College Football Betting News and Notes for Saturday, December 31st, 2016

Citrus Bowl - LSU - Louisville

Louisville’s OC was suspended for this game after Wake Forest info leak; Cardinals scored 50+ points six times this year, but they were favored by 14+ points in last seven games- big step up in competition here. Louisville is 1-1 in games with single digit spread; they have huge edge at QB with Jackson over Etling. LSU is 5-4 as a favorite this year, 3-2 in games with single digit spread. Louisville won three of last four bowls; favorites covered four of Cards’ last five bowls, covered Citrus Bowl four of last five years— SEC teams won four of last five visits to this bowl. LSU is 2-3 in last five bowls, covering once in last four as a bowl favorite. SEC non-conference favorites are 10-16 vs spread; ACC underdogs are 7-4. Under is 8-2 in LSU games this season, 4-3 in last seven Louisville games.

Tax Slayer Bowl - Kentucky - Georgia Tech

Kentucky went 7-2 vs spread in its last nine games; after opening season with 44-35/44-7 losses, Wildcats finished 7-5, are in their first bowl since 2010— their last bowl win was in ’08. Kentucky is 5-2 as an underdog this year, 4-2 in games with single digit spread- they upset Louisville as a 27-point underdog in last game. Georgia Tech allowed 32.7 pts/game in 3-game midseason skid, but won five of last six games, scoring 29.7 pts/game in last three. Jackets are 3-2 as favorites, 3-3 in games with single digit spread. Tech is 2-3 in last five bowls, scoring 21 or less points three times- they were underdog in four of the five. SEC teams are 3-2 in this bowl last five years (3-2 vs spread), but all vs Big 14 teams. Over is 6-2 in Tech’s last eight games, 3-0 in last three Kentucky games.

Peach Bowl - Washington - Alabama

Alabama is in 4-team national title playoff for third year in row; they split semis last two years. Chris Petersen is 6-3 in bowls; his Boise State team upset Oklahoma in Fiesta Bowl 10 years ago. Washington is a dog for first time this year; they’re 4-1 vs number in games with single digit spread. Former Huskies coach Sarkisian is on Bama’s staff, will be OC next year. Atlanta site greatly favors Alabama, which doesn’t need the help. Crimson Tide is 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 31+ points in all five games. Crimson Tide covered last seven I-A games; they’re 9-2-1 as favorites, 8-2-1 in games with double digit spread. Last four Washington games stayed under; under is 3-2 in Alabama’s last five games. Underdogs covered this game three of last four years; unusually long road trip for a bowl team.

Fiesta Bowl - Clemson - Ohio State

Buckeyes (-6.5) won this bowl 44-28 over Notre Dame LY; Meyer is 60-5 at Ohio State, 10-2 in bowl games, scoring 42-42-44 points in winning last three- they were underdog in two of them. OSU went 2-6 vs spread in its last eight games this year; they’re 6-6 as a favorite, 1-1 in games with single digit spread. Clemson scored 35+ points eight times, with only loss 43-42 at home to Pitt. Tigers are 1-0 as an underdog this year; they won four of last five bowls, losing 45-40 to Alabama in LY’s national title game. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in last five Fiesta Bowls. Clemson is using former QB Tajh Boyd to simulate Buckeye QB Barrett in practices. Over is 3-1 in last four Ohio State games, 3-0-1 in last four Clemson games. Tiger QB Watson is making his 34th career start. Weather not a factor; both semifinals games are in a dome.

Armadillosports.com

Clemson, OSU meet in CFP semis
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com

Two teams with CFP experience clash in a national semifinal in Glendale on New Year’s Eve.

The back half of the New Year’s Eve College Football Playoff doubleheader is fittingly as good of a matchup as we’ve seen in college football all year, as Ohio State and Clemson square off on Saturday night for a spot in the national title game. The Buckeyes enter the contest riding high off of the program’s biggest win since it won the national title two years ago, a 30-27 overtime win over archrival Michigan (MICH +3.5) that secured them a spot in this very playoff. It was their fifth straight win since their lone loss of the year, a 24-21 loss at Penn State (PSU +17.5) on October 23rd. Ohio State finished the year 11-1 and 6-6 against the spread, with an early-season blowout win at Oklahoma that bolstered an already difficult Big Ten schedule. Their postseason opponent, Clemson, is also coming off a big win, a 42-35 victory over Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game (VT +11). Like Ohio State, their lone loss of the season, a 43-42 defeat to Pittsburgh (PITT +21.5), came as a three-score favorite to a conference opponent. Like Ohio State, their biggest win of the season was against a conference rival on a national stage, a 42-36 triumph over Louisville (CLEM +1). And—just one more—like Ohio State, they got a big early-season win out of conference, by beating Auburn 19-13 on opening weekend (AUB +8.5). As head coach of Ohio State, Urban Meyer is 6-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, and 4-2 ATS in neutral site games. Dabo Swinney is 6-1 ATS at Clemson as a neutral field underdog, and 12-4 Under against the total when coming off a game in which at least 70 points were scored. For Clemson, DE Richard Yeargin and DT Scott Pagano are both considered probable to play in this game.

