College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, December 19th, 2016
Miami Beach Bowl - Central Michigan - Tulsa
Central Michigan lost 49-48/21-14 in bowls last two years; Chippewas are 3-6 overall in bowls, with four of last five decided by 3 or less points. CMU is 4-2 in games decided by 7 or less points. Tulsa is over .500 for first time in four years; they’re 3-2 in last five bowls, losing 55-52 to Va Tech LY. Chippewas lost four of last five games but did win at Oklahoma State; CMU is 1-2 as an underdog this year, 2-3 in games with double digit spread. Tulsa is 4-4 as a favorite this year, 2-4 vs number in games with double digit spread- they allowed 30+ points in six of last nine games. Favorite won/covered this bowl in first two years, with totals of 80-103. Weather isn’t a factor, being domed stadium. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-8 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 15-11.
Armadillosports.com
Miami Beach Bowl
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
The lone bowl game Monday takes place at Marlins Park in Miami, Fla., as Mid-American Conference (MAC) representative Central Michigan (6-6 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) enters as a heavy underdog against Tulsa (9-3 straight up, 8-4 ATS) of the American Athletic Conference (AAC). The Golden Hurricane of Tulsa are listed as a 12 1/2-point favorite as of Sunday morning with a total just shy of 70.
Central Michigan fired out to a 3-0 record this season, including their memorable and controversial last-second victory at Oklahoma State Sept. 10. The Chippewas also started 3-0 ATS, but ended up covering just two of their final nine outings. In addition, the Chips posted just one victory in their final five regular season games, although it was an impressive 27-20 win over Ohio, a MAC Championship Game participant and current bowl team. The Chippewas managed to win two times in six games away from home, posting a 2-4 ATS mark on the road. Against bowl teams this season the Chippewas managed a 2-4 SU/ATS mark. CMU appeared to shoot their wad in a triple-overtime victory over Northern Illinois back on Oct. 15, as they were 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS at that point, but they fizzled hard down the stretch. The Chips were able to score 30 or more points in each of their first four games, but hit the mark just once in the final eight games, and that was the triple-overtime outing against NIU. Meanwhile CMU's defense went south down the stretch, giving up 28.2 points per game (PPG) in their final five outings.
CMU might not even be in a position for a bowl appearance if not for their controversial win in Stillwater. The Cowboys of Oklahoma State snapped the ball, threw the ball deep and out of bounds in an attempt to kill the clock. Oklahoma State was whistled for intentional grounding, which was the proper call. However, MAC officials incorrectly awarded the Chips an untimed down, which they converted into a miraculous 51-yard Hail Mary for score. After the game, officials admitted the game should have been over and the storybook finish should never have taken place. As it stands, both Oklahoma State and Central Michigan ended up bowling.
Central Michigan had a rather prolific pass attempt this season, posting 275.8 yards per game through the air to rank 26th in the nation. However, they managed just 119.2 yards per game on the ground to check in 116th in the country while posting 27.7 PPG and 395.1 total yards per game which were both middle of the pack. QB Cooper Rush was the story on offense, completing 61.0 percent of his passes for 3,292 yards with 23 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He wasn't a dual-threat quarterback, though, posting minus-13 yards with one score on 62 rush attempts.
When CMU wants to run the ball, it is RBs Devon Spalding (shoulder) and Jahray Hayes handling the totes. Spalding is a question mark for Monday's game due to a shoulder injury. If he cannot play it would be a huge hole in the offense, as he posted three of his six regular season touchdowns in the season finale at Eastern Michigan. Hayes also visited the end zone three times in the final three games, but he operated more like the hammer in short-yardage situations. If he is forced to shoulder more of the load, pun totally intended, the Chips would definitely not be firing on all cylinders in the run game.
The Chippewas were double-digit underdogs twice this season. Their one cover, even if not for the controversial ending, was at Oklahoma State Sept. 10. They failed to cover a 10-point number in a conference loss at Toledo Oct. 22 to kick off their 1-4 ATS slide to end the season.
Tulsa (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) had a lot more consistency in their season, and they never lost back-to-back games at any point during the season. While Tulsa was completely outplayed Sept. 10 at Ohio State in a 48-3 loss, on the same day as CMU's big win at Oklahoma State, they were able to survive and advance in the following three weeks, including overtime wins at Fresno State and at home against Southern Methodist.
