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College Football Betting News and Notes for Wednesday, December 28th, 2016

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College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, December 28th, 2016

 
Posted : December 26, 2016 12:08 pm
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Pinstripe Bowl - Northwestern - Pitt

Pitt won its last three games, scoring 175 points; they beat Syracuse 76-61 in last game- they ran ball for 617 yards in last two games. Panthers have senior QB (Peterman); they’re 2-3 as a favorite this year, 4-4 in games with single digit spread. Cold weather game; underdogs covered this bowl the last five years, winning four of five SU. Last two Pinstripe Bowls went extra innin— OT (hehe). Northwestern went 2-3 in its last five games; they’re 6-6, 3-2 as an underdog this year, 3-4 in games with single digit pointspread. Wildcats are 2-10 all-time in bowls, 1-4 in last five (3-2 vs spread). Pitt lost four of last five bowls, giving up 79 points in last two (0-2 SU as bowl favorite last five years). ACC favorites are 3-10-1 vs spread in their last 14 games against Big 14 opponents.

Russell Athletic Bowl - West Virginia - Miami

Miami lost its last five bowl games, scoring 15 pts/game; they were favored in three of the five games, but new coach/Miami alum Mark Richt was 9-5 as a bowl coach at Georgia; he won/covered three of last four bowls. Miami went 4W-4L-4W this year, covering last four games; they’re 7-3 as a favorite, 4-4 in games with single digit spread. West Virginia split its last four bowls, scoring 70-43 points in their wins. Mountaineers are 10-2, losing to Oklahoma schools; they’re 1-1 as underdogs, 4-4 in games with single digit spreads. ACC team won this bowl four of last five years; underdog won it last two years. Miami lost 36-9 to Louisville in this game three years ago. ACC non-conference favorites are 18-9-1 vs spread; Big X underdogs are 2-4. Under is 6-3 in last nine Miami games, 5-2-1 in last eight West Virginia games.

Foster Farms Bowl - Indiana - Utah

Utah coach Whittingham is 8-1 in bowl games, with only loss as a 16-point dog to Boise State in ’10 Las Vegas Bowl. Utes lost three of last four games after a 7-1 start; they’re 4-3 as a favorite this year, 5-3 in games with single digit spread. Indiana fired coach Wilson because he was harsh; Hoosiers are in consecutive bowls for first time since 1990-91, but the coach got fired for being harsh. Wow. Indiana lost its last three bowls, allowing 46 pts/game; their last bowl win was in ’91. Hoosiers are 3-3 as an underdog, 2-4 in games with a single digit spread. Pac-12 teams won this bowl three of last four years; favorites covered this bowl four of last five years. Under is 6-3 in last nine Indiana games, 4-6 in Utah’s last ten. Pac-12 non-conference favorites are 7-9 vs spread this year; Big 14 underdogs are 3-4.

AdvoCare Texas Bowl - Texas A&M - Kansas State

Texas A&M lost four of last six games after a 6-0 start; Aggies are 0-7-1 vs spread in last eight games, 2-5-1 as a favorite, 3-1-1 in games with single digit spread. Kansas State won its last three games, allowing 15.3 pts/game; Wildcats are 4-1 as underdogs this year, 4-2 in games with single digit spread. Aggies won four of last five bowls, losing to Louisville LY; K-State lost four of last five bowls, with favorites covering all five games. Wildcats lost 40-35/45-23 in last two bowls. Favorites are 3-2 vs spread in this bowl last five years; SEC teams won 31-7/56-27 over Big X teams in this bowl last two years. SEC non-conference favorites are 10-18 vs spread; Big X underdogs are 2-4. Four of last five K-State games went over total; four of last six A&M games stayed under.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : December 26, 2016 12:10 pm
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Wednesday's Early Bowl Tips
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern

Pittsburgh (8-4 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) of the Atlantic Coast Conference will battle Northwestern (6-6 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) will meet for the first time ever in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Both teams stumbled out of the box, but were able to finish up on high notes to get into the postseason. As of Monday morning, the Panthers were favored by 5 1/2 points with a total hovering around 65 points.

The Panthers scuffled early in the season, opening with an underwhelming 28-7 win over FCS Villanova, before picking up a shootout win against Penn State, 42-39, back on Sept. 10. However, the Panthers then hit the road and dropped back-to-back games at Oklahoma State and North Carolina, failing to cover three of their first four outings. In fact, Pitt started out 1-5 ATS in their first six games before rattling off four covers in five tries between Oct. 15 and Nov. 19. That included a 43-42 win at Clemson as 21 1/2-point underdogs.

The Pittsburgh offense really hit its stride down the stretch, spurred on by that upset win in Death Valley. The Panthers were impressive for most of the season on offense, posting 36 or more points in 10 of their final 11 games, and at least 28 points in all 12 outings overall. However, the final three games was truly amazing, as they combined for 175 points, or 58.3 PPG, against Clemson, Duke and Syracuse. Needless to say, the 'over' hit in all three of those games, and each of the past 11 for Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh ranked 11th in the country in points scored, posting 42.3 PPG. The return of RB James Conner, who had a storybook season after being diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma last December, was a huge reason for their success. He rolled up 1,060 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns while piling up 5.1 yards per scamper. Conner is also a threat in the passing game, as he was third on the team in receiving yardage with 299 yards and four touchdowns on 20 receptions. Overall the Panthers were 26th in the country with 229.8 yards per game. RB Quadree Henderson is a solid sub when Conner needs a breather, posting 555 yards on 54 carries, or 10.3 yards per carry. He also found the end zone five times.

Pittsburgh's Nathan Peterman passed for 2,602 yards with 26 touchdowns and just six interceptions while completing 59.7 percent of his pass attempts. He also showed he needs to be accounted for in the run game, posting 291 yards with two scores and 4.2 yards per tote. Peterman's favorite target was WR Jester Weah, who went for 23.4 yards per catch. He led the team with 34 grabs, 795 yards and nine touchdowns. WR Scott Ondroff was a solid secondary option with 558 yards and five touchdowns, going for 16.9 yards per grab.

The Panthers have two wide receivers listed on the injury report, as Zach Challingsworth (shoulder) and Tre Tipton (upper body) are listed as questionable. Challingsworth is a special teams player and did not have a catch, while Tipton posted 142 yards on 12 receptions and a touchdown in limited action.

Defensively, the Panthers struggled all season, especially against the pass. In fact, only one team ranked worst against the pass in FBS, as Pitt allowed 343.1 yards per game to finish 127th out of 128 teams. Teams had to pass against Pittsburgh, as the Panthers were a solid ninth overall against the rush with only 108.9 yards allowed. As far as points were concerned, the Panthers were 108th in the nation with 35.6 points per game allowed.

