Boise St. at Toledo
By Brian Edwards
After dealing out woodshed treatment to Georgia in Atlanta, Boise State (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) had an open date in Week 2. The Broncos will get back to work Friday night when they go on the road again to take on Toledo at the Glass Bowl.
Most betting shops opened Chris Petersen’s team as a 17-point favorite Sunday night. However, the number was up to 18 or 18½ by Monday afternoon. Then on Tuesday, most spots adjusted BSU to a 20-point ‘chalk.’ The total was in the 59-60 range Thursday morning, while Toledo (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) was listed at plus-700 to win outright (risk $100 to win $700).
Kellen Moore was the catalyst for Boise St. in its 35-21 season-opening win over UGA, completing 28-of-34 passes for 261 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Without former star WRs Austin Pettis and Titus Young, Moore spread the wealth around by connecting with five different targets three times or more.
UGA drew first blood on an 80-yard touchdown run, but BSU responded by scoring 28 unanswered points. While Moore shredded the Dawgs’ secondary, Boise St.’s defense looked like an SEC-type unit by locking down Aaron Murray and Co. (BSU’s ‘D’ looks even better after Georgia put up 42 points against South Carolina this past weekend.)
Georgia would cut the deficit to 14 twice at 28-14 and 35-21, but it never really got back into the game. When the final gun sounded, Boise St. had gone into enemy territory across the country to pick up a huge win for a second straight season opener.
Tim Beckman’s team won its lid-lifter by trouncing New Hampshire 58-22 as a 10½-point home favorite. Junior quarterback Austin Dantin, a product of Tallahassee Leon High School’s storied high-school program, completed 15-of-21 throws for 161 yards and three TDs without a pick. Senior RB Adonis Thomas added 115 yards and one TD rushing on just nine carries.
In Week 2, Toledo gave Ohio St. fits for 60 minutes at The Horseshoe. The Rockets may have pulled the outright upset if not for giving up a 69-yard punt return for a TD with only 46 seconds left in the first half. The Buckeyes eventually captured a 27-22 win, but they never threatened to cover the number as 17½-point home favorites.
Dantin, who split time under center with sophomore Terrance Owens, played well once again. He connected on 14-of-26 passes for 155 yards and one TD without an interception. Thomas was limited to 47 rushing yards on 14 carries, but he found paydirt on a four-yard TD run that gave his team a 22-21 advantage early in the third quarter.
Toledo out-yarded OSU 338-304 but couldn’t muster any offense in the final stanza.
This will be the Rockets’ fourth game as home underdogs during Beckman’s three-year tenure. They are 2-1 ATS in the three previous situations, beating Colorado and No. Illinois outright in 2009. Dating back to 2001, Toledo is 10-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Boise St. owns a 17-10 spread record as a road favorite under Petersen, going 16-6 versus the number in such spots since 2007. The Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as double-digit road favorites.
Kick-off is slated for Friday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Also on Friday, UConn will play host to Iowa St. on ESPN2 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. The Huskies are looking to bounce back from a 24-21 loss at Vandy, while the Cyclones might be in a letdown situation after beating arch-rival Iowa 44-41 in overtime.
Florida owns an 18-9 spread record as a home favorite since 2007. The Gators, as of Wednesday night, were listed as 9½-point favorites for their SEC opener Saturday vs. Tennessee.
UT quarterback Tyler Bray, fresh off a career-high 405 passing yards in a 45-23 win over Cincinnati, will try to become the first Vol QB not named Casey Clausen to win at The Swamp since the early 1970s. Bray had four TD passes and one TD rushing against the Bearcats.
After not being able to go at Wednesday’s practice, Boston College star RB Montel Harris was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ for Saturday’s game vs. Duke. Harris, who rushed for 1,243 yards and eight TDs in 2010, has missed the Eagles’ first two games. They are 0-2 after losing to Northwestern at home before getting thumped last week at UCF.