Depending on your perspective, Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett (61.9 CMP%, 2,428 yards, 24 TDs, 5 INTs; 194 carries, 847 yards, 9 TDs) had either a great season or a disappointing one. Of course, for a player of his stature, the two are not mutually exclusive. And, considering the Buckeyes’ record and presence in the CFP, it’s probably more appropriate to focus on “great.” He was tied for third in the conference in completion percentage, third in passing touchdowns and third in passer rating (140.8 ). He was also 12th in the conference in rushing yards—first among quarterbacks. It’s worth exploring what went wrong, though, especially considering he was a legitimate Heisman contender two seasons ago when OSU won the title. That year, he threw for 9.03 yards per attempt; this year, his average was 7.02. And in 2014, he threw 10 more touchdowns than he has so far this year on about 30 fewer pass attempts. What’s most concerning, however, is Barrett’s performance in his last two games of which was against 3-9 Michigan State—he completed 46.3% of his passes for 105.0 yards per game. It’s tempting to proclaim that such a stat line won’t cut it against Clemson, but it did suffice against a top five Michigan team, so who knows? The star of the OSU offense is H-back Curtis Samuel (65 catches, 822 yards, 7 TDs; 91 carries, 704 yards, 8 TDs), who was named an AP All-American “all-purpose player” this season. He has scored at least one touchdown in six straight games and all but two games this season. The Buckeyes have an excellent traditional running back, too, in Mike Weber (177 carries, 1,072 yards, 9 TDs). Weber is fifth in the Big Ten in rushing yards despite being only 10th in carries. He had a season-low 26 yards on 11 carries against Michigan. Aside from Samuel, Barrett has thrown the ball to WR Noah Brown (30 catches, 385 yards, 7 TDs), WR Dontre Wilson (27 catches, 352 yards, 5 TDs) and TE Marcus Baugh (24 catches, 269 yards, 2 TDs). On defense, Ohio State ranks fifth in the country in total defense (282 yards allowed per game) and third in the country in scoring defense (14.2 points allowed per game). DE Tyquan Lewis, LB Raekwon McMillan, S Malik Hooker and CB Marshon Lattimore were all First Team All-Big Ten selections.

For the second straight year, Clemson QB Deshaun Watson (67.6 CMP%, 3,914 yards, 37 TDs, 15 INTs; 129 carries, 529 yards, 6 TDs) finished the year as a candidate for the Heisman Trophy. He is seventh in the nation in passing yards, ninth in completion percentage and tied for seventh in touchdown passes. He finished fourth in the ACC in passer rating (154.0, ahead of Heisman winner Lamar Jackson) and fourth among conference quarterbacks in rushing yards. He also threw the most interceptions of anyone in the ACC, four more than anyone else. His game against Louisville represents the ideal outcome of his style of play: he completed 20 of 31 passes for 306 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions—and a season-high 91 rushing yards—in a win over one of the best teams in the country. His game against Pittsburgh represents the opposite: He attempted an astounding 70 passes for 580 yards and three touchdowns, but threw three picks and ran for a season-low eight yards in a loss to a middling conference opponent. One big difference between this year’s Clemson team and last year’s is the addition of WR Mike Williams (84 catches, 1,171 yards, 10 TDs), an elite wideout who missed last year due to injury. He has posted 100 yards in four of his last seven games, including a dominant 15-catch, 202-yard outing in the loss to Pitt. TE Jordan Leggett (38 catches, 637 yards, 7 TDs) is one of the most dangerous in the nation, and WRs Deon Cain (32 catches, 621 yards, 9 TDs), Artavis Scott (71 catches, 592 yards, 5 TDs), Ray-Ray McCloud (45 catches, 445 yards, 2 TDs) and Hunter Renfrow (29 catches, 353 yards, 4 TDs) are all liable to go off in any given game—as evidenced by Renfrow’s two touchdowns in last year’s title game. RB Wayne Gallman (196 carries, 1,002 yards, 15 TDs) is back spearheading the rushing attack, and he makes the most of his touches, as he has the second-fewest carries of the ACC’s six 1,000-yard rushers this season. He is on the same streak as OSU’s Samuel, having scored a touchdown in six straight games and having scored in all but two games this year. On defense, the Tigers are ninth in the country in yards allowed (314 per game) and 12th in points allowed (18.4 per game) despite playing in a conference with plenty of high-powered offenses. LB Ben Boulware, CB Cordrea Tankersley and S Jadar Johnson were all First Team All-ACC honorees this year. DT Dexter Lawrence and DE Christian Wilkins made the second team.

Alabama vs. Washington
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Alabama is in the College Football Playoff for the third straight season and will be in familiar territory Saturday night at the Georgia Dome. Less than a month after winning its third consecutive SEC Championship in Atlanta, Nick Saban’s team returns to the same venue to take on Washington.

Alabama (13-0 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) has won 12 of its 13 games by double-digit margins. If this team dominates the next two games, it will probably go down as Saban’s best ever. The Saban Era in Tuscaloosa has been nothing short of dynastic, including four national titles in his first nine seasons.

When the line for Alabama vs. Washington opened on Dec. 4, the Crimson Tide was installed as a 14-point favorite. By lunch the next day, Alabama was up to 15.5. The number would get as high as 16 at the Westgate SuperBook, but it drifted to 16.5 and even 17 at a few offshore shops. However, since Dec. 14, the line has slowly come down, finally getting back to 14 (where it remained as of Friday night) on Dec. 26.

The total opened at 54.5 points, moved as low as 52.5, but was resting at 53 on Friday night. For first-half wagers, Alabama is favored by 7.5 points. Gamblers can take Washington on the money line for a monster +450 payout (risk $100 to win $450).

Alabama’s best wins came vs. Southern Cal (52-6 at Jerry World), at Tennessee (49-10), at LSU (10-0), vs. Texas A&M (33-14) and at Ole Miss (48-43). The Tide rallied from a 24-3 deficit to beat the Rebels in Oxford.

