College Football Betting News and Notes for Monday, December 26th, 2016

St Petersburg Bowl - Miami OH - Mississippi State

Miami was 0-6 at one point this year, in midst of a 4-year, 5-37 skid, then they won their last six games and are here- this Redhawks’ first bowl since 2010, their 2nd since ’04- they’ve got to be really excited. Miami is 5-2 as an underdog this year, 4-1 in games with a double digit spread. A 12-point favorite from the SEC with an 11am kickoff? Hmmm. Mississippi State is 3-2 in its last five bowls, scoring 44-34-51 the last three years, but that was with Dak Prescott at QB. Under is 7-3 in last ten Miami games, 0-6 in Bulldogs’ last six. SEC non-conference favorites are 10-18 vs spread this year; MAC underdogs are 15-11. Favorites covered this bowl three of last four years; MAC teams lost by 17-21 in last two appearances here. The game is in a dome; weather isn’t a concern, but it also is a baseball field- average total in this bowl last five years: 45.8.

Quick Lane Bowl - Maryland - Boston College

In one three-game stretch in November, Maryland was outscored 149-13, but here they are, favored in a bowl. Terps are favored for first time since Oct 15 vs Minnesota (they lost 31-10). Maryland lost 31-20/45-21 in its last two bowls; their last bowl win was 2010. Boston College lost its last five bowl games (after winning 8 in row); their last bowl win was in in 2007. BC had to beat UConn/Wake Forest just to get to 6-6; Eagles are 3-3 as an underdog, 3-2 in games with a single digit spread; Maryland is 2-2 as a favorite, 1-3 in games with single digit spread. Underdog won this bowl SU three of last four years; Big 14 teams are 3-0 in this bowl the last five years. This season, ACC underdogs are 7-4 vs spread; Big 14 favorites are 15-11. This game is living proof there are too many bowl games.

Independence Bowl - NC State - Vanderbilt

Last five years, SEC teams are 10-4 vs ACC teams in bowls; ACC teams covered one of the three they were favored in. Vanderbilt is in its first bowl since 2013, when James Franklin was coach- they won last two bowls, are 4-2-1 all-time in bowls. NC State is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they lost 51-28 in Belk Bowl LY. Wolfpack are 2-5 in last seven games; they lost four in row at one point. State is 4-2 as a favorite, 3-2 in games with single digit spread. Vandy is 6-3 as an underdog this season, 4-4 in games with single digit spread. This season, ACC favorites are 17-9 vs spread; SEC underdogs are 5-3. Under is 7-1 in NC State’s last eight games, 5-3 in Sandy’s last eight. Vanderbilt (-7.5) beat NC State 38-24 at home in Music City Bowl in 2012; neither HC was here back then. Doeren is 2-1 in bowl games. Underdogs covered this bowl three of the last four years.

Armadillosports.com

Vandy faces NC State in Independence Bowl
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com

Two teams that ended their regular seasons with upsets over in-state rivals meet in an unlikely bowl matchup.

The 2016 Independence Bowl features two teams that, until very recently, might not have expected to find themselves in a bowl game this season. After a loss to Miami, North Carolina State entered a rivalry game at North Carolina as 9.5-point underdogs and needing a win to attain bowl eligibility. Remarkably, they did it with an emphatic 28-21 victory to finish 6-6 and 8-4 against the spread. They got off to a hot start at the beginning of the season, winning four of their first five and starting 4-1 ATS as well. They then lost four in a row to ACC opponents, a stretch that included a home loss as 14-point favorites to Boston College. Now in the Independence Bowl, the Wolfpack prepares for a showdown with another major conference opponent in Vanderbilt. The Commodores’ year followed a different path, as they went 2-4 in the first half of the season but finished 4-2 to enter bowl season with a 6-6 overall record (7-5 ATS). The prospect of a bowl game seemed quite unlikely as Vanderbilt entered their final two games against Ole Miss and Tennessee, but they beat both the Rebels 38-17 (VAN +9.5) and the Volunteers 45-34 (VAN +7.5) to get back to .500. Over the last 10 seasons, any team coming off a win against a conference rival as at least six-point underdogs (NCST) are 74-46 ATS against teams coming off a win of at least 10 points over a conference opponent. Over the past five seasons, games at least seven weeks into the season involving two teams with yards per play margins between -0.6 and +0.6 are 62-34 Under against the total. TE Cole Cook and DE James Smith-Williams are questionable for NC State.

