College Football Betting News And Notes Friday, January 1

Friday's Bowl Games
By Sportsbook.ag

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (10-2) vs. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (8-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Tennessee -8, Total: 47.5

Both No. 13 Northwestern and No. 23 Tennessee seek a sixth straight win when they meet in the Outback Bowl on New Year's Day.

The Volunteers (8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) haven't lost by more than seven points all season, while both losses for the Wildcats (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) were blowouts (38-0 at Michigan, 40-10 vs. Iowa).

These teams have met just once in school history, with the Volunteers thumping the Wildcats 48-28 in the 1997 Citrus Bowl. Both teams are riding five-game winning streaks, and Northwestern is seeking a school record 11th victory this season.

Neither team has strong trends running in its favor to cover the spread. Tennessee is 42-21 ATS in road games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers since 1992, while Northwestern is 46-27 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the same time period. Both teams are fairly healthy coming into the game.

Northwestern has found success this season despite having one of the least productive offenses in the nation. The team scores only 20.7 PPG (112th in FBS) and generates 333 total YPG this season, and produces a mere 17.2 PPG in non-home games. This is about half of the 34.2 PPG that Tennessee scores on the road.

The Wildcats are led by QB Clayton Thorson, who is 142-of-275 (52%) on the season for 1,465 yards, 7 TD and also seven interceptions. RB Justin Jackson generates the bulk of the team’s offense, running 298 times for 1,344 yards and 4 TD on the ground, along with 19 receptions for 147 yards.

For all they lack on offense, the Wildcats have a tremendous defense, allowing just 16.4 PPG (7th in nation) and 311 total YPG. They’ve been even stingier in their last three games, giving up a scant 11.7 PPG and 294 YPG.

Tennessee possesses a solid offense, racking up 34.3 PPG (29th in FBS) and 423 total YPG, while coughing up just one turnover per game. The Vols’ running game is the centerpiece of the offense, good for 223 rushing YPG on 4.8 YPC.

They key offensive player in this game is Tennessee RB Jalen Hurd, who has 599 total yards during the team’s five-game win streak, and 11 rushing touchdowns on the season.

QB Joshua Dobbs has out-produced his opponent on the season, going 191-of-319 (60%) for 15 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The junior has added 623 rushing yards and 9 TD on the ground for good measure. The Volunteers’ defense has been decent on the season, allowing 21.2 PPG (27th in nation) and 370 total YPG, and has phenomenal in the past three matches, ceding just 12.0 PPG and 278 total YPG.

FLORIDA GATORS (10-3) vs. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (9-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Michigan -4.5, Total: 39.5

No. 14 Michigan hopes to reach the 10-win mark in its first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh when it faces No. 19 Florida, which is struggling on offense, in the New Year's Day Citrus Bowl.

The Gators (10-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) will feel at home in the Sunshine State in a battle with the Wolverines (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) in Orlando. The teams have met just twice all-time, with Michigan taking both of those high-scoring matchups (SU and ATS). The first occurred in the 2003 Outback Bowl (38-30) and most recently was an exciting 41-35 result in the 2008 Capital One Bowl.

The trends to beat the spread for the third meeting run exclusively in Florida’s favor. The team is 41-22 ATS in road games versus good passing teams (with a 58%+ completion pct.) since 1992 and 9-1 ATS in road games off one or more straight Overs during the past three seasons.

The Gators are fairly healthy coming into this game, though OL Alex McCalister (foot) is doubtful to play, and WR Brandon Powell (foot) is listed as questionable.

The Wolverines are monitoring a handful of injuries, most pressingly QB Jake Rudock’s shoulder, which has him listed as probable for the Citrus Bowl. DT Bryan Mone (leg), WR Brian Cole (undisclosed), and RB Derrick Green (undisclosed) are questionable to play, while DB Jabrill Peppers (undisclosed) is probable.

Florida’s offense has been below average this season, scoring 24.5 PPG (98th in nation) and generating 338 total YPG, and has slowed down even more significantly in recent weeks. In their past three games (which includes two losses), the Gators have scored only 12.3 PPG on 231 total YPG.

QB Treon Harris has led the offensive unit after the suspension of QB Will Grier, completing only 111-of-214 throws (51.9%) for 1,530 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions. RB Kelvin Taylor has been the team’s top scorer on the season, running 248 times for 985 yards and finding the end zone on 13 occasions.

The Gators’ success on the season is largely attributable to their stout defense, which allows just 16.5 PPG (8th in FBS) and 295 total YPG. The squad’s stats on the defensive side of the ball have taken a hit in recent weeks as well, as it has surrendered 23.3 PPG and 347 total YPG to its past three opponents. But there are plenty of playmakers on this unit, as evidenced by 25 takeaways this season.

Michigan’s offense has been solid this year, putting 30.6 PPG (50th in nation) on the board and tallying a respectable 387 total YPG, while controlling the ball an average of 33:02 per game. Unlike their Citrus Bowl opponent, the Wolverines have hit their stride towards the end of the season, scoring 34.5 PPG in the past four contests.