Saban’s team fell behind 7-0 to Florida in Atlanta earlier this month, but it would score 33 of the next 35 points and led 33-16 at intermission. UF’s defense forced a three and out to start the third quarter and then the offense marched down the field for a first-and-goal opportunity inside Alabama’s 3-yard line. But the Gators would get no closer to the end zone and once a fourth-and-goal try was stuffed, the blowout was on.

Alabama would win by a 54-16 count as a 24-point ‘chalk,’ improving to 8-4 ATS in 12 games as a double-digit favorite this year. The Crimson Tide crushed UF’s early momentum by getting a pair of first-quarter interceptions. The first set up a 31-yard field goal by Adam Griffith, while Minkah Fitzpatrick turned the second one into a 40-yard pick-six.

After forcing a three and out on UF’s next possession, the Tide blocked a punt and reserve RB Joshua Jacobs returned it 27 yards for another score. Jacobs would score again on a six-yard TD run to put ‘Bama ahead 33-7 late in the second quarter.

Bo Scarbrough rushed 11 times for a team-best 91 yards and two touchdowns, while Damien Harris finished with 86 rushing yards on eight attempts. Jalen Hurts completed 11-of-20 passes for 138 yards and one TD without an interception.

Alabama has the best defense in the country and the stats clearly point this out. The Tide is ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense, rush defense and scoring, allowing merely 11.8 points per game.

This unit is loaded with future first-round picks, including LB Rueben Foster, DT Jonathan Allen and Fitzpatrick. Foster has recorded 94 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, four sacks, eight QB hurries and a pair of passes broken up. Fitzpatrick has 56 tackles, five TFL’s, one sack, one forced fumble, seven PBU and five interceptions, including a pair of pick-sixes. Allen produced 56 tackles, , 13 TFL’s, 8.5 sacks, 15 QB hurries, one blocked field goal, two PBU and two fumble returns for TDs.

Hurts, the true freshmen QB, has emerged as the program’s present and future at the position. His scrambling skills have added an extra dynamic to Lane Kiffin’s offense. Hurts has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 2,563 yards with a 21/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for 841 yards and 12 TDs with a 5.2 yards-per-carry average.

Harris has rushed for a team-high 983 yards and two TDs while averaging 7.4 YPC. Jacobs has 551 rushing yards, four TDs and a 6.6 YPC average, while Scarbrough has 539 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 6.0 YPC average.

Hurts has a pair of eliter WRs in sophomore Calvin Ridley and junior ArDarius Stewart. Ridley has hauled in 65 receptions for 734 yards and seven TDs, while Stewart has 52 catches for 816 yards and seven TDs.

Washington (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS) has enjoyed a breakout campaign in the third season of Chris Petersen’s tenure. The Huskies won the Pac-12 Championship Game by drilling Colorado 41-10 as an 8.5-point favorite in Santa Clara. The 51 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 55.5-point total.

After going to intermission with a 14-7 advantage over the Buffaloes, Taylor Rapp intercepted a CU pass and turned it into a 35-yard pick-six. From there, it was all UW. The Huskies limited the Buffs to merely 163 yards of total offense and forced three turnovers. Rapp caused one with a second pick.

Myles Gaskin rushed for 159 yards on 29 carries, while Lavon Coleman added 101 rushing yards and one TD on 18 attempts. Jake Browning connected on just 9-of-24 throws for 118 yards, but he had a pair of TD passes without an interception. Junior WR John Ross had four catches for 51 yards and one TD.

Washington took its only loss at home to Southern Cal, dropping a 26-13 decision as a 10-point ‘chalk.’ Since then, the Huskies have won three in a row while covering the spread in back-to-back contests. They clinched the Pac-12 North by going into Pullman and blasting Washington State 45-17 as six-point road favorites.

UW’s best wins came vs. Stanford (44-6), at Oregon (70-21), at Utah (31-24) and the aforementioned victory over the Cougars to win the Apple Cup.

Washington hasn’t been an underdog all season. In Petersen’s first two years at the helm, the Huskies posted a 6-7 spread record as underdogs. They went 2-2 ATS with one outright victory in four games as double-digit ‘dogs.

Browning, a true sophomore, has been outstanding all year. He has completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 3,280 yards with a 42/7 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target is Ross, who has 76 receptions for 1,122 yards and 17 TDs. Dante Pettis has 59 catches for 796 yards and 14 TDs, while Chico McClatcher has 29 grabs for 580 yards and five TDs.

Gaskin earned first-team All Pac-12 honors by rushing for 1,339 yards and 10 TDs with a 5.9 YPC average. Coleman has rushed for 836 yards and seven scores while averaging 7.8 YPC.

Ross and Pettis are versatile WRs who can make things happen on trick plays and on special teams. Pettis’s fourth-quarter punt return for a TD proved to be the difference in UW’s win at Utah. He averages 12.3 yards per punt return and has also completed 2-of-4 passes for 89 yards and one TD without an interception. Ross averages 26.0 yards per kick return and has rushed for 102 yards and one TD on eight carries.

Petersen has taken a team to the Georgia Dome before. In the 2011 season opener, he took his Boise State team to Atlanta where it raced out to a 28-7 lead over Georgia and eventually captured a 35-21 win. Petersen has certainly orchestrated upsets before, going 8-4 ATS with five outright wins during his tenure at BSU.

We should note that three of the four non-covers while with the Broncos came in his final season when they were adjusting to life without the school’s all-time leading passer and four-year starter, Kellen Moore. The outright victories included wins vs. Oklahoma and TCU at the Fiesta Bowl, in addition to scalps at Oregon and vs. Va. Tech in Landover, MY.

