Tennessee vs. N.C. St.
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Tennessee returns to the Georgia Dome this Friday night for the first time since getting hammered 37-14 by Virginia Tech in the 2009 Chick-fil-A Bowl on New Year’s Eve. The Volunteers are hoping for much different results when they take on North Carolina St. in a crucial season opener for both teams.
As of Monday, most betting shops had UT listed as a 3½-point favorite with a total of 53. Gamblers can take the Wolfpack to win outright for a plus-150 payout (risk $100 to win $150).
Derek Dooley is on the hot seat going into his third campaign in Knoxville. Whether that’s fair or not is irrelevant because it’s undoubtedly a fact. I went into this topic at great length earlier this summer.
Dooley announced the dismissal of starting junior wide receiver Da’Rick Rogers last Friday. Rogers, who had reportedly been a major headache for Dooley and his staff for an extended period of time, had a team-high 67 receptions for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns last season.
Nevertheless, some feel as if this is an addition-by-subtraction situation. That’s because the Vols have junior WR Justin Hunter back in the mix. Hunter was poised for a breakout campaign last year before tearing his ACL in the first half of a Week 3 game at Florida.
In wins over Montana and Cincinnati and early on against the Gators, Hunter hauled in 17 catches for 314 yards and a pair of TDs. By all accounts, he’s back to 100 percent which means he’s going to be one of the SEC’s top wideouts. Also, the top recruit in UT’s 2012 class, juco transfer Cordarrelle Patterson, has been ‘as advertised’ so far.
Hunter’s injury wasn’t the only one to impact UT’s disappointing 5-7 record last year. QB Tyler Bray injured his thumb in a 20-12 home loss to Georgia and then missed five consecutive contests.
Bray finished 2011 with 17 TD passes compared to only six interceptions. For his career, he has a 35/16 TD-INT ratio.
The junior signal caller should have more time to throw this season. A young and inexperienced offensive line struggled mightily in 2011 but all five starters return, and this is now a unit with three juniors and a senior.
North Carolina St. is my sleeper team in the ACC (FSU better be on upset alert Oct. 6!). While Russell Wilson was lighting it up for Wisconsin last year, Mike Glennon was enjoying plenty of success in Raleigh, too. In other words, Wilson’s exit worked out for everybody.
Glennon went 8-5 in the first 13 starts of his career, throwing for 3,054 yards with a 31/12 TD-INT ratio. The offense has seven starters returning, including RB James Washington, who rushed for 897 yards and seven TDs last year. The offensive line is a veteran group with 112 career starts between them.
Glennon’s favorite target is expected to be senior WR Tobais Palmer, who had 37 catches for 496 yards and five TDs in 2011. Bryan Underwood (16 catches, 226 yards and 2 TDs LY) was expected to be one of the three starting WRs, but he’s out indefinitely with a knee injury.
N.C. St. has six starters back on a defense that surrendered 24.7 points per game. Senior safety Earl Wolff is the best of the bunch, coming off a season with 113 tackles and three interceptions.
The Vols have nine starters back on a defensive unit that gave up 22.6 PPG in 2011.
Kick-off in Atlanta on Friday is slated for 7:30 p.m. Eastern. ESPNU will provide television coverage.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Clemson second-string RB Mike Bellamy has been suspended for the entire season for academics. The sophomore rushed for three TDs and averaged 6.0 yards per carry on 57 totes as a true freshman in 2011.
Boise St. starting WR Geraldo Boldewijn has been suspended for the first four games of the year and won’t play Friday night in East Lansing. Also, Chris Petersen’s team will be without starting center Cory Yriarte, who is done for the season with a knee injury. Without those two starters, the Broncos have just five returning starters (3 on offense, 2 on defense). They are seven-point underdogs at Michigan St. ESPN will have television coverage of this game at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
Ohio, which opens the year Saturday at Penn St. in a very winnable game, has lost second-team All-MAC performer Travis Carrie for an indefinite period of time (possibly the season). The senior CB had 49 tackles, 13 passes broken up and four interceptions in 2011.
