College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, December 27th, 2016
Heart of Dallas Bowl - Army - North Texas
North Texas (+16.5) went to West Point Oct 22 and upset Army 35-18; UNT was +6 in turnovers in game where Cadets outgained North Texas 396-320- this is the only rematch of bowl season. This is unusual bowl: favorites won/covered this game the last five years, with all five games decided by 13+ points. North Texas beat UNLV 36-14 here three years ago, their only bowl since 2004. UNT is 2-5 all-time in bowls. Army is in its first bowl since 2010; they’re 3-2 all-time in bowls, with two losses by total of four points. Mean Green lost four of last five games; they’re 5-7 but the three 5-7 teams won their bowls last year. Conference USA non-conference underdogs are 9-11 vs spread this year. Under is 5-3 in last eight North Texas games.
Military Bowl - Wake Forest - Temple
Laying 13 points in a bowl with a team whose coach bolted for greener pa$ture$ is dangerous and not a great idea. Temple covered its last 11 games, is 10-3 SU, but Rhule is the new coach at Baylor now. Owls 6-1 as favorites this year, 6-1 in games with double digit spread- they won their last seven games, last six by 16+ points. Wake Forest is 6-6 but lost its last three games, scoring only 13 pts/game; Deacons are 5-1 as an underdog this year, 3-3 in games with a double digit spread. Wake is in its first bowl since 2011; they’ll be excited. Deacons covered four of last five bowls. Favorites covered this bowl three of last four years. ACC teams lost here two of last three years. Under is 5-1-1 in Wake’s last seven games, 5-0 in Temple’s last five. AAC favorites are 10-7 vs spread this year; ACC underdogs are 7-4.
Holiday Bowl - Washington State - Minnesota
Underdogs covered last four Holiday Bowls, winning three SU. Pac-12 teams are 1-4 in this game the last five years. This year, Washington State lost its first two games, its last two games but went 8-0 in between; Coogs are 3-3 as favorites this year, 2-4 in games with a single digit spread. Minnesota is 2-2-1 as an underdog, 3-3 in games with a single digit spread. Leach is 6-5 in bowls, 1-1 here; Wazzu is 7-5 overall in bowls. Gophers are in 5th straight bowl; they’re 1-3 in last four bowls, ending skid with win over Central Michigan LY. Coogs are 1-3 this year when scoring less than 30 points; Minnesota held nine of 12 opponents under 30. Last two years, Pac-12 teams are 3-8 vs Big 14 teams- they’re 4-8-1 vs spread in last 13 games when favored against a Big 14 squad. Over is 6-3 in Coogs’ last nine games, 4-2 in Gophers’ last six.
Cactus Bowl - Boise State - Baylor
Baylor started season 6-0, wound up 6-6; now they’ve hired Temple coach Rhule; not sure how it affects this game. Bears allowed 32.8 pts/game during its skid. Baylor was 3-2 in its last five bowls under Briles, with average total of 92.4. Baylor is 1-1 as an underdog, 1-4 in games with a single digit spread. Boise State is 10-2, covered one of its last seven games; they’re 4-8 vs spread, 0-2 in games with single digit spread. Broncos won four of last five bowls, scoring 40 pts/game; they won 55-7/38-30 in last two bowls. Underdogs covered three of last four Cactus Bowls; Big 12 teams are 4-1 in this game the last five years. Under is 7-4 in Baylor games this year, three of last four Boise games went over. Big X underdogs are 2-4 this season; Mountain West favorites are 8-8.
Armadillosports.com
Minnesota meets Washington State in the Holiday Bowl
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
Washington State will be hoping to end the year with a victory over a depleted Minnesota team in the Holiday Bowl.
When Minnesota takes the field on Tuesday, the Golden Gophers will not be anywhere near full strength. 10 players will not be playing due to suspension, and that almost caused Minnesota to boycott this game. Fortunately for the university and its fans, the Golden Gophers have decided to play in this one. They’ll be happy to get out there, as they definitely want to wash the taste of their most recent game out of their mouths. Minnesota led Wisconsin at the half, but the team ended up losing 31-17 as a 14.5-point road underdog. The Gophers imploded in that game, so they’ll be eager to put up a better effort on Tuesday. The Cougars also looked miserable the last time they played, as Washington State lost 45-17 as a six-point home favorite against Washington in the Apple Cup. The week before, the Cougars lost 38-24 as six-point underdogs in Colorado. This is a good football team, and they really shouldn’t lose three straight. Expect them to come out with a ton of energy in this one. One trend favoring Minnesota in this game is the fact that the team is 6-0 ATS versus teams that complete 58% or more of their passes over the past two seasons. Washington State, meanwhile, is 6-0 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards in its previous game in that span.
If the Golden Gophers are going to find a way to keep up with this high-scoring Washington State team then QB Mitch Leidner (2,040 yards, 7 TD, 12 INT) better step his game up. Leidner was downright awful against Wisconsin, completing 34.6% of his passes for only one touchdown. He also threw an embarrassing four interceptions in that game. Leidner must be more careful with the ball on Tuesday, as any of his mistakes can easily turn into seven points for an explosive Cougars passing game. Minnesota’s offense is, however, built around the run, and RB Rodney Smith (1,084 yards, 15 TD) could find some success in this game. He has not rushed for over 100 yards in three straight games, but this one should be different. Washington State’s rushing defense is more than capable of being gashed, and the Gophers know that they have no chance of winning this game if Smith is not picking up first downs. Defensively, Minnesota better be ready to defend the pass. Washington State has attempted 50 or more passes in three straight games, so the Gophers need to be on their toes.