Like the Panthers, Northwestern didn't exactly fire out of the chute. They were 1-3 SU/ATS in their first four games, losing to bowl teams Western Michigan and Nebraska, as well as a 9-7 setback to FCS Illinois State back on Sept. 10. The 'under' was 4-0 in their first four games, and the offense was a disaster with just 16.5 PPG in what was considered the 'easier' part of their schedule. The Wildcats were able to turn things around, however, hitting 38 or more points in four of their final eight games, improving to 91st in the nation with 25.6 PPG. However, in their final eight games they managed 30.0 PPG, and would have been even better if not for a seven-point total against Wisconsin Nov. 5.

The Wildcats ranked 52nd in the country in passing, rolling up 247.7 yards per game. QB Clayton Thorson completed 257 of his 442 pass attempts (58.1 percent) for 2,968 yards, 21 touchdowns and eight interceptions while also rushing for five touchdowns. Thorson should be able to pile up plenty of yardage against an awful Pittsburgh pass defense. WR Austin Carr was Thorson's go-to guy with 84 receptions, 1,196 yards and 12 touchdowns on 14.2 yards per reception. WRs Flynn Nagel and Andrew Scanlan were decent secondary and tertiary options, both averaging over 11 yards per catch. But they combined for just two touchdowns. Slot-back Garrett Dickerson managed 272 yards and four touchdowns on 29 receptions.

In the run game, the Wildcats have a star in RB Justin Jackson. He posted 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns on 266 rushes, posting 4.9 yards per attempt. Six of those 12 touchdowns came in the final three games, as he finished up strong. That included 173 yards and three scores in a 42-21 win over rival Illinois in the season finale. RB John Moten IV was a solid change of pace back, averaging 6.1 yards per rush with 329 total yards and two touchdowns.

As a single-digit favorite, Pitt was 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS this season, while Northwestern was 1-3 SU/ATS as a pick 'em or single-digit underdog this season.

The Panthers won six of their final eight games overall, and covered four of their final six outings. They're 6-1 ATS in their past seven games in the month of December, but just 1-4 ATS in their past five neutral-site games, 1-4 ATS in their past five bowl games and 0-6 ATS in their past six non-conference tilts.

The Wildcats have five straight covers against ACC teams, including earlier in the season when they knocked off Duke by a 24-13 score as four-point favorites. The Wildcats covered six of their final eight games, but they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven against teams with an overall winning record and 1-4 ATS in their past five games against non-conference teams.

The 'over' is 4-0 in Pitt's past four bowl games, 4-0 in their past four neutral-site games and 22-8-1 in their past 31 games overall, including each of their past 11 outings.

The 'under' is 11-5 in Northwestern's past 16 overall, 25-10 in their past 35 against teams with an overall winning record and 20-7 in their past 27 out of conference. The 'under' is also 4-1 in their past five against ACC foes, including that game against Duke earlier in the season.

West Virginia vs. Miami-Florida

The Russell Athletic Bowl takes place at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla., as former Big East members West Virginia (10-2 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) and Miami-Florida (8-4 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) meet. The bowl has been a home away from home for Miami, as it is their third trip to the Russell Athletic Bowl (formerly Champs Bowl) in the past eight seasons. Miami is 0-2 SU in the game, falling 20-14 to Wisconsin Dec. 29, 2009, and 36-9 to Louisville Dec. 28, 2013.

It was a tale of three seasons for the Hurricanes. They opened the season 4-0 SU/ATS, went on a four-game losing streak while going 0-4 ATS, then finished up 4-0 SU/ATS in their final four regular season games, including wins over bowl teams North Carolina State and Pittsburgh. Overall the Hurricanes were 2-3 SU/ATS against bowl teams this season.

Miami ranked 27th in the country in passing yardage, posting 273.5 yards per game while averaging 34.6 PPG to rank 36th in the country. They were in the upper echelon of college football with 431.2 yards per game to rank 53rd overall. Defensively the Canes were 27th in the country by allowing 353.8 yards per game, including just 18.9 points per outing, ranking 14th in the country.

QB Brad Kaaya completed 61.2 percent of his pass attempts to finish with 3,250 yards, 23 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. He is not a dual-threat option, and actually had minus-133 rushing yards with one touchdown. Kaaya's favorite target is WR Ahmmon Richards, who tallied 866 yards and two touchdowns on 46 receptions, good for 18.8 yards per reception. WR Stacy Coley was also sharp, posting 703 yards with nine touchdowns on a team-high 58 receptions. TE David Njoku was one of the most productive tight ends in the nation, posting 654 yards with seven touchdowns on 38 catches.

The run game is strong for Miami, and they have good depth, too. RB Mark Walton led the charge with 1,065 yards and 14 touchdowns, while RB Joseph Yearby was outstanding with 592 yards and seven touchdowns, posting a team-best 6.0 yards per attempt. RB Gus Edwards managed 5.5 yards per attempt, and is capable when his number is called upon.

West Virginia ranked 12th in the country in total yardage with 506.9 yards per game, and they were strong both in the run game and pass game. Head coach Dana Holgorsen's bunch was very balanced, posting 267.4 yards per game in the air and 239.5 yards per game on the ground, both ranking in the Top 30 in the nation. They bogged down in the red zone on occasion, however, and managed just 32.6 points per game which ranked 46th in the country.

If West Virginia is to compete in this game and pick up their 11th victory of the season, they will need to be much better against the pass. They allowed 255.7 yards per game through the air to rank 101st in FBS. They allowed 431.2 totals yards per game, 79th in the country, and 175.5 yards per game on the ground to rank 66th. The Mountaineers had a bend-but-don't-break defense, as they allowed just 23.4 yards per game to rank 35th overall in scoring defense.

The offense starts and stops with QB Skyler Howard, who tossed 26 touchdowns while getting picked off 10 times in 230 attempts. He finished with 3,194 pasing yards while completing 60.8 percent of his attempts, and he also added 400 rushing yards with nine touchdowns to give Miami a dual-threat option to worry about. Howard has several dangerous options in the pass game, including WR Shelton Gibson. No. 1 led the team with 927 yards and eight touchdowns, good for 23.2 yards per catch. He was blanked in the regular season finale against Baylor, but is just two games removed from a three-catch, 163-yard, two-touchdown performance at Iowa State. WR Daikiel Shorts Jr. posted 833 yards on a team-high 58 grabs with five scores, and WR Ka'Raun White also found the end zone five times.