Texas A&M has suspended starting safety Howard Matthews and starting LB Steve Jenkins (61 tackles LY) for Thursday’s opener at La. Tech.
Oklahoma has lost a pair of starting offensive linemen for the season, senior center Ben Habern (retired due to shoulder and neck issues) and senior OG Tyler Evans (torn ACL). The Sooners open Saturday at UTEP as 31-point favorites.
CFB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Tennessee vs N.C. State
Wolfpack which ended the 2011 campaign on a 3-0 SU/ATS run including a 31-24 victory over Louisville in the Belk Bowl open the season at the Georgia Dome in a battle with Tennessee Volunteers. Pack off an 8-5 campaign (6-6-1 ATS) scoring 28.2 points/game have seven offensive starters returning, including QB Mike Glennon who aired out 3054 yards, 31 TD's and RB James Washington rushing for 897 yards, seven TDs. Wolfpack also have six starters back on the defensive side that surrendered 24.7 per contest on 354.9 total yards. As for Tennessee, the Volunteers posting a 5-7 mark (4-6-2 ATS) return 18 starters that racked up 333.9 yards/game (20.3 PPG) while allowing 338.6 per game (22.6 PPG). Tennessee with it's entire offensive line back have caught the betting markets attention as Vols are 3.0 point favorites to knock off Wolfpack despite recent struggles against ACC opponents (4-1, 0-5 ATS). N.C. State might be worth a second look, Pack are on a money grabbing 19-7-2 ATS stretch as an underdog and are on a smart 6-2 ATS run in non-conference games.
Boise State vs Michigan State
Michigan State and Boise State are both off big seasons. Michigan State went 11-3 (10-4 ATS) including a 33-30 victory over Georgia in the Outback Bowl. Boise State finishing it's campaign with a 56-24 rout of Arizona State in the Las Vegas Bowl ended 12-1 (5-8 ATS). An encore could prove difficult as each team lost star quarterbacks. Andrew Maxwell leads the Spartan offense after serving as Kirk Cousins' backup the last two years. Maxwell performed well in limited duty going 18 for 26 for 171 yards, one TD in relief of Cousins' during blowouts. Spartans also losing receivers Cunningham, Martin, Nichol makes it tough for the new leader. On a positive note, Spartans return the bulk of it's defensive unit that surrendered 277.4 total yards allowing a messily 18.4 points/game. On the other side, Joe Southwick replaces Kellen Moore who guided Broncos to an astounding 50-3 (30-19-2 ATS) mark averaging 42.3 points/game. Southwick, connected on 40 of 54 for 400 yards, two TDs as backup the past two seasons. But, unlike Maxwell, Southwick does have the benefit of a solid returning receiving corps. As for Broncos' defense, it was hit hard by key departures losing four linemen, three linebackers. Spartans on a smart 14-2 (10-6 ATS) run at home, 8-0 (4-2 ATS) stretch in home openers have been pegged 6.5 point favorites by the betting market against a Boise State squad that is 6-0 (3-0 ATS) in season opener's under coach Petersen.
Boise State at Michigan State: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Boise State Broncos at Michigan State Spartans (-7, 46.5)
Thirteenth-ranked Michigan State and No. 22 Boise State both feature new starting quarterbacks as they attempt to continue their winning ways in Friday's high-powered season-opening contest.
The Spartans are coming off back-to-back 11-win campaigns but no longer have three-year starter Kirk Cousins, the most prolific passer (9,131 yards, 66 touchdowns) in school history. Andrew Maxwell is Michigan State’s new starter.
Boise State’s Joe Southwick has even bigger shoes to fill in replacing Kellen Moore, who threw 142 career touchdowns and finished his career as the winningest quarterback (50-3) in NCAA history.
