College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, December 22nd, 2016
Idaho Potato Bowl - Boise: Colorado State - Idaho
Idaho is dropping back to I-AA football after next season, so this has special meaning for them; it is Vandals’ first bowl since 2009, just their third bowl ever (2-0, both in this game). Idaho’s QB is Matt Linehan, whose dad is Cowboys’ OC. Vandals won their last three games, covered their last six; they’re 4-3 as an underdog this year, 2-3 in games with double digit spread. Colorado State is in its 4th straight bowl; they’re 7-5 SU, covering their last seven games. Rams are 2-2 as a favorite, 5-0 vs spread in games with double figure spread. Sun Belt underdogs are 12-12 vs spread; Mountain West favorites are 8-8. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in this bowl the last five years; Mountain West teams won three of last four Potato Bowls. Sun Belt teams are 7-5 vs spread in last dozen games against Mountain West opponents.
Armadillosports.com
Idaho Potato Bowl - Colorado State - Idaho
Idaho is dropping back to I-AA football after next season, so this has special meaning for them; it is Vandals’ first bowl since 2009, just their third bowl ever (2-0, both in this game). Idaho’s QB is Matt Linehan, whose dad is Cowboys’ OC. Vandals won their last three games, covered their last six; they’re 4-3 as an underdog this year, 2-3 in games with double digit spread. Colorado State is in its 4th straight bowl; they’re 7-5 SU, covering their last seven games. Rams are 2-2 as a favorite, 5-0 vs spread in games with double figure spread. Sun Belt underdogs are 12-12 vs spread; Mountain West favorites are 8-8. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in this bowl the last five years; Mountain West teams won three of last four Potato Bowls. Sun Belt teams are 7-5 vs spread in last dozen games against Mountain West opponents.
Armadillosports.com
Colorado State faces Idaho in Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
By: StatFox.com
Idaho will be looking to win its first bowl game since 2009 when the team faces Colorado State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Thursday.
This game will be Idaho’s first bowl game since 2009, and it’s only fitting that it’ll be the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Vandals come into this thing on a four-game winning streak, and they have covered in seven straight games as well. They’ll come out with a ton of energy on Thursday, as this is essentially a home game for them. The crowd should be wild too, as these fans might not see many games like this from the Vandals moving forward. They’re moving to the FCS, so bowl games are no longer going to be an option. Their opponent in this matchup is also hot, as the Rams have won seven straight ATS and are coming off a 32-point win as an 11.5-point underdog at San Diego State. Colorado State’s offense has been something else in recent weeks, as the Rams are averaging 47.4 PPG over the past five contests. One trend that favors the Vandals in this game is the fact that they are 6-0 ATS away from home in games versus teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the past two seasons. Colorado State, meanwhile, is a similarly impressive 7-0 ATS after a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers on the year. The Rams are also 9-1 ATS when playing on a turf field this season.
Colorado State has had one of the most potent offenses in the nation recently and QB Nick Stevens (1,491 yards, 14 TD, 3 INT) is huge reason for that. Over the past six games, Stevens has thrown for 14 touchdowns and only one interception. He has had a QBR of over 90 in four of his past five as well. Stevens is making all the right decisions for this Rams team, and he’ll need to be on his game on Thursday as well. This game should be high scoring, and Stevens must be the best quarterback on the field in order for Colorado State to essentially win a road game. WR Michael Gallup (70 rec, 1,164 yards, 11 TD), Stevens’ favorite receiver, will also need to be ready to go in this one. Gallup has been on a tear as of late, caching 34 passes for 594 yards and six touchdowns over the past four games. He also happens to have a score in seven straight games and nine of the past 10 as well. Gallup should find a couple of holes in this game, and it’s likely he’ll find the end zone at least once. Defensively, this team allowed only 27.8 PPG this season (t-70th in NCAAF). That’s not necessarily a great number, but holding Idaho to 27 or fewer in this game would likely result in a win.
The fact that the Vandals are in this game is truly impressive, as head coach Paul Petrino has completely turned around this Idaho program. In his first year with the Vandals, the team went 1-11 and now they’re knocking on the door of a nine-win season only three years later. Where this Idaho team thrives is on the defensive side of the field. The Vandals gave up only 17.0 PPG this season (22nd in NCAAF) and that is good news considering Colorado State is in Boise for this one. They need to find a way to slow down the Rams, and they have fortunately been stifling opposing offenses all year. As for the Idaho offense, QB Matt Linehan (2,803 yards, 15 TD, 10 INT) is going to need to have one of the best games of his career on Thursday. He’s coming off of a brilliant performance against Georgia State, throwing for three touchdowns and no picks in the win. If his confidence has carried over then it should be a special night for Idaho. If he can’t get it going then this will likely be a very lopsided loss for the Vandals.
