Championship Weekend Questions
By Joe Nelson
How do teams handle back-to-back-to-back road games?
The results for teams facing a third straight road playoff game are not very favorable as only two of eight teams in that situation have advanced (3-5 ATS), with the 1985-86 New England Patriots and the 2005-06 Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh did go on to win the Super Bowl so there is hope for both the Jets and the Packers who are facing that challenging situation this week. Two years ago the same situation arouse with teams in both conferences playing in a third consecutive playoff road game as wild card teams but both home teams won that year as Arizona beat Philadelphia and Pittsburgh beat Baltimore. In the regular season and playoffs combined, teams in a third straight road game have gone 76-146 S/U since 1980, winning just over 34 percent of the time. The ATS numbers are not much better with those teams going 95-126-1 for less than 43 percent. While many feel that home field advantage has been diluted in recent years with more modern and less intimate stadiums and improved travel conditions a more recent snapshot does not suggest significant improvement. Since 1999 teams in third straight road games are just 23-40 S/U (36.5%), and 27-36 ATS (42.8%). So the odds are against the Jets and the Packers this week by those numbers but it is likely rare to see a situation where the road team may be considered the better team in the third straight road game playoff situation, as many would argue in one or both cases this week as this is not a situation where the host was a dominating top seed on either side.
How do home underdogs do in championship games?
With Green Bay opening as road favorites we will have the tenth conference championship game since the early 1980s with a home underdog hosting the title game. It has happened just three times in the last ten seasons, occurring last two years ago as Arizona hosted Philadelphia. Home underdogs in the conference championship are 5-4 S/U and ATS and it is obviously too small of a sample to invoke meaningful data. The last road favorite to win was New England following the 2004 season when they won at Pittsburgh. The last two instances of road favoritism in the conference championship were two of three total instances in the last three decades where the line was three or higher. The Cardinals were the largest home underdog at +3.5. The last time the Packers went to the Super Bowl they did win as road favorites to get there, beating San Francisco 24-21 as -2.5 favorites. Green Bay lost to Denver that year in the Super Bowl who also won as road favorites in Pittsburgh to move on the Super Bowl. Dallas incredibly lost three straight NFC championships as road favorites in the early ‘80s, something Cowboys fans surely will not enjoy being reminded this week as preparations for the Super Bowl in Texas are being made, without the Cowboys as a factor of course.
How do teams that return to the championship game after losing the previous year do?
The Jets are back in the AFC championship this season after losing in the AFC championship last season. It is a remarkable feat but it has been somewhat common. Since the championship games following the 1970 season, losing teams that return to the championship game are 12-14 S/U. In the three most recent instances, the team that got back to the championship game ended up victorious the following year with New England getting to the Super Bowl after the 2007 season after losing to the Colts the previous year in the AFC championship game. There was redemption on both sides after the 2004 season as Pittsburgh beat Denver to advance to the Super Bowl after losing to New England the previous season and Philadelphia also finally got to the Super Bowl after three consecutive NFC championship game losses, beating Atlanta after the 2004 season. Since the championship games following the 1993 season, teams in the championship game return mode after defeat the previous season are actually 7-3 S/U as most of the failures in our historical sample came in the 1970s and 1980s with the Raiders and Cowboys responsible for three championship game repeat failures each. So there may actually be an advantage for the Jets returning to the big game after tasting defeat, although the Jets will be on the road again, something that has made for a more difficult return to the championship game. Teams on the road back in the championship game after losing the previous year are just 3-9 S/U since 1970. The Jets also of course are 0-3 all-time in the AFC championship game but they do have a Super Bowl title from before the championship game set-up started.
What has happened in the recent history of the Packers/Bears series?
This historic series has gone in streaks with the Bears dominating the ‘80s and the early ‘90s while Green Bay actually won ten straight meetings in the mid-‘90s. The last few years have been back-and-forth as the Bears have a 7-5 edge over the last six seasons (6-5-1 ATS). Green Bay and Chicago split in the regular season this season but both games were very close, the Bears did cover in both instances winning as slight home underdogs early in the year and covering as inflated underdogs to close the season in a game that was more critical to the Packers. Home underdogs have not done well in this series going 4-17 S/U since 1980 (8-12-1 ATS). The Bears were 3-1 S/U as home underdogs this season while the Packers were 2-3 S/U and ATS as road favorites this season while also losing last season in the playoffs as road favorites. The over/under is 15-15 in the last 30 meetings between these teams in Chicago although the ‘under’ has hit in five of the last six meetings.
What has happened in the recent history of the Jets/Steelers series?
The Jets and the Steelers do not meet often but the Steelers have had an overwhelming edge going 11-4 S/U and ATS since 1981. The Jets did win 22-17 this season in Pittsburgh and the Jets have covered in four of the last five meetings going back to 2003. The ‘under’ is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings going back to 1984 and this will be a higher total than nine of the previous ten meetings between these teams. Under Rex Ryan the Jets are 8-5 S/U and ATS as road underdogs including 6-2 S/U and ATS when an underdog of less than five points. Under Mike Tomlin the Steelers are 47-22 S/U and 36-22-1 ATS as home favorites but just 16-15 (15-15-1 ATS) as home favorites of four or less. The Steelers are 4-1 S/U and ATS as home favorites in the playoffs under Tomlin.