BYU Cougars Seek Revenge Vs Utah State Aggies
By: Dave Consolazio
The BYU Cougars play host in the prime-time Friday night matchup for the second straight week when they take on the Utah State Aggies.
The Don Best odds screen currently lists BYU as a 7½-point home favorite. ESPN will pick up the broadcast for Friday’s only game, which is set to kick off at 8:00 p.m. (ET).
Last season, this in-state rivalry was kicked up a few notches when Utah State beat BYU outright as a 4½-point underdog at home. Dating back to 1996, BYU had won nine straight over the Aggies, but last season Utah State finally broke their long losing streak.
BYU hopes to retake command of the series at home in LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Utah State (1-2) got some national attention after pushing defending champion Auburn to the limit as 23-point road 'dogs in their season opener. They followed that game up with a blowout win over FCS Weber State, and a tough loss in overtime to Colorado State last week.
Despite the loss, running back Robert Turbin had a big game, bringing his season total to eight rushing touchdowns over three games with a four-touchdown effort. Along with freshman dual-threat quarterback Chuckie Keeton, Turbin adds to a solid Aggies backfield.
BYU (2-2) bounced back nicely from an embarrassing 54-10 loss to Utah two weeks ago, beating Central Florida 24-17 last week as a 1½-point favorite. The win and cover brought the Cougars' spread record to 2-2.
The win also served as a bit of proof that the Utah blowout may have been a bit of an anomaly. In their three other games, the Cougars have surrendered 17 points or less, suggesting that they have a strong defensive unit.
They’ll need one against this Utah State attack that is averaging 42 points per game.
While BYU holds the clear 9-1 SU edge over the last 10 meetings between these two teams, Utah State has had a habit of covering spreads with a 5-1 ATS advantage over the last six games.
The location of this one may make all the difference though, as Utah State is an abysmal 2-18 SU in the last 20 games away from home. BYU has won six of its last seven games at home.
Four of the last five meetings between Utah State and BYU have gone ‘under’ the posted total. Check back for the total in this one a bit later in the week.
Both the total and the ATS result could simply come down to which team can control the tempo of the game. BYU would be more comfortable with a defensive game, while Utah State would be happier shooting out and lighting up the scoreboard.
Clear skies are in the Provo forecast for Friday when afternoon highs are expected to climb into the mid-80s.
Utah St. at BYU Preview
By Brian Edwards
For the second time in as many weeks, Friday Night Lights takes us back to Provo and the home of the Brigham Young Cougars, who rallied to capture a 24-17 win over Central Florida as 1½-point home favorites last Friday.
This time around, the visitor will be Utah State, a program that has lost 15 consecutive road games at BYU.
Most books have installed BYU (2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) as a 7 ½-point favorite with a total of 51. Bettors can take Utah St. (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) to win outright for a plus-260 return (risk $100 to win $260).
Bronco Mendenhall’s team was coming off an embarrassing 54-10 home loss to arch-rival Utah when UCF came calling last week. The Knights drew first blood with a field goal early in the first quarter and had a 10-3 advantage at intermission.
Central Florida QB Jeff Godfrey ran for his second touchdown midway through the third quarter to put his team up by a 17-10 count. But the Cougars drew even again on the ensuing kickoff when Cody Hoffman found a seam and went 93 yards to paydirt.
BYU took the lead for the first time at the 10:29 mark of the final stanza thanks to a six-yard touchdown run by Bryan Kariya, who finished with 52 rushing yards on 14 carries. UCF was threatening for a tying score in the waning moments, but Godfrey made several terrible decisions that ruined the last-gasp drive.
BYU was out-yarded 399-260 by UCF, but the Cougars created three turnovers (two fumbles, one interception) and only committed one and that was the difference.
Utah St. nearly pulled a stunning upset in Week 1 when it faced the defending national champions on The Plains. The Aggies took a commanding 38-28 lead with a little more than three minutes remaining, but Auburn responded with a TD drive that cut the deficit to three at the two-minute mark.
