Coaches vs. Pointspread
By Bruce Marshall
We’ve seen enough football to know that pointspread trends don’t last forever. But they can continue for a while, and many coaches have developed their own patterns spread and "totals" performance through the years. And for that reason, it’s always a good idea to review each NFL coach and his current/past spread trends when each season begins. Following is an updated look at "NFL Coaches vs. Pointspread" after the first week of the 2010 campaign
Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona... Solid numbers as an underdog (17-9 overall), including a 7-1 mark in that role a year ago and 6-1 at U of P Stadium since 2007. Whisenhunt’s teams are also 17-10 vs. the line as host the first three years of his tenure in the desert. Note, however, a recent change in "totals" patterns, as after last week’s Rams opener, Whisenhunt’s Cards are now "under" 12-7 in their last 19 games, afer "over" 25-11 previously.
Mike Smith, Atlanta... If nothing else, Smith has provided stability in Atlanta after the end of the Jim Mora, Jr. regime and Bobby Petrino’s disastrous one-year run that was turned inside-out by Michael Vick’s off-field issues. Smith’s Falcons are 20-14 overall vs. the number since 2008 and 11-5 vs. the number at the Georgia Dome.
John Harbaugh, Baltimore... The Ravens, who had gone stale toward the end of the Brian Billick regime, made an immediate turnaround once Harbaugh took over in 2008, and have been the only AFC team to win a playoff game each of the past two seasons. Following Monday’s win vs. the Jets, Harbaugh is now a noteworthy 24-13 vs. the number, and have made a nice fortress out of M&T Bank Stadium, covering 11 of 16 at home.
Chan Gailey, Buffalo... Gailey returns to the NFL head coaching ranks for the first time since 1998-99 at Dallas, where it might surprise some that Gailey’s Cowboys reached the playoffs each of those years (though losing in the wild card round both times). Noteworthy in those years was an 11-5-1 spread mark at home (9-4-1 as home chalk), although that host role did not work for Gailey in his 2010 opener with the Bills. At Georgia Tech from 2002-07, Gailey’s teams were only 33-38-3 vs. the line, including a representative 17-13 as a dog, but only 16-25 as chalk.
John Fox, Carolina... At one point, Fox’s Panther teams were noted for their underdog prowess, but that hasn’t been as pronounced lately, with an 18-18 mark as the "short" following last week’s opening loss at the Giants; Fox’s Carolina teams were 20-7 as a dog during his first three seasons on the job between 2002-04. Fox is also 13-6 in his last 19 chances as a road favorite, although his Panthers don’t figure to be in that role too often this season. Carolina is also "under" 32-16 at home on Fox’s watch since 2004.
Lovie Smith, Chicago... Lovie’s 6-season coaching career in Chicago hit a crescendo in that Super Bowl XLI appearance vs. the Colts, but it’s been mostly downhill since. Lovie’s Bears are 19-29 vs. the number since that Super Bowl loss, and have not offered much value as a dog that span, either, dropping 16 of 24 getting points.
Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati... Lewis has endured a real pointspread rollercoaster during his career as Cincy HC which began back in 2003. The Bengals, notorious for pointspread streaks during Lewis’ years, are currently on a 1-6 run vs. the number since late last season after covering 9 of their previous 12. Mostly, however, Lewis’ Bengals have underachieved as a favorite, dropping all 8 as chalk last season, and now 4-17 their last 21 in that role. Cincy is also "under" 19-8 for Lewis its last 27 at Paul Brown Stadium since late in the 2006 campaign.
Eric Mangini, Cleveland... Mangini’s three years with the Jets were marked by indifferent spread form after a surprising run to the playoffs during his first season in charge in 2006. Mangini’s Jets were just 13-18-1 vs. the number his last two seasons (2007-08) after an 11-6 spread mark in that unexpected ‘06 run. The Browns turned around their 2009 campaign by covering their last 7 games after a very slow break from the gate, but the 2010 campaign began with a disturbing loss at Tampa Bay.
Wade Phillips, Dallas... Phillips has made several stops in his long coaching career, becoming something of a football version of Dave Bristol, with Dallas his fifth heading coaching position in the league (albeit two of his previous HC gigs, at New Orleans and Atlanta, were of the interim variety). But after last Sunday’s bitter loss at Washington, Phillips is level at 26-26 vs. the number since ‘07 with the Cowboys, and middling in most spread categories, save for a slightly subpar mark as dog (3-6).