Thursday's Bowl Action
By Sportsbook.ag
Idaho Vandals vs. Colorado State Rams
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Colorado State (-13.5); Total set at 65.5
Although it's not a true home game for the Idaho Vandals in the Idaho Potato Bowl, playing down the road at Boise State's famed blue turf field should have the feel of a home game for the in-state team.
The Vandals will be looking for every edge they can get in this game as nearly two-touchdown underdogs against one of the point spread darlings of the year in Colorado State.
Colorado State went 10-2 ATS in their 12 games this year and ended the season covering the number seven straight times. Runs like that against the number will always be noticed by bettors everywhere, and the fact that Colorado State not only did so well, but won outright three times as underdogs suggests that this team has the attitude that they've always got a chance.
Flipping around to the roll of favorites is a bit different for the Rams, but it's nothing knew, and actually could be even better for those looking to back them here as they were a perfect 4-0 ATS when favored by 7 or more points this year.
Colorado's strong money making play down the stretch was largely due to their offense putting up monster numbers, as they scored 40+ points in four of their final five games, and likely could have made it five straight had they not taken their feet off the gas pedal in a 37-0 blowout win over Fresno State.
Efficiency and production like that is not good news for an Idaho team that relies on their defense to lead the way, and even if this is a de-facto home game for the Vandals, their own offense better be ready to put up some points if they want to stay in it.
The problem for this Idaho program is that playing in the Sun Belt doesn't bring the best competition and any time they did venture out of the conference to play upper echelon competition they were blown out of the building. Games at Washington (ranked #4) and @ Washington State ended in 59-14 and 56-6 blowout losses for the Vandals.
There is no comparision between those Power-5 schools and Colorado State, but the Rams are statistically better than most of anything Idaho sees in Sun Belt play and finished the year on such a roll offensively that the Vandals likely won't be able to keep up.
Idaho did finish the campaign covering the number seven straight times themselves (8-2 ATS last 10) and that's part of the reason why VegasInsider.com numbers currently show the Vandals getting about 60% of the support, but this is definitely a step up in class for Idaho – a program not used to the big stage – and de-facto home game or not, two touchdowns may not be enough.
This is Idaho's first bowl game as a program since 2009 and like we see every year at this time of the year, often times teams in that situation are merely happy to have reached a post-season game.
The same can't be said for a Rams program that is making their fourth straight appearance in a bowl game and trying to continually build a winning culture within their walls.
Two straight losses in those most recent bowl games haven't escaped the memory banks of these players and they'll be doing everything they can to cruise to victory and end this year on a high note.
Playing on the “Smurf Turf” in Boise is nothing new for the Rams either as they almost shocked the college football world with a huge upset there as +28 point underdogs vs. Boise earlier this year (28-23 loss).
Knowing what to expect – from the blue turf and the bowl atmosphere – gives the Rams a huge edge mentally, and their 8-0 ATS run against winning foes, and 14-3-1 ATS run against non-conference foes helps put them over the top to cover this large spread.
Best Bet: Colorado State -13.5
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The bowl season continues Thursday night on the famous smurf turf where Idaho will take on Colorado State at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl at Albertson’s Stadium in Boise. As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had the Rams installed as 15-point favorites with a total of 65. The Vandals were +500 on the money line (risk $100 to win $500).
Colorado State (7-5 straight up, 10-2 against the spread) has covered the spread in seven consecutive games. Mike Bobo’s squad is a double-digit ‘chalk’ for the third time this year after going 2-0 in a pair of such spots.
CSU closed the regular season by winning four of five games with the only loss coming by a 49-46 count at Air Force. Bobo’s club finished the regular season in style, blasting eventual Mountain West Conference champ San Diego State 63-31 as a 12-point road underdog.
Junior quarterback Nick Stevens completed 10-of-15 passes for 210 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Michael Gallup had seven receptions for 139 yards and three TDs, while Izzy Matthews rushed 14 times for 104 yards and a pair of scores. Dalyn Dawkins finished with 103 rushing yards on 15 carries.
