Friday NCAAF Action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Houston Cougars at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+2.5, 75.5)
THE STORY: No. 7 Houston looks to complete its quest for a perfect regular season and a possible BCS bowl bid with perhaps its toughest road trip of the year at Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are also undefeated in Conference USA play, so this will determine the winner of the West Division and decide who gets to host the Conference USA Championship Game on Dec. 3. This matchup pits the league’s two best quarterbacks in Houston’s Case Keenum and Tulsa’s G.J. Kinne. Kinne trails only Keenum — the NCAA’s career record-holder in every major passing category — in passing yards per game, pass efficiency and total offense.
LINE: Houston opened as high as -3.5 and has dropped to -2.5. The total has climbed from 75 to 75.5.
WEATHER: The forecast in Tulsa is calling for winds, blowing south down field, at speeds of up to 20 mph.
ABOUT HOUSTON (11-0, 7-0 Conference USA, 9-2 ATS): Lost amid the hoopla of Keenum leading the Cougars’ record-breaking offense has been the play of the defense the last three games. Houston has held its previous three opponents to 37 combined points, including a 37-7 victory over SMU last weekend. The Cougars limited the Mustangs’ high-octane offense to only 263 total yards, 24 of which were on the ground. Senior linebacker Sammy Brown was named the Walter Camp National Defensive Player of the Week after recording 4.5 tackles for loss and three sacks.
ABOUT TULSA (8-3, 7-0 Conference USA, 7-4 ATS): Houston has received the national headlines out of C-USA, but the Golden Hurricane have been awfully impressive as well. If not for an ultra-aggressive non-conference schedule that included losses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State, Tulsa could very well be 11-0 heading into this matchup, too. Kinne was named the Conference USA Player of the Week after his team’s 57-28 win at UTEP, completing 76 percent of his passes for 300 yards and three touchdowns. It was Kinne’s 14th 300-yard passing game of his career.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Golden Hurricane are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 conference games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Houston is looking for its school-record 12th win of the season.
2. Tulsa has won seven straight, and six have come by at least 17 points.
3. The Cougars lead the nation in both total offense (618 yards per game) and scoring offense (53 points per game).
PREDICTION: Tulsa 45, Houston 42. In a season full of BCS-shaking upsets, the Golden Hurricane will provide the latest in a high-scoring shootout between two evenly matched teams.
Arkansas Razorbacks at LSU Tigers (-11.5, 52)
THE STORY: After last week’s shuffling of the BCS puzzle, the only thing certain is that the SEC will once again be represented in the National Championship Game by at least one school. Right now, it's shaping up as an Alabama-Louisiana State rematch, but No. 3 Arkansas will have something to say about that. The Razorbacks used last weekend’s chaos to jump up into third in the BCS standings. They probably still need a win over the No. 1 Tigers and an Alabama loss to reach the National Championship Game, but anything is possible. Several scenarios exist in the case of a three-way tie atop the SEC West between LSU, Alabama and Arkansas. The easiest way for the Tigers to ensure themselves a spot in at least the SEC Championship game would be to topple the Razorbacks in Baton Rouge. Arkansas will be playing with heavy hearts after backup tight end Garrett Uekman was found dead in his dorm room Sunday.
LINE: LSU opened at -13.5 and has been bet down to -11.5. The total has remained steady at 52.
ABOUT ARKANSAS (10-1, 6-1 SEC, 7-4 ATS): The Razorbacks’ loss came to No. 2 Alabama way back on Sept. 24. Since then they have taken down three ranked teams, including a 44-28 win over then-No. 9 South Carolina on Nov. 5. Arkansas has eclipsed 40 points in each of the last three games and boasts a passing attack that is averaging 316.9 yards - 10th best in the nation. Tyler Wilson has 21 touchdowns and five interceptions and was named the SEC Offensive Player of the Week after putting up 365 yards and three scores in a 44-17 drubbing of Mississippi State last Saturday.
ABOUT LSU (11-0, 7-0, 8-3 ATS): Aiming to stop that passing attack will be the Tigers’ No. 2-ranked scoring defense, which is holding opponents to 10 points. That defense is allowing only 158.3 yards through the air and has yielded a total of 11 touchdowns in 2011. LSU has shown off its offense in the last two weeks, beating Western Kentucky and Ole Miss by a combined 94-12. The time-share at quarterback between Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee has not been an issue because the running game has accounted for 644 yards the last two weeks.
