College Football Betting News and Notes for Tuesday, December 20th, 2016

Boca Raton Bowl - Memphis - Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky won its last seven games after a 3-3 start, with five of last six wins by 35+ points, but WKU lost its coach to Purdue; they’re 5-4 as a favorite this year, 1-2 in games wth single digit spread. Memphis is 1-2 as an underdog this year, 3-3 in games with single digit spread. Tigers allowed 42+ points in all four losses; they’re 7-0 when allowing less than 42 points. Memphis lost three of last four bowls, allowing 41 ots/game; they beat BYU in OT in nearly Miami two years ago. Hilltoppers won 49-48/45-35 in bowl games last two years; this is their 4th bowl in last five years. C-USA non-conference favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AAC underdogs are 7-10. AAC teams are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games vs Conference USA opponents. Over is 7-3 in last ten Memphis games, 6-2 in last eight WKU games.

Armadillosports.com

Memphis faces Western Kentucky in Boca Raton Bowl
By: StatFox.com

Western Kentucky will be looking to end the season with an eighth straight victory by defeating Memphis in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday.

The Tigers played their best football down the stretch this season, as Memphis won (and covered) in three of its final four regular season games. The Tigers’ most impressive win of the season also came in the last game of the year, as they beat Houston 48-44 as four-point home underdogs. Memphis’ offense is rolling heading into this bowl game, as the team has now scored at least 40 points in three of its past four games. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, is also scorching hot coming into this one. The Hilltoppers have won seven straight games, and they have covered in five of those contests. They are also explosive offensively, scoring at least 44 in each of their past nine games. The trends in this game strongly favor Western Kentucky as well. The Hilltoppers are an impressive 12-3 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons. They are also 9-2 ATS versus teams with a completion percentage of 58.0% or better in that span. It’s worth mentioning that three of Western Kentucky’s final four games went Over the total and four of Memphis’ last six went Over as well.

Memphis is an explosive team, and the Tigers are going to need to be on their game on Tuesday. The winner of this game could very well score at least 50 points, and that means that QB Riley Ferguson (3,326 yards, 28 TD, 9 INT) will need to be ready to go. Ferguson was brilliant against Houston last game, throwing for 409 yards with four touchdowns and zero picks. He has already had a game with six touchdowns through the air this year (Sep. 24 vs. Bowling Green) and he just might need to turn a similar performance here. His favorite target in the passing game is WR Anthony Miller (84 rec, 1,283 yards, 11 TD), and Miller should also be in for a big day on Tuesday. He knows how to get himself open and has a knack for finding the endzone. On the ground, look for RB Doroland Dorceus (783 yards, 9 TD) to find a bunch of holes in this game. The Hilltoppers are lousy defensively, and Memphis knows that it can’t let Ferguson go out and throw every play. Dorceus will make things easier on him if he can run the ball hard and wear out the defense.

The Hilltoppers will be looking to make a statement with a win over Memphis on Tuesday, and QB Mike White (4,027 yards, 34 TD, 6 INT) is likely in for a huge performance. This Tigers defense was just shredded by Houston a week ago, and Western Kentucky has a much better passing game than the Cougars. Over the past three games, White has thrown for 10 touchdowns and only one interception. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him throw for 350 yards and at least four touchdowns on Tuesday. The guys that’ll be the recipients of those passes are WRs Taywan Taylor (89 rec, 1586 yards, 16 TD) and Nicholas Norris (73 rec, 1,253 yards, 13 TD). Norris just might be the most explosive player on the team, as he is a very good receiver and also has 12 rushes for 221 yards and a touchdown this season. He is dynamic in the open field and is surely going to do some damage on Tuesday. RB Anthony Wales (1,376 yards, 24 TD) should also thrive in this one. He is one of the best redzone runners in the nation and will definitely find the endzone at least once on Tuesday.

Tuesday's Bowl Action
By Sportsbook.ag

Memphis vs. Western Kentucky

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Western Kentucky (-6.5); Total set at 81

The 2016 Bowl Season got off to a great start on Saturday as my two free picks were able to sweep the board. Those of you that weren't shy about putting a ML bet on San Diego State even added to that tally and now that the first official Bowl Week has arrived, I'm looking to keep that momentum rolling. Tuesday's game is the Boca Raton Bowl between Memphis and Western Kentucky where we should see plenty of points based on the total alone.

