TCU at Baylor Preview
By Brian Edwards
TCU has posted double-digit win totals in seven of the last nine seasons and has won 11 games or more in six of those years. Coming off a perfect 13-0 season that was capped by a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin, the Horned Frogs will embark on their farewell campaign in the Mountain West Conference when they open 2011 at Baylor on Friday night.
As of Thursday morning, most betting shops were listing Gary Patterson’s team as a 4½-point favorite with a total of 56. Gamblers can take Baylor to win outright for a plus-175 payout (risk $100 to win $175).
TCU returns just three starters on offense and five on defense. Andy Dalton, a first-round selection of the Cincinnati Bengals who won a school-record 42 games, is one of the eight offensive starters that must be replaced.
That job falls to sophomore quarterback Casey Pachall, who saw limited playing time as a redshirt freshman. He ran for a pair of touchdowns and passed for another, but he has only nine career pass attempts.
Paschall’s job will be made easier by the return of junior RB Ed Wesley, who ran for 1,078 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 yards per carry last year. Paschall also has one of the MWC’s best WRs in Josh Boyce, who garnered first-team freshman All-American honors by catching 34 balls for 646 yards and six TDs in 2010.
But if TCU is going to go to a third straight BCS bowl game, it will be about the defense that’s been one of the country’s most ferocious for six years running. During this stretch, the Horned Frogs have never given up more than 18.7 points per game in a season. From 2008-2010, they surrendered the following PPG averages: 11.3, 12.8 and 12.0.
TCU has two of the nation’s premier LBs in senior Tank Carder and junior Tanner Brock. Carder was named first-team All American last year when he had six tackles for losses and 3.5 sacks. Brock led the Horned Frogs in tackles with 106 stops on his way to earning third-team All-American honors.
This LB duo will have its hands full with Baylor junior QB Robert Griffin, who is quietly enjoying a dazzling career in Waco. Griffin led the Bears to their first bowl game since 1994 last season, throwing for 3,501 yards with a 22/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He is equally effective with his legs, rushing for 635 yards and eight TDs in 2010.
Griffin burst on the scene as a true freshman in ’08, rushing for 843 yards and 13 TDs while passing for 2,091 yards with a 15/3 TD-INT ratio. Thanks to Griffin’s presence, expectations at Baylor were high in ’09, but that optimism went out the window in Week 3 when he tore his ACL.
With Griffin back under center, Art Briles’ team jumped out to a 7-2 start last season, only to drop its last four games including a 38-14 loss to Illinois in the Texas Bowl. Baylor beat only one team with a winning record, capturing a 47-42 home win over a Kansas State squad that finished 7-6.
The Bears return eight starters on offense and five on defense. Therefore, they once again appear to be candidates for high-scoring games galore.
However, Griffin will have to adapt to life without two of his best weapons. RB Jay Finley completed his eligibility by rushing for 1,218 yards and 12 TDs last season. WR Josh Gordon is also gone after leaving the program two weeks ago.
Gordon, who had 42 receptions for 714 yards and seven TDs in 2010, was suspended indefinitely in late July. Baylor does return Griffin’s favorite target, Kendall Wright, who is coming off a 78-catch campaign. Wright had 952 receiving yards and seven TD receptions.
Baylor saw the ‘over’ finish 2010 on a 7-2 run. The Bears gave up 30.5 PPG and allowed 42 points or more in five of their last seven regular-season games.
TCU was one of those teams in Week 3, cruising to a 45-10 win as a 21-point home ‘chalk.’ The Horned Frogs raced out to a 35-3 lead by intermission and were never threatened. Dalton completed 21-of-23 passes for 267 yards and two TDs without being intercepted. Wesley rushed for 165 yards and a pair of scores on 19 carries.
TCU’s defense wouldn’t let Griffin get loose, limiting him to 21 rushing yards on 14 attempts. Griffin connected on 16-of-28 throws for 164 yards and a TD with no interceptions.
Since the Southwestern Conference disbanded in 1996, these old-school rivals have met only three times. TCU has won all three games both straight up and against the spread with the ‘under’ cashing in each instance.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Briles is trying to fix Baylor’s defense with new coordinator Phil Bennett, the former SMU head coach who was the DC at Pitt the last three years.
Griffin has a 41/11 TD/INT ratio and 23 rushing TDs in his career.
Since 2005, TCU has a 66-11 straight-up record. The Horned Frogs have won 12 of 14 head-to-head meetings against BCS schools during that stretch.
During Briles’ three seasons at Baylor, the Bears are only 2-6 ATS as home underdogs.
TCU is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games as a road favorite from 2008-2010.
Tulsa WR Damaris Johnson has been suspended indefinitely after being charged with embezzlement on Wednesday. Johnson, the NCAA’s career leader in all-purpose yardage, has basically ‘pulled a Peter Warrick’ for buying loads of clothing merchandise at an extremely reduced price from a girlfriend at a local store. The Golden Hurricane was a 21½-point underdog for its Week 1 game at Oklahoma, but the number has now been adjusted to 25.
vegasinsider.com.