Sophomore QB Kyle Shurmur (56.2 CMP%, 2,251 yards, 9 TDs, 7 INTs) is wrapping up his first full season under center for the Commodores, and it was something of an up-and-down year—or, more accurately, a down-and-up year. Things got off to an inauspicious start in the opener, when Vanderbilt lost to a bad South Carolina team 13-10 (SC +5) thanks in large part to Shurmur completing only 8 of 22 passes for 73 yards. A month later, his inability to get anything going cost the Commodores another close SEC contest: He completed 9 of 25 passes for 82 yards and an interception in a 13-6 loss to Florida (VAN +14). That said, both of his best two games of the season have come in his last two. In the aforementioned wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee, Shurmur completed 59.4% of his passes for 344.5 yards per game (187.6 season average) and a total of four touchdowns, accounting for almost half of his touchdown passes all season. Looking at year-end numbers, Shurmur’s two primary targets were WR Trent Sherfield (31 catches, 448 yards, TD) and WR C.J. Duncan (38 catches, 447 yards). Sherfield came on immensely at the end, destroying the Tennessee defense with nine catches for 187 yards (his previous highs were four catches and 72 yards). The most consistent aspect of the Commodores’ offense this year has been the run game, thanks in large part to RB Ralph Webb (229 carries, 1,172 yards, 12 TDs). Webb is fourth in the SEC in rushing yards and third in rushing touchdowns (Shurmur is eighth in passing yards and 10th in passing touchdowns.) He rushed for over 110 yards and a total of five touchdowns in the past two games. On defense, Vanderbilt is 65th in the country with 411 yards allowed per game but 27th with 22.6 points allowed per game. LB Zach Cunningham joined the likes of Alabama’s Reuben Foster as a First Team All-SEC linebacker.

NC State QB Ryan Finley (60.2 CMP%, 2,820 yards, 15 TDs, 8 INTs) arrived in Raleigh this past offseason as a graduate transfer from Boise State, and he has been rather unspectacular as the Wolfpack’s signal-caller this year. He is ninth in the ACC in passer rating (132.9), eighth in yards per passing attempt (7.6) and tied for 10th in touchdown passes. Recently results would indicate, however, that NC State does not need Finley to put up big numbers to have success. In the win over the Tar Heels, easily their biggest of the season, he completed 11 of 18 passes for 151 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. That game aside, though, he has generally trended towards putting up bigger numbers towards the end of the season; three of his four 300-yard games came in a three-game stretch from the end of October to mid-November. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown in his last two games and has only thrown two since October. WR Stephen Louis (33 catches, 657 yards, 2 TDs) was his guy for big plays, as Louis ranked third in the ACC with a 19.9 yards per catch average. He had one of his best days of the year against North Carolina, catching four balls for 124 yards and his second touchdown of the year. Both TE Jaylen Samuels (49 catches, 461 yards, 4 TDs) and “RB” Nyheim Hines (37 catches, 456 yards; 12 carries, 40 yards) have more catches than Louis, but fewer yards. Freshman WR Kelvin Harmon (26 catches, 458 yards, 5 TDs) gets a similar bang for his buck as Louis does; Harmon is sixth in the ACC with 17.2 yards per catch. He went catch-less against UNC. RB Matthew Dayes (240 carries, 1,119 yards, 10 TDs) is second in the ACC in carries and third in rushing yards, and he certainly represents a huge component of the Wolfpack offense. The senior has rushed for over 100 yards in three of his last four games, and has put up six touchdowns in that span. Defensively, NC State allows 356 yards per game (28 in FBS) and 23.3 points per game (33rd). DE Bradley Chubb was a Second Team All-SEC selection this year.

Monday's Bowl Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Miami (OH.) vs. Mississippi State

The MAC and the SEC will tangle at The Trop in St. Petersburg, Fla., for the St. Petersburg Bowl. This game is scheduled for an 11:00 a.m. Eastern kickoff on ESPN.