TRENDS:
* Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Louisiana State.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Louisiana State.
* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Alfred Blue has ripped off runs of at least 45 yards in back-to-back games for the Tigers.
2. Saturday will feature the highest-ranked matchup at Tiger Stadium since No. 1 LSU beat No. 3 Ole Miss in 1959.
3. Arkansas is ranked in the top three for the first time since Oct. 15, 1978.
PREDICTION: LSU 24, Arkansas 17 -- The Razorbacks will put up a few points, but the Tigers will get the stops they need to win.
Pittsburgh Panthers at West Virginia Mountaineers (-6.5, 57)
THE STORY: The 104th installment of the Backyard Brawl comes amid speculation over how much longer this rivalry game will continue. While the Panthers aren't ACC-bound for another two seasons, the Mountaineers are in litigation to leave the Big East as early as next year for the Big 12, which could make scheduling it a challenge. WVU athletic director Oliver Luck said last week he and Pitt AD Steve Pederson “both have a strong desire to maintain the rivalry,” which again has BCS implications. The visiting Panthers and No. 23 Mountaineers are both 3-2 in Big East play, behind 4-2 leaders Louisville and Rutgers, and are coming off bye weeks.
LINE: West Virginia opened at -7.5 and has dropped to -6.5. The total has stayed steady at 75 points.
ABOUT PITTSBURGH (5-5, 3-2 Big East, 5-5 ATS): The Panthers will counter the league's top passing attack (362.1 yards) with a defense that's yielded just 176.4 passing yards over its last five games. Pitt delivered one of its best defensive performances last time out in a 21-14 win at Louisville, in which it held the Cardinals to just 165 passing yards and 115 on the ground. The Panthers didn't allow the second touchdown until just 12 seconds remained, and limited the Cardinals to 3-for-11 on third-down conversions. Remarkably, they also didn't incur any penalty yards in rebounding from a 26-23 home loss to Cincinnati in which the Panthers blew a 10-point second-half lead.
ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (7-3, 3-2 Big East, 5-5 ATS): After stumbling at home in a mistake-plagued loss to Louisville on Nov. 5, the Mountaineers earned a hard-fought road triumph at Cincinnati, 24-21 on Nov. 12. Junior quarterback Geno Smith continued his torrid season with 372 yards against the Bearcats, the sixth time he's topped 370. He's put up the school's two highest single-game efforts (463 vs. LSU, 450 vs. Connecticut) already, and needs just 111 yards to surpass Marc Bulger's season mark of 3,607. One of Smith's top targets has been sophomore Stedman Bailey, whose 10 touchdown catches are two behind the school's season record held by Chris Henry and Darius Reynaud.
TRENDS:
* Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.
* Mountaineers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine conference games.
* Over is 8-1 in Mountaineers' last nine games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Panthers' last five games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Mountaineers have won two straight in the series, following back-to-back Pitt triumphs that included the 13-9 stunner at Morgantown in 2007.
2. Pittsburgh's Todd Graham and WVU's Dana Holgorsen will make their Backyard Brawl head coaching debuts, though Graham was an assistant under the Mountaineers' Rich Rodriguez for the 2001-02 games.
3. The victor will know how Louisville stands by kickoff, as the Cardinals play South Florida earlier Friday, but Rutgers doesn't take the field until Saturday at Connecticut.
PREDICTION: West Virginia 33, Pittsburgh 23 – Pitt leads 61-39-3 all-time, but the Mountaineers will feed off some extra emotion with the uncertainty of perhaps never hosting a “Brawl” again.
Cal Golden Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils (-6, 54)
THE STORY: Arizona State once appeared destined to represent the Pac-12 South in the conference title game, but a three-game losing streak has changed the program’s fortunes. The Sun Devils desperately need a victory over California on Friday and then will must wait and see wait unfolds Saturday to see whether or not there is a three-way atop the division. If the Sun Devils, UCLA and Utah all end with a 5-4 conference slate, Arizona State is the division champ. UCLA clinches the division if it beats USC on Saturday.
LINE: Arizona State opened around -5.5 and has climbed to -6. The total opened at 53.5 and has climbed to 54.
ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (6-5, 4-4 Pac-12 South, 6-5 ATS): The Sun Devils are 5-1 at home after losing to Arizona last Saturday. Junior running back Cameron Marshall has rushed for a Pac-12 high 16 touchdowns and is two behind the school record shared by Woody Green (1972) and Terry Battle (1996). Sophomore quarterback Brock Osweiler is coming off a 487-yard outing that ranks fifth-highest in Arizona State history. Osweiler has passed for 3,377 yards, second-most in school history behind Andrew Walter (3,877 in 2002). Osweiler has 21 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions. Senior receiver Gerrell Robinson has 61 receptions for 1,100 yards. The Sun Devils have allowed 97 points during their three-game skid.
ABOUT CALIFORNIA (6-5, 3-5 Pac-12 North, 3-7-1 ATS): The Golden Bears have an impressive duo of receivers in sophomore Keenan Allen and senior Marvin Jones. Allen is having one of the top seasons in Cal history with 84 catches for 1,200 yards. The receptions are third most in school history and the yardage ranks second most behind Geoff McArthur (1,504 yards in 2003). Jones has at least one catch in 36 consecutive games and ranks eighth in school history with 143 receptions. He has 49 catches for 704 yards this season. Junior quarterback Zach Maynard has thrown for 2,565 yards and 16 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. Senior linebacker Mychal Kendricks leads the Bears in tackles (88) and tackles for loss (11).
TRENDS:
* Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Golden Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Golden Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Arizona State.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Cal leads the series 16-14 and has won seven of the last eight meetings.
2. The Golden Bears are just 1-4 on the road and have allowed 31 or more points in each game.
3. Arizona State has forced 28 turnovers and its plus-11 turnover margin is tops in the Pac-12.
PREDICTION: California 34, Arizona State 31 – The Golden Bears continue dominance of series and the Sun Devils complete a devastating slide to miss the Pac-12 title game.
Arkansas at LSU Preview
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
With the college football world watching with keen interest Friday, top-ranked Louisiana State (11-0 straight up, 8-3 against the spread) will take on No. 3 Arkansas in a crucial SEC West showdown with national implications. CBS will provide television coverage at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.
As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops were listing LSU as a 12½-point favorite with a total of 52½. The number opened at 14 at most spots with the total at 52. Some books reduced the number on the side to as low as 11½ on Wednesday, but most shops were back up to 12½ on Thanksgiving Day.
Arkansas (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) is available on the money line for a lucrative plus-400 payout (risk $100 to win $400).
Les Miles’s team is unbeaten in five home games, winning in each contest by 28 points or more. With that said, due to extremely ‘chalky’ numbers, the Tigers are only 2-3 ATS at Tiger Stadium.
With the exception of its 9-6 overtime win at Alabama, LSU has won its 10 other games by 13 points or more. The Tigers average 37.9 points per game and only surrender 10.0 PPG.
LSU has a run-first offense with a powerful offensive line and a slew of talented backs. The best of those is sophomore Spencer Ware, who Miles is fond of describing as ‘a violent runner.’ Ware has rushed for a team-high 650 yards and seven touchdowns on 160 carries for a 4.1 yards-per-carry average.
Michael Ford is LSU’s most explosive running back, averaging 5.9 YPC. Ford has rushed for 625 yards and seven scores. Alfred Blue has rushed for 445 yards and six TDs on 70 carries for a 6.4 YPC average.
Jarrett Lee has been the starting QB for most of the season, throwing 13 TD passes compared to only three interceptions. However, Miles has gone back to Jordan Jefferson as his starter in recent weeks. Jefferson is a better runner, while Lee is the more polished passer.
Jefferson has completed 27-of-41 passes for 446 yards and four TDs without being intercepted. Jefferson has also run for 200 yards and a pair of scores.
LSU has one of the SEC’s top wide receivers in junior Rueben Randle, who has 39 receptions for 755 yards and eight touchdowns.
Bobby Petrino’s squad has won seven in a row since suffering its only loss of the season, a 38-14 setback at Alabama back on Sept. 24. The Razorbacks are 5-2 versus the number during this stretch.
Arkansas has struggled on the road, however, especially for our purposes. The Hogs are 0-3 ATS on the road and they needed second-half comebacks to win outright at Ole Miss and at Vanderbilt.