The Broncos are playing a high-profile opener for the fourth straight season, having defeated Oregon (2009), Virginia Tech (2010) and Georgia (2011) the past three years.
LINE: Michigan State -7. Oddsmakers opened MSU as a touchdown favorite and that spread has fallen to 6.5. The total opened at 47 and has dropped half a point.
ABOUT BOISE STATE (2011: 12-1, 6-1 Mountain West): Southwick is a nimble junior who has attempted 54 career passes. The Broncos also have to replace all-everything running back Doug Martin and will call on sixth-year senior D.J. Harper, who has suffered two season-ending knee injuries during his career. Sophomore Matt Miller (62 catches last season) is the top receiver. The Broncos are in transition on defense after losing several key players. Senior cornerbacks Jamar Taylor and Jerrell Gavins and senior weak-side linebacker J.C. Percy are the top defenders.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (2011: 11-3, 7-1 Big Ten): Maxwell is a strong-armed junior who has attempted only 51 career passes. Junior running back Le’Veon Bell rushed for 948 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. Junior receiver Bennie Fowler is healthy after missing most of last season with a foot injury. The Spartans are stacked on defense after having the nation’s sixth-best unit a year ago. Junior outside linebacker Denicos Allen had 11 sacks last season and junior middle linebacker Max Bullough had a team-best 89 tackles. Junior William Gholston (five sacks) is rated as one of the nation’s top defensive ends, and a strong secondary is led senior cornerback Johnny Adams (eight career interceptions) and hard-hitting junior strong safety Isaiah Lewis (four interceptions in 2011).
TRENDS:
* Broncos are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games.
* Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 7-3-1 in Broncos' last 11 non-conference games.
* Over is 9-3 in Spartans' last 12 non-conference games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Boise State and Michigan State have never met – the Broncos lost to Wisconsin in 1997 in their lone game against a Big Ten school and the Spartans are 7-2 against current members of the Mountain West.
2. The Spartans have won 11 consecutive home openers since falling to Colorado State in 1998.
3. The Broncos are 23-2 under coach Chris Petersen when having 10 or more days to prepare for an opponent.
San Jose State at Stanford: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Cardinal (-25.5, 50.5)
The Andrew Luck era is over and No. 18 Stanford moves on with new quarterback Josh Nunes as it opens the season by hosting nearby neighbor San Jose State on Friday.
The Cardinal were national title contenders the past two seasons with Luck lighting up scoreboards – Stanford scored a school-record 561 points last season – and Nunes is hoping to keep the victories coming in coach David Shaw’s second season at the helm.
San Jose State is optimistically hoping to reach a bowl game for the first time since 2006 in its final season in the watered-down Western Athletic Conference. But ranked teams have long posted a problem for the Spartans, who have lost 19 consecutive games to ranked opponents since upsetting LaDainian Tomlinson and No. 9 TCU in 2000. Stanford won last season’s meeting 57-3.
LINE: Stanford -25.5. Oddsmakers have posted the Cardinal as 25-25.5-point favorites with the total dropping from 53.5 to 50.5.
ABOUT SAN JOSE STATE (2011: 5-7, 3-4 WAC): Junior college transfer David Fales is the starting quarterback and he has potent weapons in junior receiver Noel Grigsby and senior tight end Ryan Otten (52 catches). Grigsby set a school-record with 89 receptions, but had only two touchdowns. Senior De'Leon Eskridge, a transfer from Minnesota, is the main running back. Senior defensive end Travis Johnson (9.5 sacks last season) and junior linebacker Keith Smith (220 tackles the past two seasons) lead a suspect defense.
