College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, December 23rd, 2016
Popeye’s Bahamas Bowl - Eastern Michigan - Old Dominion
First-ever bowl for Old Dominion, which is in its third year of I-A football; first bowl for Eastern Michigan since 1987, their first/only bowl. EMU was 7-41 the last four years, jumped to 7-5 this year; Eagles are 8-2 vs spread in last ten games, 7-2 as an underdog, 6-2 in games with single digit spread. Four of EMU’s five losses are by 13+ points; five of their six I-A wins are by 7 or less. Old Dominion won its last five games (4-0-1 vs spread), scoring 41 pts/game; they’re 7-0-1 as a favorite this year, 6-0 in games with single digit spread. ODU’s senior QB Washington threw 28 TD’s with only four INTs; he is Monarchs’ 3rd-leading rusher. MAC teams are 14-7-1 vs spread in last 22 games vs C-USA opponents. Under is 8-2 in last ten EMU games, 0-3 in Monarchs’ last three games. First two Bahamas Bowls ended 49-48/45-31; this should be good.
Dollar General Bowl - Ohio - Troy
This is first bowl in six years for Troy, which should have crowd edge given Mobile site; Trojans are 2-3 in bowls, with two of those games going OT. Ohio coach Solich (ex-Nebraska HC) is 4-8 in bowl games; Bobcats are 2-7 in bowls, losing last two 37-20/31-29- this is their 5th bowl in last six years. Ohio is 8-5 this year, 3-0 vs spread as an underdog, 3-2 in games with single digit spread- they used two QBs, a freshman and senior with mixed results. Troy lost two of last three games after an 8-1 start; they’re 4-5 as a favorite this year, 2-5 vs spread in last seven games, 1-3 in games with single digit spread- their junior QB is a 3-year starter. Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 3-3 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 15-11. Under is 10-0-1 in Bobcats last 11 games, 6-2-1 in Troy’s last nine. Underdogs are 3-2 SU in this bowl the last five years; Sun Belt teams won three of last four.
Armadillosports.com
Friday's Bowl Tips
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Eastern Michigan vs. Old Dominion
Eastern Michigan (7-5 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) heads to Thomas A. Robinson Stadium in Nassau for the Popeye's Bahamas Bowl to battle Old Dominion (9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS). These two teams might have the least combined bowl experience of all teams in the postseason, as Old Dominion plays in their first-ever bowl games, and Eastern Michigan returns to the postseason for the first time in 29 years. ODU sits as a four-point favorite at most shops as of Thursday morning, with a total of 63 1/2.
Eastern Michigan started hot, winning four of their first five games, including a win over Wyoming. They also recovered victories over bowl teams Ohio and Central Michigan. However, injuries and inconsistent performances started as the leaves started to change, as the Eagles were just 3-4 SU over their final seven games. They also started out the season on fire against the number, going 7-1 ATS through their first eight games. However, they were just 2-2 ATS in the final four games to wrap up the regular season.
The Eagles offense ranked 34th in the country with 453.9 yards per game, and they ranked 19th with 295.8 yards per contest. The passing game might be relied upon even heavier than usual, as leading rusher Ian Eriksen missed the season finale with an undisclosed injury, and he is officially listed as questionable for the bowl game. QB Brogan Roback completed 59.2 percent of his pass attempts, throwing for 2,394 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also will take off running when he has to, going for 195 yards and two scores on 57 attempts. If Eriksen is sidelined, Breck Turner has proven he is more than capable, running for 369 yards with four scores.WR Sergio Bailey is the top threat downfield, going for 55 grabs, 799 yards and six touchdowns.
Defensively, the Eagles weren't very good, and that's where side bettors considering EMU should be concerned. The Eagles allowed 30.3 points per game, ranking 81st in the nation, and their passing defense was picked apart for 270.8 yards per game, 112th in the country.
Old Dominion had a rather balanced attack on offense, posting 433.9 yards per game to rank 52nd among FBS teams. They rolled for 196.1 yards per game on the ground, and 237.8 yards per game through the air. With 36.0 PPG, the Monarchs ranked 25th in the nation in scoring offense. They got off to a rather slow start, losing two of their first three games, including both outings against FBS teams. However, after a 49-22 setback at N.C. State Sept. 17, the Monarchs started to hit their stride. They earned an impressive 33-19 win against bowl team Texas-San Antonio the following week, and that kicked off an 8-1-1 ATS run, including straight-up wins against UTSA and Southern Mississippi. Their only loss since that day in Raleigh was a 59-24 loss on the road against conference champ Western Kentucky.
