College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, December 24th, 2016
Hawaii Bowl - Middle Tennessee @ Hawaii
No line yet on this game because of unknown status of Middle Tennessee QB Stockstill. Blue Raiders are 4-5 as a favorite this year, 2-3 in games with single digit pointspread- they won their last game 77-56 over FAU. Hawai’i went 11-39 the last four years, is 6-7 now and is somehow in a bowl. Hawai’i allowed 40+ points seven times this year; they won last two games, but are 2-4 in games with a single digit pointspread. Rainbows lost last three bowls, allowing 50.7 pts/game- except for their great ’07 season their last four bowls have all been here, on their home field. Six of last seven MTSU games, five of last seven Hawai’i games went over total. Favorites won/covered last three Hawai’i Bowls. last four of which were all decided by 15+ points. Mountain West teams lost four of last five appearances in this game.
Armadillosports.com
Middle Tennessee faces Hawaii in Hawaii Bowl
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
Middle Tennessee State will be looking to cap off an impressive season with a victory over Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl on Saturday.
The Blue Raiders are going to a bowl game for the second year in a row, but they’ll be looking to snap a three-game bowl-losing streak that dates back to 2010. This just might be the year for Middle Tennessee, as it is facing a Hawaii team that finished the year at below .500. The Rainbow Warriors struggle to score the football, as they scored 17 or fewer points in three of their final four games this season. That type of performance just is not going to cut it against a Blue Raiders team that hung 77 on Florida Atlantic in the season finale. Middle Tennessee is as explosive of a team as there is in the country and Hawaii must find a way to keep up on Saturday. One situation that sticks out when looking at this game is that home underdogs that allowed 37 or more points in their most recent game (Hawaii) are 20-49 ATS over the past 10 seasons when facing an opponent that was leading its past two games by 14 or more points at the half. Hawaii is, however, 4-1 ATS after scoring 37 points or more over the past three seasons. The health of QB Brent Stockstill (Collarbone) is something that is lingering over this game. Stockstill is questionable for the Blue Raiders, and it would be a complete game changer if he were to be out there on Saturday.
If QB Brent Stockstill (2,801 yards, 27 TD, 5 INT) is able to go on Saturday then the Blue Raiders will have no problem throwing the ball. Stockstill has been outstanding all season, and he even threw for 399 yards with three touchdowns against a good Vanderbilt defense early in the year. He is, however, very capable of missing this game, as he has missed three straight and is still experiencing some serious discomfort. If he can’t go then the Rainbow Warriors are going to see a ton of WR Richie James (97 rec, 1,463 yards, 11 TD). James is one of the best receivers in the nation, but he’ll do a whole lot more if Stockstill sits in this one. Last game, James operated out of the wildcat against Florida Atlantic and he was excellent. James rushed 22 times for 207 yards and three touchdowns in that one, and he also caught four passes for 120 yards and a touchdown. The Blue Raiders are not very confident in their backup, so James would be in for yet another action packed game if Stockstill is out. RB I’Tavius Mathers (1,504 yards, 16 TD) will also need to have a big game with or without Stockstill in there. Mathers had 213 yards and three touchdowns against Florida Atlantic, but things won’t be as easy against this Hawaii defense on Monday.
If Hawaii is going to find a way to beat Middle Tennessee on Saturday then QB Dru Brown (2,214 yards, 15 TD, 7 INT) is going to need to be on his game for the Rainbow Warriors. Brown is coming off of his best game of the season against Massachusetts, as he threw for 311 yards with five touchdowns and no picks. He also rushed for 44 yards on 10 carries in that game. Brown will need to be accurate on Saturday, and he can’t afford to hesitate to use his legs either. He is a very good runner at the quarterback position, and Hawaii needs him to use that to his advantage in a game that should have a ton of scoring. When Brown does go to the air, he’d be wise to target WR Marcus Kemp (70 rec, 1,036 yards, 7 TD). Kemp is coming off of a fantastic season for the Rainbow Warriors, and he had a touchdown in that game against Massachusetts. Hawaii could use a big performance from him in this one. Defensively, Hawaii needs to find a way to slow down the run. The Rainbow Warriors were gashed on the ground this year, allowing 243.8 rushing yards per game. They’ll need to patch things up or the Blue Raiders will blow them out on Saturday.