On the ground, the Mountaineers are dangerous with a three-headed monster in the backfield in addition to Howard's solid running ability. RB Justin Crawford was the best of the lot, posting 1,164 yards with four touchdowns on 7.4 yards per run. They do not lose much when Crawford needs a rest, as RB Rushel Shell is a hammer. He posted 514 yards with five scores to lead all running backs, and RB Kennedy McKoy posted 466 yards with three scores on 6.5 yards per attempt.

West Virginia won four of their final five games, but they were 2-3 ATS during the stretch, and 4-7 ATS in their final 11 regular season games. They enter as short 'dogs in this game, and they lost their only game as an underdog Nov. 19 at home against Oklahoma. The Mountaineers fell 56-28 in that game at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown as 3 1/2-point underdogs. They are 2 1/2-point underdogs to Miami as of Monday afternoon.

Miami was 8-2 SU/ATS as a favorite this season. They're 6-1 ATS in their past seven following a cover, and 4-0 ATS in their past four. However, they have failed to cover in their past five bowl games while going 0-6 ATS in their past six neutral-site affairs.

It used to be 'All about the U' in the 1980's and 1990's, but the Hurricanes have fallen on hard times in the postseason. They have dropped six straight bowl games since winning the MPC Computers Bowl Dec. 31, 2006. They have lost the past six bowl games by an average of 13.0 points per contest.

West Virginia hasn't been much better in bowl games recently, going just 2-4 SU in the past six tries, including a loss in the 2010 Champs Sports Bowl in this same stadium against N.C. State. Under Holgorsen the Mountaineers are 2-2 SU in four bowl games, winning a shootout with Arizona State in last season's Cactus Bowl. In four games under Holgorsen the Mountaineers have averaged 38.5 PPG while allowing 39.5 PPG.

For what it's worth, West Virginia has covered seven straight games played on a Wednesday. However, they're just 3-10 ATS in their past 10 against teams with a winning record, 6-14 ATS in their past 20 against the ACC and 1-6 ATS in their past seven bowl games. They're 1-6 ATS in their past seven neutral-site games and 0-4 ATS in the past four played in the month of December.

These former Big East foes haven't met since Oct. 2, 2003, when Miami edged West Virginia 22-20 in the old Orange Bowl in downtown Miami. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series, but again, the last meeting was 2003.

The 'over' is 4-0 in West Virginia's past four neutral-site games, and 8-3 in their past 11 bowl games. However, the 'under' is 6-1 in their past seven against teams with a winning overall record, and 24-10 in their past 34 games overall. The 'under' is also 22-5 in their past 27 games on a fieldturf surface.

For Miami, the 'under' is 4-0 in their past four neutral-site battles, and 6-1 in their past seven bowl games. The under is also 42-19 in their past 61 non-conference tilts, while the 'over' is 5-1 in their past six against Big 12 opponents.

 
Posted : December 26, 2016 10:34 pm
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Northwestern faces Pittsburgh in Pinstripe Bowl
By: StatFox.com

Northwestern will be trying to win its first bowl game since 2012 when the team faces #22 Pittsburgh on Wednesday.

Northwestern hasn’t necessarily been a bowl game mainstay over the years, as last year’s Outback Bowl appearance was the team’s first bowl game since 2012. The Wildcats were embarrassed in last year’s game, losing 45-6 against Tennessee, and they’ll be hoping for a different result this time around. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, will be playing in a bowl game for a ninth consecutive season. The Panthers are just 3-5 SU in those eight games since 2008, though. They’ll look to flip the script with a win over a mediocre Northwestern team in this one. One interesting trend when looking at this game is the fact that the Wildcats are 17-6 ATS in road games after gaining 125 or fewer passing yards since 1992. They’re also 16-6 ATS in road games after a game where they forced four or more turnovers since 1992. For those interested in the total, Pittsburgh is 11-1 Over in all lined games this season. The Panthers are also 7-0 Over when coming off of a conference matchup on the season.

Northwestern is going up against an explosive offense, and the Wildcats are going to need to be ready to score a ton of points in order to come away with a win. Fortunately for the team, they do have some serious weapons of their own. In the passing game, QB Clayton Thorson (2,968 yards, 21 TD, 8 INT) will look to make some big plays for Northwestern. Thorson has had five games with three touchdowns this season, and it’ll likely take at least that on Wednesday. He’d be wise to target WR Austin Carr (84 rec, 1,196 yards, 12 TD) as often as possible. Carr is one of the best receivers in the nation, and he had three games with two or more touchdowns this season. He also racked up 100 or more receiving yards on six different occasions. He should have no trouble having a big game against Pittsburgh either. This Panthers team allows a ton of big plays, and it has had trouble with opposing number one wideouts as well. When the Wildcats go to the ground, it’ll be RB Justin Jackson (1,300 yards, 12 TD) who will be having his number called a ton. Jackson rushed for six touchdowns over the final three games of the regular season. He has had an incredible career for Northwestern thus far, rushing for over 1,000 yards in each of his three seasons. Look for Jackson to have a productive afternoon on Wednesday.

The Panthers have had one of the best offenses in football this season, and that is why LSU hired offensive coordinator Matt Canada away from Pittsburgh. The engine that makes this team go is, however, RB James Conner (1,060 yards, 16 TD). Conner was the story of the season, as he returned from both a torn knee and a battle with cancer to get back onto the field this season. He also showed little signs of rust, as he had his second 1,000-yard season in three years. Look for him to have a big performance in his final college game. The same goes for QB Nathan Peterman (2,602 yards, 26 TD, 6 INT), who had a remarkable senior year for the Panthers. He is coming into this game after a huge finish to the year, throwing for 12 touchdowns and just two picks over the last three weeks of the season. In what should be a high-scoring game, it’s likely he’ll throw a ton. He can, however, also use his legs. He rushed for 79 yards in the win over Syracuse in the final week of the regular season, and he is not afraid to take off when he gets in trouble or sees a lane.

 
Posted : December 26, 2016 10:42 pm
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Kansas State faces Texas A&M in Texas Bowl
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com

Myles Garrett could be the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, and Wednesday is likely your last chance to see him play in college.