QB David Washington paces the ODU offense, completing 59.5 percent of his passes with 2,648 yards, 28 touchdowns and just four interceptions, while also running for 205 yards and another touchdown. RB Ray Lawry was impressive, going for 1,122 yards and 11 scores. The rushing attack was a two-headed monster, as RB Jeremy Cox found the end zone a team-high 13 times, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. WRs Jonathan Duhart and Zach Pascal each posted eight touchdowns, while WR Travis Fulgham posted a team-best 16.0 yards per catch with seven scores.
As a single-digit favorite, Old Dominion was a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS with the 'over' cashing in three of those four outings.
The Monarchs are 4-0-1 ATS in their past five games overall, but they're just 1-4-1 ATS in their past six games against teams with an overall winning record. ODU is also 2-8 ATS in their past 10 non-conference tilts.
The 'over' is 4-0 in Old Dominion's past four games against a team with an overall winning mark, and 13-5-1 in their past 19 games overall. The over is also 5-1 in their past six games on a natural grass surface. The 'under' is 5-2 in their past seven non-conference games.
For Eastern Michigan, they have covered eight of their past 10 games overall, and four of their past five outside of the conference. However, they are just 17-37 ATS in their past 54 games following a straight-up victory.
The 'under' is 8-2 in EMU's past 10 games overall, and 4-1 in their past five games against a team with a winning overall record. The 'over' is 19-7 in their past 26 non-conference games, and 4-0 in their past four appearances on a natural grass surface.
Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Louisiana Tech vs. Navy
The Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl takes place on the home field of the TCU Horned Frogs in Fort Worth, Texas, as the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5 SU/ATS) will take on the Navy Midshipmen (9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS).
Each of these teams limp in on two-game losing streaks, their longest of the season, but one team is much healthier than the other. Navy was crushed by injury in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game loss to Temple, losing the nation's leader in rushing touchdowns. QB Will Worth was forced out of that game, and QB Zach Abbey hasn't been nearly as productive in his stead.
Louisiana Tech has rolled up impressive offensive numbers on a near-weekly basis, going for 44 or more points in seven of the past eight games, and nine times overall on the season. QB Ryan Higgins has been wildly productive, completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 4,208 yards, 37 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He cannot be forgotten about in the run game, as he had 284 yards on 80 carries for three touchdowns, although he certainly won't be confused with some of the nation's best dual-threat options. RB Jarred Craft topped the 1,000-yard mark on the ground, averaging 5.8 yards per rush with nine touchdowns. Boston Scott is a nice change of pace back, rolling for 7.7 yards per attempt and finding the end zone five times.
The Bulldogs have a pair of studs on the receiving end of those Higgins passes, as WR Trent Taylor piled up 1,570 yards on 124 receptions while getting into the end zone 10 times. His partner in crime, WR Carlos Henderson, piled up 17 touchdowns on 72 receptions while going for 1,406 yards. Craft also made his presence felt as a receiver, posting 339 yards with four touchdowns.
Navy allowed 242.2 passing yards per game, ranking 80th in the country, and they gave up 29.7 points per game, good for 76th in the land. If they fall behind early, it's going to be tough for the Midshipmen to keep up. They passed for just 125.8 yards per game, ranking 125th in the country. They did rank 20th in scoring with 37.4 points per game, but a majority of those numbers came with a healthy Worth.
The Middies failed to cover in three of their past five games, and the 'under' hit in each of their past two after an impressive 6-1 'over' run from Oct. 8 through Nov. 26. Again, injuries are a huge reason for the fact they managed just 27 points over their final two games against Temple and Army, and you can expect another low-scoring output for their offense, even though the Bulldogs allowed 32.7 points per game, ranking 96th in the country. However, La. Tech was stout against the run, Navy's strength, ranking 31st in the nation in the category. When the Bulldogs give up big plays it is in the pass game, as they ranked 122nd by giving up 283.6 yards per game. Against Navy, however, that shouldn't be a huge concern.
Louisiana Tech is listed as a 6 1/2-point favorite as of Thursday morning, with a total of 67 1/2. As a favorite this season, the Bulldogs are 7-1 SU/4-3 ATS.
