College football betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, December 26, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
Utah Utes vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (+6.5, 55.5)
Game to be played at Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas
When the Big Ten couldn’t fulfill its allotted slot opposite the Big 12’s West Virginia, Heart of Dallas Bowl officials still wanted a matchup of Power Five teams for the Dec. 26 contest in Cotton Bowl Stadium and found what they needed in Utah of the Pac-12 Conference. The Utes needed a 34-13 win over visiting Colorado in their regular-season finale to become bowl eligible, giving the Pac-12 nine postseason teams. It will be the 36th bowl for the Mountaineers and 21st for Utah, and although it will be at least the fourth Texas-based bowl game for each school, both will be making their debuts in the Heart of Dallas Bowl, which is in its eighth season.
While both teams will be making their fourth straight bowl appearance and the two head coaches – West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen and Utah’s Kyle Whittingham – have coached in a combined 16 postseason contests between them, it’s the latter’s historic bowl success that’s garnering the pregame spotlight. The Utes own an impressive 16-4 all-time bowl record, and Whittingham has accounted for 10 of those wins for an NCAA-best postseason record of 10-1, including victories in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl over Pittsburgh (as a co-head coach) and the 2009 Sugar Bowl over Alabama. “Our secret formula is our players prepare hard and do it the right way, and that’s what it’s all about,” Whittingham said in the Dec. 3 bowl media conference call. “We don’t have a routine or a process that’s top secret. It’s just our guys in the program taking a lot of pride in bowl games, and they prepare the right way.”
The availability of both starting quarterbacks is in question for the game. West Virginia’s Will Grier, the nation’s seventh-ranked passer in terms of efficiency with 3,490 yards and 34 touchdown passes, had surgery after breaking the middle finger on his throwing hand in the first quarter of the Mountaineers’ loss to Texas on Nov. 18, and Holgorsen said the chances of the Florida transfer playing against Utah are “not good.” Meanwhile, dual-threat sophomore starter Tyler Huntley was a surprise pre-game scratch from Utah’s Nov. 25 regular-season finale with an unspecified injury, but Whittingham classified the QB’s bowl prognosis as “looking very positive” in an early-December interview with the Salt Lake Tribune.
TV: 1:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY: Utah opened as 4.5-point favorites and heading into game day that number is up to 6.5. The total hit betting boards at 54 and has been bet up to 55.5. Check out the complete line history here.
WHERE THE ACTION IS: According to William Hill US, Utah is drawing 51 percent of the tickets written and 83 percent of the money wagered.
INJURY REPORT:
Utah - DE K. Fitts (Probable, Undisclosed), QB T. Huntley (Probable, Undisclosed), WR D. Carrington II (Questionable, Undisclosed), DB J. Johnson (Out, Undisclosed), DB M. Blair (Out For Season, Leg), LB C. Drews (Out For Season, Undisclosed), DB T. Smith (Out For Season, Ankle), RB A. Shyne (Out Indefinitely, Leg).
West Virginia - OL J. Buccigrossi (Questionable, Knee), K M. Molina (Questionable, Hip), OL K. Bosch (Out, Undisclosed), QB W. Grier (Out, Finger), RB J. Crawford (Out, Personal), LB B. Ferns (Out For Season, Shoulder).
ABOUT UTAH (6-6 SU, 8-3-1 ATS, 6-6 O/U): Huntley also did miss starts on Oct. 7 and 14 with a shoulder injury, but went 5-4 as a starter with a combined 19 passing and rushing TDs while ranking second in the conference and 15th nationally with an average of 302.9 yards of total offense per game. If Huntley can’t play, the Utes have a capable backup in senior Troy Williams, who is 10-6 as a starter over the last two seasons, including a 9-4 mark a year ago. Whomever is throwing passes will frequently target senior wide receiver Darren Carrington II, an Oregon transfer who ranked second in the Pac-12 with 83.5 receiving yards per outing, while the defense (ranked third in the conference in rushing, total and scoring defense) and special teams (kicker Matt Gay and punter Mitch Wishnowsky both garnered multiple All-America honors) are the Utes’ unquestioned strengths.
ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (7-5 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 7-4-1 O/U): With Grier sidelined, redshirt sophomore Chris Chugunov started the Mountaineers’ regular-season finale against Oklahoma and went 10-of-20 for 137 yards in the 59-31 road loss, but the team made strong use of the Wildcat formation, featuring reserve tailback Kennedy McKoy who ran for a career-high 137 yards and three TDs in the contest. Starting tailback Justin Crawford, who rushed for a team-high 1,061 yards and seven TDs, announced Dec. 14 he will skip the bowl to focus on NFL Draft preparations, leaving wide receivers Gary Jennings, David Sills V and Ka’Raun White as the top offensive play-makers after they combined for 212 receptions, 2,988 yards and 30 receiving TDs. Defensively, senior linebacker Al-Rasheed Benton led the way with 102 total tackles, including 13 for losses, but the Mountaineers struggled for the most part, allowing 31.6 points (92nd nationally) and 452.5 yards (110th) per game.
