CFP Action Report

CFP Action Report
December 28, 2017
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

While Oklahoma opened as high as a 2-point favorite for the Rose Bowl, the first of two College Football Playoff semifinals on New Year’s Day (5 p.m. ET, ESPN), early action on Georgia from sharp bettors has flipped the line, and Bulldogs are now the chalk. As of Thursday, four days before kickoff, most Vegas sports books are dealing Georgia -2, while -1.5 is available for gamblers looking to lay the points. The total is about 60.

“We opened up Oklahoma -1. I just thought Oklahoma’s got better personnel offensively. Defensively, maybe they’re a little weaker than the Georgia side, maybe that’s the reason for the move,” said John Avello, sports book director at the Wynn.

Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, said this week that his book has written 2.5 times more action on Georgia than on Oklahoma. Since the ‘Dawgs became the chalk, though, the sharp money has ceased.

“Wiseguys took Georgia as a dog and at pick, but that’s stopped since the line has flipped,” Simbal said.

Still, with the book weighted on Georgia, coupled with bets on the SEC squad to win the national championship, CG is firmly in the Sooners’ corner.

“We do worse to Georgia in the futures. In fact, they’re our only red number,” Simbal said. “We do pretty good to everybody else, so we would love to beat them in this game to get them out of there and win the game as well.”

At William Hill U.S., while the wiseguys are backing Georgia, casual gamblers are taking their shots on the short underdog to win the game outright.

“We’re dead-even to the game. Public’s on Oklahoma money line (currently +110), which is not a shock, but sharps are definitely on Georgia," said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill’s head of trading.

By Bogdanovich’s estimation, only about 5-10 percent of the eventual total handle had been written as of the time we talked Wednesday. Our bookmakers anticipate more public money on Oklahoma as kickoff approaches. “I think Oklahoma will get public money because they’re a little more popular with (Heisman winner Baker) Mayfield," Simbal said.

Avello added of casual bettors, “I think they’re going to take Oklahoma, so I think the game’s coming back...But I can’t see this game closing much more than 1 (either way).”

Alabama (-3, 47) vs. Clemson - Sugar Bowl, New Orleans
January 1, 8:45 p.m. ET, ESPN

Wiseguys have bet Alabama from openers of -1 and -1.5 to -3 at most shops in Vegas, and Simbal said CG has written three times as much action on the Crimson Tide than it has on Clemson.

The books are happy to need Clemson on New Year’s Day.

Chris Andrews, sports book director at the South Point, told us earlier this month he thought Clemson should be the favorite, a sentiment shared by Bogdanovich and Avello.

“I like Clemson, I don’t think they should be the dog," Bogdanovich said. “It looks like a pick ‘em game. Three looks like a dead-take. Clemson’s got the better defense, their quarterback (Kelly Bryant) is getting better. I think Clemson +3 is the way to look.”

The Wynn is the only shop in Las Vegas that hasn’t adjusted up to the key number, dealing Alabama -2.5 (-120) as of Thursday.

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“We haven’t gone to 3, and I don’t want to go to 3,” Avello said. “I’m not sure Alabama’s the right side in this game. They’ve had a good season, they’ve got good personnel...I like their quarterback (Jalen Hurts) for a college quarterback – he runs like a running back, very difficult (for defenses), makes good decisions. I like the team, it’s just that Clemson, they’re solid, man. This not an easy game right here, this is not a gimme for Alabama.”

The public, predictably, is on Clemson to win outright.

“They see, ‘Wow, I can get +130,’ so it’s an automatic. It’s just like the Super Bowl,” Bogdanovich said. “They don’t have to lay 11/10 (with a spread bet at +3), they can take +130, and (Clemson is) ranked No. 1 and they beat this team last year. They haven’t seen Clemson lose in a while (Oct. 13 at Syracuse), they’ve seen Alabama lose (more recently, Nov. 25 at Auburn)."

Avello, though, anticipates plenty of casual bettors jumping on the rare opportunity to lay a small number with ‘Bama.

