Cincinnati Bearcats 2016 CFB Season Win Total
By Brandon Shively
Covers.com
The Cincinnati Bearcats have enjoyed winning seasons (7 or more wins) in nine of the last ten seasons. This line opened up at Cincy Over 6.5 (-130) and has since been bet up to 7.5. However, when I broke down the Bearcats schedule, I see them hitting 8 or 9 wins this year and I will advise a 1* wager on OVER 7.5 wins (+100).
This will be Tommy Tuberville’s 4th year as the Bearcats head coach and he has produced winning seasons the previous 3 years (9,9, and 7 wins). This 4th year brings the team stability as the Bearcats went through 5 head coaches in a 7 year span and still maintained a winning record.
Cincinnati is strong at the quarterback position with NFL prospect Gunner Kiel. Kiel is one of the most accurate passers in the nation when healthy. Hayden Moore started 3 games last year so the Bearcats have some experience backing up Moore is something was to happen to him. The Bearcats will go to more of a pro-style offense this season to help off-set the losses of their top 6 receivers this season. The receivers are the only weak spot for this team, but Tubberville is a savvy coach that knows how to get a maximized return from his players. Fortunately in 2016 they have key offensive linemen that are upperclassmen along with two solid running backs in Mike Boone and Tion Green. Boone averaged 7.2 yards per carry last season. They add in two transfers at receiver and make good use of their senior tight end, D.J Dowdy. While the offense might not be as explosive, the QB is highly accurate, experienced, and can manage a game behind the offensive line and talented running backs. On the defensive side of the ball is where the Bearcats are going to win games this season though I believe. The defensive line was a weakness last year but will be a strength this season as 7 of their top 8 return. They also get 7 of their top 8 back in the secondary and I see this team being able to matchup with every team they play as they will be able to contain the run and and passing game.
This year the Bearcats have a schedule that is very favorable not playing any back to back road games and of their 5 road games, Temple is the only team that had a winning season last year. While Temple beat Cincy last year, the Bearcats outgained them by 261 yards and the Owls defense figures to be down this year. While this will be their toughest road game, it will be a winnable one. Their toughest home game will be on a Thursday night against Houston. The Bearcats will be playing with revenge from last year’s loss despite out gaining Houston by 162 yards. Thursday night is historically known for upsets and I think Cincy will be in position to pull it off. In all actuality, I will call for them to win 1 of these 2 games mentioned above. That leaves us needing 7 more wins.
Opening at home vs Tenn Martin, back to back home games vs USF and Miami Ohio puts us at four wins. Playing East Carolina off a bye week puts us at 5 wins. The Pirates only have 11 returning starters and are learning a new offense and defense under new coaches. They play Memphis at home and will be playing with revenge from last year’s 53-46 loss. I expect the Bearcats being over a TD favorite in this game as the Memphis Tigers will not be nearly as good without Paxton Lynch and with Justin Fuentes going to Virginia Tech along with all of his assistants. That brings us to 6 wins with five games I have not mentioned. A road game at Purdue which is winnable. A road game at UConn which is winnable. A road game at UCF which is winnable and a road game at Tulsa that is also winnable. These games are on the road, but I have the Bearcats winning at least two of these games. The only game I did not mention is a home game vs BYU as I think BYU has a shot of beating the Bearcats, but Cincy will be playing with revenge after having to play in the altitude last year and without Gunner Kiel and BYU’s offense should not be nearly as good this season and there is a big drop-off in their coaches. They will be motivated here and should be favored so a win is also possible here.
I have the Bearcats winning 9 games this season or a minimum of 8 games, topping the projected season win total of 7.5 wins.