The Kansas State Wildcats enter the 2016 Texas Bowl on something of a hot streak, having won three straight games and five of their last six—all against Big 12 opponents—to finish their regular season 8-4 overall and 5-7 against the spread. They finished 6-3 in Big 12 play, good for fourth in the conference standings. They opened the year with a 26-13 loss at then-No. 8 Stanford, and then got blowout wins over cupcakes Florida Atlantic and Southwest Missouri State. Their three conference losses came to West Virginia, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, with the Oklahoma game being the only of the three that didn’t come down to the wire. It’s hard to point at a “signature win” for this Wildcats team, although victories over Texas, Baylor and TCU in the second half of the season all came as underdogs. The Texas Bowl presents an opportunity for such a win, as KSU takes on a Texas A&M team that sat as high as #4 in national polls this season. The Aggies, however, have struggled in the season’s back half, going 2-4 to follow a 6-0 start to finish 8-4 and 4-8 against the spread. Especially indicative of their ability to live up to expectations is the fact that they lost their last eight games of the season ATS. Over the last five seasons, teams averaging at least 4.8 yards per rush that have outrushed their opponent by at least 125 yards in three straight games (KSU) are 33-12 Over the total against teams allowing 3.5 to 4.3 yards per rush. Head coach Kevin Sumlin’s A&M teams are 9-25 ATS when coming off of a loss against the spread. Kansas State LB Charmeachealle Moore is questionable for the bowl game, as is RB Alex Barnes. QB Trevor Knight is probable for the Aggies, while WR Speedy Noil is considered doubtful to play.

In his first season as a starter, junior QB Jesse Ertz (56.6 CMP%, 1,560 yards, 8 TDs, 4 INTs; 159 carries, 945 yards, 10 TDs) has established himself as the best running quarterback in the Big 12, and one of the best in the country, as well. He is seventh among all Big 12 players in rushing yards (first among quarterbacks), and fifth nationally in rushing yards among quarterbacks. His passing numbers weren’t so impressive, as he finished ninth in the conference in passing yards, 10th in passer rating (117.8 ) and 10th in yards per attempt (6.4). His running abilities were especially on display towards the end of the year, as all three of his 100-yard rushing games this season came in the Wildcats’ final five contests. (He had a 99-yard rushing game during that stretch.) Kansas State ran the ball almost twice as often as they did throw the ball, and that shows in their receivers’ statistics. Their leading receiver, WR Byron Pringle (36 catches, 524 yards, 3 TDs), was 19th in the Big 12 in receiving yards. For an in-conference (and admittedly extreme) comparison, Texas Tech has four receivers with more yards than Pringle. WRs Dominique Heath (41 catches, 413 yards, 3 TDs) and Deante Burton (26 catches, 379 yards, TD) are the team’s next-leading wideouts. Ertz leads the team in rushing, and next after him is senior RB Charles Jones (110 carries, 577 yards, 2 TDs). Jones has not been the team’s lead back in a while, though. Barnes (56 carries, 442 yards, 6 TDs), a freshman, had back-to-back 100-yard games before sitting out the regular season finale against TCU. Sophomore RB Justin Silmon (76 carries, 387 yards, 3 TDs) had 133 yards on 22 carries in that game. On defense, the Wildcats allowed a Big 12-best 382 yards allowed per game. DE Jordan Willis was named Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, CB D.J. Reed was named Defensive Newcomer of the Year and DE Reggie Walker was honored as the Defensive Freshman of the Year. LB Elijah Lee joined Willis and Reed as First Team All-Big 12 honorees.

It’s hard to remember now, but Texas A&M QB Trevor Knight (51.9 CMP%, 2,122 yards, 16 TDs, 6 INTs; 94 carries, 594 yards, 10 TDs) had his name thrown around in top-five Heisman candidate discussions in the early part of the season. While he was never particularly impressive statistically, he was the engine driving an undefeated Aggies team. After sitting out two-plus games with a shoulder injury, he returned for the regular season finale against LSU to complete 14 of 30 passes for 211 yards and three touchdowns. It was one of three games this season in which he failed to complete 50% of his passes, and he only had one game where he completed 60% of his passes. For perspective, seven SEC starting quarterbacks completed at least 60% of their passes for the season at large. Knight was fourth among SEC QBs in rushing yards, and he had at least 45 fewer rushers than every quarterback ranked ahead of him. He had a deep and talented group of wide receivers who all came in as highly-touted recruits and have produced to varying degrees. WR Josh Reynolds (49 catches, 885 yards, 10 TDs) was fourth in the SEC in yards per catch, and he had more catches than everyone ahead of him. Meanwhile, WR Christian Kirk (77 catches, 842 yards, 9 TDs) led the conference in receptions, and he had 107 yards and two touchdowns against LSU. Noil (21 catches, 325 yards, 2 TDs) was third on the team in receiving yards, and WR Ricky Seals-Jones (20 catches, 299 yards) could end up being the least productive receivers to declare early for the NFL Draft. Freshman RB Trayveon Williams (147 carries, 1,024 yards, 8 TDs) defied pretty lofty expectations in ranking among the SEC’s top ten rushers and averaging 7.0 yards per carry. Defensively, the Aggies rank 91st in the nation with 444 yards allowed per game but a much higher 37th in allowing 23.8 points per game. DE Myles Garrett was voted First Team All-SEC, his third consecutive selection to an All-SEC team. S Justin Evans was named to the Second Team.

 
Posted : December 27, 2016 4:03 pm
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Wednesday's Late Bowl Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Indiana vs. Utah

The Foster Farms Bowl from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, will feature a showdown between the Big Ten and the Pac-12, as Indiana is poised to take on Utah. As of early Tuesday night, most betting shops had the Utes installed as six-point favorites with a total of 54.5. The Hoosiers were available on the money line for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200).

Utah (8-4 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) owns a 15-4 record in bowl games, including an incredible 9-1 mark during Kyle Whittingham’s 12-year tenure. “The biggest factor in our bowl success is the way our players approach the game and the work they put it,” Whittingham told the Salt Lake City Tribune. “Our guys are excited to head to California which is right in our recruiting footprint.”

Utah lost its four games by 19 combined points, dropping three of its last four after a 7-1 start. The Utes fell vs. Washington (31-24), vs. Oregon (30-28) and at Colorado (27-22) down the stretch and also went down 28-23 at California on Oct. 1. They posted quality wins vs. BYU (20-19), vs. USC (31-27), at UCLA (52-45) and at Arizona State (49-26).

Although Utah lost outright in three of its last four regular-season contests, it finished the year on a 4-1 ATS roll. I was on the Utes when they took the cash as 10.5-point underdogs at CU on Nov. 26. They drew first blood in Boulder on a 55-yard punt return for a touchdown in the first quarter. After trailing 13-7 at halftime, Utah pulled even thanks to a pair of 22-yard field goals from Andy Phillips in the third quarter. However, the Buffaloes went back in front 20-13 going into the final stanza thanks to a six-yard TD pass from Sefo Liufau to Shay Fields. After another red-zone opportunity resulted in a 23-yard FG from Phillips, Utah got the ball back down 20-16 with a chance to take the lead. But that wouldn’t happen because CU’s Kenneth Olugbode recovered a fumble and raced 10 yard to paydirt and a 27-16 advantage. With 1:34 left, Troy Williams found Demari Simpkins for a seven-yard scoring strike to give Utah backers the cover in backdoor fashion.

