Big East Double Dip
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Gamblers have a Big East doubleheader to wager on Friday night. Let’s start at the Carrier Dome, where Syracuse (4-2 straight up, 2-4 against the spread) will play host to West Virginia at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops were listing West Va. (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) as a 14-point favorite with a total of 59. The Orange is available on the money line for a plus-450 return (risk $100 to win $450).
Dana Holgorsen’s squad is coming off an open date after responding to its lone loss (47-21 to LSU) with back-to-backs home wins over Bowling Green (55-10) and UConn (43-16). The Mountaineers have only played one road game to date, holding off Maryland 37-31 as one-point road favorites.
WVU is led by junior quarterback Geno Smith, who is completing 64 percent of his passes. Smith has 2,159 passing yards with a 16/3 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. His favorite target is Tavon Austin, who has 42 receptions for 564 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Stedman Bailey has been Smith’s best home-run threat, hauling in 34 catches for 634 yards and five TDs.
Dustin Harrison has been WVU’s workhorse back, rushing for 436 yards and five scores on just 63 carries. Harrison is averaging 6.9 yards per carry.
Syracuse fell on hard times during Greg Robinson’s disastrous four-year tenure, going 10-37 from 2005-2008. Since then, however, the Orange has been climbing back to respectability. In 2009, the ‘Cuse went 4-8 SU but posted a respectable 6-5 spread ledger.
Then in 2010, Doug Marrone led the Orange to its first bowl game since 2004. The ‘Cuse made it a successful return to postseason play, beating Kansas St. 36-34 in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium.
In Week 1, Syracuse rallied from a 15-point deficit midway through the fourth quarter to force overtime and eventually beat Wake Forest 36-29 as a six-point home favorite. The Orange have won three close games over Rhode Island (21-14), Toledo (33-30 in OT) and Tulane (37-34), and they lost at USC and in double overtime to Rutgers.
Like WVU, Syracuse has had two weeks to prep for this spot. As a home underdog during Marrone’s three-year tenure, it is 3-4 versus the number.
The ‘over’ is 5-1 overall for the Mountaineers, easily cashing in their only previous road assignment. The ‘over’ has also produced a profit for the ‘Cuse, going 4-2 overall and 2-2 in its home games.
The ‘under’ has cashed in three consecutive head-to-head meetings between these Big East schools, posting a 7-3 mark in the last 10 encounters.
When these teams met in Morgantown last season, Syracuse pulled a stunner in a 19-14 win as a 13½-point underdog. Ross Krautman buried four short field goals and the Orange’s defense intercepted Smith three times to spark the upset.
The other Big East game will go down at Papa John’s Stadium in Louisville, where the Cardinals will take on Rutgers. As of Thursday afternoon, most spots had U of L installed as a 1½-point home ‘chalk.’
Rutgers (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) has won four straight games, including last week’s 21-20 home win over Navy. But the Scarlet Knights failed to cover the spread for the first time this season in the victory as three-point home favorites.
Gary Nova shook off an early pick-six to throw for 271 yards and a pair of second-half TDs to propel RU to the comeback victory. Jawan Jamison carried the ground game, rushing for 101 yards and one TD. RU blocked a 34-yard field goal late in the final stanza and then ran out most of the clock thanks to a third-down pass by Nova.
Louisville (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) held a 16-7 halftime lead at Cincinnati last week, but the Bearcats came back to capture a 25-16 win. Nevertheless, the Cards took the cash as 13-point road underdogs.
Charlie Strong’s team has been outstanding defensively all year long, limiting opponents to only 17.7 points per game. The Cardinals have only allowed more than 17 points scored twice, as Cincy put up 25 and FIU scored 24.
But U of L’s offense has fallen on hard times, averaging just 16.3 PPG, ranking it No. 111 in the country. Teddy Bridgewater, the squad’s true freshman QB, has completed 63 percent of his passes for 709 yards, four TDs and five interceptions.
Louisville has won just one of its three home games, beating Murray St. 21-9 in Week 1, but the Cardinals are 0-3 ATS at home. RU has covered the number in both road games, winning 19-16 at Syracuse in double overtime as a 1½-point underdog. The Scarlet Knights dropped a 24-22 decision at North Carolina but still took the money as 10-point ‘dogs.