Navy is 1-2 SU/ATS as an underdog this season, losing at Air Force 28-14 as a touchdown 'dog back on Oct. 1, and falling 52-45 as six-point underdogs at South Florida Oct. 28. Their only straight-up win as an underdog came against Notre Dame on a neutral site, winning 28-27 Nov. 5 in Jacksonville.
Louisiana Tech is playing in a bowl game for a third straight season, a school record. They topped Illinois in the Heart of Dallas Bowl in 2014 by a 35-18 count, and pushed aside Arkansas State in the New Orleans Bowl last season by a 47-28 score. Overall they are 4-3-1 SU in bowl games since making their postseason debut in the 1977 Independence Bowl.
Navy has a long and proud history, and they have been impressive in the postseason. The Middies are in a bowl for a fifth straight season, and they have won each of their past three bowl games. Last season the Midshipmen powered past Pittsburgh in the Military Bowl by a 44-28 score, but that game was also played on their home field with a healthy squad.
These teams last met Sept. 18, 2010 in Ruston, with Navy coming away with a 37-23 victory.
The Bulldogs have covered each of their past four bowl games, and they're 4-1 ATS in their past five games against teams with an overall winning record. La. Tech is also 6-2 ATS in their past eight games overall, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 games out of conference.
The Midshipmen are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 bowl games, but they're 0-4 ATS in their past four games against teams with an overall winning record.
The 'over' is 7-1 ATS in their past eight games overall, and 5-1 in their past six non-conference affairs. The 'over' is also 34-16-1 in La. Tech's past 51 against a team with an overall winning record, and 4-0 in their past four games on a grass surface.
The 'over' is 13-6 in Navy's past 19 games overall, and 8-3 in their past 11 against teams with an overall winning record. However, the 'under' is 8-1 in their past nine neutral site games, and 9-3 in their past 12 games on grass.
Kickoff is slated for 4:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Ohio vs. Troy
In the final game of the day, Ohio University (8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS) will battle Troy (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) in the Dollar General Bowl at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Ala. Each of these teams sputtered somewhat down the stretch and missed out on conference championship crowns. But both teams are hungry, and very competitive, and this has the chance to be a special game.
Ohio was a friend of bettors at the window this season for one trend that just jumps off the page. The 'under' is 11-0-1 in their past 12 games, including the Mid-American Championship Game against high-scoring Western Michigan. The only 'over' result of the season came in a triple-overtime loss at home against Texas State, 56-54. The Bobcats allowed 21 or more points in each of their first four games, but in nine games since Oct. 1 they yielded just 18.1 PPG.
The Bobcats turned to QB Greg Windham in the MAC Championship Game. He posted 1,567 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 382 yards and three scores. RB Dorian Brown is a decent back, leading the team with 815 yards and four scores while averaging 5.4 yards per tote. Maleek Irons managed 434 yards with five scores, and Bo Hardy can also get it done when called upon. He had 205 yards on 44 carries, averaging 4.5 yards per rush.
On the receiving end, Sebastian Smith led the team with 892 yards and 16.5 yards per grab, finding the end zone four times. WRs Papi White and Jordan Reid tied for the team lead with five receiving touchdowns. The real stars for the Bobcats are on defense, however, as MAC Defensive Player of the Year Tarell Basham posted 11 1/2 sacks, and is the school's career leader with 29 1/2. He paired with LB Blair Brown, the conference leader with 116 tackles and MAC Freshman of the Year Javon Hagan, to form a very sturdy defense.
Troy started the season 8-1 SU, and nearly was 9-0 with a monumental upset. They went to Clemson as 34 1/2-point underdogs and nearly stunned the Tigers, falling 30-24 in Death Valley after failing on an onside kick in the final minute. The Trojans rattled off seven straight wins after that near-miss, including wins over bowl teams Southern Mississippi, Idaho, South Alabama and Appalachian State. However, the Trojans were manhandled 35-3 at home against Arkansas State Nov. 17, and they fell 28-24 at Georgia Southern Dec. 3 to miss out on a Sun Belt Conference crown. The Trojans covered just twice in their final seven games after opening 4-1 ATS.