Said Bogdanovich, “There’s still going to be plenty of Alabama backers, but the big decision (for the book) is going to be beating Clemson on the money line."

The handle will be bigger on Alabama-Clemson than for Georgia-Oklahoma since it’s the second of the two, he added.

The perfect outcome for books, as is often the case, is the favorite winning the game but not covering the point spread. With a spread of a field goal, that’s not a big window.

“I have a feeling Alabama (winning by) 1 or 2 would be a monster score for the books,” Bogdanovich said.

Before we get into some of other intriguing games remaining on the bowl game slate, a word of advice from one of our bookmaking friends: Bowl games, for a multitude of reasons, are difficult to handicap. There’s as long as a five-week layoff for many of these teams; it’s often tough to guess how motivated they’ll be; there are seldom common opponents to use as frames of reference; NFL-bound players sometimes decide not to play; and there are always injuries and suspensions to consider.

“You should proceed with caution in the bowl games, because there are just so many variables,” Bogdanovich said.

USC vs. Ohio State (-7.5, 65) - Cotton Bowl, Arlington, TX
Dec. 29, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Sharps have “bet Ohio State in a big way,” according to Simbal, whose shop moved the Buckeyes from -6.5 to -8 because of that action.

Over-the-counter bets, including typical $50 and $100 plays from tourists, have been slightly weighted on the favorite, but Ohio State has drawn 15 times more money on CG’s app, where wiseguys play.

Simbal anticipates late public money on USC, thanks to Vegas’ proximity to Southern California.

“We’ll get a lot of public money specifically because that game is on Friday night game. A lot of people are off this week, so we’ll be getting people coming in from L.A. and (elsewhere in) California for New Year’s weekend,” he said. “This will be a Pros vs. Joes game, for sure.”

Many of those Joes, as is their tendency, will take the plus-side of the money line, providing a fat window for books to profit.

“If Ohio State wins (by) one through seven, we’ll be in pretty good shape; one through six, we’ll scoop everything,” Simbal said.

Washington vs. Penn State (-2, 55) - PlayStation Fiesta, Glendale, AZ
Dec. 30, 4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

After Penn State opened -3, the line is down to -2 or -2.5 around Las Vegas.

“There’s a move on Washington, let’s face it,” Avello said. “You wanna go with coaching matchups, I think you’ve gotta give it to Washington.”

That doesn’t necessarily mean Avello would be on the 'dog if he were on the other side of the counter. Led by Saquon Barkley, Penn State’s a formidable club, he stresses.

Miami vs. Wisconsin (-5.5, 45) - Capital One Orange Bowl, Miami
Dec. 30, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

Sharps are taking the points early, pushing the spread down from an opener of Wisconsin -6.5 to -5.5 at most shops.

“Wisconsin’s overall the better team, but Miami’s the quicker team,” Avello said.

Avello also offered the usual knock against the Badgers – their weak schedule.

“I think the only team they beat that is a worthwhile win has gotta be Michigan,” he said. “The rest of the schedule is terrible. There are very few teams on their schedule that were even in a top bowl.”

Also, the Orange Bowl is held at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami’s home field, giving the Hurricanes another advantage.

“I understand the move,” Avello said of the early action.

LSU (-3) vs. Notre Dame - Citrus Bowl, Orlando
Jan. 1, 1:00 p.m. ET, ABC

Notre Dame opened -1 at the Wynn, but pro bettors have weighed in on LSU, making the Tigers a field-goal favorite, even to -3.5 on some boards. That’s one of more significant moves of all the bowl games.

“Why are they betting LSU? They finished the season well,” Avello said, noting the Tigers’ only loss in their last seven games came at Alabama.

“Notre Dame had their troubles down the stretch,” Avello added. “After the Miami game, they never looked like they recovered, but they’re still a pretty good team.

“The thing about Notre Dame is if you stop the run, you should stop the team. That’s the way it’s been, and maybe that’s why they’re playing LSU.”

LSU’s rush defense is ranked 24th in the nation.