Washington is ranked 11th in the nation in total defense, 20th versus the pass, 20th against the run and seventh in scoring (17.2 PPG). However, this unit lost three starters – senior DE Joe Mathis, junior LB Azeem Victor and junior DB Darren Gardenhire -- to season-ending injuries in November.

Victor remains the team’s leading tackler, just as he was in 2015. In 10 games, Victor had recorded 67 tackles, three TFL’s, one forced fumble, one PBU and one fumble return for a TD. Mathis had 25 tackles, 7.5 TFL’s, five sacks and one PBU in seven games. Gardenhire finished the year with 13 tackles, one interception, 1.5 TFL’s, one sack, one forced fumble, one QB hurry and two PBU.

The ‘under’ is 7-6 overall for Alabama, cashing in four of its last six games. The Tide has seen its games average combined scores of 52.3 PPG.

The ‘over’ is 8-4-1 overall for UW, but it has seen the ‘under’ go 3-0-1 in its last four games. The Huskies have seen their contests average combined scores of 61.7 PPG.

Ohio State vs. Clemson
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The PlayStation Fiesta Bowl will be a rematch of the 2013 Orange Bowl with Clemson and Ohio St. squaring off in the semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. The winner will advance to Tampa to take on the Alabama-Washington winner for the national championship.

As of Friday night, most betting shops had Ohio State (11-1 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The Tigers were +115 on the money line (risk $100 to win $115).

Clemson (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS) is seeking its second straight trip to the CFP finals after dropping a 45-42 decision to Alabama last year. The Tigers repeated as conference champs by beating Va. Tech 42-35 as 10-point favorites at the ACC Championship Game.

Deshaun Watson completed 23-of-34 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. Watson also torched the Hokies with his legs, rushing for a team-high 85 yards and two TDs on 17 carries. Wayne Gallman rushed for 59 yards and one TD on 17 attempts.

Jordan Leggett had four receptions for 49 yards and two TDs, while Hunter Renfrow had a pair of catches for 46 yards and one TD.

Dabo Swinney’s team took its only loss of the year to Pittsburgh on a walk-off field goal on the game’s final play. The Panthers went into Death Valley and won 43-42 as 21.5-point road underdogs. Since then, though, Clemson has won three in a row -- at Wake Forest (35-13) and vs. South Carolina (56-7) before beating the Hokies.

Clemson owns other notable wins at Auburn (19-13), vs. Troy (30-24), at Ga. Tech (26-7), vs. Louisville (42-36), vs. N.C. State (24-17 in overtime), at Boston College (56-10) and at FSU (37-34).

Clemson has only been an underdog once this season, handing Louisville its first loss as a one-point home ‘dog. The Tigers have been underdogs in five consecutive bowl games, compiling a 5-0 spread record with four outright wins.

One of those upset victories came in Miami in 2013 when Clemson won a 40-35 decision over Ohio St as a 2.5-point underdog. With 6:16 remaining, Tajh Boyd found Stanton Seckinger from six yards out for his fifth TD pass of the night, and the defense shut down the Buckeyes the rest of the way to secure the victory.

Watson now ranks third on Clemson’s list of all-time passing leaders with 9,484 career yards. The junior completed 67.6 percent of his throws this year for 3,914 yards with a 37/15 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Watson also ran for 524 yards and six TDs.

Gallman rushed for a team-high 1,002 yards and 15 TDs while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. He also had 16 catches for 103 yards.

After suffering a season-ending neck injury in Week 1 of the 2015 campaign, WR Mike Williams returned in a big way this year. Williams hauled in 84 receptions for 1,171 yards and 10 TDs. Leggett has 38 catches for 637 yards and seven TDs, while Deon Cain has made 32 grabs for 621 yards and nine TDs. Artavis Scott has 71 receptions for 592 yards and five TDs, while Ray-Ray McCloud has 45 catches for 443 yards and two TDs. Despite missing three games with an injury, Renfrow still brought down 29 balls for 353 yards and four TDs.

Obviously, Watson has weapons galore at his disposal. Clemson is ranked 12th in the nation in total offense, seventh in passing and 14th in scoring (40.2 points per game).

Clemson has one of the country’s premier defensive coordinators in Brent Venables. When Geno Smith and West Va. stroked the Tigers by a 70-33 count at the 2011 Orange Bowl, Swinney made the best move of his career in hiring Venables away from Bob Stoops at Oklahoma.

Despite returning only four starters this season, Venables’ unit is ranked ninth in the nation in total defense, 18th versus the pass, 22nd against the run and 11th in scoring (18.4 PPG).

Ohio State didn’t even get to the Big Ten Championship Game, yet it’s in the CFP for the second time in three years. The Buckeyes tasted their lone defeat at Penn State when the Nittany Lions scored on a blocked field goal in a 24-21 comeback win as 17.5-point home underdogs.

Urban Meyer’s team posted quality wins vs. Tulsa (48-3), at Oklahoma (45-24), vs. Indiana (38-17), at Wisconsin (30-23 in overtime), vs. Northwestern (24-20) and vs. Michigan (30-27 in OT).

OSU failed to cover the number as a 4.5-point ‘chalk’ against the Wolverines, who had to settle for a field goal on its offensive possession in OT because the refs failed to throw a flag on a blatant pass-interference on a 3rd-and-4 play from the OSU 19-yard line. Trailing by three, junior RB Curtis Samuel ended the heated contest by scoring on a 15-yard TD run.