Troy was led by QB Brandon Silvers, who completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 2,951 yards, 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also ran for 123 yards and four scores, but is not a dual-threat QB. RB Jordan Chunn is a stud, posting 1,232 yards with 13 touchdowns on 4.8 yards per tote, and RB Josh Anderson posted three rushing scores as a change of pace. WR Emanuel Thompson is the top threat with five scores, while Deondre Douglas found the end zone six times.
The Trojans ranked 47th in the nation in total yardage with 439.1 yards per game, and they were 36th in passing with 263.1 yards per contest. Their 34.2 points per game ranked 37th in the country. On the defensive side of the ball, Troy allowed 22.0 points per game to check in 23rd in the countrry, while allowing just 123.7 yards per game. If they're going to be beaten it is through the air, as they allowed 240.7 yards per game to rank 78th.
Ohio U. wasn't great on offense, totaling 392.8 yards per game to rank 77th in FBS. They were very balanced, going for 218.0 yards per game through the air, and 174.8 yards per game on the ground, but both were middle of the pack statistically. The D allowed 363.2 yards per game to rank 32nd in the land, and they gave up just 105.8 yards per game to rank seventh in the country.
The Bobcats were 6-1 ATS in seven games against teams with a winning overall record, and 9-2 ATS in their past 11 non-conference games. They're also 4-1 ATS in their past five meetings against Sun Belt teams, although that one loss was this season against Texas State in the opener. Ohio is 5-1 ATS in their past six neutral site games, too.
Ohio is bowl eligible for the eighth straight season, and they're playing in their 10th bowl game overall. They have won just two previous bowl games, with the last coming in 2012 in the Independence Bowl against another Sun Belt team, Louisiana-Monroe.
The Trojans are 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against teams with a winning overall record, but just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games overall and 1-3-1 ATS in their past five against opponents from the MAC. They're also 5-2 ATS in their past seven non-conference tilts.
This is Troy's sixth-ever bowl game, and their first since a 2010 win over Ohio in the New Orleans Bowl, 48-21.
The 'under' is 8-2-1 in Ohio's past 11 neutral site games, and 4-0-1 in their past five against teams with a winning overall record. The under is 12-3-1 in their past 16 games on field turf.
For Troy, the 'over' is 5-0 in their past five bowl games, and 5-0 in their past five neutral site games. The over is also 4-1 in their past five against MAC opponents, but the 'under' is 6-2-1 in their past nine outings.
Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Eastern Michigan faces Old Dominion in Bahamas Bowl
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
Two teams that finished under .500 last year vie for a cherry to put on top of their respective successful 2016 campaigns.
The last (and only) time Eastern Michigan was in a bowl game was in the 1987 California Bowl. Last season, the Eagles finished 1-11. Those eleven losses in 2015 included a season-opening loss to the Old Dominion Monarchs, who finished last year 5-7. The Monarchs have never been in a bowl game, as they were an FCS team until this decade. Suffice it to say that the 2016 Bahamas Bowl is not a battle of traditional college football powers, but rather a showdown of two programs on the rise. Eastern Michigan improved to 7-5 this season, and their 9-3 record against the spread shows a team that defied expectations. They are 3-4 in their last seven, as most of their toughest games this season have come against MAC opponents. They did win their most recent game, however, a 26-21 rivalry game victory over a Central Michigan team (EMU +1) that also went bowling this year. Old Dominion has been red hot lately, winning five in a row and eight of its last nine to finished 9-3 and 8-3-1 ATS. At 7-1 in conference play, the Monarchs tied Western Kentucky for the best record in Conference USA. They have won each game in the aforementioned five-game streak by at least 10 points. Old Dominion is 8-0 ATS as a favorite this season, and 10-1 Over in the last three seasons in games that are following three straight conference games. Chris Creighton is 10-5 ATS as head coach of Eastern Michigan in games following games that went Under the total. The Eagles are 4-17 SU under Creighton when playing a game on at least two weeks of rest. EMU RB Ian Eriksen is questionable for Friday’s game with an injury, while ODU QB Tom Washington is considered probable with a knee ailment.