The CSU defense forced a pair of turnovers and limited the NCAA’s all-time leading rusher Donnel Pumphrey to a season-low 53 rushing yards on 18 attempts.
This is the fourth straight season CSU is going bowling. After a pair of postseason trips under Jim McElwain, Bobo, the long-time Georgia offensive coordinator, took over in Ft. Collins when McElwain took the Florida job.
Bobo led the Rams to a 7-5 record and a trip to the Arizona Bowl in his first campaign as a head coach. However, CSU took a 28-23 loss to Nevada as a 3.5-point underdog to finish with a 7-6 ledger.
The season began on a dismal note in Denver, where Colorado destroyed CSU 44-7 as a seven-point favorite. In fairness, though, nobody had a clue what sort of season the Buffaloes were going to have at that time. The Rams would bounce back with victories over UTSA (23-14) and No. Colorado (47-21), but then they dropped to 2-3 with losses at Minnesota (31-24) and vs. Wyoming (38-17).
Since then, CSU has won five of its last seven games with four of those victories coming by margins of 18 points or more. The only setbacks were losses at Boise State (28-23) as a 28-point underdog and the aforementioned 49-46 loss at Air Force as a seven-point ‘dog.
For the season, Stevens has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,488 yards with a 14/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He lost his hold of the starting job in September but when true freshman Colin Hill (8/2 TD-INT) went down with a torn ACL on Oct. 8 vs. Utah St., Stevens resumed control and the Rams are perfect for our purposes since then.
Not only that, but Stevens has thrown at least a pair of TD passes in each of the six starts since Hill was injured. His lone interception in those six games came at Air Force.
Bobo utilized a balanced trio of running backs during the regular season. Dawkins has rushed for a team-best 801 yards and three TDs while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Matthews has run for 705 yards and 12 TDs with a 4.9 YPC average, while Marvin Kinsey has 546 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 5.9 YPC average. However, Kinsey tore his ACL at practice in early December and is ‘out.’
Gallup has 71 receptions for 1,170 yards and 11 TDs, earning him All-MWC first-team honors along with senior OG Fred Zerblis. The only other CSU player earning first-team All-MWC honors was senior punter Hayden Hunt.
The CSU defense is led by senior LB Kevin Davis, who recorded 101 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, four forced fumbles, four QB hurries, two passes broken up and one interception.
Idaho (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) is one of the nation’s biggest postseason surprises. Paul Petrino went 1-11, 1-10 (game at Florida was postponed) and 4-8 in his first three years at the helm. Going into his fourth season, the program found out it was being kicked out of the Sun Belt Conference following the 2017 campaign and would be moving down to the FCS level.
Under those far-from-ideal circumstances, Petrino led his team to just its third bowl bid in 21 seasons as an FBS program. Like CSU, Idaho took the cash in seven straight to close the regular season, winning six of those games outright.
Idaho has won four consecutive games, including three wins by double-digit margins. The Vandals are off a 37-12 win over Georgia State as four-point home favorites. They scored one TD on special teams and forced six turnovers. Matt Linehan connected on 15-of-19 passes for 126 yards and three TDs without an interception.
Linehan, a junior QB who is the son of Scott, the former Rams’ head coach, has competed 61.5 percent of his throws for 2,803 yards with a 15/10 TD-INT ratio. He spreads the wealth around with six players making 23 catches or more. This group is led by Deon Watson and Trent Cowan. Watson has 36 receptions for 555 yards and two TDs, while Cowan has 46 catches for 532 yards and six TDs.
RBs Aaron Duckworth and Isaiah Saunders split carries out of the backfield. Duckworth has run for 615 yards and four TDs with a 4.5 YPC average, while Saunders has 584 rushing yards, six TDs and a 4.6 YPC average.
Idaho owns a 4-3 spread record with three outright victories in seven games as an underdog. The Vandals have been double-digit ‘dogs five times, going 2-3 ATS with one outright win at UNLV (33-30 in overtime).
Idaho faced a pair of Power Five programs, losing 59-14 at Washington and 56-6 at Washington State.
Totals have been an overall wash for the Rams (6-6), but they’ve seen the ‘over’ hit in three straight and four of their last five. CSU’s games have averaged combined scores of 61.9 PPG.