QB Jake Rudock is the offensive heart of the team, completing 229-of-358 throws (64.0%) for 2,739 yards, 17 TD and nine interceptions, while adding four rushing touchdowns to the mix. The team expects that he’ll be nearly 100% healed from his shoulder injury by New Year’s Day, which is good news, as backup QB Wilton Speight struggled in the team’s loss to Ohio State, connecting on just 6-of-14 passes (42.9%) and throwing a pick while failing to find the end zone.

The Michigan defense is nearly as formidable as Florida’s on the season, ceding opponents 17.2 PPG (12th in FBS) and 281 total YPG, though they have similar struggled as of late – giving up 33.0 PPG and 405 total YPG in its past three games while managing just one turnover over that span. The turnovers aren't much of a surprise, considering the Wolverines have tallied only 10 takeaways all season, with just three forced turnovers during the past seven games combined.

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (10-2) vs. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (11-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Ohio State -6.5, Total: 57.5

Two storied programs meet for the first time in 10 years when No. 8 Notre Dame takes on No. 7 Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Day.

The Fighting Irish (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) will take on the Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) in Phoenix, which will mark the teams’ first meeting in a decade. The last matchup of these schools occurred in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl, which Ohio State won 34-20, making the team 3-0 (SU and ATS) versus Notre Dame since 1995.

The trends to beat the spread run almost entirely in the Buckeyes' favor. The team is 24-8 ATS versus excellent rushing teams (5.25+ YPC) since 1992, and 48-27 ATS after winning five or six of its previous seven games over the same time period. Bettors looking to side with the Irish can take notice that Ohio State is just 3-11 ATS when coming off road games over the past three seasons.

Notre Dame will be dealing with a handful of injuries going into the game, most notably top RB C.J. Prosise (1,032 rush yds, 11 TD), who is questionable to play with a lingering ankle sprain. CB KeiVarae Russell (tibia) is expected to miss the game, while DL Jarron Jones (knee) and TE Durham Smythe (knee) are both questionable to play. LB James Onwuali (knee) is listed as probable.

The Buckeyes are largely healthy, but may be a bit thin on their defensive line with DL Adolphus Washington (suspension) expected to miss the game and DL Tommy Schutt (foot) questionable to play.

Notre Dame’s offense has been solid on the season, averaging 34.7 PPG (27th in nation) and 472 total YPG, though the scoring drops to 29.5 PPG away from home. Production on the ground has been a strength of the Fighting Irish, who average 5.8 yards per carry, while QB DeShone Kizer connects on 63.3% of his passes for 8.7 yards per attempt, 19 TD and 9 INT on the season.

Notre Dame hopes to have RB C.J. Prosise (1,032 rush yds, 6.6 YPC, 11 TD) back on the field for the game, but even if he does carry the football, the team may not find many holes against an Ohio State squad that has outrushed opponents by a ridiculous 313 YPG to 97 YPG margin on the road this year.

The Fighting Irish defense has been decent, limiting opponents to 22.4 PPG (35th in FBS) and 362 total YPG, though they average just 1.1 turnovers per game. The unit hasn’t played nearly as well on the road, ceding 25.8 PPG and managing only 0.8 turnovers per game.

Ohio State is well-matched with its opponent on offense, putting up 35.0 PPG (25th in nation) and 429 total YPG. The team has excelled away from home this season, upping its offensive production to 39.0 PPG and a whopping 508 total YPG.

Led by RB Ezekiel Elliott (1,672 rush yds, 6.4 YPC, 19 TD), the Buckeyes rack up 313 rushing YPG on an eye-popping 7.0 yards per run. Elliott has topped 100 rushing yards in each of the team’s 11 wins on the season, and he was a monster in national semifinals and finals last year when he rushed for 476 yards (8.5 YPC) and six touchdowns in those two wins.

Sophomore QB J.T. Barrett, who secured the starting job midway through the season, has connected on 74-of-116 throws (64%) for 781 yards, 10 TD and 3 INT, while adding 586 yards and 11 TD on the ground.

The Buckeyes’ defense has been elite this year, holding opponents to a paltry 14.0 PPG (2nd in FBS) and 304 total YPG (4.4 yards per play). Since allowing 28 points to Maryland on Oct. 10, the team has limited the past six opponents to a mere 10.7 PPG.

IOWA HAWKEYES (12-1) vs. STANFORD CARDINAL (11-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Stanford -6, Total: 53

No. 5 Iowa will try to add to its school-record 12 victories when it faces Pac-12 champion No. 6 Stanford in Pasadena on New Year's Day.

The Hawkeyes (12-1 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) and Cardinal (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS) will meet for the first time ever. Iowa hasn't won a bowl game since 2010 and hasn’t been a Rose Bowl victor since 1958. Stanford is appearing in its 14th Rose Bowl in school history, tallying an even 6-6-1 SU record in its previous trips to Pasadena.

Both teams have trends running in their favor to cover the spread in this matchup, as the Hawkeyes are 40-17 ATS versus good rushing teams (200+ rushing YPG) since 1992, and 17-4 ATS against incredible offensive teams (37+ PPG) over the same time period. Meanwhile, the Cardinal are 38-15 ATS after a game where they committed no turnovers since 1992, and 6-0 ATS coming off one or more straight Overs this season.