When Arkansas went to Oxford to face former head coach Houston Nutt, the Rebels raced out to a 17-0 lead in the first half. The Razorbacks eventually rallied to collect a 29-24 victory but never threatened to cover as 14½-point favorites.
Petrino’s team was extremely fortunate to escape Music City unscathed the following week. Vandy had a 28-20 lead late in the third quarter with a second-and-goal opportunity at the three yard line. But Zac Stacy coughed up a fumble and Jerry Franklin scooped it up and raced 94 yards to the end zone.
Nevertheless, Vandy was in the red zone at crunch time with several shots at the game-winning TD. The Commodores settled for a chip-shot field goal to force overtime, but it missed and Arkansas won a 31-28 decision.
Since then, the Hogs have cruised to three easy home wins both SU and ATS. They’ve beaten South Carolina (44-28), Tennessee (49-7) and Mississippi St. (44-17).
Just as I suggested at the VI Seminar back in August, junior QB Tyler Wilson has turned out to be an upgrade from Ryan Mallett. Wilson has completed 63.1 percent of his passes for 3,215 yards with a 21/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
He has perhaps the best group of WRs in the country. Jarius Adams has made 61 receptions for 1,002 yards and 10 TDs. Joe Adams has 46 catches for 595 yards and three TDs.
With Knile Davis going down with a season-ending injury in August, Denis Johnson has become the go-to guy, especially of late. Johnson has rushed for a team-high 606 yards with a 6.7 YPC average. Ronnie Wingo also has big-play potential, but he’s not as much of a between-the-tackles runner. Wingo has rushed for 424 yards and three TDs.
The key to Arkansas pulling an upset begin with establishing balance with an effective running game. This will be especially difficult because nobody, not even Alabama and Trent Richardson, has been able to consistently run on John Chavis’s stop unit.
If (and it’s a BIG if) the Hogs can run the ball, it will set up play-action opportunities for Wilson, and it’ll make protecting Wilson easier for the UA offensive line. Wilson didn’t have any time to throw against Alabama and many feel that’ll be the story again in Baton Rouge.
Another key to the game is Arkansas stopping LSU’s ground attack. In that matchup, I give LSU a considerable advantage.
The ‘over’ is 7-4 overall for the Hogs, 2-1 in their three true road assignments. The ‘over’ has hit in four straight for the Hogs and they have had at least 52 combined points scored in all of their games.
Totals have been an overall wash (5-5-1) for LSU, with the ‘under’ going 3-2 in its home games.
Arkansas has had the best of LSU in the head-to-head rivalry in recent years. The Hogs have won three of the last four games outright, taking the money in each instance. When they met in Fayetteville last year, Arkansas won by a 31-23 count as a 3½-point home favorite.
NCAAF Week 13
Houston is 11-0, 8-2 vs spread, covering last six games; they've held last three opponents to 17 or less points. Tulsa won its last seven games, 5-0 vs spread in last five; their three losses are all by 20+ points, but losses are to Boise State and the other two Oklahoma schools. Dogs covered five of last six series games, with Houston failing to cover last two tries as series favorite. Cougars have won two of last three visits to this site. Home underdogs are 5-10 vs spread in Conference USA this year.
Underdogs covered six of last eight Backyard Brawls, with three of last four decided by 4 or less points; this is last time this will be a conference game, with Pitt bolting for ACC. West Virginia won six of last nine vs Panthers, winning three of last four played here, with wins by 3-32-21 points. Four of last five Pitt games stayed under total; seven of last eight Mountaineer games went over. Big East home faves are 5-6 vs spread.
Arkansas beat LSU three of last four years; five of last six series games were decided by 5 or less points. Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Hogs' last seven visits here. That said, LSU is 8-2 vs spread this season, and in games they didn't cover, they won 35-7/42-9- they're 2-2 as home faves, with home wins by 28-30-35-33 points. Arkansas won its last seven in a row; they're 1-1 as dogs, with only loss 38-14 at Alabama (+11). SEC double digit home favorites are 13-4 vs spread this year.
Arizona State just lost three close games in row, allowing 32.3 ppg; now they need win here and USC win over UCLA to get to Pac-12 title game. Cal Bears beat Sun Devils seven of last eight years, including 50-17 LY at home. Favorites covered five of last six series games. Cal lost rivalry game to Stanford last week; they're 1-3 as underdog this season. Pac-10 home favorites of 5+ points are 14-8 vs spread.