Tulsa's season wasn't without controversy, either, although they were on the short end of the stick in their most memorable game Oct. 15. Tulsa was tied with Houston 31-31 with 3:31 to go, but the Cougars pulled ahead on a 24-yard fumble recovery for touchdown to take a 38-31 lead with 81 seconds remaining in regulation. The Golden Hurricane drove down to the 2-yard line in the closing seconds of regulation. QB Dane Evans hit Jesse Brubaker on a short pass and he reached for the goal line and appeared to be in, sending the game potentially to overtime. However, after further review officials determined Brubaker was short and the ball did not cross the plane before time ran out, handing Tulsa a gut-wrenching loss at TDECU Stadium in Houston.
The difficult loss seemed to galvanize the Golden Hurricane, as they won five of their final six regular season games while going 6-1 ATS over their final seven outings. Tulsa ranked No. 5 in the country in total yards with 523.2 yards per game, buoyed by a strong rushing attack ranking eighth in the country with 262.4 yards per game. The Golden Hurricane averaged 41.4 PPG to rank 11th in the country, too.
Evans threw for 3,044 yard with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, jelling nicely with WRs Keevan Lucas and Josh Atkinson for big numbers. Lucas led the team with 74 receptions, 1,108 yards and 15.0 yards per reception while also finding the end zone a team-high 12 times. Atkinson was right on his tail with 66 grabs for 927 yards and seven scores. WR Justin Hobbs emerged as an outstanding tertiary receiving option, hauling in 47 receptions for 657 yards and four scores while equaling Atkinson with 14.0 yards per catch.
In the run game, James Flanders gobbled up huge chunks of real estate, running for 6.3 yards per carry on 241 totes, leading the team wiht 1,529 yards and 17 forays into the end zone. D'Angelo Brewer was not only a complement, but an equal in a two-headed rushing attack. He rolled for 1,330 yards with seven scores on 247 carries, averaging 5.4 yards per game. Evans, like CMU's Rush, is a drop-back passer and not a dual-threat, but he was able to find the end zone four times with his feet.
Tulsa is looking for a better outcome than their showing last season in the Independence Bowl. They were outscored 55-52 in Frank Beamer's swan song game against Virginia Tech. Their last victory in the postseason came in 2012 when they topped Iowa State 31-17 to win the AutoZone Liberty Bowl, posting their 10th victory of the season that year. The Golden Hurricane have won four of their past six bowl games, covering five of the outings.
For Central Michigan, they have managed just three all-time bowl victories, with their last win coming in the Little Caesars Bowl in 2012 against Western Kentucky. The Chips have allowed 21 or more points in all but one of their nine bowl games since their postseason debut in 1990. They have also scored at least 21 points in eight of their nine bowl games, posting a low of 14 points last season in the Quick Lane Bowl in a loss against Minnesota.
These teams last met Oct. 17, 1987, with Central Michigan topping Tulsa 41-18.
Central Michigan is 8-2 ATS in their past 10 non-conference games, but they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall.
Tulsa covered six of their final seven games overall, they're 4-1 ATS in their past five neutral-site games and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight against non-conference foes.
The 'under' is 8-0 in the past eight for Central Michigan against teams with a winning overall record.
The 'under' is 6-1 in Tulsa's past seven neutral site games, and 6-2 in their past eight bowl appearances. The under is also 4-0 in the past four for the Golden Hurricane against MAC foes.
Miami Beach Bowl Betting Preview: Central Michigan vs Tulsa
By Covers.com
Central Michigan vs Tulsa Golden (-12.5, 69.5)
Central Michigan, which counted a very controversial 30-27 non-conference victory at Oklahoma State among its six wins to become bowl eligible, will face another team from the Sooner state - high-scoring Tulsa - in the Miami Beach Bowl on Dec. 19 at Marlins Park, home of Major League Baseball's Miami Marlins. The Chippewas made national news with their memorable no-time-on-the-clock, hook-and-ladder Hail Mary touchdown to upset Oklahoma State in Stillwater, Okla., on Sept. 10. After the game, it was determined the MAC officiating crew - which later was suspended - had made a mistake by giving Central Michigan an extra untimed down with no time remaining after Oklahoma State was called for intentional grounding on fourth down.
