Close Calls - Week 3
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 3 of the NFL regular season.
Buffalo Bills (+5½) 33, Arizona Cardinals 18 (48): The Bills had an inspired performance to take a 17-0 lead that grew to 30-7 in the second half as there wasn’t much drama in the spread result in this upset. Heading into the fourth quarter, the ‘over’ looked promising with 43 points and a 60-yard field goal with about 10 minutes to go left the game needing just one more score to reach the number. Neither offense did much in the fourth quarter, but the Bills defense turned an interception into a short field drive for another field goal and then added a safety late in the game as the two offensive scoring drives in the final frame came on drives of 4 and 3 yards for just enough for the ‘over’ to hit.
Baltimore Ravens (-2) 19, Jacksonville Jaguars 17 (44½): Baltimore took a 13-7 lead into the half in what proved to be a sloppy AFC clash for both offenses as each side had three turnovers and fewer than 300 yards. By the end of the third quarter, the Jaguars trailed 16-14, right even with the closing spread though early in the week Baltimore was at a ‘pick’ or -1 before climbing as high as -2½ Sunday morning. The Jaguars looked ready to pick up their first win of the season taking advantage of a short field halfway through the final frame and leading 17-16 after a field goal.
The next three possessions featured three interceptions in the span of nine offensive plays and Jacksonville ended up with the ball in Baltimore territory with about three minutes to go, holding a one-point lead as a slight underdog. The Jaguars took a costly third down sack to back-up the field goal attempt and the 52-yarder was blocked, giving the Ravens the ball near midfield. Baltimore couldn’t pick up a third-and-short to melt the remaining clock, but with just over a minute to go Justin Tucker hit a 54-yard field goal to put Baltimore up by two and flipping the spread result for many in the process. Jacksonville’s final drive predictably ended in an interception as the Jaguars fell to 0-3.
Miami Dolphins (-10) 30, Cleveland Browns 24 (42½): The Browns saw an early lead dissolve as early in the fourth quarter Miami climbed past the heavy home favorite spread with a 24-13 advantage. The ‘over’ hit a few minutes later on a Terrelle Pryor touchdown run for the Browns and with a successful two-point conversion, the Browns were within three and in good shape for the underdog cover, though the spread varied from -9 up to -10½ at various points in the weekend and opened as low -7 before it was clear that rookie Cody Kessler would be starting for the Browns. Cleveland would tie the game with about three minutes to go and a Ryan Tannehill fumble gave Cleveland a golden opportunity to cash hefty moneyline tickets but new kicker Cody Parkey missed left from 46 yards as time expired. In overtime, both teams punted on their first possessions, but a marginal Cleveland effort had Miami starting just outside of field goal range and in three plays the Dolphins found the end zone to win, saving a lot of folks in survivor pools as well.
Washington Redskins (+3½) 29, New York Giants 27 (47): This NFC East clash had the makings of a back-and-forth affair and it didn’t disappoint as Washington clawed back from an early 21-9 deficit. Early in the third quarter, Washington took its first lead with a 55-yard pass play to lead by two, but New York took a one-point lead into the final quarter with a short field goal. Washington hit a field goal on the first play of the fourth quarter to clinch the ‘over’, going back in front by two, but New York again hit a short field goal go back in front by one with just under eight minutes to go. Washington turned in a 10-play drive to again go ahead just after the two-minute warning, but a two-point lead for the underdog wasn’t immune to a late touchdown giving the Giants the edge. Eli Manning was picked off near midfield as Washington held on for its first win.
Green Bay Packers (-6) 34, Detroit Lions 27 (47½): The Packers bounced back coming off the Sunday night loss in Minnesota as they took a 31-3 lead in the home opener at Lambeau Field. The Lions hit a big play to trim into the margin just before halftime, but entering the fourth quarter Detroit still trailed by 17 points. The line on this game opened as high as -8½ before sliding all the way to -6 and the game wound up landing in the middle as the Lions scored 10 fourth quarter points and Green Bay was able to take a knee in Detroit territory to end the game.
Seattle Seahawks (-10½) 37, San Francisco 49ers 18 (42): Those backing Seattle felt comfortable with a quick 24-3 edge for the Seahawks at the half though there was some concern with Russell Wilson leaving the game. Those on the ‘over’ saw the pace slow dramatically with only a pair of short field goals in the third quarter as 33 points were scored through three quarters. A Seattle touchdown from Trevone Boykin put the figure at 40 early in the fourth quarter and San Francisco finally contributed to the scoring late with two touchdowns in the final eight minutes to secure the ‘over’.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3½) 34, Pittsburgh Steelers 3 (46½): When backing the ‘over’ in a Steelers game, one can usually assume Pittsburgh will find the end zone a few times but at the half the upstart Eagles led 13-3. The scoring pace picked up in the third quarter, but it was one-sided with three Philadelphia touchdowns to reach 37 points by the start of the final quarter. Down by 31 points, Pittsburgh had to go for it in unfavorable situations and they continued to come away empty while the Eagles were conservative in milking the clock late as the ‘under’ held on with no scoring in the final quarter.
Indianapolis Colts (-1) 26, San Diego Chargers 22 (51½): This afternoon AFC tilt proved to be the roller coaster game of the week starting with a severe line move as the Colts opened at -3 and dropped all week to eventually briefly hit ‘pick’em’ before climbing back to -2 and then closing back down at -1. For most of the game, that timing looked critical with a 13-13 game at the half after a defensive touchdown for the Chargers in the final minute of the second quarter. San Diego missed an extra-point try after a third quarter touchdown as the Colts took a 20-19 lead heading into the fourth quarter.
The Chargers reached the Indianapolis 4-yard line halfway through the final frame, but wound up settling for a field goal and a two-point advantage. The Chargers held on defense to get the ball back, but then stalled near midfield to punt back to the Colts with just over two minutes to go. After converting a 4th-and 7 just after the two-minute warning, the Colts hit a big play with the help of defender that fell as T.Y. Hilton was wide open for a 63-yard score with just over a minute to go, putting Indianapolis up by four. The two-point conversion attempt failed to keep the total just ‘under’ at 48, but the Chargers still had some time to work with. With still over a minute to go, Philip Rivers hit Hunter Henry up the middle for a big gain, but he fumbled to end the threat and getting the ball back with one final play the Chargers fumbled again on a desperation play.
Dallas Cowboys (-6) 31, Chicago Bears 17 (45): There was strong yardage production on both sides Sunday night, but Dallas had a commanding 24-3 lead at the break and there were only seven points added in the third quarter as the scoring pace slowed. Dallas put the game away with an 88-yard drive to lead 31-10 with nine minutes to go but those on the ‘over’ still needed another touchdown. With the game out of hand, the Bears found the end zone to get the total to 48, but any hope of a miracle comeback ended with a fumble in Dallas territory just ahead of the two-minute warning.