Western Kentucky was an offensive juggernaut in Conference USA scoring 50 or more points in six of their final nine games and dominating opponents along the way. The Hilltoppers were able to avenge their lone conference loss to Louisiana Tech during the year by beating them in the Conference USA Title game (58-44) and all of that success helped HC Jeff Brohm move onto bigger things as he accepted the same position at Purdue earlier this month.

Purdue is hoping that Brohm's brilliant offensive mind can help turn their program around in the Big 10, but for right now you've got to wonder how his absence on the Western Kentucky sideline will affect that team. Coaches moving on from smaller programs after a successful year is a harsh reality in CFB at this time of year and it's the Hilltoppers that have to deal with it this time around.

Memphis is known for their offensive abilities as well although they weren't able to reach the same heights that Western Kentucky did this year. But the Tigers did play tougher competition with ranked foes like Temple, Navy, and Houston on their resume, and Memphis' 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS) record in those games speaks a bit to how well they should perform in this Bowl game. Obviously the #1 goal for the Tigers here is figuring out ways to slow down the Hilltoppers attack, but having a few weeks to prepare a plan of attack in that regard doesn't hurt.

Early action on the Boca Raton Bowl has seen Western Kentucky and their offense get plenty of support as this spread has been bet up to it's current number after opening up at -5.5. Offensive football teams tend to get plenty of support during Bowl season, but those backing Western Kentucky here will be quick to point out that their defense was tremendous down the stretch as well, holding three of their last five opponents to 7 points or less.

Yet, as I mentioned before, the competition level in Conference USA isn't quite what it is elsewhere (Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in last four non-conference games) – even in the AAC where Memphis resides – and this game could very well end up being one of those shootout-type games where the team with the ball last wins.

But the overriding factor for me making a play here is the Brohm absence. With coaches moving on being a regular occurrence this time of year, it's those teams that have been “abandoned” by their HC that you typically want to play against. Collegiate athletes get sold and play at a program in large part to the sales pitches those same coaches make during recruiting trips and these young, impressionable adults can't help but feel disappointed when those same coaches go back on their original message and become about themselves when the right opportunity comes up.

We saw this play out in spades during the Las Vegas Bowl when Houston played their sloppiest, worst game of the year as the motivation simply wasn't present. That worked out well for us being on the other side of that contest, and that's the angle I'm taking here by playing on Memphis and grabbing the points.

The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Conference USA opponents and have a 18-7-1 ATS run going against non-conference foes from any area. Memphis has all the talent to keep up with Western Kentucky on the scoreboard should that be the case, and without Brohm at the helm directing the Hilltoppers offense, it's tough to see them operating as efficiently or as successfully here.

Best Bet: Take Memphis +6.5

Boca Raton Bowl
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Western Kentucky won Conference USA for a second straight season, only to see that success translate into its head coach Jeff Brohm bolting to take the Purdue job on Dec. 5. Defensive coordinator Nick Holt has taken over on an interim basis.

Western Kentucky (10-3 straight up, 6-7 against the spread) is poised to put its seven-game winning streak on the line against Memphis at the Boca Raton Bowl in South Florida. As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Hilltoppers installed as seven-point favorites with a total of 80.5. Gamblers could take the Tigers on the money line for a +220 return (risk $100 to win $220).

Since taking over for Bobby Petrino, Brohm had led WKU to a 30-10 record, including three consecutive postseason appearances. The Hilltoppers beat USF 45-35 as 2.5-point ‘chalk’ at last year’s Miami Beach Bowl. They had beaten Central Michigan 49-48 at the Bahamas Bowl the previous year, but this game is remembered as one of the worst Bad Beats for WKU gambling supporters in the last decade. A Hail Mary Pass, coupled with a lateral and subsequent dash from one sideline to the pylon on the other side of the field, gave CMU a TD on the game’s final play.

Instead of going for the extra point that could’ve allowed WKU to possibly cover as a 3.5-point favorite in overtime, former Chippewas coach Dan Enos went for two and the try failed.