TRENDS:
* Utes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 bowl games.
* Mountaineers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
* Over is 4-1 in Utes' last 5 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Mountaineers' last 8 games in December.
COVERS CONSENSUS: The Covers public is siding with the underdog West Virginia Mountaineers at a rate of 65 percent and the Over is getting 62 percent of the totals action on Covers.
Duke Blue Devils vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (+5.5, 47.5)
Game to be played at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.
Northern Illinois and Duke, teams that had lengthy bowl streaks interrupted last season, will each bring a standout defender and stingy defense to the Quick Lane Bowl on Dec. 26 at Ford Field in Detroit. The Huskies, who had a streak of eight consecutive bowl appearances snapped last season, are led by sophomore defensive end Sutton Smith, the Mid-American Conference Defensive Player of the Year and first Huskie since 1993 to be named to the Walter Camp Football Foundation All-America first team. Sophomore linebacker Joe Giles-Harris, who was a first team All-ACC and second team All-American pick after leading the Blue Devils in tackles (117) and tackles for loss (15), helped Duke return to a bowl game for the fifth time in six years after a 17-year absence.
Smith leads FBS in sacks (14), tackles for loss (28.5), pressures (73) and defensive touchdowns (two) - all school records - and is 3.5 tackles for loss away from the NCAA single-season record of 32 set by Western Michigan's Jason Babin in 2003. With Sutton wreaking havoc in the backfield, the Huskies enter ranked in the top 25 in FBS in nine defensive categories, including first in tackles for loss (106), second in sacks (41), 11th in rushing defense (112.3 yards per game) and 18th in total defense (328 yards per game). The 6-2, 230 pound Giles, who ranks third in the ACC and tied for 20th in the nation in tackles per game (9.8), heads a unit that ranked first in the ACC in opponent completion percentage (50.3), second in pass defense (174.8 yards per game) and third in interceptions (15), with four returned for touchdowns.
Northern Illinois finished in a tie for second place in the West Division of the MAC with its signature victory a 21-17 decision at Big Ten-member Nebraska. The Huskies are no strangers to Detroit and Ford Field, playing here in six consecutive MAC championship games from 2010-15, winning three times. Duke won its first four games this season by a combined 101 points, dropped its next six contests before rebounding with consecutive wins to close out the regular season, including a 31-23 triumph over Wake Forest on Nov. 25 behind a career-high 346 passing yards and three total touchdowns from Daniel Jones.
TV: 5:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
LINE HISTORY: The Blue Devils opened as 4.5-point favorites but are now 5.5-point chalk. The total opened at 47.5 and dropped a half point to 47.
WHERE THE ACTION IS: About 60 percent of the ticket count and 80 percent of the total handle bet was on Duke as of Monday last week according to William Hill US.
INJURY REPORT:
Duke - LB Ben Humphreys (Leg, Probable), K Austin Parker (Disciplinary, Out).
NIU - TE Shane Wimann (Foot, Out), RB Jordan Huff (Ankle, Out), CB Shawun Lurry (Wrist, Out), QB Daniel Santacaterina (Personal, Left team).
ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 O/U): Quarterback Marcus Childers, the MAC Freshman of the Year, took over the reins in early October after Ryan Graham suffered an elbow injury in Week 1 and Daniel Santacaterina battled turnover issues. Childers completed 57.3 percent of his passes for 1,440 yards with 15 touchdowns against five interceptions and picked up an additional 454 rushing yards with five more TDs. Senior Jordan Huff (740 yards in nine games, 5.8 per carry), will miss this game because of a season-ending ankle injury while Childers has five receivers that caught between 28 and 39 passes, but four of the five averaged less than 12 yards per catch.
ABOUT DUKE (6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 3-9 O/U): Prior to the big outing against the Demon Deacons, Jones (2,439 passing yards, 12 TDs; 432 rushing yards, six TDs) had passed for more than 200 yards only twice in his seven previous games, a big reason why the Blue Devils ranked last in the ACC in passer efficiency rating (110.3) and 12th in scoring offense (25.8 points per game). Senior Shaun Wilson (743 yards, five TDs) and freshman Brittain Brown (660, six) will split carries and junior wideout T.J. Rahming (61 receptions, 733 yards, one TD) will be Jones’ main target downfield. Duke sophomore kicker Austin Parker, who made 17-of-21 field goal attempts and averaged 42.1 yards per punt, was dismissed from the program for violation of university academic policy.
