Coaching Changes to Watch
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Florida: UF's offense has been stuck in the mud since Urban Meyer's final season in 2010. The Gators went from the 'Fun N Gun' in the '90s to the Three & Done over the last five years. Defense certainly wasn't the issue for Florida under Will Muschamp, who couldn't buy a bounce in a make-or-break 2014 campaign. UF invented ways to lose against LSU, South Carolina and Florida St. last year. Truth be told, Muschamp's bunch was three plays and a lightning storm away from going 10-2 last year. But the Idaho game was cancelled, Tevin Westbrook dropped a sure touchdown vs. LSU, South Carolina blocked a UF field goal and punt in the last three minutes and Westbrook's drop on first-and-goal with a 9-0 lead at FSU resulted in a 95-yard pick-six for the Seminoles.
AD Jeremy Foley hired Jim McElwain to replace Muschamp after the former Alabama offensive coordinator rebuilt the Colorado St. program in three seasons. McElwain passed his first major test this past January be salvaging a recruiting class that at one point looked as if it might be the worst in school history. With five-star players CeCe Jefferson and Martez Ivey pledging to the Gators, the class broke into the national Top 25.
Now McElwain has to fix an offense that lost four linemen to the NFL Draft. The o-line group has a total of just 10 career starts between them, so true and redshirt freshmen are going to have to contribute right away. The quarterback position is thin on experience, too. Treon Harris had his moments as a true freshman, leading UF to a 4-2 record in six starts. He had a 9/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and rushed for more than 300 yards and three TDs. However, Harris completed only 49.5 percent of his passes. Will Grier, who was redshirted as a freshman in 2014, appeared to come out of spring practice with a slight edge over Harris, but McElwain has said that both players will compete for the job in August.
If McElwain can get adequate play from the o-line, the offense should be vastly improved because the QB will have weapons. DeMarco Robinson is one of the best WRs in the SEC, RB Kelvin Taylor appears poised for a breakout campaign, Jake McGee is one of the country's top TEs and the versatile Brandon Powell is ready to make an impact.
There's still talent galore on the defensive side of the ball, especially in a secondary that might be the nation's best. Still, Florida is a home underdog to Ole Miss, Tennessee and FSU in the Games of the Year. To provide perspective, consider that the Rebels and Volunteers have never been favored at The Swamp.
I wasn't enamored with the McElwain hire, but he's done nothing but good things to date. He assembled an excellent staff, saved the recruiting class and pushed for an indoor practice facility that's on schedule to be ready next month. However, as we all know, the results on Saturdays in the fall are all that matter. If he can win eight games in 2015, McElwain will be off to a nice start.
Kansas: Where have you gone, Mark Mangino? In the five seasons since Mangino was dismissed, Kansas has had three head coaches who have won only 12 games, the same amount he won in 2007 when the Jayhawks finished 12-1 and beat Va. Tech at the Orange Bowl.
Turner Gill and Charlie Weis crashed and burned in Lawrence. If David Beaty wants to avoid a similar fate, he has to find some talent. Fortunately for the Jayhawks, that has been Beaty's calling card the last three years as he served as Kevin Sumlin's recruiting coordinator at Texas A&M.
Beaty, who was previously on the KU staff in '08, '09 and '11, has no head-coaching experience. He kept DC and interim head coach Clint Bowen around to provide experience and continuity. If there's a plus for Beaty going into Year 1, it's that there are zero expectations. 5Dimes has KU's season win total at 1.5 ('over' -160).
The reality is that Kansas is one of the toughest football jobs among the Power Five schools. If Beaty doesn't succeed, it won't necessarily be an indictment on him as a head coach. The fact that Mangino enjoyed so much success at KU was nothing short of miraculous.
Michigan gets my vote for making the best offseason hire with Jim Harbaugh returning to his alma mater. Harbaugh did a masterful job of rebuilding the Stanford program before taking the 49ers to three NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl during his four-year tenure in San Francisco.
On paper, Michigan appears to be at least a year or two away from being able to go toe-to-toe with Ohio St., but it would be unwise to underestimate the impact Harbaugh can have on a football team. Although the Wolverines limped to a 5-7 record last season, they return seven starters from a defense that allowed only 22.4 points per game in 2014.
In addition to those seven starters, this unit adds three potential stars that missed all but one game last year. Wayne Lyons had 124 tackles in 22 starts over three seasons at Stanford and the transfer is set to take over at one of the cornerback slots. Senior MLB Desmond Morgan has started 32 games in his career and is poised to return from a hand injury that caused him to miss the last 11 games of 2014. Also, redshirt freshman Jabrill Peppers is set to start at strong safety. Peppers was the prize of Michigan's 2014 class and was considered the country's top prep defensive back.