Totals have been an overall was (6-6) for the Vandals, too, but they’ve seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in their last four contests. Their games have averaged combined scores of 58.0 PPG.
Famous Idaho Potato Betting Preview: Idaho vs Colorado State
By Covers.com
Idaho Vandals vs Colorado State Rams (-15, 65)
Idaho is concluding its next-to-last season as an FBS program before dropping levels with a matchup against Colorado State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Dec. 22 in Boise, Idaho. The Vandals qualified for a bowl game for only third time in 21 seasons in the FBS by winning six of their last seven games. The Rams have been torrid down the stretch, winning four of their last five contests - including a 63-point eruption in a triumph over Mountain West champion San Diego State.
The Vandals were dismissed from the Sun Belt effective after next season and are electing to drop down to the FCS level in hopes of enjoying more success and losing less money. Not much was expected from this Idaho squad when it lost consecutive games against Washington and Washington State in September by a combined 115-20 score, but coach Paul Petrino guided the team to a strong turnaround and is relishing the bowl appearance. "That's one reason I'm so proud of our players," Petrino said during a press conference. "They've been kicked out of a conference and told they were going to change divisions. They never worried about that. They worried about playing one game at a time."
The Rams are playing in a bowl for the fourth consecutive season, the second-longest streak in school history behind a string of five under Sonny Lubick from 1999-2003. Colorado State averaged an impressive 47.4 points and 520.6 yards over its final five games, with the four victories during the stretch coming by an average of 26.5 points. "Our football team has consistently improved throughout this season by the way they have worked and learned to compete, and I believe we are playing our best football late in the season," Rams coach Mike Bobo told reporters. "We are appreciative of this invitation to play in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, and I'm excited for this football team to have one more chance to play together, to keep improving and finish the season on a high note."
LINE HISTORY: The lined opened with CSU as 13.5-point favorites and over the past week that line briefly dropped to 13 before jumping up 15.5 by Thursday morning. The total opened at 64 and had risen one full point to 65. View the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Two surprise teams meet in the Potato Bowl, Colorado State who rallied to win 4 of its final five games, and Idaho who captured 8 wins after winning a total of 7 games combined the previous four seasons. More important, each team is riding a red-hot spread win streak with each team 7-0 ATS over their final seven games. Should be an entertaining battle of streaking squads." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Albertsons Stadium in Boise Idaho for Thursday night is calling for mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid-teens at kickoff. There will also be slight winds from the east.
INJURY REPORT:
Idaho - DB Dorian Clark (questionable, shoulder), DB Jordan Grabski (questionable, undisclosed)
Colorado State - DL Josh Lovingood (probable, knee), LB Kiel Robinson (questionable, ankle), RB Marvin Kinsey (out for season, knee)
ABOUT IDAHO (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 O/U): Junior quarterback Matt Linehan, who is the son of Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, has passed for 2,803 yards and 15 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Aaron Duckworth (615 yards, four touchdowns) and Isaiah Saunders (584, six) share the rushing workload while senior tight ends Trent Cowan (46 receptions, 532 yards, six touchdowns) and Deon Watson (36, 555, two) are Linehan's top targets. The defense held three of its last four opponents to 14 or fewer points and is led by middle linebacker Tony Lashley (team-best 99 tackles), defensive end Aikeem Coleman (team-leading eight sacks) and senior cornerback Jayshawn Jordan (team-high five interceptions).
ABOUT COLORADO STATE (7-5 SU, 10-2 ATS, 6-6 O/U): Things appeared bleak when standout freshman quarterback Collin Hill (1,096 yards, eight touchdowns) was lost to a torn ACL in his left knee in October, but former starter Nick Stevens was up to the task of saving the Rams' season. The junior tossed 14 touchdowns against just one interception over the final six games and standout receiver Michael Gallup (70 catches, 1,164 yards) recorded eight of his 11 receiving scores after Stevens regained the job. The defense is led by senior weak-side linebacker Kevin Davis, who posted a team-leading 101 tackles, with middle linebacker Josh Watson (80 tackles) and free safety Braylin Scott (team-high three interceptions) also enjoying solid campaigns.
TRENDS:
* Vandals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Rams are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
* Under is 5-0 in Rams last 5 neutral site games.
CONSENSUS: The public is backing Colorado State with 59 percent of wagers coming in for the Rams. The Over is grabbing 57 percent of the totals action.