Junior QB Brogan Roback (59.2 CMP%, 2,394 yards, 16 TDs, 6 INTs) has played admirably in helping turn around this Eagles team. He ranks fourth in the MAC with a 133.4 passer rating and is tied for eighth in interceptions despite having thrown the fifth-most passes (326). He’s come a long way from August, when he was suspended from the team for the first two games of the season—and effectively two or three more games after that—for a violation of team rules. Both of his biggest days through the air have come in his last three games, as he threw for 468 yards and three touchdowns (on 71 attempts!) against Ball State on Nov.8, and he threw for 355 yards against Central Michigan. Sandwiched between those outings, however, was a 17-for-38, 184-yard, two-touchdown outing in an overtime loss to Northern Illinois. 10 of his receivers have caught at least 11 passes, with WR Sergio Bailey II (55 catches, 799 yards, 6 TDs) being the most productive of the bunch. He had his second-biggest yardage total of the year in the Central Michigan game, catching six balls for 104 yards and a touchdown. WR Antoine Porter (44 catches, 491 yards, 4 TDs) has the next most receiving yards, and two freshmen‚ TE Nigel Kilby (34 catches, 437 yards, 4 TDs) and WR Dieuly Aristilde (18 catches, 412 yards, 2 TDs) play large roles. Aristilde has been a late-season revelation, as he has caught at least 90 yards receiving in three of the five games he has played in. Eriksen (175 carries, 741 yards, 9 TDs) is the team’s leading rusher. If he cannot play, sophomore RB Blake Banham (48 carries, 231 yards, 2 TDs) will likely get the majority of the carries for the Eagles, although they probably won’t run much. Banham broke out against Central Michigan with 120 rushing yards—he had topped 50 for the first time all season the week prior. On defense, the Eagles rank 85th in the country with 435 yards allowed per game.
Tom Washington (59.7 CMP%, 2,648 yards, 28 TDs, 4 INTs) helms a powerful Monarch offense, and it will be a totally different game if he unexpectedly is unable to play in Friday’s game. If that touchdown-interception ratio jumps out at you, it’s not without reason: he is one of only four FBS quarterbacks to have thrown at least 25 touchdown passes and no more than four interceptions this season. He is third in C-USA with a 155.6 passer rating, fourth with 8.3 yards per attempt and third in touchdown passes. The Monarch coaching staff uses him as they need him, as evidenced by the stat lines in his past three games: Against Southern Miss, he passed 18 times for 144 yards and two touchdowns in a 51-35 win. Against Florida Atlantic, he passed 36 times for a season-high 416 yards and five touchdowns in a 42-24 win. And in a 42-28 win over Florida International, he threw 17 passes for 141 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He has three receivers who are diverse in skill set but are all touchdown magnets in WRs Zach Pascal (63 catches, 893 yards, 8 TDs), Jonathan Duhart (45 catches, 690 yards, 8 TDs) and Travis Fulgham (28 catches, 447 yards, 7 TDs). Pascal is the true star of the group, as he is eighth in the conference in receiving yards and sixth in receiving touchdowns (as is Duhart). Two of Pascal’s three 100-yard games this season have come in his past two games, including a season-high 178 yards against Florida Atlantic. RBs Ray Lawry (171 carries, 1,122 yards, 11 TDs) and Jeremy Cox (119 carries, 685 yards, 13 TDs) are the engines behind Conference USA’s second-best rushing offense. Lawry went off against Florida Atlantic, carrying the ball 24 times for 194 yards and three touchdowns. The Monarchs’ defense is solid, as well, as they rank 46th in the country with 380 yards allowed per game.
NCAAF: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Louisiana Tech vs. Navy
After losing the Army-Navy Game for the first time since 2001, the No. 25 Navy Midshipmen (9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) will try to save face this Friday when they meet the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5 SU and ATS) in the Armed Forces Bowl. It won’t be easy, though; Navy opened as 4.5-point underdogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, and have already moved to +6.5 at press time. Game time is 4:30 PM ET on ESPN.
The Midshipmen have won their last three bowl games straight up and against the spread, but their fates may have been sealed in Week 14 when quarterback Will Worth broke his foot versus the Temple Owls. Worth’s replacement in the Army-Navy Game, sophomore Zach Abey, threw a pair of costly interceptions in his first college start. Abey was also held to 73 yards rushing on 19 carries out of the triple-option offense.
Louisiana Tech may have already been the better team even before the Worth injury, but they haven’t seen the college football rankings since moving from the WAC to Conference USA in 2013. However, the Bulldogs have won back-to-back bowl games straight up and against the spread for head coach Skip Holtz.