As a road underdog during Greg Schiano’s 11-year tenure, Rutgers owns a 22-15-1 spread record. Meanwhile, U of L is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite on Strong’s watch.
The ‘under’ is 5-1 overall for RU, 2-0 in its road games. The ‘under’ is 5-0-1 overall for U of L, going 3-0 in its home games. On the flip side, the ‘over’ has hit in five straight head-to-head meetings between these schools.
When these teams met in New Jersey last year, Louisville cruised to a 40-13 win as a 3½-point road favorite.
ESPN2 will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
West Virginia, Syracuse Orange Friday Night ESPN
By: Dave Consolazio
Donbest.com
The Big East takes center stage Friday night as the Syracuse Orange host the West Virginia Mountaineers in an ESPN prime-time broadcast.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. (ET) from the Carrier Dome. West Virginia is currently a 14-point road favorite on the Don Best odds screen.
This game will kick off at the same time as another Big East matchup, Rutgers at Louisville, which will be televised on ESPN2. If Rutgers and West Virginia both win this week, it could set the stage for a big conference showdown between two 6-1 teams next week when the Scarlett Knights host the Mountaineers.
West Virginia (5-1) is off to a strong start this season, the only loss coming to the LSU Tigers who rank fourth in the Don Best Linemakers Poll and first in the BCS. The Mountaineers are only 3-3 ATS, but are 3-1 ATS over their last four games.
Geno Smith has emerged as a star under center for West Virginia, passing for 2,159 yards and 16 touchdowns with only three interceptions through the first six games of the season. Against Syracuse’s suspect secondary (giving up 293 yards per game through the air), look for Smith to have another big game Friday night.
He threw for 450 yards and four touchdowns in West Virginia’s last game against Connecticut.
Syracuse (4-2) has won each of its four games this season by a touchdown or less, and lost to Rutgers by a field goal; every game has been close with the exception of a 38-17 loss on the road to USC back in September. The Orange are 2-4 ATS.
Statistically, Syracuse ranks in the bottom half of the nation in passing yards, rushing yards, total offense and total defense. Those stats are particularly alarming when early season opponents included the Toledo Rockets, Tulane Green Wave and the FCS Rhode Island Rams.
Syracuse will need its best effort of the season to have a shot at upsetting West Virginia at home.
The Orange did pull of just such an upset last season in West Virginia, when they went on the road as a 13½-point underdog and beat the Mountaineers, 19-14. Smith had the worst game of his career in that game, passing for only 178 yards and throwing three interceptions.
Last season marked the first time West Virginia had lost to Syracuse since 2001. The Mountaineers are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Orange. West Virginia is 4-0 both SU and ATS in the last four trips to Syracuse.
Both of these teams have trended ‘over’ in total betting recently, with the ‘over’ cashing the last five West Virginia games and five of Syracuse’s last seven. That goes against this series’ recent history, in which five of the last seven games between these two teams have gone ‘under,’ including each of the last three.
Rutgers at Louisville: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Louisville Cardinals (-2, 39.5)
THE STORY: Rutgers looks to stay on the inside track toward a Big East title when it travels to Louisville on Friday night. The Scarlet Knights currently sit atop the standings with a 2-0 league mark, just the second time they have won their first two Big East games in 21 seasons in the conference.
LINE MOVES: Louisville opened as a 1.5-point home underdog but has been bet up, flipping the spread to -2. The total has hovered around its opening number of 40 points.
ABOUT RUTGERS (5-1, 2-0 Big East, 5-1 ATS): The Scarlet Knights have made a living off opponents’ mistakes thus far, leading the nation in turnover margin (2.17). Rutgers is tied for the national lead with 24 takeaways, ranking second with 14 interceptions and third with 10 fumbles recovered. The defense has been depleted recently, however, with LB Marvin Booker (knee) and DL Michael Larrow (ankle) both lost for the season last week against Navy.
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (2-4, 0-1, 3-3 ATS): The Cardinals let a golden opportunity slip away in their Big East opener last weekend, giving up 18 unanswered points in the second half of a 25-16 setback at Cincinnati. QB Will Stein (621 yards passing, 5 TD, 1 INT), who had missed two games with an injured shoulder, made a brief return against the Bearcats in place of Terry Bridgewater (709 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT). Both are expected to play Friday.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The road team has won each of the last two meetings in lopsided fashion — Louisville rolled to a 40-13 victory last season, while Rutgers earned a 34-14 win in 2010.