From there, AU recovered an onside kick and marched down into the red zone. On a second-and-goal play with 50 ticks left, Michael Dyer plunged one yard to the goal line and the play was ruled a touchdown. However, video replays seemed to clearly indicate that Dyer came up short of the plane. Nevertheless, the call was not overturned and Auburn pulled out a fortunate 42-38 win.
But the Aggies easily took the cash as 23-point road underdogs.
Since then, Utah St. has demolished Weber St. 54-17 as a 14-point home ‘chalk.’ After an open date, Utah St. dropped a 35-34 double-overtime decision to Colorado St. last Saturday as a 13-point home favorite.
Andersen’s team had a 21-13 lead until the Rams scored a TD and converted a two-point conversion with 42 seconds remaining in regulation. After both teams matched TDs in the first extra session, Colorado St. went ahead 35-28 by scoring on its possession to start the second OT.
Utah St. answered on Robert Turbin’s fourth rushing touchdown of the night from 25 yards out. Sensing that his defense was tiring, Andersen opted to go for two and the win, but the conversion attempt came up short and CSU escaped Logan with an upset win.
Turbin rushed for 115 yards and four scores against the Rams. For the season, Turbin has rushed 64 times for 365 yards and eight TDs, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.
True freshman QB Chuckie Keeton has played well from the get-go. In his first start at Auburn, Keeton ran for a pair of TDs and threw for 213 yards without an interception. In fact, Keeton has yet to be picked off while completing 40-of-60 passes for two touchdowns.
As for BYU sophomore QB Jake Heaps, he has a mediocre 3/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Heaps has 855 passing yards, completing 55 percent of his throws to date.
Utah St. has been an incredibly lucrative team to support as a road underdog since Gary Andersen took over in 2008. The Aggies have cashed tickets at a 9-2 ATS clip in such spots since 2009. If we go all the way back to 2007, Utah St. is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games as a road ‘dog.
As a home favorite on Mendenhall’s watch, BYU owns a 17-13 spread record.
The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight head-to-head meetings between these in-state rivals. As for this year, the ‘over’ has hit in all three Utah St. games, while the ‘under’ is 3-1 for BYU.
Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Clemson owns a 4-1 spread record as a home underdog during Dabo Swinney’s four-year tenure.
Here’s the stat line on Mike Locksley’s tenure as head coach at New Mexico: 2-26 overall record, one lawsuit for sex and age discrimination, one fight with an assistant coach who went on ESPN detailing Locksley’s violent temper tantrum, one recruit arrested in Locksley’s car for DUI while visiting campus and, at last, one pink slip before the end of September in his third season. What a legacy Locksley leaves behind in Albuquerque!
Hot Seats:
1-Houston Nutt (Ole Miss)
2-Rick Neuheisel (UCLA)
3-Mark Richt (Georgia)
4-Neil Callaway (UAB)
5-Mike Stoops (Arizona)
Florida hasn’t been a home underdog since the Ron Zook Era. To be exact, the Gators haven’t been catching points in Gainesville since 2003 when referee Jack Childress led FSU to a 38-34 win as a one-point favorite in The Swamp Swindle. UF is a four-point home ‘dog vs. Alabama on Saturday night.
Alabama hasn’t won at The Swamp since 1999 when Shaun Alexander’s 25-yard TD run in overtime lifted the Tide to victory. This is an extremely misleading mention because ‘Bama has only played at UF once since ’99.
This, however, is not a misleading factoid: Mississippi St. hasn’t prevailed between the hedges in Athens since 1956. The Bulldogs are seven-point ‘dogs Saturday at UGA.
Utah State at BYU: What Bettors Need to Know
Utah State Aggies at BYU Cougars (-7.5, 51)
It’s no Holy War, but there is plenty of bad blood between the Aggies and Cougars. Utah State upset BYU 31-16 as a 4-point home underdog last October, the first time it had beaten its state rival in the past 11 meetings going back to 1994.