When Harbaugh took over the 49ers, QB Alex Smith was considered a monumental bust. Under Harbaugh's tutelage, Smith finally began to reach his potential. Iowa transfer Jake Rudock started 25 games for the Hawkeyes, posting a 34/18 TD-INT ratio. If he beats out Shane Morris for the QB job, maybe Harbaugh can get more production and consistency out of Rudock than Kirk Ferentz was able to in Iowa City?
Michigan's win total is 7.5 ('over' -120). If it can find a way to win at Utah in a tough Thursday night opener, a nine-win year isn't out of the question. That would be a great start to what I believe will be a successful (and perhaps dynastic) tenure for Harbaugh. (To be clear, I'm just bullish on Harbaugh and the future for Michigan. I have the Wolverines losing at Utah and likely finishing 7-5 this year.)
Nebraska: After seven solid-but-not-spectacular seasons littered with controversies and four-letter words galore from Bo Pelini, he wore out his welcome in Lincoln. Pelini was ousted and then the Cornhuskers made the most curious hire of the offseason when they brought in Mike Riley from Oregon St. If I had been given the chance to write down 50 (fifty!!) names of potential Nebraska candidates, I seriously doubt Riley would've made my list.
With that said, I'm not implying he can't coach. Hell, Riley has been a head coach in the NFL and produced pockets of success for Oregon St., which isn't exactly the easiest place to win in the Pac-12.
Riley returns six starters on each side of the ball from a team that finished 9-4, but Nebraska loses workhorse RB Ameer Abdulla and four of its top five tacklers, including All-American Randy Gregory. There are a pair of tough non-conference games (vs. BYU in the opener and at Miami in the scorching mid-September heat), but the Cornhuskers get their biggest Big Ten game at home vs. Wisconsin. They don't have to play Ohio St. and draw Michigan St. at home.
When Riley bolted Corvallis for Lincoln, it set off a chain of events impacting the programs at Wisconsin and Pittsburgh and Michigan St. Gary Andersen, who had gone 19-7 in two seasons with the Badgers, chose to leave Madison to take the Oregon St. gig.
This was a head-scratcher to many, but Andersen is from the Northwest and previously coached at Utah St. Therefore, he's more familiar with the area and its recruiting grounds. Another thing that was bothering Andersen at UW was the school's admission standards.
His stance on this issue became more transparent last week when we learned that Wisconsin's prize recruit in the 2015 class (RB Jordan Stevenson) was denied admission. Still, Andersen is going to have a tough time building a winner at Oregon St.
He inherits a 5-7 club that brings back eight starters on offense but just two on defense. The Beavers have a big-time playmaker in WR Victor Bolden, but three-year starting QB Sean Manning has moved on to the NFL.
Although I think Oregon St. will struggle mightily in 2015 and feel Andersen was better served by staying at UW, there's no doubt that this is a helluva hire for the Beavers.
When Andersen left Wisconsin, the logical choice was Pitt coach Paul Chryst, who was UW's offensive coordinator from 2005-2011 when the Badgers produced record-setting numbers. Chryst brings back his OC Joe Rudolph from Pitt and retained DC Dave Aranda. Rudolph was on UW's staff from 2008-2011.
Chryst has a chance to win big in his first year because the schedule is a complete joke. If Nebraska isn't ranked on Oct. 10, the Badgers probably won't play a ranked opponent after the opener against Alabama in Arlington.
Look for Chryst to get QB Joel Stave back to the form he displayed as a freshman and sophomore. Also, RB Corey Clement won't be much of a downgrade from the dynamic Melvin Gordon.
Pittsburgh: If we count interim coaches for bowl games, Pat Narduzzi is Pitt's seventh head coach since 2010. That's insane turnover that you rarely see.
The good news for Narduzzi is he inherits a better-than-decent situation. Fifteen starters are back from a team that went 6-7 after losing five games by 18 combined points. The Panthers have a solid QB (Chad Voytik), one of the nation's premier RBs (James Conner) and one of the country's top WRs (Tyler Boyd).
Narduzzi had been Michigan St.'s DC since 2004, annually rolling out one of the Big Ten's best defensive units. He'll have Pitt improved on that side of the ball right away and the Panthers will be bowling in his first year at the helm.