USC at Colorado: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes (+21, 58.5)
THE STORY: USC gave up a school-record 56 points in its gut-wrenching triple-overtime loss to No. 3 Stanford last weekend. Now, the Trojans, who dropped to 64th nationally in scoring defense at 26.8 points per game, look to bounce back with a win at Colorado. The Buffaloes have yet to win a conference game in their first-ever Pac-12 season and they are riding a six-game losing streak for the first time since 2006, when they started the year 0-6.
This is USC’s first Friday night game since 1999 and it’s Colorado’s first-ever game on Friday. The Trojans lead this all-time series 5-0, but these teams haven’t met since 2002.
LINE MOVES: Southern Cal opened as high as -22 and has been bet down to -21. The total opened at 56.5 points and has been bet up to 58.5.
ABOUT USC (6-2, 3-2 Pac-12, 4-4 ATS): If there was one positive for the Trojans to take from the loss to Stanford, it was the offense’s continued dominance. Southern Cal scored at least 30 points for the fourth consecutive game and fifth time this season. Running back Curtis McNeal rushed for a career-high 145 yards and two touchdowns and wideout Robert Woods kept his outstanding season going with 89 yards and a touchdown. The sophomore is tied for second nationally with 10.1 receptions per game and is on pace to break USC’s single-season receptions record.
ABOUT COLORADO (1-8, 0-5 Pac-12, 2-7 ATS): After back-to-back blowout losses to Oregon and Arizona State, the Buffaloes’ tough Pac-12 schedule continues this Friday. Colorado is struggling on both sides of the ball, ranking in the bottom 30 nationally in both total offense and total defense, while allowing 38 points per game. Quarterback Tyler Hansen is one of the few bright spots. The senior moved into fifth place on Colorado’s all-time career passing yards list after throwing for 285 yards and a touchdown in a 48-14 loss at Arizona State.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. USC quarterback Matt Barkley needs 108 yards of total offense to move into third on the school’s career total offense list.
2. The forecast in Boulder calls for snow this weekend, and temperatures are expected to be in the 30s Friday evening. That’s extra cold for kids from California.
3. The Buffaloes have lost their last four games by an average of 36.5 points.
TRENDS:
* Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as road favorites.
* Buffaloes are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as home underdogs.
* Under is 6-2 in Trojans' last eight games as favorites.
* Over is 8-3 in Buffaloes' last 11 games as home underdogs.
PREDICTION: USC 45, Colorado 20. The Trojans might struggle initially to get over such a tough loss, but in the end they’ll blow past a weak Buffaloes defense.
USC at Colorado Preview
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Southern California is in bounce-back mode Friday night when it travels to Boulder to face a struggling Colorado squad on ESPN at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
As of late Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had USC (6-2 straight up, 4-4 against the spread) listed as a 21-point favorite with a total of 58 1/2. The Las Vegas Hilton had the Buffaloes available to win outright for a 10/1 payout (risks $100 to win $1,000).
Lane Kiffin’s team is coming off a gut-wrenching triple-overtime loss to Stanford by a 56-48 count. The Trojans failed to hook up their backers as 7 ½-point home underdogs due to the rule that teams have to go for a two-point conversion after scoring touchdowns in the third extra session.
Curtis McNeal rushed 20 times for 145 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Matt Barkley completed 28-of-45 throws for 283 passing yards and three TDs compared to one interception. But it wasn’t enough for the Trojans, who nearly got into field-goal range at the end of regulation.
However, the officials ruled that the clock expired before USC got out of bounds on the final play. After reviewing the play, the call was upheld.
Both of McNeal’s touchdown runs came early in the third quarter as USC went ahead by a 20-10 score. Stanford responded with 14 unanswered points and the Pac-12 rivals went back and forth from there.
With the game knotted at 27-27 with just over three minutes remaining, USC sophomore cornerback Nickell Robey intercepted an Andrew Luck pass and raced 33 yards to paydirt to give his team a 34-27 advantage.
But Luck would respond, promptly marching the Cardinal down the field on a crucial drive that was capped by Stepfan Taylor’s two-yard touchdown plunge.
Both squads answered the others’ scores in the first two overtimes. Then in triple OT, Taylor’s second rushing score and Luck’s subsequent two-point conversion pass to Coby Fleener gave Stanford a 56-48 lead.
USC would get inside the five on its possession, but McNeal was stripped of the ball by Ben Gardner and A.J. Tarpley recovered the fumble in the end zone to keep the Cardinal unbeaten and in the hunt for a bid to the BCS Championship Game.