Ole Miss RB Brandon Bolden has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for Saturday’s game against unbeaten Vanderbilt in Nashville. Bolden sat out last week’s win over Southern Illinois after suffering a leg injury in a 14-13 home loss to BYU in the season opener. Bolden had 14 TDs rushing and a 6.0 yards-per-carry average last year. The Rebels are 1½-point road favorites against the Commodores.
Boise State at Toledo: What Bettors Need to Know
Boise State Broncos at Toledo Rockets (+20, 59.5)
THE STORY: Boise State wouldn’t figure to have a lot of trouble with Toledo but Ohio State certainly didn’t expect to either. The No. 4 Broncos insist they won’t be taking the Rockets lightly after Toledo nearly upset the Buckeyes before falling 27-22 last Saturday. Boise State is the highest-ranked team to ever visit Toledo’s Glass Bowl. The Broncos haven’t played in 13 days since defeating Georgia in their nationally-televised opening contest. Boise State routed Toledo 57-14 last season in the only previous meeting between the two schools.
TV: ESPN.
LINE MOVES: This spread opened with BSU at -17 and money on the Broncos has driven the spread as high as -20. The total has also moved, going from its opening post of 58.5 points to 59.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
ABOUT TOLEDO (1-1): The Rockets enter the contest with a lot of confidence after slugging it out with powerful Ohio State. Receiver Eric Page caught 12 passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns against Ohio State and has 17 receptions in two games. The Rockets use a two-quarterback system with Austin Dantin (316 yards, four touchdowns) and Terrance Owens (259 yards, three touchdowns) both faring well.
Toledo also was impressive defensively, holding the Buckeyes to 301 yards. Standout linebacker Dan Molls (leg) will likely miss his second straight game and fellow linebacker Robert Bell (ribs) is also ailing.
The previous highest-ranked team to visit Toledo was No. 9 Pittsburgh in 2003. The Rockets upset the Panthers 35-31.
ABOUT BOISE STATE (1-0): The Broncos forced six three-and-outs in their victory over Georgia. Quarterback Kellen Moore threw three touchdown passes and has thrown multiple touchdowns in 34 of 41 career games. Moore is 39-2 as a starter and is six wins away from matching the career victories record held by former Texas star Colt McCoy.
Defensive end Shea McClellin scored on a 36-yard interception against Toledo last season. Starting safety Cedric Febis was expected to miss his second straight game as one of three Dutch players in Boise State’s program having their eligibility investigated by the NCAA.But Febis was re-instated by the NCAA on Thursday.
EXTRA POINTS
1. The Broncos were officially placed on NCAA probation Tuesday. The penalties included the loss of nine scholarships over a three-year span.
2. Toledo’s Page had 11 receptions for 120 yards in last year’s contest against Boise State.
3. Boise State is 17-2 when playing on Fridays.
PREDICTION: Boise State 45, Toledo 17 – The Broncos are well rested and typically well prepared and it’s bad timing for the Rockets to face the Broncos six days after meeting Ohio State.
NCAAF Preview
Boise State (-38) crushed Toledo 57-14 on blue turf LY, with 500-287 edge in yardage and +5 turnover ratio. Broncos had last week off after a convincing win over Georgia in Atlanta- second longroad trip already for team led by senior QB Moore (41st career start). Rockets lost 27-22 at Ohio State last week, outgaining OSU 338-311 but giving up a PR for a TD. Toledo has nine starters back on both sides of ball- they were just 3-16 on 3rd down last week. Rockets are 10-4 as a home dog since 2001.
2-0 Iowa State needed last-minute score to nip I-AA Northern Iowa in its opener 20-19; UNI outgained State 385-328, but then Cyclones beat rival Iowa 44-41 in OT last week 44-41, converting 13-20 on 3rd down and surviving -2 turnover ratio. UConn lost 24-21 at Vandy last week, scoring only one offensive TD- they were outgained 259-193. Both QBs are inexperienced; Huskies were just 11-29 passing last week, converting on only 3 of 15 third down plays.