BOWLING GREEN (9 - 3) vs. N ILLINOIS (12 - 0) - 12/6/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 against the spread versus BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 1-0 straight up against BOWLING GREEN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Bowling Green is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Northern Illinois
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Bowling Green's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games when playing Bowling Green
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Bowling Green at Northern Illinois
Bowling Green: 12-4 ATS against conference opponents
Northern Illinois: 11-3 UNDER in road games off a win against a conference rival
MAC Championship Game: NIU vs Bowling Green
By Chuck Edel
Chuckedel.com
The MAC Championship game will pit a Northern Illinois squad hoping to bust the BCS for the second year in a row, against a Bowling Green team that won nine games this season by pummeling other division hopefuls Ohio and Kent State 90-22 . It will pit the strength of each team against each other, the explosive offense of NIU lead by Heisman hopeful Jordan Lynch, against the Bowling Green defense that has in seven games this season held opponents to below double digit scores.
The offenses for both squads are much closer than a lot of people would expect from the coverage they get. The Falcons actually have been better at not going three and out than the Huskies, seeing just 14.3% of their drives end that way as opposed to 17.2% for NIU. However, the last several weeks NIU has been better, with just three three and outs the last three weeks, opposed to 8 for the Falcons.
Defensively, the Falcons outclass the Huskies in almost every category besides turnovers forced. The Huskies have taken the ball away 27 times this season, to just 19 times for Bowling Green.
The most striking contrast is the ability of Bowling Green to be able to lock down offenses once they reach the redzone. They have not allowed a field goal all season, and in the whole month of November allowed just two drives to reach inside their 20. Both teams are just average in controlling big plays, but the Falcons make many more plays in the backfield than the Huskies have this season.
The first battle that will decide this game will be the NIU offensive line against the Bowling Green defensive front. The Huskies offensive line has opened up some big holes for the running game, which is averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Thats a large reason why Jordan Lynch might be able to reach 2000 yards on the ground this season, and Cameron Stingily has already topped 1000 despite missing a game. The line has been good in pass protection as well, allowing only 8 sacks all season with only 13 hurries. The pressure will come up the middle, lead by DT Ted Ouellet. He has six hurries and 4.5 sacks this season to lead the team in both categories. The Huskies will also have to contend with Taylor Royster, a 257 pound defensive lineman who is tied for the team lead in tackles for loss with six. The Falcons have been somewhat vulnerable to the run, allowing 4.2 yards per carry and a 50% conversion rate in third and short situations.
The other battle to watch will be if the NIU secondary can slow down Matt Johnson and Shaun Joplin. Joplin is averaging 17.2 yards per catch, and has turned 17 of his 20 third down receptions into first downs. Johnson as the QB has averaged 9 yards per attempt and is completing 64% of his passes. The Huskies defense though has slowed down other passing attacks, defending 13.6% of the passes attempted against them. Jimmie Ward will be playing on Sundays as a safety, and leads the team with 6 picks and 77 tackles. His secondary mate Marlon Moore has 10 passes defended as well, and will likely match up with Joplin often.
The Falcons will need to have everything going for them to be able to beat Lynch and the Huskies. Travis Greene will need to run as well as he has all season (6.1 yards per carry) and the aerial attack will need to win its matchup. However, Jordan Lynch will likely be able to find some running lanes and set himself up to reach 2000 yards on the ground this season (245 to go). If Tommylee Lewis returns from injury the Bowling Green defense might be stretched too far, and the game could get out of hand.
MAC Championship
By Sportsbook.ag
Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green
Date: Friday, Dec. 6
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Venue: Ford Field
Location: Detroit, Michigan
Sportsbook.ag Line: Northern Illinois -3, 57.5
Bowling Green will attempt to take down undefeated No. 16 Northern Illinois and become MAC champions on Friday night.
The Falcons bring a four-game winning streak into this contest in which they outscored their opponents by a whopping 176 to 17 margin (39.8 PPG). Their most recent game was a 24-7 victory at Buffalo which brought them to 7-1 in conference play and clinched a berth in this championship game. The Huskies have not lost this year, and secured a flawless regular season with a 33-14 victory over Western Michigan, but did not cover the 35-point spread that was given to them.
This game will be played at Ford Field in Detroit, which is closer to NIU, which has a stellar 6-1 ATS in non-home games, while Bowling Green owns a 4-2 SU record (5-1 ATS) as the road team this year.
These two programs did not meet during the regular season this year, and last met in 2011 when NIU blew out the host Falcons, 45-14, covering the six-point spread and holding a 623-334 yardage advantage. Northern Illinois has won the past three meetings in this series (2-1 ATS), which have all finished Under the total. Bowling Green is 10-1 ATS after outgaining its opponent by 175+ yards in the previous game in the past two seasons, but the Huskies are 8-2 ATS in the past three seasons when facing a team with 250+ passing YPG. There are no major injuries for either team in this game.
The Falcons went from second last year to the top spot in the East division of the MAC this season. They used a balanced offense (254.4 passing YPG, 209.6 rushing YPG) in many of their victories. QB Matt Johnson had a great first season as a starter, throwing for 2,802 yards (9.0 YPA) with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Although he has thrown nine touchdowns during Bowling Green’s four-game winning streak, he has tossed one interception in each game as well. Johnson has also contributed 235 rushing yards (2.5 YPC) and five touchdowns on the ground, including a season-high 72 yards (1 TD) in the team’s latest win against Buffalo.
The true life of this offense has been HB Travis Greene who is 10th in the nation with 1,422 rushing yards (6.1 YPC) and has 10 touchdowns on the ground. Greene has tallied four straight 110-yard games with five touchdowns in that span. RB William Houston has been the goal-line back for the Falcons, and has scored 11 rushing touchdowns on just 48 total carries using his 262-pound frame.