2. Excluding the three-point thrillers in 2006 and 2007, the average margin of victory in games between the two schools since 1986 is 37.2 points.
3. Rutgers is third in the nation with 51 blocked kicks since 2002, including four this season. LB Jamal Merrell has three blocks in 2011, including two at Syracuse.
TRENDS:
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cardinals are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 conference games.
* Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
PREDICTION: Rutgers 27, Louisville 17. According to head coach Charlie Strong, the Cardinals are struggling with confidence right now —and that seems unlikely to improve against the surging, opportunistic Scarlet Knights.
West Virginia at Syracuse: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
West Virginia Mountaineers at Syracuse Orange (+13.5, 59)
THE STORY: The bye week has been about the only thing recently slowing down Geno Smith, who leads the prolific offense of No. 15 West Virginia into a prime-time showdown Friday in Syracuse. The Mountaineers have scored 98 points in their last two games with Smith throwing for 688 yards and seven touchdowns. The junior could keep piling on numbers against a Syracuse defense that ranks 112th against the pass. The Orange will need Ryan Nassib to counter every punch, but the senior has struggled in his two games before last week’s bye, throwing for less than 200 yards in each and tossing three interceptions.
LINE MOVES: WVU opened as a 14.5-point road favorite in the Carrier Dome. However, money on the home side has the spread down to 13.5. The total has climbed from 57.5 to 59 points.
ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (5-1, 1-0 BIG EAST, 3-3 ATS): The Mountaineers four-wide sets will spread an Orange defense lacking in confidence. Syracuse has been eaten up by game-changing targets, allowing a 100-yard receiver in each of its last three games. Smith has three weapons on the outside in Stedman Bailey, Tavon Austin and Ivan McCartney, who all rank in the top four in the Big East in receiving yards. Each has helped WVU produce a whopping 19 plays of 30 yards or more. Syracuse conceded three such plays for touchdowns in a narrow win over Tulane two weeks ago.
ABOUT SYRACUSE (4-2, 0-1 BIG EAST, 2-4 ATS): Nassib finished September as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country, but secondaries have taken away his top threat in Van Chew. The sure-handed receiver has just two catches for 20 yards and no touchdowns in the last two games after grabbing three scores in the first three games. If Nassib can’t find Chew in this one, he’ll have to once again turn to the ground game to keep his counterpart Smith on the sidelines. The Orange ran the ball 40 times for a season-high 170 yards last time out in a 37-34 road win over Tulane.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Syracuse stunned West Virginia 19-14 last year, when Smith was sacked five times and threw three interceptions in the first half.
2. The Orange haven’t won at home in the series since 2001.
3. Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones returns after missing five games with a lower-body injury. The redshirt senior, who recorded 9.5 tackles for loss in 2010, should help a pass-rush that ranks seventh in the conference and failed to take down the quarterback in its last game.
TRENDS:
* Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Syracuse.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Syracuse.
* Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings.
* Mountaineers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
PREDICTION: West Virginia 38, Syracuse 28 – The bye week really aided the Orange’s injuries in the secondary and it could keep Smith in check in the first half. After all, WVU has trailed in all six games this season. Smith, though, should be able to make just enough big plays late to earn the road win.
NCAAF Week 8
Friday, October 21
Louisville lost last three games, scoring 13-7-16 points; they canned the offensive coordinator and head coach got new 7-year contract- guess its not his fault they stink. Rutgers won its last four games- their two road games were decided by total of 5 points. Last three Rutgers-Louisville games were all decided by 20+ points; Cardinals are 3-1 as series fave. Under is 4-0-1 in Louisville's lined games this season, 4-1 in Rutgers' last five games. Three of last five Rutgers games were decided by FG or less.
Syracuse (+13) upset West Virginia 19-14 LY, its first series win in last nine tries; Mountaineers won last four visits here, by 21-41-8-11 points, as favorites covered five of last seven series meetings here. Syracuse has already played three OT games this year; their last three games were all decided by exactly 3 points. Last four West Virginia games and four of five Syracuse games all went over the total. Mountaineers struggled in its only road games, winning 37-31 (+1) at Maryland after leading 27-10 at the half- they were outrushed 188-92, outgained Terrapins 480-477.