As of Christmas Day, most books had Mississippi State (5-7 straight, 5-7 against the spread) as a 14.5-point favorite with a 58.5-point total. The RedHawks were available to win outright for a monster +475 payout (risk $100 to win $475). The Bulldogs opened as 11.5-point ‘chalk’ before quickly moving to 13. Over the last five days, the number as inched up to 14 and just a bit north of there at this point.

Dan Mullen’s team became bowl eligible thanks to a strong APR that allowed it to go to the postseason despite being under .500 in regular-season play. MSU twice won outright in November as a 10-point underdog to secure the bowl bid. First, the Bulldogs held off Texas A&M by a 35-28 count and next, they won 55-20 at Ole Miss,.

MSU sophomore QB Nick Fitzgerald absolutely went off in the blowout win over the Rebels, throwing three touchdowns passes without an interception. Even more impressive, he rushed for 258 yards and two TDs on 14 carries. Aeris Williams also schooled Ole Miss for 191 rushing yards and a pair of TDs on 25 attempts. Cedric Jiles added a 74-yard pick-six in the beatdown.

For the season, Fitzgerald has completed only 54.5 percent of his passes for 2,281 yards with a 21/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed 177 times for 1,243 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 7.0 yards per carry. Fitzgerald’s favorite target is Fred Ross, who has 69 receptions for 890 yards and 12 TDs. Donald Gray has 38 catches for 674 yards and five TDs.

Williams has rushed for 656 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC.

Mississippi State has posted a 0-3 spread record with one outright defeat (21-20 to South Alabama at home in the season opener) in three games as a double-digit ‘chalk.’

This is MSU’s school-record seventh straight trip to a bowl game on Mullen’s watch. The Bulldogs blasted N.C. State 51-28 as 4.5-point favorites at last year’s Belk Bowl.

Miami (OH.) (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) lost its first six games, only to win six in a row afterward to become bowl eligible. This is the first time a team has pulled such a turnaround in NCAA history. During the six-game slide, the RedHawks lost three on-possession games. During the six-game surge, however, they have won four of six games by double-digit margins.

The key to Miami’s turnaround has been the insertion of sophomore QB Gus Ragland into the starting lineup. He has led the RedHawks to six straight wins by throwing 15 TD passes without an interception. For his career, Ragland has an 18/0 TD-INT ratio. He has nine TD passes in the last three games, including three in a 21-20 non-covering win over Ball State. It was the first non-cover since Ragland took over as the starter.

Ragland has completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 1,274 yards. He also has 151 rushing yards for a pair of scores. He distributes the ball to three main passing targets, including James Gardner, who has 40 catches for 658 yards and five TDs. Jared Murphy (42, 532, five) and Rokeem Williams (22, 463, three) also get their fair share of balls thrown to them.

Miami (OH.) has a pair of featured backs in Alonzo Smith and Kenny Young. Smith has 689 rushing yards and three TDs with a 4.3 YPC average, while Young has run for 490 yards and a pair of scores with a 6.2 YPC average.

Miami (OH.) has been an underdog eight times, compiling a 6-2 spread record with three outright wins. The RedHawks have posted a 3-1 spread record in four games as double-digit ‘dogs.

The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for the RedHawks, although the ‘over’ is 3-2 in their last five games. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 47.8 points per game. This is the second-highest total they’ve seen this year.

The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for the Bulldogs, who have seen their games average combined scores of 64.6 PPG. They’ve seen the ‘over’ cash in each of their last six contests.

Maryland vs. Boston College

The Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit will feature a pair of former ACC adversaries in Maryland and Boston College. The Terrapins have moved on to the Big Ten and are bowling after a one-year hiatus from the postseason.

As of Christmas Day, most spots had Maryland (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS) installed as a two-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 44.

Maryland won its first four games to start D.J. Durkin’s first season as head coach. Since then, however, the Terrapins have won just twice more, a 28-17 win over Michigan State as three-point home underdogs and a 31-13 victory over Rutgers as 15.5-point home ‘chalk.’ In the win over RU, RB Ty Johnson rushed 11 times for 168 yards, while Kenneth Goins ran for 81 yards and one TD on 10 totes.