Iowa is closely watching an ankle injury suffered by RB Jordan Canzeri last game, which has him listed as questionable. The team is otherwise healthy, as is Stanford, which lists only DB Ronnie Harris (ankle) as probable to play.

Iowa’s offense has performed well on the season, averaging 32.1 PPG (47th in nation) and gaining 394 total YPG. QB C.J. Beathard has led the team’s offensive efforts, connecting on 202-of-329 passes (61.4%) for 2,570 yards, 15 TD and 4 INT. However, the Hawkeyes’ ground game has been responsible for the majority of their points this season.

The team’s leading rusher, RB Jordan Canzeri (178 carries, 976 yds, 12 TD), was sorely missed in the school’s last game against Michigan State – the team managed just 40 rushing yards after he left the game with an ankle injury, and failed to find the end zone in his absence. If Canzeri is unable to play on New Year’s Day, Iowa will be looking to backup RBs Leshun Daniels Jr. (135 carries, 609 yds, 8 TD) and Akrum Wadley (74 carries, 463 yds, 7 TD) to pick up the slack.

Iowa’s defense has been solid this season, giving up just 18.5 PPG (18th in FBS) and 334 total YPG. The squad has performed even better on the road, allowing 16.0 PPG in the past three weeks and generating 2.3 turnovers per game in that period.

Stanford’s offense has scored at least 30 points in all but the first game of the season, and currently average 37.2 PPG (17th in nation) and 436 total YPG of total offense. QB Kevin Hogan helms the offensive squad, completing 194-of-283 throws (68.6%) for 2,644 yards, 24 TD and seven interceptions. Hogan has added another five touchdowns on the ground as well as a receiving touchdown.

RB Christian McCaffrey, the Heisman runner-up and NCAA leader in generating yards from scrimmage this season, will test the opponent’s run defense coming off a victory against USC in which he ran for 207 yards and a touchdown, tallied 105 receiving yards and a score, and threw an 11-yard TD pass for good measure.

The Cardinal defense limits opponents to 23.1 PPG (40th in FBS) and 375 total YPG, but has shown signs of weakness in recent weeks in giving up 26.7 PPG and 462 total YPG in their last three games. Stanford has produced only 12 turnovers in its 13 games, including four straight contests with less than two takeaways.

OLE MISS REBELS (9-3) vs. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (10-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Ole Miss -7, Total: 68.5

No. 16 Oklahoma State makes its 10th straight bowl appearance against No. 12 Ole Miss, which is seeking a school-record-tying 10th win, when the two collide in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day.

Since 1992, the Rebels (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) are 2-0 and 1-0-1 ATS playing the Cowboys (10-2 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) in bowl games, with their most recent win coming in a 21-7 victory in the 2010 Cotton Bowl.

Ole Miss enters the postseason with two straight double-digit wins as an underdog over LSU and at Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State began the year 10-0 SU, but suffered a pair of lopsided losses to both Baylor (45-35) and Oklahoma (58-23) at home to cap the regular season.

Both schools have positive trends running in their favor to cover the spread in this game. The Rebels are 33-15 ATS in games played on turf since 1992, and are 9-1 ATS when the total score is greater than or equal to 63 points under head coach Hugh Freeze. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 16-4 ATS after two straight games with 40+ pass attempts since 1992 and 16-4 ATS after allowing 17+ points in the first half in two straight games over the same time period.

Both teams will be dealing with a handful of injuries in this matchup. Rebels star DE Robert Nkemdiche has been suspended for the game, while both DE Fadol Brown (foot) and S Tony Conner (knee) are expected to miss the Sugar Bowl as well.

The Cowboys will be closely watching QB Mason Rudolph (foot), who was injured in his last game and is listed as questionable to play. FB Jeremy Seaton (lung) and TE Blake Jarwin (ribs) have been upgraded to probable.

The Ole Miss offense is potent and quick, averaging 40.2 PPG (13th in nation) and 515 total YPG, all while spending just 26:24 per game on the field. QB Chad Kelly is the team’s offensive leader, completing 277-for-425 passes (65.2%) for 3,740 yards, 27 TD and 12 INT. Kelly has added 96 runs for 436 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. A big part of the team's success through the air is courtesy of WR Laquon Treadwell, who has caught 76 passes for 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns.

RB Jaylen Walton (690 rush yds) is the Rebels’ leading rusher, contributing 5.1 yards per carry, though he’s scored only half as many rushing touchdowns as his quarterback.

The Rebels’ defense was respectable most of the season (22.8 PPG, 38th in FBS), but has been porous in the past three games where the unit has given up 32.3 PPG and 505 total YPG. This is more than 100 YPG higher than their season average of 388 YPG allowed.

