1996.
Comment: Great Wendy?s Friday night matchup this week on TSN in Canada; the Calgary Stampeders travel to BC Place in Vancouver to face the BC Lions. The Stamps and Lions are both coming off their bye week and it?s a dangerous spot for both teams, as both the Stamps are Lions are coming off big wins prior to the Bye week. Calgary won as a road underdog in Saskatchewan 30-25, while the Lions went to 4-3 on the season beating the Edmonton Eskimos who were enjoying a 2-game winning streak at the time. In fact, prior to their tilt with the Leo?s, Edmonton was unbeaten ATS in their last 5 games. Calgary has a great offense with Henry Burris as their field general, keep in mind Dave Dickenson is returning as a back up in BC since leaving the team in the offseason, so there?s always a chance Dickenson can come into the game and give the Stamps a shot in the arm if needed. The Stamps are averaging 29.14 (PF) a game, while their defense has been the main surprise, giving up only 23.71 points per game. However, the Stamps are in a bad betting spot, they are only 2-10 SU as a Road Underdog vs. a division foe, while the total is 54.5 or higher. Plus, don?t forget the big Labor Day classic on deck for Calgary, as they have the Eskimos in Week 10 in the nationally televised game where the whole country is paying attention to this main event. As for the Lions, they have seen their last 3 games go OVER the posted total in their last 3 matches and that?s why you?ve seen the line makers have made their adjustments with a high total for this contest. During the last 3 season, it seems Wally Buono?s teams seem to kick it up a notch after Week 8, as they are 13-3 SU as a Home Team during the month of August between Week 8 to 12. To dig a bit deeper into this statistic, the BC Lions are 10-1-1 SU the last 3 years during Week 8 to 12, so look for the Leo?s to maybe stick to this trend. The warning shot for the Lions is their next game, as they might be looking ahead subconsciously with the surging Montreal Alouettes on deck who are making some noise now in the Eastern Division.
ATS Calculator Forecast: The ATS Calculator has Calgary winning by 3.89 points and the O/U to land on 56.12 points.
ATS Database Stat of the Game: When ANY CFL team played as Road team as a Underdog -Playing on Friday -Total is 54.5 or more - Coming off a 1 ATS; The UNDER is 12-3-1 for the Road Dog (Calgary) in this situation since 1996.
CFL betting: Week 9 preview and picks
By CHARLES-ANDRÉ MARCHAND
Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-1) at Edmonton Eskimos (4-3) (Edmonton by 2.5)
Both teams are coming off a bye week and an expected crowd of 50,000 will be cheering the Eskimos at Commonwealth Stadium. This makes the Eskimos a interesting bet this week, specially knowing that they rarely lose at home and the Roughriders only won five times in their last 21 visits in Edmonton. Furthermore, the Roughriders have plagued with injuries and Edmonton’s quarterback Ricky Ray has three new favourite targets in Kamau Peterson, Fred Stamps and Kelly Campbell. In his last game, he threw for 436 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. Peterson had two touchdown receptions in that game won by B.C. 40-34. The Roughriders also had their first lost of the season before the bye week, 30-25 to the Calgary Stampeders. Marcus Crandell threw for 259 yards, completing 20-of-33 pass attempts with two touchdowns. Go with the Eskimos on this one.
Pick: Edmonton
Calgary Stampeders (4-3) at British Columbia Lions (4-3) (British Columbia by 2.5)
Again, these two teams are coming off a bye week. In Week 7, the Stampeders won 30-25 against Saskatchewan while the Lions won against the Eskimos, 40-34. Both teams can score a lots of points but Calgary has shown great skills on the defensive side of the game, allowing only 23,71 points per game. Calgary has more passing and rushing yards than B.C., they give up less turnovers and are better stopping the run. This will be the return of Dave Dickenson at B.C. Place since he left the Lions and joined the Stampeders as a backup quarterback to Henry Burris who completed 22-of-33 attempts for 214 yards and one touchdown in Week 7. Running Back Joffrey Reynolds will also be an offensive threat for the Stampeders. Against the Roughriders, he ran for 128 yards off 24 carries with a touchdown. After a 0-2 start, the Lions, who finished first in the West four years in a row, won four of their last five games. Over the last few years, the Lions have been very tough to beat in the second half of the season. This should be a great game, but expect the Lions to prevail.
Pick: Lions