Senior WR Shaun Joplin has gotten the bulk of the receptions (47) and receiving yards (807), and is coming off his best game of the season (149 yards, 1 TD). Freshman WR Ronnie Moore did not play last week, but is expected to play on Friday night. In his last game at Eastern Michigan, Moore caught seven passes for 161 yards and 3 TD. With a slew of injuries to the Falcons receiving corps this year, there are 10 different players with receiving touchdowns in the Bowling Green offense, with Joplin (3 TD) and Moore (6 TD) the only players with more than two scores.
The Falcons defense has allowed only 11.0 PPG in conference play, and rank 5th in the nation allowing a meager13.8 PPG to their opponents. Senior DT Ted Ouellet (26 tackles, 4.5 sacks) has 3.5 sacks during his team's four-game winning streak, including two in their most recent game last week.
The Huskies had no trouble getting to the MAC Championship game this season with only one conference game being decided by seven points or less, winning these games by an average score of 43 to 20. Overall this season, they have averaged 42.8 PPG (9th in nation) on 542.3 YPG on offense, including 318.9 YPG on the ground (4th in FBS).
The main contributor to those impressive numbers this season has been Heisman hopeful QB Jordan Lynch. He ranks third in the nation with 1,755 rushing yards (7.1 YPC) and has 20 rushing touchdowns. Lynch has run for 724 yards (181 YPG) and 12 total touchdowns over his past four games, including an FBS quarterback record 321 yards (11.9 YPC) and three touchdowns in the win over Western Michigan last week. In that game, he threw for only 39 yards on 5-of-17 completions, but has been solid all season with 2,457 yards through the air (7.5 YPA) with 22 TD and only 5 INT. He has not thrown a pick in five straight games.
Amazingly, Lynch is not the only 1,000-yard rusher on his team, as HB Cameron Stingily has rumbled for 1,007 yards (5.6 YPC) on the ground with nine touchdowns.
Lynch primarily relies on three players to throw to: WRs Da’Ron Brown (689 rec. yards, 9 TD), Tommylee Lewis (623 rec. yards, 3 TD) and Juwan Brescacin (398 rec. yards, 4 TD). Every other player on the team has less than 10 receptions and less than 100 receiving yards.
Senior S Jimmie Ward (77 tackles, 6 INT) leads a NIU defense that has allowed 23.6 PPG to their opponents this season (39th in FBS), and has not given up more than 27 points to any of their conference opponents this year.
Bowling Green vs. NIU: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (-4, 58)
Game will be played at Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan.
After becoming the first Mid-American Conference team to qualify for the BCS last season, No. 18 Northern Illinois is poised to do it again if it can claim its third straight conference title game Friday against Bowling Green at Ford Field in Detroit. The Huskies tied a school record with their 12th straight win last Tuesday and have won 24 of their last 25 overall. Another victory would allow Northern Illinois to become the first school since Marshall to win three straight MAC championships.
While the Huskies possess a darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate in Jordan Lynch and have 25 straight victories over MAC opponents, the Falcons can take solace in the fact Northern Illinois has won the last two title games by a combined 10 points. Bowling Green, which reached the nine-winmark for the first time since 2004 with Friday’s victory over Buffalo, has outscored its opponents 176-17 during its four-game winning streak. The Falcons are seeking their 11th MAC title and first since 1992.
LINE: The Huskies opened as 3-point faves and have been bet to -4. Te total opened at 57.5 and has moved up slightly to 58.
ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (9-3, 9-3 ATS): Running back Travis Greene, a converted receiver, ranks second in the conference in rushing behind Lynch with 1,422 yards – 23 yards shy of breaking the school record set by Fred Durig in 1951. The Eagles complement the league’s third-best rushing offense with a defense that ranks fifth in the country in scoring defense (13.8 points) and seventh in total defense (296.6 yards). Perhaps even more impressively, Bowling Green has not allowed a second-half point during the last four games.
ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (12-0, 8-4 ATS): Lynch broke his own NCAA record for rushing yards by a quarterback with 321 against Western Michigan and
became only the second player in school history to rush for at least 300 yards twice in the same season (LeShon Johnson). "I think Jordan Lynch is the best college player in football. He is Northern Illinois and he's what Northern Illinois is about,” Western Michigan coach P.J. Fleck said following his team’s loss to Northern Illinois. Lynch is the fifth player in FBS history with 4,000 rushing and 5,000 passing yards.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games.
* Northern Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.
* Under is 10-2 in Northern Illinois' last 12 neutral site games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Lynch is 218 rushing yards shy of breaking the NCAA career mark for rushing yards by a quarterback, held by Denard Robinson (4,495).
2. Bowling Green held Buffalo to 15 yards rushing six days after limiting Eastern Michigan to four yards passing.
3. Lynch needs two more rushing touchdowns to tie Chad Spann (22) for the most single-season rushing touchdowns in school history.
NCAAF Week 15
Northern Illinois is 12-0, 7-3 vs spread as a favorite, covering five of last six games (won by 19 in the non-cover); they’ve won 25 MAC games in row and could get a BCS bowl game if they win here. Huskies are playing in MAC title game for fourth year in row, winning but not covering last two. Underdogs covered this game the last five years and seven of last nine. Bowling Green went 4-0 in November, outscoring foes 176-17 in the four games since losing to Toledo in late October. Falcons lost 49-27 (+7) to Miami in their only MAC title game appearance ten years ago; Falcons covered 15 of last 23 games as a road underdog, are 1-1 as a dog this year, but lost last three games to NIU, covering once in last four series games. Game is in Lions’ dome, so weather isn’t an issue.
Armadillosports.com