The explosive Oklahoma State offense scores 41.2 PPG (8th in nation) and generates 489 total YPG for the season. QB Mason Rudolph has completed 246-of-393 passes (62.6%) for 3,591 yards (9.1 YPA), 21 TD and 9 INT. If Rudolph is unable to play due to injury, he will be spelled by QB J.W. Walsh, who completed 25-for-42 throws (59.5%) for 325 yards, 2 TD and an interception in his team’s loss to cross-state rival Oklahoma to finish the regular season. Despite playing a fraction of Rudolph’s overall snaps, Walsh has already thrown for 13 TD on the season to just 1 INT, while adding 11 touchdowns on the ground.

Sophomore WR James Washington is the leading receiver for the Cowboys, catching 52 passes for 1,077 yards (an astounding 20.7 yards per catch) and finding the end zone 10 times. He will continue to be used frequently, as the Cowboys have a weak rushing attack that gains only 132 rushing YPG on 3.7 YPC.

Like its bowl opponent, the Oklahoma State defense (29.0 PPG, 86th in FBS) is susceptible to dynamic offenses. In their past three games, the Cowboys have yielded 44.7 PPG and 545 total YPG. But this unit has forced 27 turnovers this season, which is a number five greater than what the Ole Miss defense has generated.

Friday's Early Bowl Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Tennessee vs. Northwestern

Tennessee and Northwestern will square off on New Year’s Day at noon Eastern in Tampa at the Outback Bowl. As of New Year’s Eve, most books had the Volunteers installed as eight-point favorites with a total of 48 for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Wildcats were +270 on the money line (risk $100 to win $270).

Tennessee (8-4 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) brings a five-game winning streak into the postseason after winning its most regular-season games since 2007. Four of those five wins during this spree have come by margins of 11 points or more. Butch Jones’s squad closed the regular season by pounding Vanderbilt 53-28 as an 18.5-point home favorite. Josh Dobbs completed 13-of-21 passes for 140 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. The junior signal caller also rushed 11 times for 93 yards and one TD. Jalen Hurd ran for a team-best 120 yards and one TD on 19 carries, while Alvin Kamara rushed 16 times for 99 yards. Kamara also had a pair of receptions for 52 yards, while Hurd had four catches for 35 yards. Von Pearson had both TD catches for the Vols.

Tennessee very easily could’ve won the SEC East if not for blowing double-digit leads in its first three losses. A fourth loss (19-14) at Alabama saw UT give up a late fourth-quarter score. Jones’s team led Oklahoma 17-0 at one point but lost to the Sooners 31-24 in overtime. UT held a 27-14 advantage at Florida midway through the fourth quarter, only to give up a pair of touchdown drives, including a game-winning TD pass by the Gators on a fourth-and-14 play. The other loss came at home to Arkansas (24-20) after the Vols led 14-0 in the first half.

Dobbs enjoyed an excellent campaign. He completed 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,125 yards with a 15/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Dobbs also ran for 623 yards and nine TDs while averaging 4.6 yards per carry. He also had a 58-yard TD catch against the Gators.

Hurd, a true sophomore, rushed for 1,155 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 4.6 YPC. Hurd also had 21 receptions for 190 yards and two TDs. Kamara, the juco transfer who began his career at Alabama, had 31 catches for 272 yards and three TDs. He also rushed for 645 yards and six TDs with a 6.7 YPC average.

Tennessee’s WRs have been a disappointment. Pig Howard was dismissed from the program in early October after leading the team in caches and receiving yards in 2014. Marquez North struggled with injuries and didn’t make much of an impact when he did get on the field (five catches, 46 yards). Josh Malone had 29 catches for a team-high 388 yards and two TDs, while Pearson had a team-best 36 receptions for 377 yards and three TDs.

UT won just two games against bowl-bound foes, beating MAC champ Bowling Green 59-30 in Knoxville and also besting Georgia 38-31 at Neyland Stadium.

Tennessee went 1-2 ATS in three games as a single-digit ‘chalk’ this year.

Northwestern (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) missed the postseason with 5-7 records in both 2013 and 2014, but it doubled that win amount this year. The Wildcats are going bowling for just the 12th time in school history. They are 2-9 in those 11 previous postseason appearances, ending a nine-game losing streak (tied with Notre Dame for worst all-time losing streak in bowl games) with a 34-20 win over Mississippi St. at the Gator Bowl three years ago.

Northwestern suffered its only losses at Michigan (38-0) and vs. Iowa (41-10). The Wildcats posted quality wins vs. Stanford (16-6), at Duke (19-10), vs. Penn State (23-21) and at Wisconsin (13-7).

Pat Fitzgerald’s team has been an underdog seven times this year, producing a 5-2 record both SU and ATS. The Wildcats beat Stanford and Wisconsin as double-digit ‘dogs. This is their third-richest ‘dog situation of the season.

Northwestern has won five in a row since the back-to-back defeats at Michigan and vs. Iowa. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in those five outright wins.

Northwestern is seventh in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 16.4 points per game. The Wildcats are 11th in the country in total defense, 13th against the run and 25th versus the pass.

Northwestern’s offense is all about sophomore RB Justin Jackson, who eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for a second straight season. Jackson ran for 1,344 yards and four TDs while averaging 4.5 YPC. He also had 19 receptions for 147 yards.