Samuel rushed for 54 yards on seven carries and also had four catches for 32 yards. J.T. Barrett rushed for 125 yards and one TD on 30 carries. The junior signal caller struggled through the air against Michigan, completing just 15-of-32 throws for 124 yards with zero TDs and one interception. Malik Hooker had a 16-yard pick-six for the Buckeyes.

For the season, Barrett has connected on 61.8 percent of his passes for 2,428 yards with a 24/5 TD-INT ratio. He’s also run for 847 yards and nine TDs.

Mike Weber has rushed for a team-best 1,072 yards and nine TDs with a 6.1 YPC average. Samuel has 704 rushing yards and eight TDs with a 7.7 YPC average. Samuel also has 65 catches for 822 yards and seven TDs.

Noah Brown has brought down 30 receptions for 385 yards and seven TDs, while Dontre Wilson has 27 catches for 352 yards and five TDs.

Ohio State is ninth in the nation in rushing and scoring offense, averaging 42.7 PPG. As for the defense, it is ranked fourth in the country in total defense, fifth against the pass, 17th versus the run and third in scoring (14.2 PPG).

OSU has been a single-digit favorite just twice this season, going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. During Meyer’s five-year tenure, the Buckeyes are 7-3 ATS in 10 games as single-digit ‘chalk.’

After hitting in four consecutive games, the ‘over’ improved to 7-6 overall for Clemson. The Tigers have seen their games average combined scores of 58.5 PPG.

Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for the Buckeyes, but they’ve watched the ‘over’ hit at a 3-1 clip in their last four outings. Their games have averaged combined scores of 56.8 PPG.

Citrus Bowl Betting Preview: Louisiana State vs Louisville
By Covers.com

No. 20 Louisiana State Tigers vs No. 13 Louisville Cardinals (+3, 59.5)

Lamar Jackson toyed with defenses for most of 2016 en route to becoming Louisville's first Heisman Trophy winner, but he'll likely face his toughest test of the season on Dec. 31 at the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Fla against LSU. The sophomore quarterback is the only player in FBS history to throw for 30-plus touchdowns and rush for 20-plus TDs in the regular season. The Tigers rank sixth in FBS in scoring defense (16.4 points) and 13th in total defense (323 yards per game).

LSU running back Leonard Fournette will not play after declaring for the NFL Draft earlier in the month. One year after rushing for 1,953 yards and 22 touchdowns - both school records - as a sophomore, the 2015 All-American was dogged by an August left ankle injury that forced him to miss four regular-season games as a junior. Despite missing nearly half the season, he'll leave as the Tigers' single-season leader in rushing yards per game (162.8 ), career rushing yards per game (119.7) and 200-yard games (five).

The Cardinals ended the regular season with a thud - allowing 11 sacks and committing 15 penalties in a 36-10 setback at Houston before losing 41-38 to Kentucky to snap a five-game winning streak in the series - and things have only gotten worse since. Linebackers James Hearns and Henry Famurewa were among three students shot near the school's campus hours after Jackson won the Heisman on Dec. 10. Less than a week later, the school suspended offensive coordinator Lonnie Galloway for his role in the Wake Forest play-sharing scandal.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the line with LSU as 3.5-point favorites and that has been bet down to a field goal. The total opened at 60 and has been bet down half-point to 59.5. Check out the complete line history here

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a gorgeous afternoon for football at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. The forecast is calling for sunny skies, minimal winds out of the south and temperatures in the mid-70’s.

INJURY REPORT:

Louisiana State - FB Bry’Kiethon Mouton (probable, undisclosed), WR Travin Dural (probable, undisclosed), DE Arden Key (probable, shoulder), CB Tre’Davious White (probable, ankle), DT Christian LaCouture (doubtful, knee), DE Andre Anthony (doubtful, academics), OL Donavaughn Campbell (out, shoulder), RB Leonard Fournette (out, ankle), LB Kendell Beckwith (out, knee)

Louisville - RB L.J. Scott (questionable, hamstring), WR Jamari Staples (questionable, undisclosed), LB James Hearns (doubtful, elbow), LB Henry Famurewa (doubtful, foot)

ABOUT LSU (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 2-7-2 OU): Darrius Guice emerged as one of the most explosive running backs in the country, averaging a league-high 7.9 yards per carry and running for a SEC-best 14 touchdowns while finishing second in the conference in rushing (1,249), even breaking Fournette's single-game school rushing record 33 days after he set it with 285 yards against Texas A&M. Danny Etling threw for 324 yards versus the Aggies as well, giving the Tigers a 300-yard passer and 200-yard rusher in the same game for the first time in school history. The defense is led by a pair of All-Americans in junior safety Jamal Adams (70 tackles) and senior linebacker Kendell Beckwith (9.1 tackles per game, second in the SEC).

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 8-4 OU): Despite committing five of the Cardinals' seven turnovers during their season-ending losing streak, Jackson totaled five touchdowns to set the ACC record for touchdowns responsible for in a single season (51) while breaking the single-season school marks for rushing yards (1,538) and 100-yard rushing performances (eight). Tight end Cole Hikutini (eight touchdowns), who is one of four Cardinals with at least 593 receiving yards, joins wideouts James Quick (six), Jaylen Smith (six) and Reggie Bonnafon (five) with at least five receiving touchdowns. Hearns, who is tied for the ACC lead with five forced fumbles and leads the team with eight sacks, is expected to make a full recovery, as is Famurewa and the cheerleader involved in the shootings.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
* Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
* Cardinals are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-0-2 in Tigers last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 9-2 in Cardinals last 11 games on fieldturf.