Washington State has one of the nation’s top offenses and QB Luke Falk (4,204 yards, 37 TD, 10 INT) will be looking to put the cherry on top of a fantastic season on Tuesday. Falk did, however, struggle against Washington in the Apple Cup. He threw three picks in that game, and those mistakes really prevented his team from having a chance to pull off the upset. Still, this Minnesota defense is nowhere near as good as Washington’s. It’d be surprising if Falk can’t throw for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in this one He had done exactly that in each of the five games before facing the Huskies. When going to air, Falk will do his best to find WR Gabe Marks (85 rec, 867 yards, 13 TD). Marks had 11 receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown against Washington last game. He should be able to put up similar numbers against the Gophers in this one. Defensively, the Cougars are going to need to shut down the run. If they can force Minnesota to throw the ball with Leidner often then they should blow them out in this game.
Tuesday's Bowl Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Washington State at Minnesota
This Pac-12/Big Ten showdown will take place in San Diego at the Holiday Bowl. As of early Monday, most betting shops had Washington State (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) installed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 61. The Gophers were available on the money line for a +350 return (risk $100 to win $350).
Washington State is in the postseason for the third time in Mike Leach’s five-year tenure. The Cougars beat Miami 20-14 as three-point ‘chalk’ at last year’s Sun Bowl and in 2013, they dropped a 48-45 decision to Colorado State as 5.5-point favorites.
After losing its first two games at home to Eastern Washington and at Boise State by six combined points, Washington State ripped off eight consecutive wins before allowing a third quarter to get away in a 38-24 loss at Colorado as a six-point road underdog. Nevertheless, Washington State was in position to win the Pac-12 North with a home win over Washington in the Apple Cup to close the regular season.
Washington wasn’t having anything of it, though. Chris Petersen’s squad went into Pullman and captured a 45-17 win as a six-point road ‘chalk.’ The Huskies sprinted out to a 28-3 first-quarter lead and led 35-10 at intermission. Washington State cut the deficit to 35-17 on a nine-yard TD pass from Luke Falk to Gabe Marks midway through the third quarter. WSU would produced 160 third-quarter yards compared to only 13 for the Huskies, but the Cougars were stopped on fourth down at the 1-yard line to end an 81-yard drive with 37 seconds left in the third. The Huskies promptly marched 98 yards down the field to put the game on ice.
WSU is led by junior quarterback Luke Falk, who has completed 71.0 percent of his passes for 4,204 yards with a 37/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Marks led the Cougars with 85 receptions for 867 yards and 13 TDs, while Tavares Martin Jr. had 61 catches for 708 yards and seven TDs. Before going down with a season-ending injury in mid-November, River Cracraft had caught 53 balls for 701 yards and five TDs.
James Williams has rushed for a team-best 573 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Williams also has 47 catches for 313 yards and one TD. Jamal Morrow has run for 562 yards and five TDs with a 6.6 YPC average. He also has 43 receptions for 464 yards and five TDs. Gerard Wicks has rushed for 449 yards and 11 TDs with a 5.4 YPC average. Wicks also has 28 catches for 180 yards and one TD.
Washington State is ranked 15th in the nation in total offense, second in passing and 14th in scoring with a 40.3 points-per-game average. The Cougars have a weak secondary but are strong up front on the defensive line. They are 28th in the country at defending the run but a deplorable 122nd (of 128 FBS teams) against the pass.
Washington State has been a double-digit favorite six times, producing a 3-3 spread record.
Minnesota (8-4 SU, 4-5-3 ATS) thrived in the underdog role during the regular season, posting a 3-0-2 spread record with a pair of outright victories at Maryland and vs. Northwestern.
Minnesota will be without 10 players who were suspended for an incident back on Sept. 2 that involves sexual-assault allegations. Only a few of the 10 players are starters but two of them are starting defensive backs and two others are reserves in the secondary. This is bad news going against Washington State’s high-octane aerial attack. Sophomore CB KiAnte Hardin and freshman CB Antoine Winfield are two of the starters. Hardin had a pair of interceptions and a fumble recovery during the regular season, while Winfield had one pick, two fumble recoveries and four passes broken up.
Minnesota loves to pound the rock with the ground game. Rodney Smith finished fourth in the Big Ten in rushing with 1,084 yards. Smith ran for 15 TDs and averaged 4.9 YPC, while Shannon Brooks rushed for 599 yards and five TDs with a 4.8 YPC average.
Minnesota senior QB Mitch Leidner has completed 56.4 percent of his throws for 2,040 yards with an abysmal 7/12 TD-INT ratio. Leidner can also make things happen with his legs, rushing for 340 yards and 10 TDs. His favorite target is Drew Wolitarsky, who has 61 receptions for 787 yards and five TDs.