Josh McDaniels, Denver... Limited data on young Josh, beginning only his second year as a head coach. But it’s worth noting that his Broncos have been sliding since winning and covering their first six games out of the chute last season, just 2-9 SU an 3-8 vs. the number in the 11 games since.
Jim Schwartz, Detroit... Like McDaniels, it’s still early days for Schwartz, just starting his second season in Detroit. Inheriting a winless mess with the Lions, Schwartz posted a 4-10-2 spread mark in his first trip around the head coaching track last season, although he did get a narrow cover in the 2010 opener vs. the Bears.
Mike McCarthy, Green Bay... McCarthy has emerged as a pointspread force, now posting a 36-18 spread mark his last 54 on the board since late in his first season as Packers HC in 2006. Of particular interest is a 16-5 mark his last 21 as a dog since midway in the 06 campaign. McCarthy’s Packers are also "over" 32-20 since 2007.
Gary Kubiak, Houston... Now embarking upon his fifth year with the Texans, Kubiak’s most noteworthy trend has been success as a home underdog, in which he has covered 8 of his last 9 chances after last week’s upset win over Indy. Overall numbers, however, are close to .500 across the board.
Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis... Caldwell certainly inherited a nice situation with Peyton Manning and the Colts. Caldwell’s first Colts team in ‘09 performed much like predecessor Tony Dungy’s Indy editions, for which Caldwell served as defensive coordinator. We’ll watch closely, however, if the strongest Caldwell/Colt spread trend in ‘09 (6-1 as road chalk) can continue in 2010 after losing the opener as a short-priced favorite at Houston.
Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville... The Jags’ opening win vs. Denver might signal a much-needed turnaround for Del Rio, whose J’ville teams were just 9-23 vs. the line the past two seasons. Despite the cover against the Broncos, Del Rio’s Jags are still only 8-17 as chalk since late 2006, and his once solid dog record has slipped to just 14-14 the past three years.
Todd Haley, Kansas City... Things are looking a little better for Haley after Monday night’s win over the Chargers. That home success could signal a turnaround in spread fortunes for the Chiefs, who were only 2-6 vs. the number at Arrowhead in Haley’s first season a year ago, continuing a trend back to the last two Herm Edwards years when KC was just 4-11 vs. the line at home. Haley’s Chiefs have now covered 8 of their last 13 on the board after opening with four straight spread losses (and 5 SU defeats) a year ago.
Tony Sparano, Miami... Sparano’s Dolphins have covered 10 of their last 12 as a road dog since early in the 2008 campaign, Sparano’s first as Dolphins HC. But his Miami teams are just 1-6 as home chalk since ‘08. The Dolphins were also a surprising 7-1 "over" at home for Sparano last season.
Brad Childress, Minnesota... The bald and bearded Childress benefited from Brett Favre’s presence a year ago, especially at the Metrodome where the Vikings were 6-2 vs. the number (they had been 3-8 their previous 11 vs. the line as host). But for most of Childress’ run at Minnesota since 2006, his Vikes have been a 50-50 spread proposition in nearly all categories.
Bill Belichick, New England... Perhaps Belichick is ready to revive the Patriots as a pointspread force once more after fortunes began to tail off late in the memorable 2007 campaign. Entering this season, Belichick’s Patriots had dropped 23 of their last 41 spread decision since late in 2007, but a win in the opener over Cincy has lifted spirits in Foxborough. Over his ten-year career with New England, Belichick has not surprisingly offered solid value as a dog (34-17 in role), and as been a fairly consistent winner on the road (52-35 vs. line since 2000).
Sean Payton, New Orleans... Despite all of the recent excitement in New Orleans, remember that Payton’s Saints are just 10-10 vs. the line since the start of last season, and just 4-9-1 their last 14 on the board. Payton’s Saints are also a surprising 26-27-1 their last 54 games on the board since late ‘06.
Tom Coughlin, NY Giants... Coughlin, who also had a lengthy stint as the Jags’ first head coach, has been on his current assignment with the Giants since 2004. A poor 2-9 spread run to close ‘09 has been the only pointspread downer of the past three years; Coughlin’s G-Men were 32-11 vs. the number in their previous 43 games that included the memorable Super Bowl XLII win over Bill Belichick’s Patriots. Perhaps the opening win over Carolina signifies a return to previous form. The Giants are also "over" a surprising 12-4 since the beginning of last season.