WKU junior QB Mike White, a transfer QB from South Florida, has thrown for 4,027 yards with a remarkable 34/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has 28 TD passes compared to just three picks in the last nine games.

Senior RB Anthony Wales has been nothing short of sensational, rushing for 1,376 yards and 24 touchdowns while averaging 6.8 yards per carry. Wales also has 26 catches for 239 yards and two TDs. Quinton Baker is a solid back-up RB, producing 533 yards and four TDs with a 5.5 YPC average.

White’s favorite target is WR Taywan Taylor, who became the school’s all-time leader in receiving yards before this year. He padded those record-setting stats with 89 receptions for 1,586 yards and 16 TDs. Nicholas Norris had 73 catches for 1,253 yards and 13 TDs.

WKU is ranked seventh in the nation in total offense, fifth in passing yards and second in scoring (45.1 points per game). The Hilltoppers are third in the country in run defense, limiting foes to 99.1 yards per game on the ground.

During its seven-game winning streak, WKU has compiled a 5-2 spread record. For the season, the Tops have limped to a 0-3 spread record with two outright defeats in three games as single-digit favorites.

WKU took two of its losses to SEC opponents, falling 38-10 at Alabama and 31-30 at home in overtime vs. Vanderbilt. The other setback was a 55-52 loss at Louisiana Tech. The Tops posted their best wins at Middle Tennessee (44-43), vs. ODU (59-24) and at Marshall (60-6) before earning revenge on Louisiana Tech in the C-USA Championship Game.

This time around, Brohm’s team hosted the Bulldogs at L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green. In a back-and-forth affair, Wales put the game on ice with a 13-yard TD run with 58 seconds remaining to lift WKU to a 58-44 win as a 12-point home favorite.

Wales rushed 36 times for 209 yards and four TDs, in addition to making five catches for 53 yards and one TD. White threw for 421 yards and three TDs with one interception. Taylor had seven receptions for 194 yards and two TDs, while Norris had six grabs for 150 yards.

The ‘over’ has hit at a 6-2 rate for the Tops in their last eight games to improve to 7-6 overall. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 69.2 PPG. This total (low 80s early this morning) will be the highest they’ve seen if doesn’t drop to lower than 78.5 points.

Memphis (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) finished third in the AAC and is bowling for a third straight season. The Tigers ended Year 1 under Mike Norvell with a thrilling 48-44 comeback win over Houston as six-point underdogs at the Liberty Bowl.

Memphis is led by junior QB Riley Ferguson, who began his collegiate career at Tennessee. Ferguson has thrown for 3,326 yards, the school’s all-time second-best season total. He was the catalyst against UH, connecting on 30-of-45 throws for 409 yards and four TDs without an interception. Anthony Miller hauled in 15 receptions for 169 yards and two TDs, while Phil Mayhue has six catches for 142 yards and two TDs.

Memphis took its defeats at Ole Miss (48-28), at Navy (42-28), vs. Tulsa (59-30) and vs. USF (49-42). Norvell’s squad picked up its best wins vs. Temple (34-27) and the aforementioned scalp of Houston.

The Tigers are 17th in the nation in scoring, averaging 39.5 PPG. They are 21st in passing. On the flip side, Memphis ranks 90th of 128 FBS teams in total defense.

Ferguson has completed 63.7 percent of his passes with a 28//9 TD-INT ratio. He has four rushing scores. Miller has a team-best 84 receptions for 1,283 yards and 11 TD, while Mayhue has 39 catches for 629 yards and four TDs. Junior RB Doroland Dorceus has a team-high 786 rushing yards and nine TDs with a 6.2 YPC average.

Western Kentucky had better be aware of Memphis freshman return specialist Tony Pollard, who was selected as the AAC’s Special Teams Player of the Year after ranking third in the country with 993 kickoff return yards. Pollard tied for third in the nation with two KOR’s for TDs.

Memphis has been an underdog four times this year, going 1-3 both SU and ATS. Like WKU this year with Brohm gone, the Tigers had lost head coach Justin Fuente to Virginia Tech going into their Birmingham Bowl showdown vs. Auburn last year. Auburn coasted to a 31-10 win as a three-point favorite.

