Central Florida In Friday Matchup At BYU Cougars
By: Adam Markowitz
Both the UCF Knights and BYU Cougars thought that they were BCS-caliber teams this season. Neither one will be crashing the BCS party after early season losses, but there is still plenty to play for on both sides.
These two will meet at Lavell Edwards Stadium on Friday night at 8:00 p.m. (ET) in a nationally televised NCAA football betting affair on ESPN.
It's hard to think that this game really could change conference realignment in the future, but it really is possible. UCF (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) has dreams of getting into a revamped Big East, and a win like this one on the road against a program with some history and tradition to it would only bolster its case to join an AQ conference.
Meanwhile, BYU (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) stepped away from the Mountain West after last season and is now an independent, but could be looking for entry into the Pac-16 or potentially a revamped Big XII or Big Ten in the near future. A loss in this game could be devastating for head coach Bronco Mendenhall and the gang.
A pair of sophomore quarterbacks will be under the gun as the Cougars' Jake Heaps squares off with the Knights' Jeff Godfrey. Of all of the sophomore quarterbacks in the nation, these are two of the more intriguing players, though they're two completely different quarterbacks.
Heaps is more of a drop-back passer. He has completed 57.1 percent of his passes for 722 yards on the campaign, but he has a TD/INT ratio of 3/4. The only receiver he has on the team that is averaging even 50 yards per game is Cody Hoffman.
Godfrey looks to run first and throw second, something that head coach George O'Leary is trying to change at least just a tad. The sophomore leads the Knights with six touchdowns with six, but he has yet to throw for a score on the season.
The Knights have a trio of fantastic running backs behind Godfrey, and all are likely to get at least 8-10 touches in this one. Ronnie Weaver, Brynn Harvey and Latavius Murray have combined for 79 carries for 421 yards and four touchdowns on the campaign, and all three have over 120 total yards.
UCF is clearly a defensive-minded team, something that you don't see a lot in Conference USA. The team has allowed just 20 total points on the campaign, though 17 of those came in last week's loss against the Florida International Golden Panthers.
BYU's defense had kept both the Ole Miss Rebels and Texas Longhorns down in its first two games, but last week's home opener against the Utah Utes was an embarrassment. Though it wasn't all the defense's fault, the Cougars were outscored 40-0 in the second half of the "Holy War" en route to a 54-10 defeat.
This is the first meeting between these two teams, and it is as far west as UCF has traveled for a road game since 2002 against the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Knights are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games, but last week's loss came at FIU, their only road encounter on the season. They are also 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following an SU defeat.
The Cougars have covered four straight against teams with a winning record.
The hosts are favored by three points on the Don Best odds screen for Friday night's encounter, though they opened on Sunday night at minus 3 ½. The 'total' is still off the board as of Monday morning.
Expect a nice night in Provo on Friday, as the early forecast is calling for afternoon highs to reach the low-80s with no chance of rain and relatively light winds.
NCAAF Week 4
BYU, Central Florida both got upset by in-state rivals last week; BYU got crushed 54-10 by Utah- they've scored total of 40 points in its three games- they're playing tough game for fourth week in row. UCF lost at Florida International last week- they've allowed total of 20 points in two games vs I-A opponents. Since 2007, Knights are 8-3 as road underdogs, 9-5 in non-conference games. BYU is 16-11 as home favorite since 2006; they've been outrushed 408-56 in last two games.
Central Florida at BYU: What Bettors Need to Know
Central Florida Knights at BYU Cougars (-2.5, 42.5)
Central Florida takes on a limping BYU squad that has dropped its last two games, including an embarrassing 54-10 loss to rival Utah in the Holy War last weekend. The Knights are also coming off a loss, falling 17-10 to Florida International in Week 3 for their first defeat of the year.
Line moves
Sportsbooks opened BYU as a 3.5-point home favorite, but that number has been bet down to 2.5 as of Thursday afternoon. The total was posted at 43 and has dropped just half a point since opening.
Knight watch
The Knights currently hold claim to one of the top defenses in the country, ranked first in pass defense (93.7 ypg) and third in points allowed (6.7). Their most impressive display was a 30-3 stomping of Boston College, in which they gave up just 141 total yards and snatched two interceptions.
Against FIU in Week 3, UCF outgained the Golden Panthers 300-238, but a second-quarter fumble made the difference. Florida International scooped up a loose ball for a 51-yard touchdown recovery. It was one of three fumbles from the Knights, two of which ended up in the hands of the Golden Panthers. Central Florida head coach George O’Leary stressed taking care of the football in practice this week.
"I think this is the best week for the show team giving us an example of what the other team does," O’Leary told the Orlando Sentinel. "And usually if that happens, you go out and play well. There's reasons you don't line up and play well because you don't get the right look during the week. But I thought everyone was into this practice plan and did what they had to do during the week."
Holy smoked
The Cougars’ loss to the Utes was a hard pill to swallow, but something BYU has dealt with before. Last year, it fell 17-16 to Utah in the final week of the season then rolled UTEP, 52-24, in the New Mexico Bowl.