Rex Ryan, NY Jets... For all of the bluster regarding the Jets, note that Ryan is just 11-9 vs. the line since taking over last season (9-9 if you count games where the opponent tried to win), and now just 4-5 as host after the opening loss to the Ravens.
Tom Cable, Oakland... The most interesting facet of Cable’s short but turbulent run in Oakland since succeeding the despised Lane Kiffin early in 2008 is the spread pattern of his Raiders a year ago, when Oakland alternated wins and losses vs. the spread each week from the fifth game forward. Cable, however, has yet to cover as chalk (0-2) with the Raiders, continuing a pattern that has extended to mid 2005 (Oakland no covers its last 11 in chalk role). Note Oakland is favored this week vs. the visiting Rams.
Andy Reid, Philadelphia... "Dang it" Andy is only 1-5 as a dog since the start of last season, but his 11-season run in Philly has been marked but lots of spread success when getting points (44-27 in role). Overall, however, Reid has flattened out over the past five seasons (just 43-43 vs. the number since ‘05) after a 67-40 spread mark his first six years on the job.
Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh... Much like New Orleans with Sean Payton, it might surprise some to find out that Tomlin is just 26-26 vs. the line since 2007 as Steelers HC, even after winning and covering the opener in dramatic fashion vs. Atlanta. Tomlin’s Steelers are also just 4-11 their last 15 as chalk, although they are 7-2 as a dog after the win over the Falcons.
Norv Turner, San Diego... Norv (did you know his real name is Norval, was once a starting QB at Oregon not long after Dan Fouts, and his brother Ron is an Indy assistant and former HC at Illinois?) spent seven seasons as Redskins HC between 1994-2000 and has begun his fourth season with the Chargers. Expect a bumpy early season ride, however, as Norv’s Chargers are now 5-10-1 vs. the line their first five games of the season after Monday night’s loss in Kansas City. But Norv 25-13-1 vs. the number from the sixth game onward with the Bolts. Norv is also 9-5 as a dog with the Chargers.
Mike Singletary, San Francisco... Although that was real downer for his 49ers in the opener at Seattle, Singletary has posted mostly-solid numbers since taking over for Mike Nolan midway in the 2008 season. After losing his first game in ‘08 vs. the Seahawks, Singletary is 14-7-3 vs. the line since, and has covered 8 of 10 tries as an underdog. Singletary’s 49ers are also "under" 15-6 their last 21 games.
Pete Carroll, Seattle... Carroll returns to the NFL after a wild run of success at Southern Cal, which was preceded by so-so results in NFL stints with the Patriots (1997-99) and Jets (1994). Overall, Carroll was 65-51 vs. the points at Troy. At New England, Carroll’s best success came as an underdog (10-6-1), which after the opening win over San Francisco makes Carroll 17-9-1 his last 27 getting points.
Steve Spagnuolo, St. Louis... The former Giants d.c. begins his second year with the Rams after a bumpy ride in ‘09. Although Spagnuolo fared a bit better vs. the line (7-9) than most would have expected in 2009. This season started with a bitter home loss to the Cards, which was also "under," the latest Rams trend for Spagnuolo (now "under" 5-1 last 6, and 6-2 away since last year).
Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay... After a slow start in his rookie season a year ago, Morris has experienced improved spread fortunes, covering 6 of his last 10, including the opener vs. the Browns. Morris’ Bucs have also been "under" 11-6 since he took over a year ago.
Jeff Fisher, Tennessee... The longest-tenured NFL coach, having been on the job with the Titans since the franchise was still based in Houston, Fisher’s spread numbers have mostly flattened out over the years. His dog mark was 32-13 from 1995-2000, though it is only 37-34 since. Note that his Titans have been going "over" more often than not at home the past few years (28-16 "over" at LP Field since mid ‘04 after last week’s over vs. the Raiders).
Mike Shanahan, Washington... The Shan returns to the sidelines after a one-year hiatus, following a 14-season run in Denver and a long ago 1+ year stint with the Raiders. The opening win over Dallas was good news for Shanahan fans after their man had seen his pointspread fortunes drop precipitously in his last few years in Denver, when the Broncos were just 11-21 vs. the line at home from 2005-08 and 15-27 as chalk that span. Shanahan was also once a force as an underdog, recording an 18-6-1 mark in that role with the Broncos between 1995-2000, but only 16-20 in that role his last 8 years in Denver.