Friday Night Lights
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Gamblers have a pair of college football games to wager on Friday night, including the MAC Championship Game in Detroit and the inaugural Pac-12 title game in Eugene.
Let’s start with the mismatch at Autzen Stadium between Oregon and UCLA. The Ducks won the North division with an 8-1 record, while the Bruins are representing the South loop thanks to some fortunate circumstances.
First of all, USC was a run-away winner of the South but the Trojans are ineligible for postseason play due to NCAA sanctions that came about from the impermissible benefits received by Reggie Bush. Arizona St. appeared poised to win the division before completely collapsing in November and then Utah could’ve clinched before its unfathomable loss to Colorado as a 22½-point home favorite.
Therefore, UCLA’s 5-4 ledger in league play earned it a shot at the Pac-12 title. But it’s not as if there’s a bunch of celebrating going on for the Bruins, who concluded the year by getting dealt cream cheese treatment by arch-rival USC in a 50-0 loss. That embarrassment earned Rick Neuheisel a pink slip, although he will coach against the Ducks on Friday night.
Most books are listing Oregon (10-2 straight up, 6-4-2 against the spread) as a 32-point favorite with a total of 66. As of Thursday, 5Dimes was the only book offering a money-line return on the Bruins, who had 55/1 odds to win outright.
Chip Kelly’s team dropped its season opener to LSU by a 40-27 count in Arlington at Cowboys Stadium, but it responded by ripping off nine consecutive wins to get back into the national-title hunt.
But on Nov. 19, Southern Cal came to Eugene and raced out to a huge lead before holding off a late Oregon rally for a 38-35 win as a 16-point road underdog. The Ducks bounced back to beat Oregon St. 49-21 as 28-point home favorites in last week’s renewal of the Civil War.
Junior quarterback Darron Thomas was the catalyst against the Beavers, completing 27-of-40 throws for 305 passing yards and four touchdowns without an interception. LaMichael James rushed 24 times for 142 yards and one TD. De’Anthony Thomas had 10 receptions for 86 yards and one score.
UCLA (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS) won three of its four games both SU and ATS prior to the debacle against the Trojans at The Coliseum. The Bruins posted home wins over California (31-14), Arizona St. (29-28) and Colorado (45-6).
In the win over CU, junior QB Kevin Prince enjoyed the best game of his career, connecting on 15-of-19 passes for 225 yards and four TDs without an interception. Prince also rushed for 84 yards on 10 carries, while junior RB Jonathan Franklin ran for 162 yards and one TD on just 15 totes.
For the season, Prince has passed for 1,463 yards with an 8/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s also got scrambling ability, as evidenced by 424 rushing yards and a 4.5 yards-per-carry average. Nelson Rosario is Prince’s favorite target, hauling in 55 catches for 1,008 yards and a pair of TDs.
UCLA’s Franklin has rushed for 912 yards and five TDs, averaging 6.1 YPC, while Derrick Coleman has 643 yards on the ground with 11 TDs and a 5.1 YPC average.
Oregon’s Thomas has enjoyed another banner campaign, posting a 27/5 TD-INT ratio while throwing for 2,274 yards. James has missed several games but still has 1,427 yards rushing and 14 TDs with a 7.2 YPC average.
Thomas will have an easier job finding receivers because UCLA’s best player in the secondary, senior strong safety Tony Dye, is ‘doubtful’ with a leg injury suffered at USC.
As a home favorite on Kelly’s watch, Oregon has compiled a 10-5-3 spread record since 2009. Meanwhile, UCLA has an abysmal 5-16 ATS mark in 21 road underdog situations during Neuheisel’s four-year tenure.
The ‘over’ is 8-4 overall for the Ducks, 5-2 in their home games. On the flip side, the Bruins have watched the ‘under’ go 8-4 overall, 4-2 in their road assignments.
When these long-time rivals met in Eugene last season, Oregon cruised to a 60-13 triumph as a 26½-point home ‘chalk.’ Thomas threw for 308 yards and three TDs without a pick, while James rushed for 123 yards and a pair of scores.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on FOX. Temperatures are expected to dip into the 30s as the game progresses.