CONSENSUS: The betting public has their eye on the Cardinals with 60 percent of the wagers on the underdog. Over is grabbing 54 percent of the selections.

TaxSlayer Bowl Betting Preview: Georgia Tech vs Kentucky
By Covers.com

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Kentucky Wildcats (+3.5, 62.5)

Two of the top rushing offenses in the country collide when Georgia Tech and Kentucky meet in the TaxSlayer Bowl on Dec. 31 in Jacksonville. The Yellow Jackets, whose string of 18 consecutive bowl appearances was snapped last season, led the ACC and sit 10th nationally at 257.4 yards per game on the ground. The Wildcats, who are making their first bowl appearance since 2010, rank third in the SEC and 16th in the nation in rushing yards per game (241.3).

Georgia Tech started its season 3-3 before getting on track, winning five of its final six games while averaging 285.7 rushing yards per game during that stretch. “We got fortunate and got hot a little bit, and started playing a little bit better and really finished up the season on a positive note,” Yellow Jackets head coach Paul Johnson told reporters. While the rushing offense is critical to Georgia Tech’s chances, quarterback Justin Thomas (1,454 yards passing, 562 yards rushing) is a two-way threat who engineered late game-winning drives through the air against Boston College and Georgia.

Kentucky features a two-pronged rushing attack led by a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Stanley Williams (1,135 yards) and SEC All-Freshman team honoree Benny Snell (1,079 yards) with Snell setting freshman school marks for rushing yards, 100-yard games and touchdowns. “I think it’s impressive to have a true freshman do that,” Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops told reporters. “He’s been steady.” The Wildcats are 230 yards and two touchdowns away from setting school single-season records in both categories.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Georgia Tech -4 and was quickly dropped to 3.5, where it has held firm. The total opened at 60 and that wasn’t enough for bettors as it rose as high as 63, before fading to the current number of 62.5. Check out the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful afternoon for football at Everbank field in Jacksonville. The forecast is calling for mostly clear skies, minimal winds and temperatures in the mid-60’s.

INJURY REPORT:

Georgia Tech - DL Jordan Woods (questionable, upper body)

Kentucky - WR Jeff Badet (questionable, hip), LB Jordan Jones (questionable, back)

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (8-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, 6-4-1 OU): Johnson credits the offensive line with solidifying the team after an up-and-down opening half of the season, but the Yellow Jackets will be without leading rusher Marcus Marshall (624 yards) after the sophomore announced his transfer to James Madison. Freshman Dedrick Mills has rushed for 602 yards and 11 touchdowns in only eight games, while Thomas accounted for 459 yards of total offense in an October victory over Duke and passed for 164 yards against Georgia. The Yellow Jackets surrendered only 21.3 points per game in winning their last three contests, including an upset victory at Virginia Tech and a rally from 13 points down in the fourth quarter to knock off Georgia.

ABOUT KENTUCKY (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 7-5 OU): Williams finished the regular season fifth in the SEC in rushing and Snell placed eighth, providing the power for a Wildcats’ offense that saw quarterback Stephen Johnson battle inconsistency and injury. Kentucky punctuated its breakout season with an upset of in-state rival Louisville, winning five of its last seven games. Sophomore linebacker Jordan Jones, who earned second-team All-SEC honors, recorded 100 tackles (14 for loss) in anchoring a defense that ranked in the bottom third nationally in allowing 31.2 points per game.

TRENDS:

* Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Yellow Jackets last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 vs. ACC.

CONSENSUS: The Wildcats are the team of choice in this one, with 57 percent of users taking Kentucky. 55 percent of users are taking the Over.

Peach Bowl Betting Preview: Washington vs Alabama
By Covers.com

No. 4 Washington Huskies vs No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5, 52.5)

Top-ranked Alabama begins its pursuit of its fifth national championship in 10 seasons under coach Nick Saban in the Peach Bowl when it takes on No. 4 Washington on Dec. 31 in the College Football Playoff semifinal contest. The Crimson Tide defeated Clemson in last season's title game and have won their last 25 overall games. The Huskies have ascended quickly under third-year coach Chris Petersen and are enjoying their best season since the 1991 Don James-coached unbeaten squad shared the national championship with Miami.

The quarterbacks are highly productive but pack different skill sets as Washington's Jake Browning is an efficient pro-style signal caller while Alabama's Jalen Hurts is a multi-faceted player who runs nearly as well as he throws. Browning, a sophomore, passed for 3,280 yards and a school-record 42 touchdowns, while Hurts accounted for 34 scores (22 passing, 12 rushing) and is striving to join Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway (1985) as the only true freshmen quarterbacks to lead a team to a national title. "I'm a firm believer in age being nothing but a number," the 18-year-old Hurts told reporters. "And I feel like if you step up to any situation and you're able to play your game, be confident, have the poise you need to have, you'll be alright."

Both teams excel at scoring points while not on offense, particularly a Crimson Tide squad that totaled 14 non-offensive touchdowns, matching Southern Mississippi (2011) for the most in FBS since 1996. Alabama's non-offensive touchdowns break down this way: five interception returns, five fumble returns, three punt returns and one blocked field goal. The Huskies have two superb returners in juniors Josh Ross (one kickoff return score this season, four in his career) and Dante Pettis (two punt return TDs this season, five in his career).