Senior QB Perry Hills missed two games and parts of four other with a shoulder injury, but he played well when healthy. Hills connected on 66.0 percent of his throws for 1,235 yards with 10/3 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for four TDs.

Johnson rushed for 845 yards and four TDs while averaging 8.9 YPC. Lorenzo Harrison ran for 633 yards and five TDs with a 7.2 YPC average.

Hills’s top throwing options include D.J. Moore, who has 38 receptions for 597 yards and six TDs. Teldrick Morgan has 40 catches for 407 yards and three TDs, while Levern Jacobs has 37 grabs for 368 yards and one TD. Johnson added 14 catches for 191 yards and one TD.

Maryland lost outright in both of its single-digit favorite spots during the regular season.

Boston College (6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) has won three in a row over Maryland both SU and ATS, including a 29-26 win as a two-point road underdog in the last encounter in 2013. The Eagles have won eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

Boson College has been an underdog seven times this season, going 2-4-1 ATS with a pair of outright wins at Wake Forest (+3) and at N.C. State (+16).

Just like in 2015, BC fielded one of the nation’s elite defenses and worst offenses in 2016. The Eagles are ranked eighth in total defense and eighth at defending the run. However, they are No. 127 of 128 FBS teams in total offense, No. 121 in passing, No. 101 in rushing and No. 123 in scoring (19.1 PPG).

BC’s defense is led by junior LB Connor Strachan, who has recorded 70 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, one forced fumble and one QB hurry. Junior DE Harold Landry produced 47 tackles, 20.5 TFL’s, 15 sacks, seven forced fumbles, five QB hurries and a pair of passes broken up.

After four QBs combined for an 8/9 TD-INT ratio in 2015, the hope for Steve Addazio’s squad was that Kentucky grad transfer Patrick Towles would solve the team’s signal-calling woes. It just didn’t happen, though. Towles has completed merely 51.0 percent of his passes for 1,579 yards with a 10/6 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 280 yards and four TDs.

Jeff Smith led BC in receiving yards (391) with 26 catches and three TD grabs. Michael Walker has 30 receptions for 357 yards and three TDs.

Jon Hilliman led BC in rushing with 463 yards and five TDs, but he averaged a meager 3.0 YPC.

BC has lost five consecutive bowl games dating back to 2008. After a 3-9 campaign in 2015, the Eagles are in the postseason for the third time in four seasons under Addazio. They lost 31-30 to Penn State in overtime at the 2014 Pinstripe Bowl and fell 42-19 to Arizona at the 2013 AdvoCare V100 Bowl.

Both teams have seen the ‘under’ go 8-4 overall. BC’s games have averaged combined scores of 43.7 PPG, while the Terps have watched their games average combined scores of 54.4 PPG.

Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina State

This SEC/ACC showdown will take place in Shreveport, LA., where the Independence Bowl will go down at 5:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of Christmas Day, most books had N.C. State favored by 5.5 or six points with a total of 45.5. The Commodores were +200 on the money line (risk $100 to win $200).

Both of these teams closed the regular season in style with wins over their arch rivals. Vanderbilt (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) won back-to-back games and four of its last six to get bowl eligible for the first time during Derek Mason’s three-year tenure. There were three monster victories in regular season, including at Georgia (17-16), vs. Ole Miss (38-17) and vs. Tennessee (45-34).

There were also heartbreakers galore that went against Vandy. A 55-yard field goal late in the fourth quarter allowed South Carolina to nip the Commodores 13-10 in the season opener. There were three additional losses in one-possession games vs. Florida (13-6), at Kentucky (20-13) and at Auburn (23-16). The Auburn defeat was especially controversial as an early third-quarter play completely shifted the momentum of the game. With Vandy holding a 10-7 advantage and Auburn driving just inside of Vandy territory, All-SEC linebacker Zach Cunningham stripped Kamryn Pettway and recovered the fumble. That was the ruling on the field and there didn’t seem to be anything whatsoever on replay to initiate a reversal of the call. Nevertheless, the call was inexplicably reversed and Auburn scored a TD two plays later.