Clayton Thorson had a decent season as the Wildcats’ starting QB. The redshirt freshman was second on the team in rushing with 374 yards and five TDs. Thorson completed only 51.6 percent of his passes for 1,465 yards with a mediocre 7/7 TD-INT ratio.

Thorson’s favorite target is senior WR Dan Vitale, who has 33 receptions for 355 yards and four TDs. Christian Jones has 23 catches for 234 yards and a pair of TDs.

Northwestern will be without senior cornerback Nick VanHoose, who is dealing with a finger injury. VanHoose recorded 41 tackles, one tackle for loss, 12 passes broken up, three interceptions, including one pick-six, one QB hurry and one forced fumble. His presence will be missed against UT.

The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for Northwestern, cashing in each of its last three outings.

Totals have been an overall wash for UT (6-6), but it has seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in its last four outings.

Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ESPN2.

Florida vs. Michigan

Florida and Michigan are set to collide in Orlando at the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. As of Thursday afternoon, most books had the Wolverines listed as four-point favorites with a total of 39 for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Gators were +160 on the money line (risk $100 to win $160).

Florida (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) started the season with six consecutive victories but on the Monday after a 21-3 win at Missouri, redshirt freshman QB Will Grier was suspended for one year for testing positive for a banned substance. Grier had been the catalyst in the 6-0 start that included a thrilling comeback win over Tennessee (28-27) and a blowout home win over previously-undefeated Ole Miss (38-10). Grier, who decided to transfer two weeks ago, had completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 1,202 yards with a 10/3 TD-INT ratio. He also had 116 rushing yards and two TDs.

Without Grier, UF took its first loss of the season by a 35-28 count at LSU as a six-point road underdog. Sophomore QB Treon Harris played his best game that night in Baton Rouge, connecting on 17-of-32 passes for 271 yards and two TDs without an interception. Since then, however, Harris has thrown for 165 yards or fewer in five of six games.

For the season, Harris has completed only 51.9 percent of his throws for 1,530 yards with a 9/5 TD-INT ratio. Harris does bring scrambling skills to the table and throws a good deep ball. He has 189 rushing yards this year. In Harris’s 14 career starts, UF owns a 9-5 SU record.

UF would love to establish the running game with junior Kelvin Taylor, who has rushed for 985 yards and 13 TDs with a 4.0 YPC average. Taylor has already announced that he’s turning pro after this game.

Florida will be without two starters, DE Alex McCalister (dismissed), OT Mason Halter (suspended). Also, back-up freshman RB Jordan Scarlett has been suspended. McCalister, who missed the last three games with a foot injury, had 26 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, seven QB hurries, one forced fumble, two fumble recoveries and one pass broken up. Scarlett had 181 rushing yards and one TD with a 5.3 YPC average.

UF has been an underdog five times, compiling a 3-2 spread record with a pair of outright wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss.

UF won the SEC East and took a 10-1 record into its regular-season finale at home vs. Florida State. The Seminoles led 10-0 at intermission after scoring on a fourth-and-goal play from the one yard line. They would penetrate UF’s fatigued and banged-up defense for a pair of fourth-quarter TD runs from Dalvin Cook en route to a 27-2 win as 2.5-point road favorites.

UF’s defense played terrific in the early going against Alabama at the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. The Gators went ahead 7-2 on an 85-yard punt return from Antonio Callaway early in the second quarter. Trailing 7-5 late in the second quarter, the Crimson Tide hit a long pass from Jake Coker to Calvin Ridley, who went up between a pair of defenders and made a sensational catch in traffic. Derrick Henry ran two yards for a TD to put his team in front 12-7 at intermission. Alabama would go on to capture a 29-15 triumph, but the Gators covered the number as 16.5-point underdogs thanks to a 46-yard scoring strike from Harris to C.J. Worton with 5:02 remaining.

Callaway has two punt returns for TDs this year and he has 30 receptions for 603 yards and four TDs. DeMarcus Robinson has 46 catches for 503 yards and two TDs, but he’s been in head coach Jim McElwain’s doghouse recently. Therefore, it’s iffy whether or not Robinson will get much playing time. In fact, McElwain told the media he’s turning pro, but Robinson told the media he never told his coach that those were his plans. UF has one of the nation’s best TEs in Jake McGee, who has 41 catches for 381 yards and four TDs.

Michigan (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) had its four-game winning streak snapped at home in its regular-season finale against Ohio St. The Buckeyes pounded the Wolverines by a 42-13 count as 1.5-point road ‘chalk.’ In the losing effort, Jake Rudock connected on 19-of-32 throws for 263 yards and one TD without an interception. Jehu Chesson had a team-high eight receptions for 111 yards and one TD.

Jim Harbaugh’s squad owns a 2-1 spread record in three games as a single-digit favorite this season.

UM lost its season opener 24-17 at Utah, but it answered with five consecutive wins by margins of 21 points or more, including scalps of Northwestern (38-0) and BYU (31-0). However, with a 23-20 lead at home vs. arch-rival Michigan St. and just 10 seconds remaining, Michigan lined up to punt in max protection from around midfield. Then the unthinkable happened when the punter bobbled the snap and then had his punt blocked and returned for a TD with no time left. The Spartans took the 27-23 win as seven-point underdogs.