LINE HISTORY: Alabama opened as 13.5-point favorites but that spread initially wasn’t enough as the line was bet up to 16.5 the first week of December. Since, the line has faded down returning to the opening number of 13.5. The total hit the board at 55 and dropped to 52.5. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Washington - WR Brayden Lenius (questionable, undisclosed), LB Joe Mathis (out, foot), LB Azeem Victor (out, leg)

Alabama - DB Marlon Humphrey (probable, hamstring), WR ArDarius Stewart (probable, undisclosed), LB Keith holcombe (probable, leg), DB Tony Brown (probable, undisclosed), OL Cam Robinson (questionable, undisclosed), DL Dakota Ball (out indefinitely, finger), OL Josh Casher (out for season, foot)

ABOUT WASHINGTON (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS, 8-4-1 OU): Browning completed 63.2 percent of his passes and Ross totaled 76 receptions for 1,122 yards and 17 touchdowns for the Huskies, who average 44.5 points per game. Sophomore running back Myles Gaskin rushed for 1,339 yards and 10 scores and junior backup Lavon Coleman owns a glitzy 7.8 average while rushing for 836 yards and seven touchdowns. The defense allows 17.2 points per game and features standout junior free safety Budda Baker (65 tackles, two interceptions) and senior outside linebacker Psalm Wooching (team-high six sacks) but remains without two of its top players in senior outside linebacker Joe Mathis (foot) and junior middle linebacker Azeem Victor (leg).

ABOUT ALABAMA (13-0 SU, 9-4 ATS, 6-7 OU): Senior defensive end Jonathan Allen won the Nagurski Trophy as the national defensive player of the year and his standout campaign includes 8 1/2 sacks and two fumble-return touchdowns for a unit that leads the nation in scoring defense (11.8 ) and total defense (247.8 ). The defense didn't miss a beat when it lost star senior safety Eddie Jackson to a season-ending broken leg and the list of standouts include senior outside linebackers Ryan Anderson (team-high 17 tackles for losses) and Tim Williams (15 1/2 tackles for losses) and sophomore safety Mikah Fitzpatrick (team-best five interceptions). Hurts passed for 2,592 yards and rushed for 841 and possesses two solid targets in sophomore wideout Calvin Ridley (66 receptions for 727 yards and seven touchdowns) and junior receiver ArDarius Stewart (52 for 852 and eight scores).

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
* Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 non-conference games.
* Over is 9-2 in Crimson Tide last 11 bowl games.

CONSENSUS: The Crimson Tide are the team of choice in this one, with 52 percent of users taking the favorite. The total is getting 64 percent of wagers on the Over.

Fiesta Bowl Betting Preview: Ohio State vs Clemson
By Covers.com

No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes vs No. 2 Clemson Tigers (+3, 59)

Clemson and Ohio State will meet in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff when they square off Dec. 31 in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz. Both teams have been selected for the four-team playoff for the second time in the three-year history. The Tigers reached the national championship game before suffering a 45-40 loss to Alabama last season, while the Buckeyes defeated the Crimson Tide and Oregon en route to the 2014 title.

Ohio State is the first team to be selected for the College Football Playoff without winning its conference championship. The Buckeyes missed out on the Big Ten title game thanks to a 24-21 midseason loss at Penn State, but they won their last five games of the regular season, including a double-overtime win over sixth-ranked Michigan. The Nittany Lions defeated Wisconsin 38-31 in the Big Ten championship game but finished at No. 5 in the playoff rankings.

For all the big-name offensive stars on both sides, the defenses could end up telling the story. Ohio State ranks in the top six nationally in passing defense, total defense and scoring defense, and the Buckeyes have piled up 19 interceptions – the fourth-most in the country – which bodes well against star Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has thrown 15 interceptions, though only two in the past three games. The Tigers boast a well-balanced unit that ranks ninth in total defense, a necessity against the Buckeyes’ powerful ground game.

HISTORY: The lined opened with Ohio State as 3-point favorites and was briefly bet up half-point to 3.5, than returned to 3 where it has held. The total opened at 60.5 and has faded two full points to 58.5. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Ohio State - WR Corey Smith (probable, undisclosed), OL Kevin Feder (questionable, foot), DL Tracy Sprinkle (questionable, leg), DT Malik Barrow (questionable, illness)

Clemson - DT Scott Pagano (probable, foot), OL John Simpson (probable, leg), DE Richard Yeargin (probable, knee), CB Adrian Baker (questionable, knee), OT Jake Fruhmorgen (doubtful, shoulder), WR Trevion Thompson (out, wrist)

ABOUT OHIO STATE (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 OU): The Buckeyes lean on one of the nation’s top running games, averaging 258.3 yards per game on the ground behind the trio of Mike Weber (1,072 yards, 9 TDs), Curtis Samuel (704 yards, 8 TDs) and quarterback J.T. Barrett (847 yards, 9 TDs). Barrett has done a solid imitation of his counterpart Watson, as he has passed for 2,428 yards with 24 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The Buckeyes do a good job of pressuring the quarterback – Tyquan Lewis leads the way with 7 1/2 sacks and 10 tackles for loss – and they will need to make Watson uncomfortable to have success slowing down the Tigers.

ABOUT CLEMSON (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS, 7-6 OU): The Tigers are tough up front on both sides of the ball, which they hope will help them slow Ohio State’s ground game and force Barrett to try to beat them with his arm. Despite a strong offensive line, Clemson has been inconsistent in its ability to run the ball, though Wayne Gallman (1,002 yards, 15 TDs) has gotten on track late in the season and Watson could look to run more after staying in the pocket more often during the regular season. Watson has a number of capable targets, but the Buckeyes likely will try to lock down star Mike Williams (84 receptions, 1,171 yards, 10 TDs) and make the lesser-known receivers beat them.