The key to Vandy’s late-season surge was the improvement of the passing game. Kyle Shurmur threw for 221 yards or more in each of the last four games, including a 416-yard effort against UT. Shurmur completed 21-of-34 throws for two TD passes on the Volunteers. Trent Sherfield had nine receptions for 184 yards, while Caleb Scott had four catches for 117 yards. Ralph Webb rushed 21 times for 114 yards and two TDs.

Despite battling a lingering ankle injury that should be much improved after several weeks off, Webb still ran for a team-high 1,172 yards to become the school’s all-time rushing leader. The true junior from Gainesville, Fla., averaged 5.1 YPC and had 12 rushing TDs. Khari Blasingame rushed for 447 yards and nine TDs with a 4.7 YPC average.

Shurmur has completed 56.2 percent of his passes for 2,251 yards with a 9/7 TD-INT ratio. He had four TD passes with only one pick in the last two games of the regular season. Sherfield had 31 receptions for 448 yards and one TD, while C.J. Duncan had 38 catches for 447 yards.

Cunningham was a first-team All-SEC selection after tallying 119 tackles, one fumble recovery, two forced fumbles, 16.5 TFL’s, three PBU and one blocked field goal.

Vanderbilt has thrived as an underdog, compiling a 6-3 spread record with four outright wins, including a 31-30 win at Western Kentucky in overtime.

N.C. State (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) started 4-1 with its only loss coming by a 33-30 score at East Carolina. Then on Oct. 15, Dave Doeren’s squad went to Death Valley and played then-unbeaten Clemson dead even for nearly 60 minutes. The Wolfpack had a chance to pull the stunning upset as a 20-point underdog on the final play of regulation, but Kyle Bambard’s 37-yard field-goal attempt sailed wide right. Then in OT, Clemson prevailed 24-17.

The gut-wrenching loss at Clemson turned into a four-game losing streak. N.C. State was destroyed 54-13 at Louisville the following week and then dropped a 21-14 decision to Boston College as a 16-point home favorite. Next, the Wolfpack led FSU most of the way, only to lose 24-20 when the Seminoles rallied back late in the fourth quarter. After splitting a pair of games with a win at Syracuse (35-20) and a loss vs. Miami (27-13), N.C. State closed the season in Chapel Hill as a 10-point underdog.

Needing a win over the Tar Heels to get to the postseason, N.C. State sprinted out to a 21-0 lead with 10:33 left in the second quarter thanks to a pair of Matt Dayes’ TD runs. After leading 21-7 at intermission, the Wolfpack extended the advantage to 28-7 on a four-yard TD run from Jaylen Samuels, who had a 59-yard TD pass off a trick play. The Pack would hold on to collect a 28-21 victory. Dayes was the catalyst with 104 rushing yards and two TDs on 26 attempts.

N.C. State went 2-1 both SU and ATS in three games as a single-digit favorite this season.

N.C. State QB Ryan Finley completed 60.2 percent of his passes in the regular season for 2,815 yards with a 15/8 TD-INT ratio. Samuels was his favorite option in the aerial attack, as the junior first-team All-ACC selection in 2015 caught 49 balls for 461 yards and four TDs. Samuels also ran for 180 yards and six TDs on 31 carries for a 5.8 YPC average. Stephen Louis had 33 receptions for 657 yards and two TDs, while true freshman Kevin Harmon had 26 catches for 458 yards and five TDs.

Dayes rushed for a team-high 1,119 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC. The senior RB also had 31 catches for 254 yards.

N.C. State is ranked sixth in the nation in run defense, 28th in total defense and 32nd in scoring (23.2 PPG).

Vandy is ranked 26th in the country in scoring defense, giving up just 22.6 PPG.

Despite back-to-back ‘over’ appearances, the ‘under’ went 6-5-1 overall for the Commodores. They saw their games average combined scores of 46.1 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 7-4-1 overall for N.C. State after cashing in five straight and seven of its last eight. The Wolfpack have seen its games average combined scores of 49.1 PPG.

These programs met in the 2012 Music City Bowl in Nashville, where Vandy won by a 38-24 count as a 7.5-point favorite.