The MAC Championship Game will feature No. Illinois vs. Ohio at Ford Field in Motown. Most spots are listing the Huskies as 3 ½-point favorites with a total of 69 ½. The Bobcats are available to win outright for a plus-145 payout (risk $100 to win $145).
No. Illinois (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) has won seven in a row while going 4-3 versus the number. The Huskies failed to cover the number in their last two regular-season games as double-digit home favorites.
They are led by senior QB Chandler Harnish, who threw for 2,692 yards with a 23/4 TD-INT ratio during the regular season. Harnish also rushed for an incredible 1,351 yards and 11 TDs with a 7.9 YPC average. Jasmin Hopkins is NIU’s second-leading rusher, gaining 879 yards and rushing for 15 TDs.
Ohio (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) has won five consecutive games but like NIU, it also failed to hook up its backers in its final two regular-season games. The Bobcats are underdogs for the third time this year. In the two previous spots, they went 1-1 both SU and ATS, losing 38-26 at Rutgers and winning 35-31 vs. Temple.
Frank Solich’s squad is led by sophomore signal caller Tyler Tettleton, who has thrown for 2,842 yards and has a 26/7 TD-INT ratio. Like Harnish, Tettleton can also get it done with his legs, as he’s rushed for 547 yards and eight TDs.
The MAC Championship Game is slated for a 7:00 p.m. Eastern kick on ESPN2.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Ohio and NIU have both seen the ‘over’ go 7-5 overall.
UCLA has been granted a waiver to go to a bowl game even if it loses to Oregon to fall to 6-7 overall. Mike Johnson will be the team’s interim head coach for the postseason.
If I had a Heisman ballot
1-Robert Griffin III (Baylor)
2-Andrew Luck (Stanford)
3-Trent Richardson (Alabama)
4-Matt Barkley (USC)
5-Case Keenum (Houston)
Just as I tweeted late Wednesday night, pinch yourself, Wazzu fan. What a hire by the Cougars! The only way another school will make a better off-season hire is if UCLA can get Chris Petersen to leave Boise St. If Petersen is ever going to jump (and he’s given no indication that he will anytime soon), maybe now is the time with Kellen Moore departing?
Coach of the Year candidates
1-Les Miles (LSU)
2-David Shaw (Stanford)
3-Mike Gundy (Oklahoma St.)
4-Bill Snyder (Kansas St.)
5-Brady Hoke (Michigan)
6-Art Briles (Baylor)
7-Kevin Sumlin (Houston)
8-Hugh Freeze (Arkansas St.)
9-Nick Saban (Alabama)
10-James Franklin (Vanderbilt)
Pac-12 Championship Game: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks (-31.5, 66)
THE STORY: A Rose Bowl berth is on the line when Oregon hosts UCLA in Friday’s inaugural Pac-12 Championship.
The No. 7 Ducks beat out Stanford for the North crown while UCLA squeaked in as the South’s representative. The division title didn’t prevent Rick Neuheisel from losing his job as UCLA athletic director Dan Guerrero announced his firing two days after Saturday’s horrific 50-0 loss to USC.
The Trojans also spoiled Oregon’s season, beating the Ducks 38-35 on Nov. 19 to knock Oregon out of the national championship picture. The winner meets the Big Ten champ (either Wisconsin or Michigan State) in the Rose Bowl.
LINE: Oregon opened at -30.5 and has been bet up to 31.5-point favorite, with a couple -32 showing up briefly. The total has come up from 65.5 to 66 points.
AROUND OREGON (10-2, 8-1 Pac-12 North, 6-4 ATS): The Ducks have scored 551 points - second-most in school history behind last season’s 611.
First-team All-Pac-12 running back LaMichael James leads the nation in rushing at 142.7 yards per game and ranks fourth in conference history with 4,704 yards. He needs 107 yards to pass USC’s Marcus Allen.
Junior quarterback Darron Thomas has 27 touchdown passes against just five interceptions. Thomas has 60 career TD passes, two behind the school record held by Danny O’Neil (1991-94).