That improbable win over the Cowboys came in very handy for Central Michigan, which lost four of its final five games - including a 26-21 heartbreaker to Eastern Michigan in its regular-season finale on a long touchdown pass with 21 seconds left. Without the Oklahoma State victory in its hip pocket, Central Michigan would be spending mid-December in chilly Mount Pleasant, Mich. instead of sunny Miami, where coach John Bonamego was special teams coordinator for the Dolphins from 2008-10. "It's got to be in the top five in destinations for a bowl game," Bonamego told reporters. "There's a tremendous amount of culture down there. It's a great destination ... a lot of good people, a lot of good friends."
Tulsa finished second to Navy in the American Athletic Conference West Division. The Golden Hurricane's three losses came against the Midshipmen (42-40), Houston (38-31) and Ohio State (48-3). Coached by former Houston and Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, Tulsa ranks sixth nationally in total offense (522.8 yards), eighth in rushing offense (261.8 ) and 11th in scoring (41.4 points), and will be going up against a Central Michigan defense that ranked 43rd in total defense (376.2).
LINE HISTORY: Tulsa opened as 11.5-point favorites over Central Michigan. That number wasn't high enough for the betting public and was bet up a full point to 12.5. The total hit the board at 68 and went up to 70.5, before settling at 70. View complete line history here. Check out the complete history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Tulsa is close to a two-touchdown favorite here and probably for good reason as these teams closed the season going in opposite directions. The Golden Hurricane finished on a 5-1 run with the only loss coming against Navy by just two points and they outgained all six of those opponents. It should be noted however that Tulsa had three wins come in overtime and all of those were against non-bowling teams. Central Michigan lost four of its last five games after a 5-2 start so it comes in with very little momentum. This is a big number however and double-digit underdogs in lesser bowls usually fare
well so the Chippewas could stay within this number even though Tulsa is the much more talented team." - Covers Expert Matt Fargo
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football at Marlins Park in Miami. The forecast is calling for sunny skies, minimal winds and temperatures in the low 80’s.
INJURY REPORT:
Central Michigan - DB Amari Coleman (questionable, knee), RB Devon Spalding (questionable, shoulder)
Tulsa - CB Keanu Hill (questionable, knee)
ABOUT THE CHIPPEWAS (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS, 6-6 O/U): The Chippewas are led by senior quarterback Cooper Rush, who has completed 254-of-416 passes for 3,299 yards and 23 touchdowns. Wideout Corey Willis is his favorite target with 1,028 yards receiving and nine touchdowns while Devon Spalding is the team's top rusher with 737 yards and six scores on 131 carries despite missing two games. Cornerback Amari Coleman, who led the MAC in passes defended (19) and tied for first in the conference with four interceptions, and inside linebacker Malik Fountain (84 tackles, 10 tackles for loss) both were First Team All-MAC selections.
ABOUT THE GOLDEN HURRICANE (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS, 8-4 O/U): The Golden Hurricane feature two 1,000-yard rushers in senior James Flanders (1,529) and D'Angelo Brewer (1,330), who finished 1-2 in the AAC, a 3,000-yard passer in senior Dane Evans (3,044) and a 1,000-yard receiver in senior Keevan Lucas (1,108). If senior wide receiver Josh Atkinson (927) reaches the 1,000-yard mark in the bowl game, Tulsa would become the first team in FBS history with a 3,000-yard passer, two 1,000-yard rushers and two 1,000-yard receivers. Senior linebacker Trent Martin leads the defense in tackles (94) and interceptions (two) while defensive lineman Jesse Brubaker tops the team in tackles for loss with 12.5 - including 4.5 sacks - to go along with 54 tackles.
TRENDS:
* Chippewas are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 6-1 in Chippewas last 7 games on grass.
* Over is 6-1 in Golden Hurricane last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 13-3 in Golden Hurricane last 16 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
CONSENSUS: The public is backing Tulsa with 61 percent of wagers on the Golden Hurricane. The over is getting 61 percent of the action.