Williams, a juco transfer who began his career at Washington, started all 12 games at QB. He completed 53.4 percent of his passes for 2,579 yards with a 15/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Williams also ran for 246 yards and five TDs.

Senior RB Joe Williams briefly left the team in September, claiming he was “retiring.” Not much later, however, Williams returned after several RBs went down with injuries. In his first game back, he ran for 179 yards on 34 carries. Then a week later, Williams erupted for 332 rushing yards and four TDs on 29 attempts. The next four games saw him go for rushing totals of 172, 181, 149 and 97 yards. Williams rushed for 1,185 yards and nine TDs with a 6.4 yards-per-carry average.

Tim Patrick led the Utes with 43 receptions for 684 yards and five TDs, while Raelon Singleton made 26 catches for 454 yards and four TDs.

Utah compiled a 3-3 spread record in six games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’

Indiana (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) is bowling in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1990-91, but it will do so without head coach Kevin Wilson, who was forced to resign on Dec. 1 amid allegations of player mistreatment. IU elevated first-year defensive coordinator Tom Allen into the head spot.

Allen was given the head-coaching gig after orchestrating a remarkable defensive turnaround. The Hoosiers gave up the following points-per-game averages in Wilson’s first five seasons at IU: 37.6, 32.8, 38.8, 35.3 and 37.3. In 2016, IU gave up only 27.3 PPG and finished 41st in the nation in total defense (after finishing 112th in 2015).

The IU defense is led by junior LB Tegray Scales, who led the Big Ten with 116 tackles. Scales also recorded 20.5 tackles for loss, one pick-six, five sacks, four QB hurries, two passes broken up and one forced fumble.

Since 1994, Indiana had only been bowling in 2007 until last season’s trip to the Pinstripe Bowl, where it lost a 44-41 overtime thriller to Duke as a 2.5-point ‘chalk.’ The Hoosiers have lost three straight bowls and haven’t won a postseason game since doing so by a 24-0 count over Baylor at the Copper Bowl.

Indiana won its regular-season finale to clinch a postseason appearance and avoid a three-game losing streak. Devine Redding rushed for 99 yards and one TD on 24 carries to help the Hoosiers to a 26-24 win as 21-point home favorites. They were nearly undone by four interceptions, three of which were thrown by Richard Lagow. Zander Diamont subbed in at various times and rushed for 42 yards and one TD on 13 carries. Ziamont was 0-of-3 throwing with an interception.

Redding became the first Indiana RB to rush for more than 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons since Vaughn Dunbar (1990-91). Redding has rushed for 1,050 yards and six TDs to date this year, averaging 4.4 YPC. He also had 27 catches for 146 yards and two TDs.

Lagow has connected on 59.9 percent of his passes for 3,174 yards with an 18/16 TD-INT ratio. IU had three players catch at least 49 balls, including Nick Westbrook, who had 49 receptions for 915 yards and five TDs. Ricky Jones has 50 catches for 783 yards and three TDs, while Mitchell Paige has 54 grabs for 604 yards and three TDs.

Lagow will face a defense led by Utah senior DE Hunter Dimick, who has 53 tackles, 21 TFL’s, 14.5 sacks, six PBU, one QB hurry, and one forced fumble.

Indiana has been an underdog seven times this year, compiling a 3-3-1 spread record with one outright victory.

Totals have been an overall wash for Utah (6-6), but the ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back games. The Utes have seen their games average combined scores of 54.1 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for IU, but the ‘over’ has hit in three of its last five outings. The Hoosiers have watched their games average combined scores of 53.2 PPG.

Kansas State vs. Texas A&M

Former Big 12 rivals Kansas State and Texas A&M, now a member of the SEC, will renew their rivalry Wednesday night at the Texas Bowl in Houston at NRG Stadium. As of Tuesday night, most spots had Texas A&M (8-4 SU, ATS) listed as a 2.5-point favorite with the total in the 56-57 range. The Wildcats were +120 on the money line (risk $100 to win $120).

Kevin Sumlin’s team started 6-0 and had two weeks to get ready to face unbeaten and top-ranked Alabama on Oct. 22. Texas A&M took a 14-13 lead early in the third quarter, but the Crimson Tide would score 20 unanswered points to 33-14 as an 18-point home favorite. Since then, the Aggies have lost all three of their SEC games while winning a pair of non-conference contests over New Mexico St. and UTSA.

Texas A&M senior QB Trevor Knight missed two games, a loss to Ole Miss and a win vs. UTSA, after injuring his knee in a 35-28 loss at Mississippi St. Knight produced 2,716 yards from scrimmage in his lone season with the Aggies after coming from Oklahoma as a grad transfer. He rushed for 594 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 6.3 YPC. Knight threw for 2,122 yards with a 16/6 TD-INT ratio, but he completed only 51.9 percent of his throws.

True freshman RB Trayveon Williams enjoyed a breakout campaign, rushing for 1,024 yards and eight TDs while averaging 7.0 YPC. Josh Reynolds had 49 catches for 885 yards and 10 TDs, while Christian Kirk had 77 receptions for 842 yards and nine TDs.

Texas A&M gave up a double-digit fourth-quarter lead in its opener at home vs. UCLA. The Aggies would nonetheless survive overtime with the Bruins, who forced the extra session by rallying behind the play of sophomore QB Josh Rosen. A&M won 31-24 thanks to Knight’s one-yard TD run in OT.

Texas A&M posted quality wins at Auburn (29-16), vs. Arkansas (45-24 at Jerry World), at South Carolina (24-13), vs. Tennessee (45-38 in double OT).

Sumlin’s squad led Ole Miss for most of the game only to lose a 29-28 decision on a last-minute field goal on Nov. 12. Knight missed the game against the Rebels but returned for the regular-season finale at home vs. LSU on Thanksgiving Night. The Tigers went into College Station and captured a 54-39 win. Knight threw for 211 yards and three TDs without an interception. Christian Kirk had eight receptions for 107 yards and two TDs, while Speedy Noil had five catches for 102 yards.