St. Petersburg Bowl Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs (-14, 58.5)

Two talented sophomore quarterbacks get their first college postseason exposure when Mississippi State takes on Miami (Ohio) in the St. Petersburg Bowl on Dec. 26. Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald led the SEC in total offense with 3,530 yards - 1,243 on the ground - and had a hand in 35 touchdowns - 21 passing and 14 rushing. The RedHawks became a different team when Gus Ragland took over at quarterback in midseason as he won all six games to rescue the team from a 0-6 start, throwing for 15 touchdowns - nine in the last three games - without an interception.

The Bulldogs make their school-record seventh straight trip to a bowl game despite a 5-7 record, getting added as an eligible team to help fill the enormous bowl schedule because of their academic standing after a 55-20 victory over Ole Miss in the regular season finale. Miami’s remarkable turnaround qualified the RedHawks for their first bowl since the 2010 season when they took down Middle Tennessee 35-21 in the Go.Daddy Bowl. “They are a much different team at the back end of the season than they were at the beginning of the season just based on the confidence they play with,” Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen told reporters. “It is going to be a great challenge for us.”

Mississippi State’s offense stepped it up in the second half of the season, averaging more than 45 points in the five games that were not against No. 1 Alabama, while Miami improved defensively after giving up an average of almost 30 points during the 0-6 start. The Bulldogs scored 24.8 points per game in the first six of the season and Fitzgerald was key to the revival, rushing for at least 100 yards in five of the six second-half contests - 258 against Ole Miss - while throwing for five touchdowns and no interceptions in the final two games. Sophomore De’Andre Montgomery and junior Heath Harding each have picked off four passes for the RedHawks.

LINE HISTORY: Since opening this bowl as 11.5-point favorites, Mississippi has been bet all the way to two-touchdown faves. The total hit the board at 58 and that's where the number currently sits. View the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Miami (Ohio) - QB Billy Bahl (questionable, shoulder), DL Zach Smierciak (questionable, personal), OL Jordan Rigg (questionable, undisclosed), OL Collin Buchanan (questionable, undisclosed), OL Danny Godlevske (questionable, undisclosed), OL Matt Skibinski (questionable, undisclosed), TE Nate Becker (out for season, undisclosed), OL Zach Hovey (out for season, undisclosed)

Mississippi State - DB John Hankerson (out indefinitely, suspension)

ABOUT MIAMI (6-6 SU, 8-4 SU, 4-8 OU): The Redhawks are the first team in NCAA history to start the season 0-6 before winning six straight and averaged almost 30 points during the streak to do it while limiting four of six opponents to 20 or fewer. Ragland completed 62.4 percent of his passes and also rushed for two scores while sophomores Alonzo Smith and Kenny Young combined for 1,179 yards to go along with five touchdowns on the ground. Sophomore James Gardner (40 catches, 658 yards, five TDs), junior Jared Murphy (42, 532, five) and senior Rokeem Williams (22, 463, three) give Ragland three dangerous options in the air.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 7-5 OU): Senior Fred Ross is Fitzgerald’s top target with 68 receptions for 873 yards and 12 touchdowns while junior Donald Gray has also contributed with 39 catches and 691 yards to go along with five scores. Fitzgerald logged 52 more carries than anyone else on the team, but sophomore Aeris Williams is quite capable after accumulating 656 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. The Bulldogs often struggled on defense (110th in the nation in yards allowed per game), but senior linebacker Richie Brown (93 tackles) and senior lineman Johnathan Calvin (seven sacks) had their moments.

TRENDS:

* Redhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-1 in Redhawks last 5 neutral site games.
* Over is 6-0 in Bulldogs last 6 games overall.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the favorite in this bowl game, with 66 percent of bettors on Mississippi State. As for the total, 58 percent of wagers are backing the Over.

Quick Lane Bowl Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Maryland Terrapins vs Boston College Eagles (+2, 43.5)

Former ACC foes Maryland and Boston College both rebounded from three-win campaigns a season ago and look to finish on a winning note when they tangle in the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit the day after Christmas. The Terrapins, in head coach D.J. Durkin's first year, are seeking their first bowl win since 2010, while the Eagles are looking to snap a five-game bowl losing streak that dates back to 2008. Durkin's squad had a four-game slide down the stretch in which it was outscored 191-49 before defeating Rutgers in the last game of the regular season to gain bowl eligibility, while Boston College won its final two contests to reach a bowl game for the third time in four years under coach Steve Addazio.