Minnesota is ranked 23rd in total defense, 19th against the run and 31st in scoring (22.9 points per game).
The ‘over’ is 7-4-1 overall for the Cougars, 6-2-1 in their last nine contests. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 67.5 points per game.
Totals have been an overall wash for the Gophers (6-6), but they’ve seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 in their last six outings. Their games have averaged combined scores of 53.2 PPG. This is the highest total Minnesota has seen all season. The two previous highs, 56 apiece vs. Oregon State and vs. Colorado State, both saw the ‘under’ prevail.
Baylor vs. Boise State
This is the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl that’ll be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ., the home of the Arizona Diamondbacks. As of early Monday, most spots had Boise State (10-2 SU, 3-9 ATS) installed as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 67. The Bears were +250 on the money line (risk $100 to win $250).
Baylor (6-6 SU, 3-9 ATS) has had a tumultuous season to say the least. Amid the sexual-assault scandal that engulfed the campus and was national headlines for months, former coach Art Briles was dismissed in late May and former Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe took over on an interim basis. Playing an easy schedule in September and October, Baylor started 6-0 but it limps into the postseason on a miserable six-game losing streak.
Boise State started 7-0 with quality wins vs. Washington State (31-28), at New Mexico (49-21) and vs. BYU (28-27), only to see its unbeaten record go up in flames in Laramie, where the Broncos lost a 30-28 decision to Wyoming. They answered with three straight wins over cupcake foes, only to fall to Air Force for a third straight season in the regular-season finale.
In the loss at Wyoming on Oct. 29 as a 14.5-point road favorite, Boise State jumped out to a 14-0 lead and still led 21-7 late in the second quarter. The Cowboys pulled to within 21-20 early in the fourth quarter, but BSU extended the advantage to 28-20 when Brett Rypien found Thomas Sperbeck for a 33-yard scoring strike with 10:50 remaining. Josh Allen’s 27-yard TD pass to Tanner Gentry made it 28-26 and a short pass to Jake Maulhardt for the two-point conversion evened things up with 6:42 left. Then with 1:25 remaining, Wyoming’s Chase Appleby sacked Rypien in the end zone for a safety to provide the winning points.
Boise State went 0-2 ATS with one outright defeat in a pair of single-digit favorite spots during the regular season.
BSU is 31-8 SU since Bryan Harsin took over for Chris Petersen. Harsin has led the Broncos to back-to-back bowl wins over Arizona (38-30 at the 2014 Fiesta Bowl) and No. Illinois (55-7 at the 2015 Poinsettia Bowl).
Rypien was the Mtn. West Conference Freshman of the Year and a first-team All-MWC selection as a freshman in 2015 when he threw for 3,353 yards and 20 TDs. In his sophomore campaign, Rypien again garnered first-team All-MWC honors by completing 61.8 percent of his throws for 3,341 yards with a 23/6 TD-INT ratio. He also had a pair of TDs rushing and had two catches for 42 yards and one TD on trick plays.
BSU has a balanced attack thanks to the presence of junior RB Jeremy McNichols, who rushed for 1,663 yards and 23 TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC. He’s also excellent at catching the ball out of the backfield, hauling in 32 receptions for 450 yards and four TDs. McNichols earned second-team All-MWC honors.
Like Rypien, Sperbeck earned first-team All-MWC honors for a second straight season. He had 72 receptions for 1,193 yards and nine TDs. Sperbeck also threw three TD passes on three attempts for 92 yards off of trick plays. Cedrick Wilson added 50 catches for 1,041 yards and 10 TDs. BSU put a pair of offensive linemen on the first-team All-MWC unit: Travis Averill and Mario Yakoo.
BSU is ranked 45th in the country in total defense, 26th versus the pass and 28th in scoring (22.7 PPG). This unit is led by a pair of first-team All-MWC selections in senior DE Sam McCaskill and sophomore nose tackle David Moa. McCaskill recorded 48 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, five passes broken up, one QB hurry and one blocked kick. Moa registered 27 tackles, 8.5 TFL’s, 7.5 sacks, four PBU and one blocked kick.
Baylor really only has two victories of note all year, beating Oklahoma State 35-24 at home and winning a 45-42 decision at Iowa State (and yes, we’re reaching here with the win at Iowa State, but Ames tends to claim a few victims of note regularly). The six-game slide started with a 35-34 loss at Texas. Next, TCU went into Waco and won by 40 in the first of four straight defeats by margins of at least 19 points until the tight game in Morgantown.
Baylor lost its team leader in senior QB Seth Russell when he went down with a season-ending ankle injury in a 45-24 loss at Oklahoma. Russell had thrown for 2,126 yards with a 20/8 TD-INT ratio in the first nine games. The dual-threat signal caller had also rushed for 506 yards and eight TDs.
Since Russell went down, true freshman Zach Smith has started the last three games. He has completed 56.1 percent of his passes for 1,151 yards with a 10/6 TD-INT ratio.
Just like LSU’s Leonard Fournette and Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey, Baylor RB Shock Linwood has chosen to skip his team’s bowl game to stay health and begin prepping for the NFL Draft. Linwood is the Bears’ all-time leading rusher, but he has mostly been a disappointment in 2016. He was suspended for one game and ran for more than 100 yards in only two games. Linwood finished the year with a career-low 751 rushing yards and two TDs with a 5.4 YPC average.