TRENDS:

* Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
* Tigers are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 vs. ACC.
* Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the ACC champion Tigers with 61 percent of wagers on Clemson. The over is getting 58 percent of the action.

Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril

LSU (-3, 59.5) vs. Louisville

This is the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida. My power ratings make LSU -3, so this line is spot on, and it is difficult to know the mindset of either team. LSU will be playing without star RB Leonard Fournette who has decided to skip this game. Meanwhile, Louisville struggled down the stretch of the regular season going 0-3 ATS, including back-to-back outright losses as -17 and -28.5 point favorites.

LSU’s offense averaged 28.3 points per game on 6.8 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 25.2 points per game on just 5.6 yards per play this season. The Tigers’ defense was excellent as they only gave 16.4 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 30.0 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.

Louisville lost their last two games of the season after opening the year with a 9-1 SU record. The Cardinals had a potent offense that averaged 45.3 points per game on an incredible 7.5 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 28.1 points per game on just 5.7 yards per play. Louisville’s defense was also terrific as they only gave up 23.3 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 27.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this year.

Kentucky vs. Georgia Tech (-3.5, 63.5)

This is the Taxslayer Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida. My power ratings make Georgia Tech -5, so there is some line value on the Yellow Jackets.

Kentucky averaged 31.0 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 28.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season. The Wildcats’ defense had a terrible season while giving up 37.4 points per game on a whopping 7.3 yards per play away from home. Kentucky has the advantage of several weeks to prepare for Georgia Tech's triple-option offense which runs the ball on 78% of their total offensive plays. However, it might not matter as the Wildcats had a terrible run defense this season which permitted 212 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry on the road.

Georgia Tech went 8-4 SU. The Yellow Jackets’ offense averaged 27.8 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 26.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. Georgia Tech’s defense only allowed 25.0 points per game versus offenses that averaged 27.8 points per game, but that’s a bit phony considering they gave up 5.9 yards per play to teams that only averaged 5.6 yards per play overall this year.

Books Flooded With Washington Huskies Action
By Patrick Everson
Covers.com

Bowl games have been rolling out in droves the past two weeks. Finally, we’re getting some games with meaning in the New Year’s Eve College Football Playoff semifinals. Covers talks about where the action is with Matthew Holt, COO of CG Analytics, which provides the lines for several Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Peach Bowl

No. 4 Washington Huskies vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide – Open: -14; Move: -15; Move: -16; Move: -15.5; Move: -15; Move: -15.5; Move: -15; Move: -14.5; Move: -15.5; Move: -14.5; Move: -14; Move: -13.5; Move: -14

With nearly four weeks since the Peach Bowl first hit the betting boards – and actually, even earlier than that with projected CFP matchups – this line has seen plenty of back-and-forth movement, though defending champion Alabama remains a hefty favorite. The Crimson Tide (13-0 SU, 9-4 ATS) hammered Florida 54-16 in the SEC Championship Game as a massive 24-point favorite, their 25th consecutive SU win.

Washington (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS) rebounded from a late-season home loss to Southern Cal, winning its final three games en route to the Pac-12 crown. In the conference title game, the Huskies rolled Colorado 41-10 as an 8.5 point chalk.

“So interestingly enough, when we opened this number, we saw a lot of sharp money on Alabama. Drove that line from 13.5 all the way up to 16. There were even some 17s out there if you shopped hard enough,” Holt said. “On the other side, though, it has been the public that has driven this line back down not just to 14, but back through 14, which is amazing. Really hard to go through 14, because now 14 is a real vulnerable number for the sportsbook here. But that’s public money.”

Holt said CG books, including those at The Cosmopolitan, Venetian and the M, have written four times more Washington tickets over the counter – typically public bettors – than Alabama tickets. That dropped the line to 13.5 on Thursday morning, though it did rebound a tick to 14 on Friday for this 3 p.m. Eastern kickoff Saturday.

“Look, the Crimson Tide have become the bad guys here. Nick Saban has become Darth Vader, the evil empire,” he said. “The fans want Washington to win, and we’re seeing them flood in and making over-the-counter wagers on the Washington Huskies.”

Fiesta Bowl

No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 2 Clemson Tigers – Open: +3; Move: +3.5; Move: +3; Move: +2.5

The Fiesta Bowl, with a 7 p.m. Eastern kickoff, hasn’t seen nearly the line movement, with CG instead adjusting the juice on this game over the past three weeks and keeping Ohio State as a field-goal favorite almost throughout. The Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) haven’t played since Nov. 26, when they edged Michigan 30-27 in overtime laying 4.5 points at home.

Clemson (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS), back in the final four for the second straight year, held off Virginia Tech in the Dec. 3 ACC Championship Game, winning 42-35 as a 10-point fave. The Tigers lost a thrilling national championship game to Alabama last year, 45-40 as a 6-point ‘dog.

“Huge pros vs. Joes distinction here,” Holt said of the second CFP semifinal. “Six times as much dollars wagered on the Clemson Tigers on account, but on the other hand, people coming into the casinos and betting over the counter at the sportsbooks, seven times the dollars wagered on Ohio State Buckeyes. So the public loves Ohio State, the sharper players love Clemson in this one. You could make a really good case for both sides here.”

CG books opened the Buckeyes at -3 back on Dec. 4, moved to 3.5 a day later, then back to 3 on Dec. 8, where the number remained until Friday afternoon, when Clemson cash forced a move down to 2.5.

“This is gonna be a great game,” Holt said.