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Boise State won nine of last ten games vs Fresno State, winning last five, last three by average score of 54-15; favorites covered last nine in series, but this is non-league game now, with Boise off to MWC. Bulldogs lost 51-0 in Boise LY; Boise won last two visits here, 51-34/34-21. Fresno isn't very good on defense anymore, allowing 36-42-38 points in losses this year, by 15-13-10 points. Even North Dakota scored 22 points on them, and they're I-AA. Broncos are 4-0, winning road games at Toledo (40-15) and over Georgia (35-21) in Atlanta.
Boise State at Fresno State: What Bettors Need to Know
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs (+20.5, 59)
THE STORY: Boise State isn’t currently in the same conference as Fresno State but looks to continue its recent one-sided mastery of the Bulldogs when the two teams meet in Fresno on Friday night. The No. 6 Broncos have defeated Fresno State five straight times and have averaged 48.4 points during the streak, including scoring 51 or more points each of the past three seasons. Fresno State is still part of the Western Athletic Conference this season but joins Boise State in the Mountain West next season.
TV: ESPN
LINE MOVES: Boise State opened as high as -21 and has been bet down slightly. The total opened at 58 points and had climbed with money on the over.
ABOUT FRESNO STATE (2-3, 2-3 ATS): The Bulldogs are averaging 30.6 points but are allowing even more at 32.4. Fresno State allowed 42 points to Nebraska, 36 to California and gave up 38 last Saturday to a Mississippi squad that entered the contest as one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. Quarterback Derek Carr has a strong arm and has passed for 1,291 yards and 10 touchdowns. Running back Robbie Rouse (600 yards) has topped 100 yards in four straight games. Big-play receiver Jalen Saunders had 127 yards receiving and 57 yards rushing against Ole Miss. Defensive tackle Logan Harrell (8.5 tackles for loss) is Fresno State’s top defender.
ABOUT BOISE STATE (4-0, 2-2): Quarterback Kellen Moore is coming off a shaky game in which he passed for a career-low 142 yards and was intercepted twice in a victory over Nevada. Moore (12,004) did become the 16th player in college history to top 12,000 career yards. He ranks eighth in career passing touchdowns with 113. Running back Doug Martin (328 yards) had a season-best 126 rushing yards for his 11th career 100-yard performance. Receiver Geraldo Boldewijn will play for the first time since this season after missing the first four games due to an eligibility situation. Cornerback Jerrell Gavins (knee) is likely done for the season. He has three of Boise State’s seven interceptions. Defensive end Tyrone Crawford has a team-best five tackles for losses.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Boise State leads the series 9-4 and won last year’s meeting 51-0.
2. Bulldogs coach Pat Hill is just 1-9 against Boise State with the victory coming in 2005.
3. Saunders is the first Fresno State player with three consecutive 100-yard receiving games since Bernard Berrian in 2001.
TRENDS:
* Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Favorite is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Fresno State.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
PREDICTION: Boise State 49, Fresno State 23 – The Broncos should find scoring against Fresno State to be an easy proposition while cruising to another victory.
Boise St. at Fresno St.
By Brian Edwards
This week’s edition of Friday Night Lights takes us to Fresno, where the home team is a decided underdog against former WAC rival and future Mountain West counterpart, Boise State. As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops were listing the Broncos as 21-point favorites with the total in the 58-59 range.
Fresno State (2-3 straight up, 2-3 against the spread) is available on the money line for a lucrative return. The Las Vegas Hilton had the Bulldogs with 10/1 odds to win outright as of early Thursday (risk $100 to win $1,000).
Boise State (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) has cruised to four easy wins over Georgia (35-21), Toledo (40-15), Tulsa (41-21) and Nevada (30-10). However, the Broncos have failed to cover the number in their last two outings because their back-ups have allowed backdoor covers in the fourth quarter.
Chris Petersen’s team avenged last year’s heartbreaking loss at Nevada this past Saturday, racing out to a 30-0 lead before the Wolf Pack got garbage points to hook up its backers as a 27½-point underdog. Doug Martin rushed for 126 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while the BSU defense limited Nevada to only 182 yards of total offense.