Terrence Williams led the Bears in rushing with 945 yards and 11 TDs with a 5.9 YPC average. KD Cannon paced Baylor in receptions (73), receiving yards (989) and TD catches (11), while Ishmael Zamora caught 58 balls for 786 yards and seven TDs.
This is Baylor’s seventh straight trip to the postseason. The Bears beat up on North Carolina by a 49-38 count at last year’s Russell Athletic Bowl as 3.5-point underdogs.
Baylor has only been an underdog twice, going 1-1 ATS. The lone cover came in the regular-season finale at West Virginia in a 24-21 loss as a 17-point ‘dog.
Baylor has hired former Temple coach Matt Rhule to lead it into the future, while Grobe plans to return back to retirement
The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for the Bears, but they’ve seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 in their last five outings. Their games have averaged combined scores of 65.3 PPG.
The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for the Broncos despite a 3-1 run for the ‘over.’ Their games have averaged combined scores of 58.2 PPG.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
There are four total bowl games on Tuesday’s slate, including a pair of early starts. The action starts at noon Eastern when North Texas and Army collide at the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl on ESPN. Army (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) is an 11.5-point favorite over the Mean Green at most spots, while the total is 48.5. These teams met on Oct. 22 with North Texas capturing a 35-18 win as a 17.5-point road underdog. The Mean Green took advantage of seven Army turnovers in the upset victory. Jeffrey Wilson led UNT with 160 rushing yards and three TDs on 15 carries. The Mean Green, which is 5-7 SU and 6-5-1 ATS, has compiled a 5-4-1 spread record with four outright victories as an underdog. Meanwhile, Army owns a 2-2 record both SU and ATS in four games as a double-digit ‘chalk.’
This is Army’s first postseason appearance since 2010 when it beat SMU 16-14 as a seven-point underdog.
North Texas is bowling for the first time since knocking off UNLV 36-14 as a 6.5-point favorite at this same event.
The Military Bowl in Annapolis, MD., will feature an AAC/ACC showdown between Temple and Wake Forest. As noted earlier, Temple lost its head coach Matt Rhule to Baylor. Most spots have the Owls installed as 12-point ‘chalk.’ They own the nation’s best spread record (12), taking the cash 12 times in a row since losing their opener to Army as double-digit favorites. Temple won the AAC by thumping Navy earlier this month. Wake Forest (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) has been a double-digit ‘dog four times this season, posting a 3-1 spread record. The Demon Deacons went 5-1 ATS in six games as underdogs. They have lost five of their last six contests since starting 4-0 and 5-1. Wake is bowling for the first time since Dave Clawson replaced Grobe in 2014. Grobe had the Deacs in the 2011 Music City Bowl, where they dropped a 23-17 decision to Mississippi State but took the cash as 6.5-point ‘dogs. This game will come off the board at 3:30 p.m. Eastern and be televised by ESPN.
UConn fired Bob Diaco on Monday after he limped to an 11-26 record during his three-year tenure.
Baylor, Boise State clash in Cactus Bowl
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
A bowl win would go a long way for a Baylor program undergoing tough times.
This year’s edition of the Cactus Bowl features two teams that put up disappointing late-season performances, although one participant’s back half of the season was truly disastrous while the other’s just ended on a tough note. The former is the Baylor Bears, a team that lost the head coach that built its program, Art Briles, over the offseason due to a sexual assault scandal that rocked the university. Despite the adversity, Baylor emerged from a mostly-easy first half schedule—and a game against Oklahoma State, too—with a 6-0 record and bowl eligibility. The problem? They lost every game thereafter, finishing the season 6-6 and 3-9 against the spread. In the middle stretch of that six-game losing streak, Baylor lost four straight games by at least 21 points, including a 62-22 defeat to rival TCU (TCU +7). Their opponent in the Cactus Bowl, Boise State, did not see things go nearly as poorly, but a 3-2 finish to a season they started 7-0 saw them finish 10-2 (3-9 ATS) and cost them a shot at the Mountain West Championship game. It was a 27-20 loss at Air Force (AF +7) in the final week of the regular season that ultimately did them in; they failed to punch in a touchdown at the goal line to tie that one up at the end. Over the last five seasons, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a conference loss of three points or fewer (BAY) are 20-43 ATS in games played after the first month of the season. During Bryan Harsin’s time as head coach of the Broncos, Boise State is 11-3 Over against the total. Star Baylor RB Shock Linwood will not play in the game, so as not to risk injury before the upcoming NFL draft. His mate in the backfield, RB Terence Williams, is considered probable to play despite a knee injury.