Oregon has three first-team all-conference defensive players in junior defensive end Dion Jordan (team-high 12 tackles for loss), senior linebacker Josh Kaddu (tied with Jordan for the sack leadership with 6.5) and senior safety Eddie Pleasant (team-best three interceptions).
ABOUT UCLA (6-6, 5-4 Pac-12 South, 4-8 ATS): Neuheisel is 21-28 in four seasons entering his final game. He will not coach UCLA in a bowl game if it qualifies.
Senior receiver Nelson Rosario has 1,008 receiving yards and ranks fifth in school history with 2,209 yards. Junior middle linebacker Patrick Larimore has a team-best 75 tackles.
The Bruins didn’t have a single offensive or defensive player named to the all-conference first or second team. Derrick Coleman was a second-teamer as a special teams standout.
TRENDS:
* Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
* Bruins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Bruins are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.
* Ducks are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. UCLA leads the series 39-25 but the Ducks have won nine of the last 11 meetings, including 60-13 in 2010.
2. Oregon running back De’Anthony Thomas was Pac-12 co-Offensive Freshman of the Year with 1,908 all-purpose yards and 16 touchdowns.
3. UCLA last won a conference title in 1998 when it went 10-2, 8-0 under Bob Toledo.
PREDICTION: Oregon 58, UCLA 6 – This will get ugly early and the Ducks can pick and choose the winning margin.
NCAAF Week 14
Ohio/Northern Illinois combined to go 0-4 in MAC title games last six years; one of these teams is going to get monkey off back. Bobcats won both games vs Northern last five years, upsetting Huskies 35-23 as a 16-point road dog in 2006, beating them 38-31 (even) in '09. Ohio won its last five games, Northern Illinois won its last seven, with four of last five wins by six or less points, so two hot teams here; Huskies allowed 30+ points in three of their last five games, but won 'em all, including one games by a 63-60 score. Four of last five MAC title games stayed under total; single digit favorites are 3-1 against the spread in this game.
UCLA is 6-6, already fired Neuheisel; their last five losses are by 29-26-36-25-50 points; they're 3-6 as an underdog this year. Oregon won last four games over UCLA by average score of 36-17, with Ducks crushing UCLA 60-13 LY, outgaining Bruins 583-290. Oregon's two losses were to LSU (40-27), USC (38-35); UCLA scored total of 37 points in their last four road games. Ducks are 5-3-1 as a favorite this year, going 0-3-1 vs spread in last four home games. Pac-12 faves of more than 20 points are 13-4-1 vs spread this season, 8-3-1 at home. UCLA can go to bowl even if they lose this game and finish 6-7, but will anyone want them?
Championship Week NCAA-F Trends & Angles
Insiderangles.com
Well, this is Championship Week in NCAA Football, so we will look at all the conference championship games from a trend perspective. Note that all trends included within the championship games are based on post-season records (conference championships and bowl games) since the 2000 season.
MAC Championship
Northern Illinois (-3½ ) vs. Ohio: There is not too much to go on here, since MAC teams have gone a dismal 19-28-2 ATS in the post-season since 2000, and they have been just as bad as favorites (9-12-1 ATS) as they have as underdogs (9-16-1). One tiny edge for Northern Illinois is that MAC favorites between -3 and -6½ are 5-3-1, 62.6 percent ATS. With not much else to go on, we will make Northern Illinois a weak play. Northern Illinois -3½
Pac-12 Championship
Oregon (-31½ ) vs. UCLA: Now we get that Oregon is one of the best teams in the country while UCLA would probably be the worst BCS team in history if it pulls off this monumental upset, and the Bruins are playing for a fired, lame duck coach. All of that said though, Pac-12 underdogs are 22-10-1, 68.8 percent ATS during the post season while Pac-12 favorites are only 22-24 ATS. Double-digit Pac-12 underdogs are 4-3 ATS with the last two covering easily, as Washington upset Nebraska outright last season and Stanford lost by only four points to Oklahoma in 2010. Tread lightly as the The Trends & Angles play says to take UCLA +31½