Cincy, Pitt and a spot in the BCS
By Judd Hall
The Big East is one of three BCS conferences that doesn’t have a championship game.That doesn’t mean the schedule can’t work a de facto championship tilt into the mix. We’ve got just such a contest on tap on Saturday as the Bearcats travel to the Steel City for a showdown with Pittsburgh on ABC at noon EST.
Cincinnati (11-0 straight up, 6-4 against the spread) wasn’t expected to make another run at the Big East championship, but that’s exactly where Brian Kelly has his squad situated. And they’ve done it with a unit that they didn’t expect to come through.
The Bearcats were expected to have an offense that can light up a scoreboard this season. They haven’t disappointed in that respect by ranking fourth nationally with 472.7 yards per game on the attack in 2009.
Cincy’s offensive success is predicated on how well its passing game is doing. The aerial assault has done the trick this year as the ‘Cats are ranked sixth in the country by averaging 322.0 yards per game and No. 6 in scoring offense with 39.7 points per game. Even more impressive about those stats is that the Bearcats have two quarterbacks that can run the offense.
Tony Pike was getting a lot of love from the media for the Heisman Trophy early in the year before suffering a forearm injury against South Florida. It’s not hard to understand why when you see that he’s completing 65 percent of his passes for the year for 2,048 yards, 23 touchdowns and only three picks.
When Pike was down for three weeks, Zach Collaros showed that the future is bright with him under center. The sophomore signal caller has connected on 75 percent of his passes for 1,436 yards with 10 scores and a pair of picks.
Of course, you can have numbers like those when a probable first round draft pick like Mardy Gilyard to catch your passes. Gilyard is 12th in the nation with 93.8 receiving yards per game and has tallied 10 touchdowns during his senior campaign.
The major issue for the Bearcats at the start of the year was how a defense that is returning one starter from 2008 would fare. The results after 11 games have been extremely positive. Cincy gave up 321.9 YPG last season to rank 31st. In 2009, they’re 47th overall in total defense, surrendering 348.6 YPG. Although there is reason for concern on the stopping unit as they’ve given up 190.7 rushing yards over their last three contests.
That kind of number can be music to Pittsburgh’s (9-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) ears after falling to the Mountaineers in last Saturday’s “Backyard Brawl,” 19-16. Despite the setback in an obvious look-ahead spot, the Panthers still have a chance to win the Big East thanks to Dion Lewis in the backfield.
Lewis has been running over a lot of opponents this season as he’s fourth in the nation with 131.5 YPG on the ground. Last week, he had a great outing with 155 yards on 26 carries. However, Lewis was held without a touchdown for the first time since Oct. 10 against Connecticut.
You’d probably think that Pitt is nothing more than a running team, but you’d be way off base. The Panthers are averaging 218.9 passing yards per game this year. And the man with the plan under center is Bill Stull. Pittsburgh’s signal caller is in the Top 10 in passing efficiency at 153.04. But he is coming off of his worst game of the year, completing 16 of 30 passes for 179 yards with two picks against West Virginia.
Stull does have the benefit of knowing that he’s got a great defense to stop the opposition. Pittsburgh ranks 25th in total defense with 319.6 yards per game and 15th in scoring defense, allowing 17.7 PPG in 2009.
The sportsbooks aren’t ready to make anyone an overwhelming favorite for this tilt as Cincy is just a 1 ½-point road “chalk” with a total of 58. Bettors can take the Panthers to win outright for a modest plus-115 return (risk $100 to win $115).
That line might have something to do with the fact that the last two head-to-head meetings were decided by seven-points.
Last year, the Bearcats needed Pike to complete 81 percent of his passes for 309 yards and three touchdowns to win 28-21 as six-point home favorites. Stull was rocked for seven sacks last season, while throwing for one score and an interception. It also hurts your chances that you convert just two of 10 third-downs like Pittsburgh did.
Cincinnati has been a quality play when listed as a road “chalk” in Big East play recently, going 4-1 SU and ATS since November 2007. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in those spots as well.
While the Bearcats have been a great road bet, we can’t forget the fact that Pittsburgh is 6-0 SU and 3-2 ATS at Heinz Field this year. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in those home tilts.