Even though QB Seth Russell (54.7 CMP%, 2,126 yards, 20 TDs, 10 INTs; 94 carries, 506 yards, 8 TDs) wasn’t living up to his gaudy numbers from seasons past, the Bears offense suffered a large blow when it lost him for the season to a fractured ankle against Oklahoma on November 12. Since then, the man under center for the Bears has been freshman Zach Smith (56.1 CMP%, 1,151 yards, 10 TDs, 6 INTs). Considering his inexperience, the high number of turnovers he has committed were to be expected. His playmaking ability, on the other hand, is a pleasant surprise—if not a huge one for a program that has had one of the nation’s most explosive offenses in recent years. His best performance was in the penultimate game of the regular season, when he completed 30 of 46 passes for 377 yards, three touchdowns and an interception against Texas Tech. Smith has vibed well with WR K.D. Cannon (73 catches, 989 yards, 11 TDs), who has been unstoppable under his new quarterback. In the three games that Smith has started, Cannon has 26 total catches for 307 yards and three touchdowns. He also caught a 62-yard bomb from Smith when he came on in the Oklahoma game. Other key wideouts for Baylor include Ishmael Zamora (58 catches, 786 yards, 7 TDs), Chris Platt (29 catches, 485 yards, 4 TDs) and Blake Lynch (34 catches, 404 yards, 3 TDs), all of whom are underclassmen. In the Bears’ last two games, Zamora has 20 total catches for 257 yards and two touchdowns. Linwood (138 carries, 751 yards, 2 TDs) is perhaps one of the best-known RBs in the country, but Williams (160 carries, 945 yards, 11 TDs) has been the lead back for Baylor this season. He has 237 rushing yards and three touchdowns in the last two games, while Linwood has 47 total rushing yards in those games. On defense, Baylor is 83rd in the country with 434 yards allowed per game and 82nd with 30.4 points allowed per game. DE K.J. Smith was a First Team All-Big 12 selection this season and S Patrick Levels was a Second Team selection.
Many Boise State fans are already excited for their future under sophomore QB Brett Rypien (61.8 CMP%, 3,341 yards, 23 TDs, 6 INTs), who, after the Cactus Bowl, will have two full seasons of starting at quarterback under his belt. He showed great improvement from his freshman campaign, throwing more touchdowns, fewer interceptions and taking fewer sacks (so far), and he’s averaging nearly two more whole yards per attempt. He was among the best quarterbacks in the Mountain West, ranking second in passer rating (162.3), second in touchdown passes and first in yards per attempt (9.7). He posted a very odd stat line in his most recent game, completing only 9 of 26 passes against Air Force but still throwing for 316 yards and a touchdown on the day. In his two games against Power Five teams this season (Washington State and Oregon State in September), he completed 53.5% of his passes for 257 yards per game, two total touchdowns and three interceptions. (The Broncos won both games.) Rypien has two of the conference’s best receivers to throw to in WRs Thomas Sperbeck (72 catches, 1,193 yards, 9 TDs) and Cedrick Wilson (50 catches, 1,041 yards, 10 TDs). They each rank in the top five in the MWC—and top 30 in the nation—in receiving yards. They were both spectacular against Air Force, combining for 316 yards and a touchdown. Somehow, though, neither Sperbeck nor Wilson is the most heralded skill position player on this team. That would be RB Jeremy McNichols (295 carries, 1,663 yards, 23 TDs; 32 catches, 450 yards, 4 TDs), who is fifth in all of FBS in rushing yards and third in rushing touchdowns. His 88 yards against Air Force was actually his lowest rushing total in a game since early October. Considering the superstar ahead of him, freshman RB Alexander Mattison (59 carries, 307 yards, 4 TDs) has put up impressive numbers, too. Defensively, the Broncos rank 45th in the country with 379 yards allowed per game and 29th with 22.7 points allowed per game. DE Sam McCaskill and DT David Moa were both First Team All-Mountain West selections.
NCAAF: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Baylor vs. Boise State
The Baylor Bears (6-6, 3-9 ATS) and Boise State Broncos (10-2, 3-9 ATS) will both be looking to end the season on a positve note when they meet in the Cactus Bowl Tuesday night at Chase Field in Phoenix Arizona. Baylor tries to snap a six-game losing streak (1-5 ATS) while the Broncos' attempt to recorver from a loss to Air Force which eliminated them from the Mountain West Championship.
The Baylor missing QB Seth Russell (fractured ankle) but also without RB Shock Linwood who is skipping the bowl to prepare for NFL draft are in complete meltdown. Baylor with a non-existent defense allowing a whopping 43.7 points per/game during the six game skid expect Broncos' to lay a beating on Bears. Consider laying the expect -7.5 point on Broncos' being offered at Sports Interaction as they're 6-2 SU/ATS in Bowl games, 8-3 ATS in neutral site games
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl Betting Preview: Army vs. North Texas
By Covers.com
Army Black Knights vs. North Texas Mean Green (+11.5, 48.5)
This year's Heart of Dallas Bowl on Dec. 27 at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas will feature a rematch between two teams that played in the regular season -- Army and North Texas. The visiting Mean Green defeated Army 35-18 on Oct. 22, handing the Black Knights their first home loss of the season. How well Army can slow down running back Jeffrey Wilson, who went for 160 yards and three touchdowns in the first matchup, will be a key to this game.
The Mean Green didn’t exactly take the regular route to a bowl game, dropping four of their last five to finish under .500. North Texas is only in a bowl because there weren’t enough 6-6 teams to fill all the available spots, allowing a handful of five-win squads into the party. Selections were based on academic progress rate scores, and the Mean Green ranked second among teams not bowl eligible, giving North Texas its ninth bowl game in school history.