TRENDS:
*The Blue Devils are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games on fieldturf.
*The Blue Devils are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
*The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
*The under is 9-1 in Duke's last 10 games overall.
More Quick Lane betting trends
COVERS CONSENSUS: Nearly 55 percent of Covers contest players are backing the Blue Devils to cover as 5.5-point chalk and 59 percent like the game to play over the 47.5-point total.
Kansas State Wildcats vs. UCLA Bruins (+6.5, 60.5)
Game to be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.
Will he or won't he? UCLA starting quarterback Josh Rosen stated over the weekend that he wants to play in the Cactus Bowl, but he's yet to clear concussion protocol following a second injury to his head in the regular season finale. He finished the campaign 10th in the FBS in passing yards with 3,717, but the junior has been slowed by injuries the past two seasons and twice was unable to finish a game this fall.
He was replaced against California after getting sacked three times in the first half, but he has since returned to practice and appears ready to go against Kansas State, which has the second-worst pass defense in the FBS at 310.3 passing yards surrendered per game. Rosen's other postseason appearance came in the Foster Farms Bowl two years ago, when the Bruins were defeated by five-win Nebraska 37-29 in Santa Clara, Calif.
UCLA interim coach Jedd Fisch will try to send he and the Bruins out a winner when they face Kansas State in the Cactus Bowl on Dec. 26 at Chase Field in Phoenix. UCLA hired Chip Kelly on Nov. 25, six days after Jim Mora was fired following a 28-23 loss to crosstown rival USC, but Kelly won't officially take over until this season's over. Fisch guided UCLA to a 30-27 victory against California in the final regular-season game on Nov. 24, making the Bruins bowl-eligible after they missed out on the postseason a year ago.
Kansas State ended the regular season on a high note Nov. 25, defeating Iowa State 20-19 on a last-second touchdown pass which came a week after the Wildcats toppled then-No. 13 Oklahoma State 45-40 as 19 1/2-point underdogs. Kansas State met UCLA in the Alamo Bowl on January 2, 2015, and the 40-35 victory by the Bruins was somewhat overshadowed when Mora pulled his hand away from Kansas State coach Bill Snyder during their postgame handshake because he didn't like the way the Wildcats remained physical as the Bruins tried to run out the clock. Mora won't get that opportunity again, but the 78-year-old Snyder is still winning games for Kansas State.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
LINE HISTORY: The Bruins opened as 2.5-point underdogs but are getting 6.5 points because of Rosen's questionable status. The total opened at 62 and dropped to 60.5.
WHERE THE ACTION IS: About 70 percent of the ticket count and 87 percent of the total handle was bet on Kansas State as of Monday last week according to William Hill US.
INJURY REPORT:
UCLA - QB Josh Rosen (Concussion, Doubtful), QB Devon Modster (Thumb, Questionable), DL Jaelan Phillips (Undisclosed, Questionable), LB Lokeni Toailoa (Ribs, Questionable).
Kansas State - WR Dalton Schoen (Collarbone, Questionable), DB AJ Parker (Undisclosed, Questionable), QB Alex Delton (Concussion, Questionable), DB D.J. Reed (Undisclosed, Questionable), TE Dayton Valentine (Undisclosed, Questionable), DB Kendall Adams (Foot, Questionable).
ABOUT KANSAS STATE (7-5 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 6-6 O/U): The Wildcats are on their third quarterback this season, but they might be playing their best football behind freshman Skylar Thompson, who only threw two passes the first seven games but is a combined 25-for-34 passing in the past two games with four touchdown throws and no interceptions. Jesse Ertz started the first five games before he sustained a season-ending knee injury, and Alex Delton started the next four before he was sidelined with a concussion. Thompson has a nice choice of receivers in deep-threat Byron Pringle, who is averaging 25.2 yards on his 28 receptions, or Isaiah Zuber, who has caught a team-high 51 passes for 510 yards and four touchdowns.
ABOUT UCLA (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS, 8-4 O/U): The receiving corps for the Bruins took a couple major hits when leading receiver Darren Andrews sustained a season-ending knee injury on Nov. 3 against Utah, a month after sure-handed tight end Caleb Wilson was lost for the season with a foot injury. Rosen still has a great option in junior wide receiver Jordan Lasley, who's coming off back-to-back 200-yard receiving efforts while significantly improving his NFL Draft stock. The challenge for Rosen will be finding other receivers, as Lasley is sure to draw consistent double coverage, even against Kansas State's weak pass defense.
TRENDS:
*The Bruins 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
*The Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last nine bowl games.
*The Bruins are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
More Cactus Bowl betting trends
COVERS CONSENSUS: About 60 percent of Covers contest players are backing the Wildcats to cover as 6.5-point chalk and 59 percent like the game to play over the 59.5-point total.