“Oh, I intend to bounce back, and hopefully I can provide that example for our team,” BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall told The Salt Lake Tribune. “If you are in coaching, one of the greatest challenges is to help a team bounce back from that. So that’s what our intention is.”
The Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Danger zone
Containing UCF quarterback Jeff Godfrey tops the Cougars’ do-to list Friday.
The sophomore passer leads all C-USA QBs in completion percentage (69.4) but has yet to throw for a touchdown or an interception, attempting just 62 throws through three games.
The one thing that has BYU sweating is Godfrey’s ability to zone read (read the defense out of the shotgun and make a decision to pass or run based on the defense's reaction). Godfrey is averaging 52 yards per game on the ground and has scampered for six touchdowns.
“(Godfrey) is a really explosive quarterback, a run-pass threat,” Mendenhall told reporters. “(UCF run ) a lot of zone-read type of plays. Some option type of plays. And he is still a capable thrower as well. Yeah, they are definitely capable of scoring a lot of points, wide open. And he is a quarterback that can create.”
The Cougars struggle against the run, giving up 157.3 rushing yards per game – 77th in the nation. They allowed Utah to march for 242 yards on the ground, avenging more than six yards per carry.
Trends
- Knights are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.
- Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
- Under is 6-0 in Knights’ last six games overall.
- Under is 11-5 in Cougars’ last 16 games overall.
Prediction: UCF 20, BYU 16 – The Knights’ defense and tricky offense kick the Cougars while they’re down.
UCF at BYU Preview
By Brian Edwards
This week’s edition of Friday Night Lights takes us to Provo where a pair of teams are in dire need of a victory after both lost as favorites in Week 3. Coming off a blowout loss to its arch rival, Brigham Young (1-2 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) will play host to Central Florida at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Most betting shops opened BYU as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 43 ½. As of Thursday afternoon, most books had the Cougars favored by 2 ½ or three with the total at 43 ½ or 44. The Knights are plus-120 on the money line (risk $100 to win $120).
Bronco Mendenhall’s squad is coming off an embarrassing 54-10 loss to Utah as a four-point home favorite. The Utes actually trailed the Cougars 10-7 midway through the second quarter before going on a 44-3 run to close out the blowout victory.
That’s what happens when you don’t take care of the football and when you cough up six fumbles like BYU did last week, you’re going to get spanked every time. Another issue has been the play of sophomore quarterback Jake Heaps, who has a mediocre ¾ touchdown-to-interception ratio.
UCF (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) had won six in a row and 11 of its last 12 games until it went down I-95 South about three hours last weekend and came up on the short end of a 17-10 decision at Florida International. The Golden Panthers won outright as six-point underdogs, hooking up money-line backers with a payout in the plus-200 range.
UCF out-yarded FIU 300-238 but couldn’t overcome losing the turnover battle by two on account of a pair of fumbles lost. Jeff Godfrey had 181 passing yards and also rushed for 41 yards and the team’s lone touchdown, but it wasn’t enough for the Knights.
George O’Leary’s team won its first two games over Charleston Southern and Boston College by a combined score of 92-3, blasting the Eagles from out of the ACC by a 30-3 count as a 7½-point home favorite.
BYU rallied from a 13-0 fourth-quarter deficit at Ole Miss to win 14-13 in its season opener in Oxford. However, the Cougars disappointed their backers as two-point road favorites. In Week 2, BYU played another nail-biter but lost 17-16 at Texas. This time, though, the Cougars took the cash as 7 ½-point ‘dogs.
BYU is 16-13 ATS in 29 games as a home favorite during Bronco Mendenhall’s seven-year tenure. Meanwhile, UFC has compiled a 14-7 spread record as a road underdog since 2005.
The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight UCF games dating back to last season. During this span, the Knights have allowed only two teams to score in double digits and have given up an average of just 8.3 points per game.
The ‘under’ is 2-1 for BYU this year and 11-5 dating back to its last 16 games.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Boston College is off to a horrific 0-3 start both SU and ATS, but it finally got some good news on Thursday when star RB Montel Harris practiced at full speed and was upgrade to ‘probable’ vs. UMass.
Florida St. QB Clint Trickett is set to make his first career start Saturday at Clemson. E.J. Manuel (shoulder) is extremely ‘doubtful’ after getting injured in last week’s 23-13 home loss to Oklahoma. Clemson has won four in a row over FSU in Death Valley by an average of 15 points per game.
Sportsbook.com has updated its Games of the Year numbers and here’s one of great interest for next week: Wisconsin -6 vs. Nebraska at Camp Randall. Another game for next week is Alabama (-7) at Florida. The Tide’s last win at The Swamp came in overtime in 1999 on Shaun Alexander’s 25-yard run off-tackle left. (For Gator fans, it was another ‘Marquand Manuel Game’ like the one in Tallahassee in 1998.)
Troy has won five in a row both SU and ATS over Middle Tennessee with the last four wins coming by 14 points or more. The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight games in this Sun Belt Conference rivalry.
Did UAB really lose at home to Tulane by a 49-10 score last week? Yes, the Blazers did and yes, Neil Callaway is on his way out in B’ham.