The game could be decided in the battle between Maryland's running game and Boston College's stout rush defense, which is ranked seventh in the country. The Terrapins have four players with more than 100 rushing yards and at least 6.0 yards per carry, and leader Ty Johnson (845 yards, four touchdowns) is second nationally with 8.9 per attempt after picking up 168 yards on 11 carries in the win over Rutgers. Freshman Lorenzo Harrison piled up 7.2 per carry and led the way with five rushing TDs, but his status is in doubt after a late-season suspension.

Durkin and Addazio were on the same staff at Florida in 2010 and the latter was singing the praises of Maryland's first-year leader. "When he came to Florida, we wanted him so desperately to come and I was the interim head coach at that time," Addazio told reporters. "He had worked with Urban Meyer in the past and had a chance to be around D.J., his passion, his energy, so his career path hasn't surprised me in the least. I always said to myself, this is a guy that's going to be destined to be a great head football coach." Durkin, who was in charge of special teams and linebackers while working alongside Addazio that year, expressed similar sentiments. "A lot of our program, what we do and what is based on is right in line with Steve and to be honest with you, the things I learned from Steve," Durkin told the media. "I can't say enough. I said earlier, Steve's a guy I look up to in the profession."

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this bowl game with Boston College as slight 1-point favorites, but the line has jumped the fence to Maryland -2. The total hit the board at 44.5 and has been bet down to 43.5. View the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Maryland - QB Caleb Rowe (questionable, undisclosed), OL Mike Dunn (questionable, undisclosed), WR Taivon Jacobs (doubtful, undisclosed)

Boston College - No injuries to report

ABOUT MARYLAND (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS, 4-8 OU): Perhaps a full month off between games will help senior quarterback Perry Hills recover from persistent shoulder issues that caused him to miss two games and leave four others early this season. Hills completed 66 percent of his passes and had 10 TDs against three interceptions when in there, helping the Terrapins to a 5-1 record in games he was able to start and finish. "We think he’s been a really good player for us this year when he's been healthy," Durkin said of Hills. "We've had some ups and downs based on his health. He was back for us the last game of the year. He's back healthy now."

ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 4-8 OU): Junior defensive end Harold Landry leads the way for Addazio's defense and is up for many postseason honors after tying for the FBS lead with 15 sacks and ranking third with 20.5 tackles for loss. The nation's 127th-ranked offense did just enough in the two-game winning streak to end the regular season, as senior quarterback Patrick Towles threw for 257 yards and two TDs with no interceptions. He is one of four players with at least 200 rushing yards but the Eagles - who own an 8-3 all-time series advantage - average just 3.4 yards per attempt, 117th in the country.

TRENDS:

* Terrapins are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win.
* Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Terrapins last 5 non-conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 vs. Big Ten.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are backing Maryland in this bowl game, with 48 percent of wagers on the Terrapins. When it comes to the total, 53 percent of wagers are on the Under.

Camping World Independence Bowl Betting Preview
By Covers.com

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs Vanderbilt Commodores (+5.5, 45)

Vanderbilt needed to win one of its final two games to become bowl eligible and got both, earning themselves a date with North Carolina State at the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, La., on Dec. 26. The Wolfpack needed an unlikely finish as well and ended up knocking off rival North Carolina in the regular-season finale to earn its third straight bowl appearance. The Commodores are returning to postseason play after a two-year bowl absence.

Vanderbilt made three straight bowl appearances under former coach James Franklin, including a 38-24 triumph over N.C. State in the 2012 Music City Bowl, but is going for the first time since Derek Mason took over the program. Mason was in danger of missing out on a bowl for the third straight season until engineering a 4-2 finish that included wins over Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee. The Commodores put up two of their three highest point totals of the season in the final two contests and piled up 608 yards in the 45-34 win over the Volunteers in the regular-season finale.

The Wolfpack looked as though they would miss out on bowl season during a four-game slide in the middle of conference play, but tight losses to ACC powers Clemson and Florida State showed glimpses of what N.C. State could become. The 28-21 upset win at North Carolina in the finale not only made the Wolfpack bowl eligible, but it likely saved coach Dave Dorean's job. "We remain committed to becoming a Top 25 program and Dave shares that vision," N.C. State athletic director Debbie Yow said in a statement after the win over the Tar Heels.