NCAAF Week 1
TCU won its last three games vs Baylor by combined score of 89-17; Frogs (-21) outrushed Baylor 291-99 in LY’s 45-10 beatdown in Fort Worth, but TCU graduated 14 of 22 starters, has new QB and only one returning starter on OL. TCU is 10-5 as road favorite last three years, 8-10 in non-league games last four years. Baylor has excellent QB in junior Griffin III, who already has 23 career starts; Bears are just 4-15 as a home dog since ’05 (17-28 vs spread in last 45 games as dog overall). Baylor has 9 starters back on offense, including four on OL. Dangerous game for TCU.
TCU Begins Season On Road At Baylor
By: Jeff Grant
The 2011 college football season has finally arrived and Friday’s featured matchup is the TCU Horned Frogs taking on the Baylor Bears. Kickoff in Waco, TX, is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. (ET) in front of a nationally-televised audience on ESPN.
Starting on the road is nothing new for Texas Christian, who is ranked 18th in the Don Best Oddsmaker Poll. This will be the the ninth time in 11 seasons that head coach Gary Patterson's has kicked the season off away from Forth Worth.
In last year’s meeting, TCU registered a 45-10 win as 21-point home favorites. Due to the change in venue, the betting odds have significantly dropped for the rematch, as the Horned Frogs are currently listed as 6-point road favorites and the total stands at 56.
Bettors will be interested in playing the Horned Frogs due to their 7-3 mark against the spread as a road favorite the past two years.
Opponents have been thoroughly dominated by the Frogs over the years, with 16 of their last 20 victories by at least 27 points. Since the start of the 2008 campaign, TCU has posted a 36-3 record, a mark that trails only Boise State nationally (38-2).
A move to the Mountain West Conference, if only for a year, will allow the two-winningest programs over that span to meet up on Nov. 12 on the blue carpet in Boise, ID. Sophomore quarterback Casey Pachall should be experienced enough to handle the atmosphere at that point of the season, taking over under center for NFL-draftee Andy Dalton.
Baylor is no longer one of the doormats of the Big 12 Conference, snapping a 16-year bowl drought with a 38-14 loss to the Illinois Fighting Illini in the Texas Bowl last December. Optimism around campus is warranted due to a highly-balanced offense that attempted 471 passes and ran the ball 468 times in 2010.
Opposing defenses will find it difficult to prepare for this team due to a dual-threat quarterback on the other side. Junior Robert Griffin III is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, throwing for a school-record 3,501 yards a year ago while also gaining 635 yards on the ground.
He has a major weapon on the outside in Biletnikoff Award candidate Kendall Wright, who begins the year with 2,341 receiving yards, third most in school history.
Conference insiders are also high on an offensive line that returns five members with starting experience and is physically imposing. The group averages a Big 12-leading 317 pounds and will be a strength for the team all season long.
The Bears will be looking to snap a string of five consecutive losses as a home underdog of 3½ to 10 points, while the Horned Frogs have covered four straight in the series overall.
Weather forecasts suggest game-time temperatures at Floyd Casey Stadium near the century mark and a 5-10 mph breeze out of the southeast.
TCU at Baylor: What Bettors Need to Know
TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears (+4.5, 55.5)
THE STORY: No. 15 TCU finished last season a perfect 13-0 and has won 27 of its last 28 games dating back to 2008 but return just eight total starters. Baylor is coming off its first winning season since joining the Big 12 and first bowl appearance since 1994.
The Horned Frogs have dominated this series of late, winning the last three meetings against Baylor by a combined score of 89-17.
ABOUT TCU (2010: 13-0, 8-0 Mountain West): This is the Horned Frogs’ final season in the Mountain West before they depart for the Big East in 2012. Coach Gary Patterson lost record-setting quarterback Andy Dalton to the NFL and will ask sophomore Casey Pachall to fill his shoes. Linebacker Tank Carder — the Mountain West’s 2010 Defensive Player of the Year — should lead another stout TCU defense.
ABOUT BAYLOR (2010: 7-6, 4-4 Big 12): The Bears’ most successful season since the early 1990s ended sourly with a four-game losing streak and blowout loss to Illinois in the Texas Bowl. Junior quarterback Robert Griffin is Baylor’s do-everything star, and he has plenty of weapons at receiver in Kendall Wright, Josh Gordon and Terrance Williams. Coach Art Briles brought in highly regarded defensive coordinator Phil Bennett to fix a defense that gave up 30.5 points per game in 2010.
EXTRA POINTS
1. TCU has finished No. 1 in the FBS in total defense each of the past three years and in five of the last 11 seasons.
2. The Horned Frogs haven’t given up more than 19 points per game since 2004.
3. Baylor returns five players who caught at least 40 passes in 2010.
TRENDS
TCU is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against Baylor but just 1-5 ATS in its last six nonconference games.
Baylor is 18-38 ATS in its last 56 games as a home underdog.
The under is 5-0 in Baylor's last five nonconference games.
LINE MOVES
Oddsmakers opened with the Horned Frogs giving 6 to 6.5 points to the hosting Bears. But bettors have come in on Baylor with the line dropping all the way to 4.5. This is kind of a dead number, so you could see spread drop another half or full point before kickoff if the books don't get more action on TCU. The total seems to be holding steady between 55 and 56.
PREDICTION: TCU 20, Baylor 14 -- The Bears should be able to keep this one closer than in years past, but the Horned Frogs’ defense will be strong enough to pull out a tight victory.