Rudock, the grad transfer from Iowa, became the starting QB and never let loose of the job. He completed 64.0 percent of his passes for 2,739 yards with a 17/9 TD-INT ratio. Rudock, who also has four rushing scores to his credit, has a trio of productive WRs in Amara Darboh, Jake Butt and Chesson. Darboh has 56 receptions for 703 yards and five TDs, while Chesson has 45 catches for 646 yards and a team-high eight TDs. Butt has 48 grabs for 620 yards and three TDs.

Michigan’s leading rusher is De’Veon Smith, who rushed for 644 yards and six TDs while averaging 4.2 YPC.

Michigan redshirt freshman Jabrill Peppers enjoyed an outstanding season while playing both ways as a safety and at several positions on offense. He produced 568 all-purpose yards and two rushing TDs. Peppers also tallied 45 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 10 passes broken up.

Michigan faced Florida at the 2007 Capital One Bowl in Orlando the same season Tim Tebow won the Heisman Trophy. Chad Henne made one more play than Tebow, however, as the Wolverines won a 41-35 decision as 11-point underdogs to send Lloyd Carr into retirement as a winner.

Michigan is fourth in the nation in total defense and third against the pass. The Wolverines are 11th in scoring defense, allowing merely 17.2 PPG.

The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for Michigan after cashing in seven straight games. This is the second-lowest total the Wolverines have seen. Both of their games with totals in the 30s (37 and 39.5) saw the ‘over’ hit.

The ‘under’ is 8-5 overall for UF, 5-1 in its last six games. The Gators have scored just three offensive TDs in their last three games.

UF ranks sixth in the nation in total defense, ninth versus the pass and ninth in scoring defense (16.5 PPG).

Notre Dame vs. Ohio St.

The BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl will pit Notre Dame against Ohio State in Glendale at 1:00 p.m. Eastern on New Year’s Day. As of New Year’s Eve, most betting shops had the Buckeyes listed as six-point favorites with a total of 57. The Fighting Irish were +220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).

Ohio State (11-1 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) suffered its lone defeat of the year at home vs. Michigan State on Nov. 21, when the Spartans captured a 17-14 win as 14.5-point road underdogs even though they didn’t have star QB Connor Cook in the lineup due to a shoulder injury. The Buckeyes were limited to 132 yards of total offense vs. MSU.

Urban Meyer’s team bounced back the following week by going into the Big House and smashing Michigan 42-13 as a 1.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Ezekiel Elliott ran 30 times for 214 yards and two TDs to lead his team into the win column one week after blasting his coaching staff for a lack of touches in the loss to the Spartans. J.T. Barrett had 139 rushing yards and three TDs on just 19 carries. The sophomore signal caller also connected on 9-of-15 passes for 113 yards and one TD without an interception.

Barrett and Cardale Jones were yanked in and out of the lineup for most of the season, but Barrett will get the starting nod against Notre Dame. For the season, Barrett has completed 63.8 percent of his throws for 781 yards with a 10/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has 586 rushing yards and 11 TDs with a 6.4 yards-per-carry average. Meanwhile, Jones has connected on 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,459 yards with an 8/5 TD-INT ratio.

Elliott enjoyed another stellar campaign, rushing for 1,672 yards and 19 TDs while averaging 6.4 YPC. Elliott also had 26 receptions for 176 yards.

Braxton Miller, the two-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year who missed the 2014 season with a shoulder injury, saw Jones and Barrett emerge as talented QBs last year. Therefore, he decided to switch from QB to wide receiver where he was utilized in many different ways. Miller was given 41 carries that he turned into 235 rushing yards and one TD with a 5.7 YPC average. Miller also had 23 receptions for 328 and three TDs. He only attempted one pass, completing it for three yards.

Michael Thomas is OSU’s top WR, hauling in a team-high 49 catches for 709 yards and eight TDs. Jalin Marshall finished the regular season with 31 receptions for 448 yards and five TDs.

Ohio State was favored by at least 13.5 points in every game all season except for the last one at Michigan. The Buckeyes easily cashed as 1.5-point favorites in Ann Arbor.

After failing to cover in six straight games following its spread-covering season-opening win at Va. Tech (42-24 as a 13.5-point ‘chalk’), Ohio St. compiled a 4-2 spread record in its last six contests.

Notre Dame (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) has been an underdog three times this year, compiling a 3-0 spread record with one outright win over Ga. Tech (30-22) at home. The Fighting Irish’s two losses came by four combined points at Clemson and at Stanford.

Notre Dame went into its regular-season finale at Stanford with a chance to most likely wrap up a berth in the CFP with a win. However, it was not to be as the Cardinal captured a 38-36 win thanks to Conrad Ukropina’s game-winning 45-yard field goal as time expired. Brian Kelly’s team had gone ahead 36-35 with 30 seconds remaining on a two-yard TD run by DeShone Kizer. However, it allowed Stanford to get into field-goal range by committing a costly 15-yard facemask penalty and giving up a 27-yard completion. Kizer was brilliant in the losing effort. The redshirt freshman completed 13-of-25 passes for 234 yards and one TD without an interception. Kizer also rushed 16 times for 128 yards and one TD. True freshman RB Josh Adams ran for 168 yards and one TD on 18 carries. Will Fuller had six receptions for 136 yards and one TD.