LINE HISTORY: North Carolina State opened this game favored by a field goal, but they have since been bet up to -5.5. The total hit the board at 44 and has been bet up a single point to sit at the current number of 45. View the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: It could get messy at the Independence Bowl with an 86 percent chance of rain around kickoff and a chance of thunderstorms in the area. Temperatures will be in the high 60's for the game.

INJURY REPORT:

North Carolina State - QB Ryan Finley (probable, head), DE James Smith-Williams (questionable, undisclosed), TE Cole Cook (questionable, undisclosed)

Vanderbilt - G Delando Crooks (questionable, undisclosed), LB Nigel Bowden (questionable, undisclosed)

ABOUT VANDERBILT (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS, 4-7-1 OU): The Commodores averaged 13.2 points in going 1-5 in the first six SEC games but totaled 83 points in the final two games as junior running back Ralph Webb piled up 237 yards and five touchdowns on 41 carries. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur threw for a career-high 416 yards in the win over Tennessee and threw four TD passes in the last two games - marking the only two times this season that he threw for multiple TDs in a game. Vanderbilt already had a bowl berth sewn up thanks to its strong Academic Progress Rate before the finale but wanted to make a statement that it belonged in the postseason with a win.

ABOUT N.C. STATE (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-6-1 OU): Wolfpack senior running back Matthew Dayes was a second-team All-ACC selection after running for 1,119 yards and saved his best for last with six touchdowns in the final three games of the regular season. Dayes was fortunate to be running behind a fellow All-ACC second-teamer in guard Tony Adams, and tight end Jaylen Samuels made it as a third-team selection after leading N.C. State with 49 receptions. The defense is led by defensive end Bradley Chubb, who led the nation with 21 tackles for loss.

TRENDS:

* Wolfpack are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
* Commodores are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Under is 5-0 in Wolfpack last 5 games overall.
* Under is 9-2-2 in Commodores last 13 games following a ATS win.

CONSENSUS: The public fairly split in this matchup, with 52 percent of bettors backing North Carolina State. As for the total, 58 percent of wagers on the Over.

Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril

Miami Ohio vs. Mississippi State (-14/-14.5, 58 )

This is the St. Petersburg Bowl being played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. My power ratings make Mississippi State a -16 point favorite, but there is no way I’d lay two touchdowns in a minor bowl game with a team that went just 5-7 SU during the regular season.

Miami Ohio’s offense underachieved this year as they only averaged 23.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 27.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. However, Miami's defense was decent while holding opponents to just 24.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play (versus opponents that averaged 25.9 ppg and 5.6 yppl).

Mississippi State’s offense played above average despite their losing record. The Bulldogs averaged 31.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 27.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. Mississippi State played bad defense as they gave up 33.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play (versus opponents that averaged 30.8 ppg and 6.0 yppl).

Vanderbilt vs. NC State (-5.5/-6, 45)

This is the Independence Bowl being played in Shreveport, Louisiana. My power ratings only make NC State a -3.5 point favorite, so there is some value on Vanderbilt now that the line has moved 2.5 points higher from the opening number.

Vanderbilt’s offense struggled for most of the season. The Commodores scored 17 points or less in seven games. Overall, Vanderbilt only averaged 23.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 27.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. However, Vanderbilt did play well in their final two games, scoring 83 points in two outright underdog wins versus Mississippi and Tennessee. The Commodore's defense was solid this year, allowing just 22.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play (versus opponents that averaged 30.0 ppg and 6.3 yppl).

NC State played a brutal schedule, and they had to face Clemson, Louisville, and Florida State over a 4-week span. If we eliminate those games, the Wolfpack would have much better offensive numbers on the season. Overall, NC State still averaged 25.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play against defenses that only gave up 5.5 yards per play. The Wolfpack's defense was strong this year, allowing only 23.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play (versus opponents that averaged 29.9 ppg and 5.9 yppl). The pointspread value is on Vanderbilt, but NC State may be a bit better than their overall numbers indicate.