ABOUT STANFORD (2011: 11-2, 8-1 Pac-12): Nunes edged sophomore Brett Nottingham for the starting job in a battle that lasted until last week. Senior running back Stepfan Taylor is looking for his third consecutive 1,000-yard campaign after rushing for 1,330 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. Junior tight end Levine Toilolo (six touchdown catches in 2011) is a solid target and sophomore receiver Ty Montgomery appears ready to step up. Stanford is loaded on defense with senior outside linebacker Chase Thomas (17.5 tackles for losses) leading the way. Senior inside linebacker Shayne Skov is back after suffering a season-ending knee injury last season. Senior defensive end Ben Gardner (4.5 sacks) is the top lineman.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Home team is 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Spartans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven meetings in Stanford.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Stanford has won the last four meetings since suffering a humbling 35-34 loss to the Spartans in 2006. The Cardinal lead the series 50-14-1.
2. The Cardinal have won 23 of their last 26 home games.
3. San Jose State tied for the national lead by recovering 20 fumbles last season and its 33 turnovers forced tied for fourth nationally.
NCAAF Week 1 Preview
Since 2008, NC State is 19-9-1 vs spread as an underdog; they've got a senior QB making his 14th career start and have four starters back on the OL, but in their only two games vs SEC foes last four years, Wolfpack lost 34-0/7-3 to South Carolina. Tennessee has nine starters back on both ides of ball after leading WR Rogers was booted; they're 8-3 vs spread as a favorite under Dooley, but since '03, Vols are just 2-6 SU on a neutral field. Junior QB Bray has 12 career starts; the entire OL returned intact. Over last decade, Wolfpack is 7-0 v spread on neutral fields.
Boise State was decimated by graduation, losing 15 of 22 starters, so this is tough opener for them, at Michigan State squad that is 11-5 vs spread as a favorite last two years, 7-5 at home (after being 14-23-1 as favorite at home from '02-'09). Spartans have eight starters back on defense, only five on offense, but four of those five are on OL. Peterson is 73-6 as HC at Boise; Broncos are 15-5 vs spread in non-league games since '08, 3-1 as an underdog under Peterson-- this is first time they've been underdog in any game since Fiesta Bowl vs TCU three years ago (lost 17-10 +3).
San Jose State lost seven of last eight games vs Stanford, with six of the seven losses by 21+ points; Cardinal crushed San Jose 57-3 LY (-29.5). Over last four series games, Spartans ran ball 120 times for 137 yards, a figure that includes sacks. San Jose is 8-5 as a road dog under MacIntyre, who improved team from 1-12 to 5-7 LY; he lost three starters from his OL and is breaking in a JC QB. Stanford is breaking in new QB and two new starters on OL; they're 14-7 as a home favorite the last four years. Over last three seasons, Cardinals is 22-9 vs spread as a favorite.
Armidillosports.com
College Football Betting Preview: Tennessee vs. NC State
By Alatex Sports
Sportsmemo.com
Tennessee fans are looking for some progress in year three of the Derek Dooley era and with 18 starters back from a 5-7 team, they should get their wish. Whether the Vols win enough games to keep Dooley off the hot seat remains to be seen, however. Tennessee does have a chance to go to a nice bowl game if they can stay healthy, most notably quarterback Tyler Bray who is primed for a big showing. In just 12 starts spanning two seasons, Bray has thrown 35 TDs and 16 INTs. A full season will have him near 30 TD passes and 3,000 yards and that should result in eight or nine wins for this team. Justin Hunter, who returns from injury, is poised to be the recipient of most of Bray’s passes. His counterpart, Da’Rick Rogers, was kicked out of school last week, but a healthy Hunter will more than make up for the loss of Rogers. I expect Tennessee to score some points this year, but some insiders are worried about the defense, especially in the season opener against a veteran NC State team. Wolfpack quarterback Mike Glennon tossed for 3,500 yards and 31 TDs in 2011, and he has six other starters back on offense. They should be able to move the ball against the Tennessee defense and keep the pressure on the Vols’ offense to keep up. NC State has six starters back on defense, and Tom O’Brien thinks this is his best team in his five years at the school. Should be an exciting game, and I lean towards the underdog at +3.5.