Notre Dame owns quality wins vs. Navy (41-24), vs. Southern Cal (41-31), at Temple (24-20) and at Pitt (42-30).

When Malik Zaire went down with a season-ending injury in Week 2, Kizer became the starting QB. He responded by throwing two TD passes without an interception to spark the Irish to a 34-27 comeback win at Virginia.

For the season, Kizer completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,596 yards with a 19/9 TD-INT ratio. Kizer rushed for 504 yards and nine TDs.

C.J. Prosise led the Irish with 1,029 rushing yards and 11 TDs with a 6.6 YPC average. Prosise missed games vs. Wake Forest and at Stanford due to a high-ankle sprain, and he was limited to only 14 total carries in wins at Pitt and vs. Boston College. Nevertheless, Prosise is healthy now and expected to start against OSU. He also has 26 catches for 308 yards and one TD. Adams has run for 760 yards and five TDs while averaging 7.5 YPC.

Fuller has a team-high 56 receptions for 1,145 yards and 13 TDs. Chris Brown has 44 catches for 562 yards and three TDs.

Notre Dame lost eight players to suspensions or season-ending injuries in August, September and October. However, two of those eight players are set to return vs. OSU. Junior nose tackle Jarron Jones is set to make his season debut after injuring his knee in August. Jones had 40 tackles, six tackles for losses, 1.5 sacks, seven QB hurries and one pass broken up in 2014. TE Durham Smythe is also poised to return from a knee injury. On the flip side, starting junior safety Max Redfield was suspended on Wednesday for a disciplinary matter. Redfield had 64 tackles, one interception, two tackles for loss, one sack, two passes broken up and one QB hurry during the regular season.

Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for Notre Dame.

Ohio State ranks second in the nation in scoring defense, giving up only 14.0 points per game. The Buckeyes are 10th in total defense, 11th versus the pass and 22nd against the run.

The ‘under’ is 9-3 overall for the Buckeyes, cashing at a 5-1 clip in their last six outings.

Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Friday's Bowl Tip Sheet
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

Iowa Hawkeyes at Stanford Cardinal

Line: Stanford -6, Over/Under 53½

Last Meeting: First Meeting

Going to the Rose Bowl shouldn’t ever get old, but this is the third trip to Pasadena on New Year’s Day in the past four years for Stanford. Stanford won against Wisconsin on New Year’s Day in 2013 but lost vs. Michigan State on New Year’s Day 2014 in two tight games. This will be the first ever meeting between Iowa and Stanford on the football field and for Iowa the first Rose Bowl trip in 25 years.

The Big Ten already spoiled Stanford’s season in a way as the Cardinal lost on the opening Saturday of the season at Northwestern, falling 16-6 as a 10-point road favorite to start the season. Stanford wound up 11-2 on the season with a Pac-12 championship, but had they not lost that opening game, they likely would have ended up in the college football playoff with Stanford finishing #6 in the final rankings, just behind Iowa at #5.

Stanford has a very strong collection of wins this season having defeated Notre Dame, UCLA, Washington, Washington State, California, and USC twice, but the Cardinal also slipped late in the season losing to Oregon 38-36. The wins over Washington State and Notre Dame came by the slimmest of margins while being soundly out-gained as the Cardinal resume ultimately didn’t stack up quite as well by season’s end with teams like USC and UCLA fading late in the year.

Since the low output performance against Northwestern, Stanford has scored at least 30 points in every game as a program more associated with defensive excellence in recent seasons was far better on offense this season. This will be the final game of a checkered, but successful career for quarterback Kevin Hogan who had his best statistical season but also had some uneven performances. Leading the way for Stanford this season was sophomore all-purpose producer Christian McCaffrey who wound up in New York as a Heisman finalist after combining for nearly 2,400 rushing and receiving yards.

Stanford finished the season ranked 50th nationally in total defense with the team allowing the most yards and points per game of the five years under David Shaw. Eight of the team’s last 11 foes scored at least 22 points, a figure that would have been enough to win four of the last five Rose Bowls. Iowa averaged over 32 points per game this season while allowing just over 18 points per game with a 12-0 start only spoiled in the final seconds of the Big Ten championship game. Iowa ranked 20th in the nation in total defense with excellent numbers against the run, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush, a full yard superior to Stanford’s run defense.

Iowa faced a schedule that deserves some scrutiny with a narrow three-point home win over Pittsburgh being the only win of substance in non-conference play as the team narrowly escaped an upset vs. rival Iowa State in September as well. Big Ten play started with one of the biggest games in the Big Ten West with the Hawkeyes winning at Wisconsin, 10-6. Iowa was out-gained by 99 yards in that game and was handed four turnovers. Iowa did crush Northwestern, but they had close calls against several average teams in conference play to finish undefeated, winning one-score games with Indiana, Minnesota, and Nebraska while frequently failing to impress in the box score. Michigan State had a big yardage edge in the Big Ten championship, but it was Iowa that committed the turnovers and key mistakes that the veteran squad rarely had in the regular season.