Hawaii Bowl Betting Preview: Hawaii vs Middle Tennessee
By Covers.com
Hawaii vs Middle Tennessee (-7, 72.5)
Two teams that ended their regular seasons on a strong note will do battle Dec. 24, as Hawaii tangles with Middle Tennessee in what is essentially a home game for the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii reeled off back-to-back narrow victories over Fresno State and Massachusetts to secure bowl eligibility for the first time since 2010. The Blue Raiders won shootouts over Charlotte and Florida Atlantic to clinch its first eight-win campaign since 2013.
The Rainbow Warriors weren't assured a bowl berth following their 46-40 victory over the Minutemen, but earned an exemption because not enough teams wound up bowl-eligible. Hawaii is 3-3 all-time in Hawaii Bowl contests, but this will be its first appearance as a member of the Mountain West Conference, which placed seven teams in bowl games this season. This is the first six-win season since 2011 for the Rainbow Warriors, who went 11-39 the previous four seasons.
The Blue Raiders capped a highly successful regular season in style, setting school records in points, offensive yards and touchdowns in a 77-56 slugfest with the Owls. It was a fitting end to the season for a Middle Tennessee team that broke season-long marks with 6,188 total offensive yards, 481 total points and 61 offensive touchdowns. It's the 10th bowl game in school history, and the Blue Raiders come in with a 3-6 bowl record all-time.
LINE HISTORY: Middle Tennessee opened this game as 4.5-point favorites and were quickly bet all the way to -7, where the number currently sits. The total opened at a high 70 and has been bet up to the current number of 72.5. View the complete line history here.
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Christmas Eve at Aloha Stadium is partly sunny skies and temperatures in the low-80’s. There will be 14 mph winds heading west and showers are expected in the evening and might affect the end of the game.
INJURY REPORT:
Hawaii - DB Daniel Lewis Jr. (questionable, disciplinary), WR Devan Stubblefield (questionable, undisclosed)
Middle Tennessee - QB John Urzua (questionable, concussion), OL Carlos Johnson (questionable, undisclosed), QB Brent Stockstill (questionable, collarbone), WR Jocquez Bruce (probable, ankle)
ABOUT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (6-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 8-4 OU): The Blue Raiders appeared to be in peril after star quarterback Brent Stockstill was lost for the season to a broken collarbone in early November - but you wouldn't know it by looking at a Middle Tennessee offense that plastered the scoreboard for 115 points in the final two games of the season. While the Blue Raiders did the majority of their damage through the air with Stockstill at the helm, they were ruthless on the ground against Florida Atlantic, rushing for 495 yards and nine scores - three each by I'Tavius Mathers, Richie James and Dennis Andrews. Mathers was the pulse of the running game during the season, racking up 1,504 yards and 16 touchdowns on 220 carries.
ABOUT HAWAII (8-4 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 8-4 OU): The Rainbow Warriors will need to lean heavily on sophomore quarterback Dru Brown, who threw for more than 2,200 yards and 15 touchdowns while adding 283 yards and three scores on the ground. Hawaii's three-headed rushing tandem of Diocemy Saint Juste (836 yards, three TDs), Paul Harris (537 yards, two TDs) and Steven Lakalaka (415 yards, 12 TDs) will hope to help take the pressure off Brown, who bolstered his final numbers with a five-touchdown effort against UMass. The Rainbow Warriors do have a difference-maker on the defensive side in linebacker Jahlani Tavai, who was awarded All-Mountain West honors after posting a team-leading 118 tackles and seven sacks.
TRENDS:
* Rainbow Warriors are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
* Over is 5-0 in Rainbow Warriors last 5 non-conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Blue Raiders last 7 games overall.
CONSENSUS: A whopping 79 percent of wagers are on Middle Tennessee.