John Chavis’s unit is led by junior DE Myles Garrett, who is going to be an early first-round pick in the spring. Garrett missed two games and parts of others with an ankle injury, yet still managed to accumulate 32 tackles, 15 TFL’s, 8.5 sacks, 10 QB hurries, two forced fumbles and one PBU. The Aggies are 90th (of 128 FBS schools) in total defense but rank 37th in scoring (23.8 PPG).

Junior strong safety Armani Watts missed three games, including the last two. The leg injury has him listed as ‘questionable’ vs. Kansas St. In nine games, Watts produced 56 tackles, six TFL’s, two interceptions, one sack, two forced fumbles and three PBU.

Texas A&M WR Speedy Noil is suspended and won’t play vs. Kansas St. Noil had 21 catches for 325 yards and two TDs in 10 games.

Texas A&M owns a 2-2 spread record in four single-digit favorite roles Meanwhile, Kansas St. has compiled a 4-2 spread record with three outright wins (at TCU, at Baylor and vs. Texas) in six games as an underdog.

Kansas State (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) brings a three-game winning streak to Houston and it has won five of its last six. The lone defeat in this stretch was a 43-37 home loss to Oklahoma State. The Wildcats’ other setbacks came at Stanford (26-13), at West Virginia (17-16) and at Oklahoma (38-17).

Kansas State picked up its best wins at TCU (30-6), at Baylor (42-21), vs. Texas (24-21) and vs. Texas Tech (44-38). The blowout win over the Horned Frogs in Ft. Worth came as a four-point underdog. The Wildcats were led by Jesse Ertz, who rushed for 170 yards and one TD on 19 attempts. Ertz also threw for 159 yards and one TD without an interception. Justin Silmon added 133 rushing yards and two TDs on 22 carries, while Bryon Pringle had six catches for 126 yards and one TD.

Ertz has connected on 56.6 percent of his passes for 1,560 yards with an 8/4 TD-INT ratio. He also ran for a team-best 945 yards and 10 TDs with a 5.9 YPC average. Charles Jones (5.2 YPC) has run for 577 yards and two TDs, while Alex Barnes has 442 rushing yards, six TDs and a 7.9 YPC average.

Kansas St. is 12th in the nation against the run, allowing only 113.5 yards per game. The Wildcats are 21st in scoring defense (21.8 PPG).

Since 2004, Bill Snyder’s program has lost seven of its last eight bowl games.

Kansas State has won three head-to-head meetings in a row over A&M, although these schools haven’t met since the Wildcats won in four overtimes in 2011.

The ‘under’ is 7-4-1 overall for the Aggies, who have seen their games average combined scores of 59.2 PPG.

Totals have been an overall wash (6-6), but the ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in the Wildcats’ last five outings. Their games have averaged combined scores of 54.0 PPG.

 
Posted : December 28, 2016 9:15 am
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New Era Pinstripe Bowl Betting Preview: Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern
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Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Northwestern Wildcats (+4.5, 64.5)

After playing in the highest-scoring game in FBS history, No. 23 Pittsburgh will look to light up the scoreboard again when it faces Northwestern in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl played at Yankee Stadium in New York City on Dec. 28. The Panthers averaged 10.9 yards per play in piling up 11 touchdowns in a 76-61 win over Syracuse in the regular-season finale Nov. 26 - the most points scored by a Pitt team since beating Temple 76-0 in 1977. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the mastermind of the offense which enters the contest ranked 10th in the country in scoring (42.3 points per game), will join LSU in the same position right after the bowl game to resurrect a dormant Tigers offense.

The Northwestern defense will provide Pitt a stiff challenge, ranking 23rd in FBS in points allowed (22.1 per game) despite yielding 402 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, Wildcats sophomore quarterback Clayton Thorson (2,968 yards, 21 TDs, 8 INTs) will try to take advantage of a Panthers defense that ranks 127th in passing yards allowed (343.1 per game). His primary target will be former walk-on Austin Carr, a first team All-Conference pick who caught 23 passes his first three seasons but led the Big Ten in receptions (84), yards (1,196) and receiving touchdowns (12) as a senior in 2016.

Pitt, which is playing in its ninth consecutive bowl, finished the season on a three-game winning streak for the first time since 2004 and had the distinction of being the only team to beat two Power-5 conference champions (42-39 over Penn State of the Big Ten; 43-42 over Clemson of the ACC). The Wildcats became bowl-eligible for the seventh time in the last nine seasons with a 42-21 triumph over Illinois on Nov. 26 behind 173 yards rushing and three touchdowns by Justin Jackson. The junior (Big Ten-leading 1,300 yards, 12 TDs) won’t be the only elite running back in the game, as Pitt’s James Conner ran for 1,060 yards and scored 20 touchdowns after sitting out all but one game in 2015 with a torn ACL and a bout of lymphoma.

LINE HISTORY: Pittsburgh opened this ACC-Big Ten showdown as 4-point favorites and were bet as high as -5.5, before settling back down at the current number of -4.5. The total hit the board at 66.5 and has been bet down 2-points to the current number of 64.5. Check out the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: It will be a clear and cool day at Yankee Stadium, with temperatures in the low 40's for the bowl game. Winds will be gusting from approximately 15-20 miles per hour across the field out of the northwest.

INJURY REPORT:

Pittsburgh - DB P. Motley (probable Wednesday, knee), DB A. Maddox (probable Wednesday, undisclosed), WR Z. Challingsworth (questionable Wednesday, shoulder), WR T. Tripton (questionable Wednesday, upper body), DB J. Whitehead (questionable Wednesday, arm), DL A. Watts (questionable Wednesday, undisclosed), RB C. Moss (questionable Wednesday, undisclosed), DL T. Jarrett (questionable Wednesday, leg).

Northwestern - RB W. Long (questionable Wednesday, hand).

ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (6-6, 7-5 ATS, 4-8 O/U): Jackson, a first team All-Big Ten running back, posted his third consecutive 1,000-yard campaign and has 3,905 career yards rushing, 27 rushing TDs and a 4.7 per carry average. Thorson, who had seven TD passes and nine interceptions as a full-time starter his freshman season, was completing just 53 percent of his passes with five TDs and four picks during the Wildcats’ 1-3 start in 2016, but the sophomore finished by completing 60 percent of his tosses with 18 TDs against just four interceptions in the final eight games. On the defensive side of the ball, first team all-conference defensive end Ifeadi Odenigbo tied for the league lead with 10 sacks while junior linebacker Anthony Walker, Jr. had 98 tackles but is averaging 9.4 tackles per game over his last eight.