The Old Wagon Wheel is up for grabs when these programs collide under the Friday night lights.
Run, Robert Run
The Aggies boast the fifth-best rushing offense in college football, behind the quick feet of running back Robert Turbin.
After missing the entire 2010 season due to injuries, Turbin has picked up where he left off in 2009, when he rushed for 1,296 yards – 21st in the nation. This year, he's amassed 365 yards through the first three games and has found the end zone eight times – tied for the fourth most rushing TDs. He scored four of those touchdowns in last week's loss to Colorado State.
"I think he is a great running back. In fact I was just telling our offensive staff I would love to coach him," BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall told KSL.com. "He plays hard and runs physical, runs for power and doesn't back down. He is fun to watch; I really think he is a great player."
The Cougars have struggled against the run this season, allowing more than 138 yards per game. Against Central Florida last week, BYU did a much better job containing the run, allowing only 81 yards on the ground in the 24-17 win.
However, in the 54-10 loss to Utah, the Cougars were bowled over for 242 rushing yards, giving up 6.4 yards per carry. Turbin enters Friday’s game averaging 5.7 yards a run. The Aggies have scored five rushing touchdowns in each of their first three games.
Death from above
Brigham Young was lucky to escape with a win over UCF last week, needing three second-half turnovers from the Knights and a 93-yard kick return touchdown to battle back from 14 points down.
The Cougars were outgained 399-260, with 318 of those UCF gains coming through the air. The secondary wasn’t on the same page, with corners and safeties mixing up assignments. Mendenhall blamed some of the confusion on struggles during training camp but admitted that his pass defenders need to sharpen up heading into Friday.
“We will have to keep improving that, or no matter what size of a lead we might gain, we could be at risk because of the chunks of yardage that could come by not executing over-the-top coverage, which is a bigger part of it than underneath coverage, because of the point potential,” he told the Salt Lake Tribune.
Last season, Utah State opened scoring with a 79-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Diondre Borel to receiver Xavier Martin in the win over BYU. The Aggies finished with just 192 yards through the air.
The Cougars are currently ranked 50th against the pass, giving up 209 yards passing through their first four games.
Fresh meat or Ground Chuck?
Brigham Young's pass rush is licking its chops with freshman quarterback Chuckie Keeton lining up under center for Utah State.
Keeton, who won the starting job over Adam Kennedy, isn’t the main focus of the Aggies offense, which was evident in last week’s 35-34 overtime loss to Colorado State. Keeton passed the ball only 15 times, completing nine of those throws for 86 yards.
"Chuckie struggled a lot making his reads," Aggies head coach Gary Andersen told the media. "College football caught up to him on Saturday."
The lack of a passing threat makes USU’s game plan very predictable, which concerns Andersen. He told reporters he would like to get Keeton more involved in the offense but still has trouble trusting the young pivot.
"That’s the number one priority," Andersen said. "Colorado State came up with a good pass rush and that affected our timing. That’s a concern because BYU is very good at getting pressure on the quarterback. We have to pass block in order to be effective on Friday."
Keeton went 21 for 30 for 213 yards in the Aggies' near upset of Auburn to start the year. Utah State ranks 104 out of 120 FBS programs in passing, averaging just 167 yards per game.
Trends
- Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
- Home team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
- Aggies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Prediction: BYU 27, Utah State 21 - The Cougars slow down a one-dimensional Aggies attack and avenge last year's loss.
Utah State vs BYU
Utah State (+4) beat BYU 31-16 LY, ending long skid vs in-state rival Cougars; State lost its last five visits to Provo, covering just one of last four visits here. Aggies led by 10 at Auburn with 3:38 left, but couldn't finish deal, then lost 35-34 at home in OT to Colorado State a week ago, so they've played pretty well but haven't beaten I-A team yet. BYU is 4-2 in last six e games as home favorite; they've scored only 16 ppg in a 2-2 start, with three of the four staying under the total.