Bahamas Bowl Betting Preview: Eastern Michigan vs Old Dominion
By Covers.com
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs Old Dominion Monarchs (-4, 63.5)
A pair of postseason strangers face off when Eastern Michigan meets Old Dominion in the Popeyes Bahamas Bowl in Nassau, Bahamas, on Dec. 23. While the Monarchs have never played in a bowl game, the Eagles make their first appearance in 29 years. The two teams are no strangers to each other, however, as Old Dominion defeated Eastern Michigan in a shootout on the road last season 38-34, getting a 45-yard touchdown run with 1:57 to play for the winning margin.
Chris Creighton directed the turnaround for Eastern Michigan, which won a combined three games in his first two years with the program. Creighton took over for coach Ron English, who was fired after addressing his team with what the school's administration deemed as “wholly inappropriate language” in 2013. Quarterback Brogan Roback fuels the offense, throwing for 2,394 yards with 16 touchdowns and he passed for 468 yards and three scores in the Eagles' bowl-clinching win over Ball State earlier in the season.
Old Dominion's only loss in Conference USA play came to Western Kentucky but it proved to spell the end of its title hopes as both teams finished 7-1 in conference play. The Monarchs averaged 36 points per game (27th in the FBS) led by David Washington, who is one of four FBS quarterbacks to have thrown for 25 touchdown passes with four or fewer interceptions. Washington threw for 2,648 yards overall while completing 59.7 percent of his passes for the Monarchs, who ride a five-game winning streak all of which came by double figures.
LINE HISTORY: Old Dominion opened as 3-point favorites and the spread climbed up a full point to 4. The total hit the betting board at 64, went as high as 65 before fading back down to 63.5. View the complete line history here.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "A lot of public support for Old Dominion, possibly spurred by the motivation of its first bowl game. We have 70 percent of the tickets on the Monarchs, mostly small bets as there hasn't been much interest from the sharper players thus far." - Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Thomas A. Robinson Stadium in Nassau is partly sunny skies with a chance of showers and temperatures in the low-80’s for the afternoon kickoff. There will be a bit of wind out of the east ranging from 10-14 mph.
INJURY REPORT:
Eastern Michigan - RB Ian Eriksen (questionable, undisclosed)
Old Dominion - TE Melvin Vaughn (questionable, ankle), QB David Washington (questionable, knee)
TRENDS:
* Eagles are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Monarchs are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Monarchs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
* Over is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games on grass.
* Over is 5-1 in Monarchs last 6 games on grass.
CONSENSUS: The public is backing Old Dominion with 61 percent of the bets being laid on the Monarchs. Users are split 50/50 on the total.
Armed Forces Bowl Betting Preview: Louisiana Tech vs Navy
By Covers.com
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs No. 25 Navy Midshipman (+6.5, 67.5)
Both Navy and Louisiana Tech carry two-game losing streaks - including setbacks in their respective conference title games - into the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl on Dec. 23 in Fort Worth, Texas. The Midshipmen, who fell to Temple in the American Athletic Conference championship before losing to Army for the first time in 15 years, have won three straight bowl games - including this one in 2013. The Bulldogs have won two bowl games in a row and are seeking their third consecutive nine-win season.
Navy has not been the same team since losing senior quarterback Will Worth - the nation's leader with 25 rushing touchdowns - early in the loss to Temple on Dec. 3. Sophomore Zach Abey has run for three scores since taking over but has thrown four interceptions in the two games. Abey and his crew will need to get some early points in order to prevent a situation where they need to play catch up through the air opposite Louisiana Tech's relentless passing attack.
Bulldogs quarterback Ryan Higgins was named Conference USA MVP after throwing for 4,208 yards and 37 TDs against eight interceptions for the nation's fifth-ranked scoring offense (44 points per game) and third-ranked passing unit (359.8 yards). Navy's rushing game is fourth in the country at 310.9 yards, making for an intriguing clash of styles. "It certainly has some interesting dynamics when you look at the two teams and where both of our strengths are and both of our weaknesses are," Louisiana Tech coach Skip Holtz - who is 4-3 in bowl games - told reporters.