Colorado (1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS) has lost six in a row both SU and ATS since winning its only game against Colorado St. (28-14) in Week 3. The Buffs have dropped five of those contests in blowout fashion by 20 points or more.
The defense has been atrocious, giving up an average of 38.3 points per game. Arizona St. put up 48 on CU’s defense last week in a 48-14 win in Tempe. Oregon ripped the Buffs by a 45-2 count in Boulder the previous week.
Senior quarterback Tyler Hansen has 2,029 passing yards with a 14/6 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. Hansen’s favorite target is sophomore WR Paul Richardson, who has 30 receptions for 488 yards and five TDs.
CU senior RB Rodney Stewart is the team’s premier playmaker. Stewart has rushed for 473 yards and one TD while averaging 4.2 yards per carry. He also has 28 receptions for 435 yards.
Barkley has enjoyed an outstanding junior campaign at USC. He has a 22/5 TD-INT ratio has thrown for 2,290 yards. Barkley has the benefit of throwing to one of the nation’s premier wideouts in sophomore Robert Woods, who has 81 catches for 991 yards and nine TDs.
USC junior safety T.J. McDonald will sit out the first half Friday due to an illegal hit during last week’s loss to Stanford. The Trojans’ other starting safety, junior Jawanza Starling, is ‘doubtful’ with a knee injury. Junior DE Wes Horton (arm) and RB Marc Tyler (shoulder) are also listed as ‘doubtful’ this week.
On the injury front for CU, RB Rodney Stewart will be back in the lineup after missing last week’s loss at ASU. Three defensive starters have already gone down with season-ending injuries.
The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for the Buffs, 2-1 in its three home games. As for USC, it has seen four ‘overs’ and four ‘unders’ with the ‘under’ going 2-1 in its three road assignments.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
From 2008-2010, Colorado went 8-3-1 ATS as a home underdog on Dan Hawkins’ watch. However, the Buffs are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in three home games since Jon Embree took over as head coach.
USC is 2-1 both SU and ATS in three road games this year. The Trojans are 3-3 ATS in six games as road favorites on Lane Kiffin’s watch.
Wake Forest owns a 16-8-1 ATS record as a home underdog during Jim Grobe’s 11-year tenure in Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have been double-digit home underdogs five times during this span, going 4-1 ATS. They play host to Notre Dame on Saturday night as 14-point puppies.
Vanderbilt hasn’t won outright in Gainesville since 1945. The Gators have won 20 straight over the Commodores. Most spots have UF listed as a 14-point favorite for Saturday’s 12:20 p.m. Eastern game on the SEC Network.
Florida went winless in October for the first time since 1979 and it is in the midst of its first four-game losing streak since 1988.
Since 2008, Northwestern owns a 9-3 spread record as a road underdog. The Wildcats are 17 ½-point ‘dogs Saturday at Nebraska. The ‘over’ has hit in five straight games for Pat Fitzgerald’s squad.
Coach of the Year Candidates:
1-David Shaw (Stanford)
2-Les Miles (LSU)
3-Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State)
4-Chris Petersen (Boise State)
5-Bill Snyder (Kansas State)
6-Mark Dantonio (Michigan State)
7-Brady Hoke (Michigan)
8-James Franklin (Vanderbilt)
9-Jim Grobe (Wake Forest)
10-Kevin Sumlin (Houston)
Heisman Candidates:
1-Trent Richardson (Alabama)
2-Andrew Luck (Stanford)
3-Kellen Moore (Boise State)
4-Sammy Watkins (Clemson)
5-Case Keenum (Houston)
NCAAF Week 10
Central Michigan lost five of last seven games, winning last week when woeful Akron went for 2-point conversion and win on last play of game; Chippewas won three of last four series games, but teams haven't played since '07. Six of Central's last seven games went over total; five of Kent's last six games stayed under. Kent's defense is improving, giving up 10-9 points in last two games, after losing first five games vs I-A teams by an average score of 32-8. Central is 1-5 on road, allowing 31+ points in four of last five- they were outscored 50-20 in second half of last two games.
Colorado is terrible, losing last six games (0-6 vs spread) by an average of 47-15, losing last four games by 41-28-43-34 points. Buffaloes allowed an average of 291 rushing yards in last three games. Would expect USC to pound ball and wear talent-thin Colorado down; Trojans just played tough games with Notre Dame/Stanford, losing 56-48 in OT to Cardinal at home six days ago, so they've got to be little flat here. Pac-12 favorites of 20+ points are 7-1 vs spread this season. USC is 2-1 on road, beating Cal/Notre Dame, losing 43-22 at Arizona State- they're 3-2 against the spread as a favorite this season. Colorado is 1-6 as an underdog.