The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for the Tigers, who have seen the ‘over’ go 7-3 in their last 10 contests. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 66.5 PPG. Just like WKU, this will be the highest tally Memphis has seen all season.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. The weather forecast is calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with only a 20-percent chance of rain.

Boca Raton Bowl Betting Preview: Memphis vs Western Kentucky
By Covers.com

Memphis Tigers vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-6.5, 80.5)

Western Kentucky is making its third straight bowl appearance and will face Memphis in the Boca Raton Bowl in Boca Raton, Fla., on Dec. 20. Head coach Jeff Brohm, who led the Hilltoppers to their second straight Conference USA championship this year, was hired by Purdue on Dec. 5 and defensive coordinator Nick Holt takes over in the interim for the bowl game. Memphis is making its third consecutive bowl appearance after finishing tied for third in the American Athletic Conference West Division.

The Tigers had a tough task replacing head coach Justin Fuente and quarterback Paxton Lynch after last season but barely missed a beat behind new coach Mike Norvell and quarterback Riley Ferguson. Memphis won three of the last four games to improve its bowl position, including knocking off then-No. 20 Houston 48-44 in the regular-season finale. The Tigers average 39.5 points and rolled up 555 yards of total offense in the win over the Cougars.

Western Kentucky closed out the season on a seven-game winning streak, capped by a 58-44 victory over Louisiana Tech in the C-USA championship game. The Hilltoppers are second among FBS teams with a scoring average of 45.1 points and bumped that number up to 52.1 over the last nine contests. Western Kentucky is aiming for its third straight bowl win after knocking off Central Michigan 49-48 in the 2014 Bahamas Bowl and beating South Florida 45-35 in the 2015 Miami Beach Bowl.

LINE HISTORY: Western Kentucky opened as 3.5-point favorites and the spread climbed steadily before settling at -6.5 on Monday. The total hit the betting board at 77, went as high as 81 and came back down to 79.5 the day before kickoff. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Conditions in Boca Raton are expected to be cloudy with temperatures in the mid-70's for kickoff. There will be a 5-7 mph cross-wind and a slight chance of a shower.

INJURY REPORT:

Memphis - WR R. Proctor (Questionable, undisclosed), DB A. Hall (Questionable, leg), DL J. Gentry (Out For Season, foot), RB S. Craft (Out For Season, back), DB B. Ross (Out Indefinitely, neck), DB K. Prewitt (Out Indefinitely, suspension), LB J. Dillon (Out For Season, knee), WR H. Hill (Out Indefinitely, knee), QB B. Davis (Out For Season, knee).

Western Kentucky - DL T. Jones (Questionable, shoulder), LB T. McCollum (Out, elbow), WR N. Fant (Out For Season, knee), RB D. Ferby (Out For Season, shoulder), DB M. Ward (Out For Season, knee), QB N. Fishback (Out For Season, pectoral).

ABOUT MEMPHIS (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS, 7-5 O/U): Ferguson saved his best performance for last, passing for 409 yards with four TDs and no interceptions against Houston to cap a 3,326-yard season. Ferguson's campaign places him second on the school's all-time single-season throwing yards' list behind Lynch's total of 3,776 from last season. Tigers freshman Tony Pollard was named the AAC's Special Teams Player of the Year after ranking third in the nation with 993 kickoff return yards and tied for third with two kickoff return TDs.

ABOUT WESTERN KENTUCKY (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS, 7-6 O/U): The Hilltoppers' offense is led by quarterback Mike White, who passed for 4,027 yards, 34 touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging 10.43 yards per attempt. Making White's job easier is senior wide receiver Taywan Taylor, who logged 1,586 yards and caught 16 of those TD passes, including two in the C-USA championship game. Western Kentucky's defense held three of its last five opponents under 10 points and recorded as many sacks (five) as rushing yards allowed against Louisiana Tech.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. CUSA.
* Tigers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games on grass.
* Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Tigers' last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 12-3-1 in Hilltoppers last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing Western Kentucky with 57 percent of wagers on the Hilltoppers. The over is getting 58 percent of the action.