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (8-4, 5-7 ATS, 11-1 O/U): Conner (ACC all-time leader with 56 touchdowns), a first-team all-conference performer, was given the Brian Piccolo Award for the “most courageous” football player in the ACC. Senior quarterback Nathan Peterman (59.7 percent completions, 2,602 yards, 26 TDs, 6 INT) threw 12 touchdowns against two interceptions in season-ending victories over Clemson, Duke and Syracuse and completed the season with a passer rating of 161.2 - tops in the ACC and ninth nationally. The Panthers pass defense is suspect, but one standout has been first-team all-conference defensive end Ejaun Price, who ranks second nationally in tackles for loss (1.8 per game) and fifth in sacks (1.0) with half of his 42 tackles this season being behind the line of scrimmage.

TRENDS:

* Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.
* Northwestern is 5-0 ATS in its last five versus ACC opponents.
* Over is 11-0 in Pittsburgh's last 11 games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Northwestern's last four games following an ATS win.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are backing the Panthers in this battle of cats, with 64 percent of wagers on Pittsburgh to cover. As for the total, 54 percent of wagers are on the Over.

Russell Athletic Bowl Betting Preview: West Virginia vs. Miami
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West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Miami Hurricanes (-2.5, 57.5)

West Virginia attempts to clinch its first 11-win season since 2007 and Miami (Fla.) tries to finish its first season under Mark Richt with a five-game winning streak when the former Big East foes meet in the Russell Athletic Bowl on Dec. 28 in Orlando, Fla. The No. 12 Mountaineers rebounded from their mistake-filled 56-28 loss to Oklahoma with victories against Iowa State and Baylor to finish an impressive 7-2 in the Big 12. The Hurricanes recovered from a mid-season four-game losing streak that included a pair of agonizing losses to Florida State and Notre Dame by outscoring their final four ACC foes 152-76 to save a season that appeared to be slipping away.

Bowl games are often decided by which team is more motivated, but in this case both squads should be excited to get on the field at Camping World Stadium. Miami hasn't won a bowl game in a decade and is looking to build momentum for the future as it attempts to regain its past glory under Richt, a former Hurricanes quarterback. The Mountaineers' outstanding regular season has already resulted in coach Dana Holgorsen being given a five-year contract extension, and they have the opportunity to possibly finish ranked in the top 10 while avoiding finishing the season on a sour note.

Perhaps the most interesting battle will be between West Virginia's physical offensive line, anchored by All-American center Tyler Orlosky, and Miami's freshman-led front seven that keyed a defense that allowed only 18.9 points per game. The offensive talents mirror one another with Miami junior quarterback Brad Kaaya, who could be headed to the NFL after this game, and West Virginia senior Skyler Howard having similar numbers while both teams have a 1,000-yard rusher in Miami's Mark Walton and West Virginia's Justin Crawford. If it comes down to the kicking game, Miami appears to have an edge with Michael Badgley (10-of-11 on field goals of 40 or more yards) and Justin Vogel (44.2 yards on 57 punts, 23 punts inside the 20 and one touchback) having performed better than Mike Molina (2-of-5 from 40 yards or more) and Billy Kinney (41.4 yards on 51 punts, 14 inside the 20, five touchbacks).

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened Miami as field goal faves for this bowl game, but they have since been bet down a half-point to the current number of Miami -2.5. The opened at 56 and has been bet up to to 57.5, where it currently sits. Check out the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful evening for football in Orlando, with clear skies and temperaturs in the mid 70's being called for in the forecast.

INJURY REPORT:

West Virginia - DL X. Pegues (questionable Wednesday, shoulder), CB A. Crawfor (questionable Wednesday, undisclosed), S K. White (questionable Wednesday, hand).

Miami - DB - A Colbert (probable Wednesday, forearm), QB T. Beirne (questionable Wednesday, personal), DL S. Patchan (questionable Wednesday, knee).

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (10-2, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U): The Mountaineers rank No. 12 in FBS in total offense (506.9 yards per game) with a balanced attack behind Howard (3,194 yards passing, 60.8 percent, 26 touchdown passes) and a backfield led by Crawford (1,168 yards, 7.4 yards per carry, four TDs) that had four different players rush for more than 100 yards in a game. Howard, who is also a running threat, has a trio of dangerous receivers in Daikiel Shorts Jr. (58 receptions, 833 yards), Ka'Raun White (48, 583) and game-breaking Shelton Gibson (40, 927, 23.2 yards per reception). All-American senior cornerback Rasul Douglas, who had eight of the team's 14 interceptions, is the leader of a unit that ranked No. 3 in total defense (but only No. 79 in FBS) in the offensive-minded Big 12 (431.2 yards per game).

ABOUT MIAMI (8-4, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 O/U): Kaaya (3,250 yards, 61.2 percent, 23 touchdowns) played his best at the end of the season when he benefited from improved protection from his line, the emergence of explosive freshman wide receiver Ahmmon Richards (46 receptions, 866 yards, 18.8 yards per reception) and the improved play of tight end David Njoku (38, 654, 17.2), who caught seven TD passes. The offensive line's re-emergence after being dominated during the losing streak also helped Walton (1,065 yards, 5.5 yards per carry, 14 TDs) and Joe Yearby (592, 6.0) provide balance in the final four wins. With four freshmen in their front seven, including end Joe Jackson (7.5 sacks) and linebacker Shaq Quarterman (nine tackles for loss), and a secondary led by senior cornerback Corn Elder, Miami's defense held nine foes to 21 points or fewer.

TRENDS:

* West Virginia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven bowl games.
* Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in West Virginia's laast four neutral site games.
* Under is 6-1 in Miami's last seven bowl games.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the underdog in this bowl game, with 59 percent of wagers on West Virginia to cover. Bettors also like the Over in this matchup, with 65 percent of wagers on it.

Foster Farms Bowl Betting Preview: Indiana vs. Utah
Covers.com

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Utah Utes (-6, 54.5)

Indiana looks to overcome the loss of Kevin Wilson when it takes on No. 19 Utah in Santa Clara, CA on Dec. 28. Wilson led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl seasons for the first time since 1990-91, but resigned abruptly on Dec. 1 amid allegations of player mistreatment, and Indiana's top brass wasted no time in promoting first-year defensive coordinator Tom Allen to head coach. Utah limps into the postseason having dropped three of its last four games after a promising start, which included wins over archival BYU and No. 9 USC, and the Utes hope to put the disappointment of losing four contests by a combined 19 points behind them in their first bowl matchup against a Big Ten team since 1996.