BSU has been known for its dynamic offense through the years, but it now has a defense that’s starting to steal the show. This unit has given up just 16 first-half points in the first four games (seven to UGA, nine to Toledo).
The offense hasn’t taken a step back, though. Senior quarterback Kellen Moore is on the cusp of breaking NCAA records galore. Moore has completed 73.9 percent of his passes for 1,137 yards with a 14/4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio.
Fresno St. dropped its first two games at California (36-21) and at Nebraska, taking the cash in Lincoln as a 27 ½-point underdog in a 42-29 loss that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Bulldogs bounced back with a pair of wins over North Dakota (27-22) and Idaho (48-24) before hosting Ole Miss last week.
The Rebels captured a 38-28 win at FSU as three-point underdogs, scoring the last 11 points in the final stanza.
Pat Hill’s team is led by junior RB Robbie Rouse, who has rushed for 600 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Derek Carr, the younger brother of former Fresno QB David Carr, has thrown for 1,291 yards with a 10/4 TD-INT ratio.
The ‘over’ is 4-1 for Fresno St. this year, but we should note that Friday’s total is the highest it has seen. The previous high was last week’s 55 vs. Ole Miss.
As for BSU, it has seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 this year with the lone ‘over’ coming in the win over Georgia. Dating back to last season, the ‘under’ is on an 8-1-1 run for the Broncos.
Boise St. owns a 9-1 record both SU and ATS in its last 10 games against the Bulldogs, who got spanked by a 51-0 count on the smurf turf last season. The Broncos have scored 51 points or more in the last three meetings.
As a home underdog since 2001, Fresno St. is 6-7 ATS. Meanwhile, BSU has compiled a 17-10 spread record in 27 games as a road favorite during Petersen’s six-year tenure. Since 2008, the Broncos are 14-4 ATS as road ‘chalk.’
Kickoff is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Boise State’s offensive line is dealing with a few injuries. Jake Broyles, the starting sophomore guard, is ‘out’ for the season with a toe injury. Also, starting center Thomas Byrd is ‘doubtful’ with a knee injury that kept him out of last week’s win over Nevada.
Most spots have Illinois favored by 14 at Indiana in its first road game of the season. The unbeaten Illini has failed to cover the spread in four straight games as a road favorite. It is 3-6 ATS in nine games as a road ‘chalk’ during Ron Zook’s seven-year tenure. Illinois will be without sophomore linebacker Jonathan Brown (suspension).
Indiana has covered the number in five consecutive games as a home underdog.
Boston College star RB Montel Harris has been downgraded to ‘out’ Saturday at Clemson with a knee injury. The Eagles were 21-point ‘dogs as of early Thursday afternoon.
South Carolina DE Melvin Ingram is ‘questionable’ Saturday vs. Kentucky. Ingram, who has scored three touchdowns this year, injured his foot in last week’s 16-13 home loss to Auburn. He did not practice on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday.
The ‘over’ is 5-0 for both TCU and Ga. Tech.
Florida has covered the number in six straight games at LSU. The last non-cover was in 1997 when Herb Tyler and Kevin Faulk led Gerry DiNardo’s team to a 28-21 win over the top-ranked Gators on a night when Steve Spurrier stubbornly didn’t give Fred Taylor enough touches. The last time UF was a double-digit underdog at LSU, Keiwan Ratliff had three interceptions to lead the Gators to a 19-7 win over the eventual national champs led by Nick Saban.
With senior QB John Brantley out with a high ankle sprain that’ll probably keep him out until the Georgia game on Oct. 29, true freshman QB Jeff Driskel will get his first career start under center.
Auburn WR Emory Blake, who has 19 receptions and four TD catches, is ‘out’ Saturday at Arkansas along with fellow WR Trovon Reed. The Razorbacks, who are favored by 10 at most spots, are hurting on the defensive line. They expect to get senior DE Jake Bequette back this week after missing the last three games with a hamstring injury. However, DT Tenarius Wright (arm) is ‘out’ and DT Robert Thomas is ‘doubtful.’