Army is back in a bowl game for the first time since 2010, thanks in large part to the play of quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw. The dual-threat junior signal caller finished second on the team in rushing with 695 yards and paced the passing game with 650 yards, accounting for 11 touchdowns either on the ground or in the air. The Black Knights aren’t going to pass much in any game, but after throwing four interceptions in the loss to North Texas earlier this season, Bradshaw will need to be especially choosy about his aerial attempts in this contest.
LINE HISTORY: North Texas opened this game as 8.5-point underdogs and despite playing this game in its home state, they've been faded to +11.5. The total opened at 49 and has been bet down to 49.5. Check out the complete line history here.
WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies in Dallas, with temperatures in the mid 50's for the game.
INJURY REPORT:
Army - No injuries to report.
North Texas - RB J. Wilson (probable Tuesday, knee), OL G. Gunter (questionable Tuesday, undisclosed), WR R. Bussey Jr. (quesitonable Tuesday, undisclosed), OL E. Woodworth (questionable Tuesday, undisclosed), QB M. Fine (out Tuesday, shoulder), RB W. Ivery (out Tuesday, academics).
ABOUT ARMY (7-5, 7-5 ATS, 4-8 O/U): The constant to the Army ground attack has been sophomore running back Andy Davidson, who leads the team with 178 carries for 905 yards and 11 touchdowns. Still, in the loss to North Texas he ran the ball just 16 times for 70 yards and no scores, and averaged 78.7 yards in the team's five losses -- missing one completely with injury. The Black Knights are able to attack on the ground with a number of different players, but if Davidson isn't having his usual success the Army offense can get slowed down.
ABOUT NORTH TEXAS (5-7, 6-5-1 ATS, 5-7 O/U): If the Mean Green are going to repeat their win over Army from earlier this year, the defense must improve. In the five games since holding the Black Knights to 18 points -- the fewest by a North Texas opponent this year -- the Mean Green have allowed an average of 39.2 points while going 1-4. North Texas forced seven turnovers against Army but managed just six since, meaning the team's leading tackler defensive back Kishawn McClain (86 tackles) and the rest of the defense need to be more opportunistic in their season finale.
TRENDS:
* Army is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games in December.
* North Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Under is 15-2 in Army's last 17 neutral site games.
* Under is 8-3 in North Texas' last 11 games following a straight up loss.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-eight percent of the public is backing Army, while 55 percent of the wagers are on the Over.
Military Bowl Betting Preview: Temple vs. Wake Forest
By Covers.com
Temple Owls at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+12, 41)
Interim coach Ed Foley leads American Athletic Conference champion Temple into action in the Military Bowl on Dec. 27 against Wake Forest at the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Md. Foley took over after Rhule left to become coach at Baylor following the Owls' 34-10 victory over Navy in the AAC championship game Dec. 3. Foley has been with Temple since 2008 and served in several capacities, including special teams and tight ends coach this season.
Under Rhule's guidance, the Owls won 20 out of their last 27 games including the last seven, and take on a Wake Forest team that has lost six of its last eight games under coach Dave Clawson. The Owls are led by a pair of dynamic seniors from Elizabeth, N.J., in quarterback Phillip Walker and running back Jahad Thomas, who helped orchestrate a remarkable turnaround from 2-10 in 2013 to 10-3 this season. Walker has thrown for more than 10,000 yards and 72 touchdowns as a four-year starter while Thomas is poised for his second straight 1,000-yard season, needing 82 yards against Wake Forest to reach the milestone.
Wake Forest opened the season with four straight wins and was 5-1 after a victory over Syracuse, but faltered when matched up with some of the ACC's best. The Demon Deacons will likely need to put forth one of their best defensive efforts of the season to win this game as they lack the offensive firepower to match the Owls, who have close to a two touchdown advantage in points scored per game. Clawson's team will run the ball with the likes of quarterback John Wolford and running backs Matt Colburn and Cade Carney while picking their spots in the passing game, which has yielded seven touchdowns this season.
LINE HISTORY: Temple opened has 13.5-point favorites and were faded to as low as -11.5, but have bounced back to the current number of -12. The total opened at 41 and ahs yet to move off that number. Check out the complete line history here.
WEATHER REPORT: A shower or two possible is early with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. The expected high is 62F. Winds gusting out of the west at 10 to 15 mph. There will be a 30 percent chance of rain.
INJURY REPORT:
Temple - DB K. Lucas (questionable Tuesday, undisclosed), DB J. Thomas (questionable Tuesday, undisclosed), DB N. Smith (questionable Tuesday, leg).
Wake Forest - DB R. Janvion (probable Tuesday, toe), QB J. Wolford (probable Tuesday, shoulder), RB I. Robinson (questionable Tuesday, leg), DB A. Austin (questionable Tuesday, hand), DB (out Tuesday, shoulder).
ABOUT TEMPLE (10-3, 12-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U): After struggling a bit on defense during the middle of the season, the Owls were solid over the season's final month, limiting five opponents to a total of 33 points. Two more seniors from New Jersey - Haason Reddick and Praise Martin-Oguike - have been disruptive along the defensive line, totaling 31.5 tackles for loss, 17 sacks and six forced fumbles. Stephaun Marshall and Delvon Randall are the top tacklers for a unit that has surrendered only one rushing and three passing touchdowns over the past five games.