The Utes have compiled an impressive 15-4 record in bowl games, including a 9-1 mark under Kyle Whittingham, which is the best winning percentage (90) among coaches in NCAA history. Utah has fared well against Big Ten opponents, winning five of the last six meetings since 2001, including two victories over Indiana during that span, and hopes the trend continues as it searches for its fourth consecutive postseason victory. "The biggest factor in our bowl success is the way our players approach the game and the work they put in," Whittingham told reporters. "Our guys are excited to head to California which is right in our recruiting footprint."

Allen - who was nominated for the Broyles Award, which is given to the nation's top assistant - has engineered a remarkable turnaround on the defensive side of the ball as the Hoosiers improved from 112th to 41st nationally in total defense and 117th to 57th in scoring defense. "We got to this point by playing very good defense and playing together," Allen told reporters. "Utah will be a tremendous challenge as they are a great football team that has won a lot of bowl games in the last several years." The key to the game could hinge on the ability of Indiana's offensive line to slow down Utah's All-American defensive end Hunter Dimick, as the Hoosiers search for their first postseason win since 1991.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened Utah as 6.5-point favorites, but they have since been bet down slightly to the current number of -6. The total opened at 54 and has been bet up a half-point to sit at 54.5. Check out the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for a clear night in Santa Clara, with temperatures hovering around 50 degrees for the game.

INJURY REPORT:

Indiana - WR J. Morris (questionable Wednesday, undisclosed), RB C. Gest (questionable Wednesday, ankle).

Utah - QB - T. Williams (probable Wednesday, knee), RB J. Howard (questionable Wednesday, undisclosed), DB. D. Hatfield (doubtful Wednesday, disciplinary).

ABOUT INDIANA (6-6, 5-7 ATS, 4-8 O/U): Junior quarterback Richard Lagow passed for 3,174 yards and 18 touchdowns in his first season as a starter but also threw 16 interceptions, including five picks over his last four games. Senior offensive lineman Dan Feeney, who has surrendered just two sacks in 45 career games, received first team All-America honors from the Associated Press to become the third player in program history to receive the accolade in back-to-back seasons. Junior linebacker Tegray Scales had a breakout season, registering a Big Ten-best 116 tackles, including 20.5 for loss.

ABOUT UTAH (8-4, 7-5 ATS, 6-6 O/U): Senior running back Joe Williams came out of retirement to register five 100-yard games en route to 1,185 rushing yards, which is the seventh-best single-season total in program history despite missing four games. Sophomore punter Mitch Wishnowsky won the Ray Guy Award with the best net punting average in the nation (44.9) and ensured that a Utah player received the award for the third consecutive season after Tom Hackett was honored in 2014 and 2015. Dimick was named to the All-Pac-12 First Team after leading the conference with 14.5 sacks.

TRENDS:

* Indiana is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.
* Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six games versus Big Ten opponents.
* Over is 6-2-1 in Indiana's last nine non-conference games.
* Over is 5-2 in Utah's last seven bowl games.

CONSENSUS: The public is on the favorite in this matchup, with 67 percent of wagers on Utah. As for the total, 63 percent of wagers are on the Over.

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl Betting Preview: Texas A&M vs. Kansas State
Covers.com

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Kansas State Wildcats (+2.5, 56.5)

A pair of former conference rivals square off in the AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl on Dec. 28 in Houston, where Texas A&M faces Kansas State. The Aggies limp into this contest after losing four of their final six games, including an ugly 54-39 setback to LSU in the regular-season finale. Kansas State, meanwhile, has won five of its last six with the only loss a late collapse against a quality Oklahoma State squad.

One of the key matchups to watch is the Kansas State rushing attack against the Texas A&M run defense. The Wildcats ran for nearly 2,800 yards and 36 touchdowns as a team with each of their top five runners averaging at least five yards per carry. Quarterback Jesse Ertz (945 yards) should see plenty of action on the ground against an Aggies squad that allowed at least 250 rushing yards in four of their final five games against Power 5 conference teams.

Texas A&M leads the all-time series 8-7, but Kansas State has won the last three meetings (all when the teams were members of the Big 12). The most recent matchup was a four-overtime triumph in 2011 that helped the Wildcats earn bowl eligibility under legendary coach Bill Snyder, who is set to embark on his 19th postseason appearance with the Wildcats. The bad news for Kansas State is that despite the win over Texas A&M, it went on to lose its bowl game that season - part of a 1-7 mark in bowl games since 2004.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened Texas A&M as 2-point favorites and they have been bet up slightly to the current number of Aggies -2.5. The total hit the board at 56.5 and was bet up to 57.5, before returning to the opening number. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Texas A&M - QB T. Knight (probable Wednesday, knee), DB A. Watts (questionable Wednesday, leg), QB J. Hubenak (questionable Wednesday, shoulder).

Kansas State - K M. McCrane (questionable Wednesday, hip), DB D. Shelley (questionable Wednesday, foot), OL A. Beecham (questionable Wednesday, undisclosed), RB A. Barnes (questionable Wednesday, stinger).

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (8-4, 4-8 ATS, 4-7-1 O/U): The Aggies allowed Derrius Guice to run for an LSU-record 285 yards in the regular-season finale, but they also couldn't stop the Tigers' passing game as Danny Etling torched their secondary for 324 yards and two scores. "We were 6-0 and No. 4 in polls at one point. Here we are three weeks later, and we are unranked (in College Football Playoff rankings). That is disappointing," said quarterback Trevor Knight (16 passing TDs, 10 rushing), who hasn't thrown for 250 yards in a game since early September, although Trayveon Williams (1,024 rushing yards, eight TDs) gives the team plenty of offensive balance. First-team All-American defensive end Myles Garrett (8.5 sacks) is a force who could end up as the No. 1 overall pick in next year's NFL draft.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (8-4, 5-7 ATS, 6-6 O/U): The Wildcats don't get much help from their passing attack, as Ertz's season high is 207 passing yards and he only has eight TD passes on the year. However, the junior has 10 rushing scores - second on the team behind Winston Dimel's 12 - and gets plenty of help from Charles Jones (577 yards), Alex Barnes (442) and Justin Silmon (387). Kansas State's defense is trending in the right direction, as the team has allowed decreasing point totals in four straight games - 43, 21, 19 and most recently six points in its regular season-ending win against TCU.

TRENDS:

* Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games overall.
* Kansas State is 1-7 ATS in its last eigght bowl games.
* Under is 5-0-1 in Texas A&M's last six non-conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Kansas State's last five games.

CONSENSUS: Another bowl game, another game where the public is siding with the favorite, with 55 percent of wagers on Texas A&M. As for the total, a sizeable 64 percent of wagers are on the Over.

 
Posted : December 28, 2016 9:21 am
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