LINE HISTORY: Louisiana Tech opened as 3.5-point favorites and that number wasn’t high enough for bettors and has been climbing settling at 6.5. The total hit the board at 66 and has risen to two full points to 68. View the complete line history here.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: “We opened Navy as a 1 point favorite this bowl game, but took early action on Louisianna Tech (over 70%) The action has been so overwhelming on Louisiana Tech that the line has moved all the way to Tech -6.5 with over 85% of the action on Tech to cover.” - Michael Stewart at CarbonSports.ag
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth Texas is looking wet, with cloudy skies and showers expected at kickoff. Temperatures in the mid-50’s and slight wind to the north, make for a less than ideal day for football.
INJURY REPORT:
Louisiana Tech - LB Dalton Santos (questionable, academics), LB Jordan Harris (questionable, academics), S Secdrick Cooper (questionable, neck)
Navy - LB Ryan Harris (out, lower body), LB Josiah Powell (out, leg), WR Tyler Carmona (doubtful, foot), LB Mike Kelly (questionable, shoulder), WR Craig Scott (questionable, ankle), S Jerry Thompson (questionable, ankle), SB Darryl Bonner (questionable, head), S Kyle Battle (questionable, knee), SB Joshua Walker (questionable, shoulder), SB Josh Brown (questionable, foot), CB Elijah Merchant (questionable, concussion), G Marcus Edwards (questionable, personal), LB Hudson Sullivan (questionable, knee)
ABOUT LOUISIANA TECH (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS, 10-3 OU): Higgins has one of the nation's top targets in senior Trent Taylor, who is second in the country in receptions (124), third in yards (1,570) and among 31 players with at least 10 receiving TDs, although he has only two in his last eight games. Junior Carlos Henderson had 52 fewer grabs but nearly the same number of yards (1,406) and ranks tied for second among FBS players with 17 receiving scores. Junior running back Jarred Craft had a total of 31 yards on the ground over the last two games but gained 1,350 total yards this season and 13 TDs, nine of which came on the ground.
ABOUT NAVY (9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 8-5 OU): The Midshipmen will be challenged early and often by Higgins after allowing 25 TDs through the air and ranking 122nd in the country in passing efficiency defense. It'll be up to Abey and a fleet of backs - led by junior Chris High (500 rushing yards, five TDs) - to maintain possession and burn the clock. Senior fullback Shawn White had 310 of his 443 yards over the final five games, as well as four of his seven scores, while senior wideout Jamir Tillman has team highs of 38 catches and 615 receiving yards.
TRENDS:
* Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games.
* Midshipmen are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 7-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Midshipmen last 4 Friday games.
CONSENSUS: The public is backing Louisiana Tech with 55 percent of the wagers on the Bulldogs. The Over is getting 54 percent of the total action.
Dollar General Bowl Betting Preview: Ohio vs Troy
By Covers.com
Ohio Bobcats vs Troy Trojans (-4, 49)
Two teams that ended the season with close losses to miss out on conference championships get a chance to remove that bitter taste when Ohio meets Troy in the Dollar General Bowl in Mobile, Ala., on Dec. 23. The Bobcats gave No. 14 Western Michigan all it could handle before losing 29-23 in the MAC championship game. The Trojans were upset by Georgia Southern 28-24 to miss out on a share of the Sun Belt crown.
This is the eighth straight season of bowl eligibility for Ohio under coach Frank Solich, who also guided the Bobcats to Mobile in 2007. The MAC East Division champion missed out on its first conference crown since 1968 but still can reach nine wins for the first time since 2012 - the last time Ohio won a bowl game. The Bobcats are 2-7 overall in bowl games.
Troy led the Sun Belt in scoring, passing and total offense with 49 touchdowns and 5,263 total yards. The Trojans are 2-3 in bowl games and are making their first bowl appearance since 2010 - when they beat the Bobcats 48-21 in the New Orleans Bowl. Troy nearly upset No. 3 Clemson in a 30-24 nail-biter Sept. 10.
LINE HISTORY: Troy opened as 3.5-point favorites and that number held until Tuesday when the line inched up to -4. The total hit the board at 49 and briefly fell to 48.5 before returning to 49, where it currently stands. View the complete line history here.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Troy as -35. point favourites and took solid two way action on that number. We have since moved to Troy -4 as we are starting to see more action come in on Troy, 63% to be exact." - Michael Stewart at CarbonSports.ag
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Mobile, Alabama is a mostly cloudy night with temperatures in the low-60’s at kickoff. There will be minimal wind, but no rain is expected.