ABOUT WAKE FOREST (6-6, 7-5 ATS, 5-7 O/U): The Demon Deacons have several difference-makers on defense in junior lineman Duke Ejiofor, senior linebacker Marquel Lee and freshman safety Jessie Bates III. Ejiofor and Lee combined for 34 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks while Bates is second on the team in tackles to Lee and first in interceptions. Bates, who led all FBS freshmen in interceptions, interception return yards and interceptions returned for touchdowns, was named to the USA Today Freshman All-America Team.
TRENDS:
* Temple is 12-0 ATS in the last 12 games overall.
* Wake Forest is 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 5-0 in Temple's last five games overall.
* Under is 5-2 in Demon Deacons last seven games overall.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-eight percent of wagers are backing Temple to cover its 13th consecutive game. As for the total, 62 percent of wagers are on the Over.
Holiday Bowl Betting Preview: Minnesota vs. Washington State
By Covers.com
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Washington State Cougars (-10, 61)
After watching its Rose Bowl hopes fade with two late losses, Washington State looks to end the season on a winning note as the Cougars face Minnesota in the National Funding Holiday Bowl in San Diego on Dec. 27. Washington State bounced back from two early losses to contend in the Pac-12 before closing with back-to-back losses to Colorado and rival Washington, while Minnesota will play in a bowl game for a program record-tying fifth straight season. The Gophers will be hard-pressed to slow down the Cougars’ Air Raid attack, which led the Pac-12 and placed second nationally at 370.8 passing yards per game.
It will be even tougher for the Gophers to slow Washington State's passing attack after it was announced Tuesday that 10 Minnesota players were suspended from the Holiday Bowl stemming from an incident in an off-campus apartment Sept. 2. Among those who will not play are starting defensive backs KiAnte Hardin - a sophomore - and freshman Antoine Winfield Jr., along with secondary reserves in freshman Ray Buford and sophomore Antonio Shenault. Hardin recorded two interceptions, six passes defended and a fumble recovery while Winfield had a pick, four passes defended and two fumble recoveries.
Washington State junior quarterback Luke Falk has completed 71 percent of his passes for 4,204 yards and 37 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, and he’s been helped this season by a surprising running game led by the trio of Jamal Morrow, James Williams and Gerard Wicks. In order to keep Falk and the Cougars’ explosive offense off the field, Minnesota will need to control the clock behind sophomore Rodney Smith, who finished fourth in the Big Ten with 1,084 rushing yards and scored 16 touchdowns. Senior quarterback Mitch Leidner added 10 rushing touchdowns but threw 12 interceptions.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers pegged Washington State as 5.5-point favorites, but they have since moved all the way to -10. The total opened at 60 and have been bet up to 61. Check out the complete line history here.
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football in San Diego, with the forecast calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 60's.
INJURY REPORT:
Minnesota - DB A. Starks (questionable Tuesday, undisclosed), OL J. Weyler (questionable Tuesday, tricep).
Washington State - LB I. Dotson (questionable Tuesday, undisclosed).
ABOUT MINNESOTA (8-4, 4-5-3 ATS, 6-6 O/U): While first-year coach Tracy Claeys failed to record any marquee victories, the Gophers avoided any major missteps and nearly won at Penn State in early October before falling 29-26 in overtime. Leidner has completed 56.4 percent of his passes for 2,040 yards and seven touchdowns, including five to Southern California native Drew Wolitarsky, who has caught 61 passes for 787 yards. The Gophers ranked 13th in the Big 10 in pass defense but linemen Steven Richardson and Blake Cashman combined for 13.5 sacks and could help disrupt Falk’s rhythm.
ABOUT WASHINGTON STATE (8-4, 6-6 ATS, 7-4-1 O/U): Falk is without injured starting wide receiver River Cracraft but still has a pair of potent deep threats in Gabe Marks and Tavares Martin Jr., who combined for 146 catches, 1,575 yards and 20 touchdowns. Left guard Cody O'Connell was named a first team All-American while safety Shalom Luani joined Marks as an All-Pac-12 first team selection after recording four interceptions along with 58 tackles, including 8.5 for loss. The Cougars’ underrated defense includes linebacker Peyton Pelluer, who had a team-high 89 tackles and will play a key role in slowing down the Gophers’ running game.
TRENDS:
* Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Pac-12 opponents.
* Washington State is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-0 in Minnesota's last four games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Washington State's last five games following a straight up loss.
CONSENSUS: The public is backing Washington State in this matchup, with 66 percent of wagers on the Cougars. As for the total, 65 percent of the wagers are on the Over.
Cactus Bowl Betting Preview: Boise State vs. Baylor
By Covers.com
Boise State Broncos vs. Baylor Bears (+7.5, 67)
Baylor will try to end the up-and-down Jim Grobe coaching era on a high note when it faces Boise State in the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl on Dec. 27 at Chase Field in Phoenix, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Grobe took over on an interim basis when Art Briles was fired on May 26 amid the school's sexual assault scandal and led the team to a 6-0 start, but the Bears, who hired Temple's Matt Rhule to become permanent head coach last week, limp into the contest with a six-game losing streak. "I'm very excited for our players to have an opportunity to play in the Cactus Bowl against a great football team in Boise State," Grobe told reporters. "I think our guys are looking forward to coaching these kids and getting them ready for a bowl game. So I feel good about playing in a bowl game. This is going to be it for me, so I'd like to win it for sure."
