College Betting Notes
By Micah Roberts
After what seemed to be sort of a week off in College Football, we get back to BCS business with the top two ranked teams getting stiff tests. No. 1 Oregon welcomes No. 22 Arizona where the Ducks are 17 ½-point favorites while No. 2 Auburn travels to No. 11 Alabama for the Iron Bowl as four-point underdogs. Their BCS rankings are so close that even if Oregon were to win by a lofty score, should Auburn win in Tuscaloosa, they would surely pass Oregon in the rankings.
Much further down the BCS rating average we have No. 3 TCU and No. 4 Boise State, both of whom are hoping for Oregon and Auburn to be upset. The distance between the two outcasts -- who are without automatic bids -- in the ratings average is a mere .0135. That difference can be made up easily by Boise State with a win at No. 19 Nevada regardless of how large of a pounding TCU puts on New Mexico. The Horned Frogs are favored by 43-points. Because it is TCU’s last chance to impress, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see a score run up in this one like we haven’t seen since the Big-8 conference existed, and they would be justified in doing so because of the current system in place.
Those games are just the icing on the cake for the weekend. Elsewhere, we have classic rivalries that garner attention whatever their records are. For the last time, we get to see Colorado and Nebraska play as both depart from the Big-12 after this year. Michigan and Ohio State meet up in the Horseshoe for another chapter in that great saga. Other rivalries include Florida-Florida State, South Carolina-Clemson, Texas-Texas A&M, Kansas-Missouri, Georgia Tech-Georgia, Oklahoma-Oklahoma State, BYU-Utah and Notre Dame-USC. It is, perhaps, the greatest week in college football.
Week 12 Action
As great as this week sounds, college football conversely had probably the least exciting week of the season with the top three ranked teams having the week off and no major upsets. The were two mild upsets with East Carolina losing 62-38 as a 7 ½-point favorite to Rice and Buffalo losing 21-17 as a 7-point favorite to Eastern Michigan. Of the five other favorites that were upset, none were larger than 4-point favorites.
Not only was the live action on TV mild, but action over the counter was brisk as well. Generally we see six to eight games move by at least 1 ½-points through Thursday before Saturday’s games, but last week there were only two, Duke and Michigan. The Sharp plays did eventually come Friday and Saturday with eight other games. For the week, the house held the edge on all games that moved 1 ½-point or higher, going 6-4. The largest move got there with Duke who went from +13 to +10 by kicking against Georgia Tech. Tech won the game by 10 points, 30-20.
Sports Books Get Beat Saturday
The combination of not a lot of upsets and key games down the stretch not going the sports books way caused Saturday’s games to be one of the worst of the college season. Most bettors pushed on the marquee game of Ohio State-Iowa leaving all those bets live carried into the remaining games. The combination of Arkansas covering in overtime at Mississippi State and Utah storming back to win and cover at San Diego State were the worst just because they kept everyone alive, or made them a winner. For anyone who lost on the day, their get-back game got them back with Hawaii rolling easily as a 29 ½-point favorite.
Injuries
USC quarterback Matt Barkley will be out against Notre Dame this week opening the door for Mitch Mustain, a senior, who transferred from Arkansas following the 2006 season with big hopes of being the next big man on campus, but it never happened. Miami QB Jacory Harris has missed the last two games, but is expected to start against South Florida. Iowa RB Adam Robinson is doubtful, again, this week against Minnesota. Wisconsin RB John Clay is expected to return in their game against Northwestern. UCLA QB Richard Brehaut is likely to be out with a concussion forcing the Bruins to use either Clayton Tunney or Darius Bell, listed third and fourth on the Bruins depth chart, at Arizona State.