INJURY REPORT:
Ohio - S Mayne Williams (questionable, head), WR Andrew Meyer (questionable, undisclosed), OL Jacob Ready (out indefinitely, suspension)
Troy - No injuries to report
ABOUT OHIO (8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS, 1-11-1 OU): Since allowing 56 points to Texas State in triple overtime in the season opener, the Bobcats have held every opponent to fewer than 30 points, with MAC Defensive Player of the Year Tarell Basham being a big reason why. The senior defensive lineman led the conference with 11.5 sacks and is the school’s career leader with 29.5. Senior linebacker Blair Brown had a conference-high 116 tackles (13.5 for loss), and MAC Freshman of the Year Javon Hagan had 50 tackles and led the team with five forced fumbles and three interceptions.
ABOUT TROY (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-7-1 OU 6-2): The Trojans got as far as 8-1 and became the first Sun Belt team to be ranked in the Top 25 before losing two of their final three games and missing out on their sixth conference title. Despite the slide, it still was a season of major strides for Troy, which improved by five wins in coach Neal Brown’s second season - tied for the fifth-best turnaround in the nation. Junior running back Jordan Chunn led the resurgence, rushing for 1,232 yards and a conference-best 13 touchdowns.
TRENDS:
* Bobcats are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 8-0-1 in Bobcats last 9 vs. S-Belt.
* Over is 5-0 in Trojans last 5 Bowl games.
CONSENSUS: 57 percent are taking the favored Trojans and the Over is picking up 53 percent of the totals action..
Friday's Top Bowl Action
By Sportsbook.ag
Ohio Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Troy (-4); Total set at 49.5
It's the MAC vs the Sun Belt in the Dollar General Bowl Friday night as both teams are looking to end their 2016 campaigns on a high note.
Troy and Ohio ended their respective seasons by losing two of three SU and ATS, but it was the Bobcats who were hoping for more as their final defeat came in the MAC Championship game against undefeated Western Michigan.
Ohio is the team catching points here and that's a bit surprising given that they've had plenty of bowl experience of late, going to six bowl games from 2009-2015 and know all about what these one-off games entail, while Troy is making it's first post-season appearance since 2010 when they beat up on this same Ohio program 48-21 in the New Orleans Bowl. Who has the edge this time around?
This might be Ohio's seventh bowl game in eight seasons, but getting there consistently doesn't always equate to success.
The Bobcats are just 2-4 SU in those previous six bowl games, giving up an average of 29 points per contest. The last two bowl games have been especially ugly from a defensive perspective for Ohio as they gave up 37 and 31 points in two straight defeats, the last of which came against another Sun Belt foe in Appalachian State a year ago.
Being in the MAC – a conference known for it's offense – Ohio is used to playing in high-scoring affairs, but much of their success this season was predicated on strong defensive play as they finished the year with a 1-11-1 O/U record.
That O/U record doesn't tell the full story though, at least for this game, as the 22.2 points allowed per game for Ohio should be surpassed vs a Troy program that put up 34.2 points/game. Also, MAC totals are typically in the mid-50's or beyond, so Ohio racking up all those 'unders' was a product of the conference they play in, only having one total closing at lower than 51 points.
Obviously this game has a total below that threshold and those looking to continue to ride Ohio's streak of playing 'under' the total might be in for a rude awakening.
This is as close as it gets to a home bowl game for Troy playing in Mobile, Alabama and we should expect the crowd to be decidedly on their side. Other than one blip vs. Arkansas State where they scored just 3 points, Troy loves to light up the scoreboard with 30+ points in seven of their other 11 games.
Ohio's defense could present a stiffer challenge than what Troy typically sees in Sun Belt play, but the excitement of being back in a bowl game for the first time in six years should translate into big plays being made by the Trojans and their usual 28+ points scored.
After all, Troy has a 4-1 O/U run going against MAC foes, are 5-0 O/U in their last five on a neutral field, and 38-13 O/U in their last 51 non-conference games.
So while Vegas Insider's betting percentage numbers currently show about 70% of the action on this total on the low side of things as people put more stock into Ohio's run of 'unders,' the total has actually jumped up a half-point from where it opened.
Ohio will have no quarrels about playing a back and forth game should that be how it plays out, because in that scenario, they have immense trust in their defense to get the critical stop when needed.
After all, Ohio has had plenty of success scoring against Sun Belt teams in the past with a 8-0-1 O/U run against the conference going into this contest.
Best Bet: Over 49.5