Playing a Big 12 opponent in the Phoenix area brings back some fond memories for Boise State football fans. The last time the Broncos played a Big 12 opponent in a bowl game was the 2007 Fiesta Bowl against Adrian Peterson-led Oklahoma when Boise State pulled out a memorable 43-42 overtime upset victory. That contest is famous for a 50-yard hook and ladder touchdown play by the Broncos on 4th-and-18 with 18 seconds to go to force overtime, and then Boise State won it with a Statue of Liberty two-point conversion by running back Ian Johnson who then proposed a few minutes later to his girlfriend in the middle of his nationally-televised postgame interview.
This will be the second time Baylor will play a bowl game in the Phoenix area in the last four seasons. After winning the 2013 Big 12 championship, the Bears were upset by Central Florida 52-42 in the Fiesta Bowl. "I like Arizona a lot," senior linebacker Aiavion Edwards told the Waco Tribune. "We had a good time the last time we were there, and we're looking forward to finishing the game off better than last time."
LINE HISTORY: Boise State opened this bowl favored by 10-points, but they've since been faded to the current number of -7.5. The total hit the board at 66.5 and has been bet up slightly to 67. Check out the complete line history here.
WEATHER REPORT: If the roof is open at Chase Field, it should be a nice night in Phoenix with clear skies and temperatures in the mid 50's for the game.
INJURY REPORT:
Boise State - S D. Sumner-Gardner (doubtful Tuesday, shoulder).
Baylor - RB T. Williams (probable Tuesday, knee), S D. Hall (questionable Tuesday, concussion), WR P. Stricklin (questionable Tuesday, leg), DE X. Jones (questionable Tuesday, ankle), RB S. Linwood (out Tuesday, personal).
ABOUT BOISE STATE (10-2, 3-9 ATS, 5-7 O/U): After losing to Air Force for the third consecutive year and failing to make it into the conference championship for the second straight season, the Broncos are looking at a potential bowl win over a Big 12 team as something to build on. "We're trying to finish this season the right way and take everything we've learned and apply it," coach Bryan Harsin told reporters. "And go out there and be a much better football team than we were in the last game." Junior running back Jeremy McNichols (1,663 yards and 23 touchdowns rushing), sophomore quarterback Brett Rypien (3,341 yards, 23 TDs passing), and wide receivers Thomas Sperbeck (72 catches, 1,193 yards, nine touchdowns) along with Cedrick Wilson (50, 1,041, 10) lead an offense that averaged 35.6 points and 479.8 yards per game.
ABOUT BAYLOR (6-6, 3-9 ATS, 4-8 O/U): The Bears have the fifth-ranked offense nationally, averaging 523.3 yards - including 250.3 yards rushing. However, most of that was accomplished with Seth Russell (152-of-278, 2,126 yards, 20 TD passes) at quarterback and the senior won't play after breaking his left ankle in a 45-24 loss at Oklahoma on Nov. 12. Freshman Zach Smith started the final three games at quarterback and threw eight touchdown passes compared to six interceptions over that span so look for the Bears to lean heavily on a running game led by sophomore Terence Williams (945 yards, 11 TDs, 5.9 per carry) and senior Shock Linwood (751, two, 5.4).
TRENDS:
* Boise State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Baylor is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Boise State's last five bowl games.
* Over is 4-1 in Baylor's last five games overall.
CONSENSUS: The public is backing Boise State with 56 percent of the wagers, while 63 percent of the betting public is on the Over.
Could you please post football newsletters again. They are a great help with the info they provide. Thanks.
Here is last weeks Newsletters, I'll start a new thread as soon as I see new ones.
http://forum.thespread.com/football-discussion/98617-football-newsletters-week-17
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Washington State (-8.5, 61) vs. Minnesota
This is the Holiday Bowl in San Diego, California. My power ratings only make Washington State -7, but the line went higher last week after Minnesota players planned a boycott, leaving doubt on their motivation and focus for this game.
Washington State has a potent offense and a mediocre defense. The Cougars throw the ball a lot (75% of their total offensive yards) and they average 371 passing yards per game while averaging 40.3 points per game on 6.3 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 31.2 ppg and 5.8 yppl). Washington State’s defense gives up 27.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season, but they faced a tough schedule of opponents that averaged 33.1 ppg and 6.2 yppl.
Minnesota missed practice time due to their planned boycott, so who knows how this team will play in this game. The Gophers’ strength this season was their defense. Minnesota only gave up just 22.9 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 26.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play. However, they did not face a pass happy style like Washington State’s offense in the Big 10, so Minnesota could be in for a long game, especially if they show no interest in playing. The Gophers suspended 10 players for this game. Two starters and two key reserves are among those suspended, and all four are defensive backs. This means the Minnesota secondary will be short-handed against Washington State's explosive passing attack tonight.