Despite the game being in Stanford’s home state, Iowa figures to have a huge edge in crowd support. One can surmise that Iowa was left ahead of Ohio State in the final college football playoff rankings with the enthusiasm for the traveling fan base being a big factor even though it is not easy to make a case for the Hawkeyes being ahead of the Buckeyes on the final ballot and certainly Ohio State would have been a healthy favorite had the teams faced off.

Stanford should be motivated to prove what many believe, that they were the best team left out of the playoff bracket and the early bowl returns for the Pac-12 have given credence to what many believe, that the league was the deepest in the country despite no team able to fulfill a very difficult task of going 10-0 in league games to remain a viable national playoff candidate in the current format.

The spread briefly opened at Stanford -7 before slipping to -6½ and eventually -6. The total has steadily climbed upward from an opening number of 49½. Under David Shaw, Stanford is 53-14 S/U and 42-25 ATS for an impressive five-year run. The Cardinal is 2-2 S/U and 2-1-1 ATS in bowl games with three of those four games being major bowl games. Stanford is just 12-13 ATS under Shaw as a single-digit favorite as most of the impressive spread track record has come as either an underdog or a heavy favorite.

Despite being a surprise national contender and a team that was doubted all season, Iowa was only 7-5-1 ATS on the year and with the soft schedule they were only dogged twice with this Rose Bowl line set to be the biggest underdog spread for the Hawkeyes all season. Iowa covered in all five road games this season and under Kirk Ferentz, who is now one of the longest tenured head coaches in college football, they are 126-86-1 S/U with a 112-91-6 ATS record. That record includes a 48-33-4 ATS record as an underdog with Iowa 6-6 S/U and 8-4 ATS in bowl games under Ferentz, playing as an underdog in all but one of those bowl games.

Mississippi Rebels vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Line: Mississippi -7½ Over/Under 68½

Last Meeting: 2010 Cotton Bowl, Mississippi (-3½) 21, Oklahoma State 7

This will actually be the third recent bowl meeting between these teams with Cotton Bowl wins for Mississippi after the 2003 and 2009 seasons. Mike Gundy was coaching Oklahoma State for the most recent meeting and it was a rare bowl loss for the Cowboys who have won four of the last five bowl games under Gundy who is 6-3 S/U and 5-4 ATS in bowl games.

With a win in this bowl game, Ole Miss can improve in record in a fourth straight season under Hugh Freeze who took over a 2-10 squad to go 7-6 in 2012, 8-5 in 2013, and 9-4 in 2014. Last season’s team also could have hit the 10-win mark but the Rebels were destroyed in the Peach Bowl with a 42-3 result vs. TCU. Going 9-3 through a difficult SEC West schedule is commendable, but for the second straight season, Ole Miss climbed to #3 in the polls with a big win over Alabama only to falter against lesser competition later in the season.

The Rebels took losses to Florida, Memphis, and Arkansas and while the late season loss at home vs. the Razorbacks was an overtime affair that featured one of the more incredible plays of the season with a 4th-and-25 lateral play converted for Arkansas, the losses to Florida and Memphis came by double-digits. This was an inconsistent team and the overall numbers are a bit inflated due to opening the season with 76-3 and 73-21 victories.

The marquee win over Alabama featured five turnovers for the Tide as Ole Miss held off a furious comeback attempt in a 43-37 win. The acclaimed defense filled with top end talent also allowed over 400 yards in each of the final four games of the season. NFL prospect Robert Nkemdiche has already been suspended for this game and depth on the defensive line could be an issue for the team going up against a fast-paced Cowboys attack.

On offense, junior quarterback Chad Kelly will come close to 4,000 passing yards for the season, but he had four games with multiple interceptions this season and he is a risk to take sacks trying to extend plays. Highly regarded wide receiver Laquon Treadwell had 76 receptions for nearly 1,100 yards, but only once did he had multiple touchdowns and the committee approach in the backfield led to some inconsistent performances as Jaylen Walton led the team in rushing but with just 690 yards and only one 100 yard game.

After a 10-0 start, Oklahoma State wound up losing the final two games of the season, but it is the fourth time in six seasons the program has reached a double-digit win count. The Cowboys have had late season slips before as a 10-0 squad in position to be in the BCS title game lost at Iowa State in the 2011 season as a nearly four-touchdown favorite and the 2013 team was 10-1 before losing the finale with Oklahoma.

A schedule that put TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma all visiting Stillwater had many pegging the Cowboys as a national sleeper this season, but in the first half of the season it didn’t look like a team capable of that kind of run. Oklahoma State struggled to slip by Central Michigan in the opening week and was very fortunate in a 3-0 Big XII start with narrow wins over Texas, Kansas State, and West Virginia. At 7-0, the Cowboys looked in trouble falling way behind at Texas Tech, but the team rallied to win and then with the help of turnovers upended undefeated TCU the next week.

Oklahoma State couldn’t keep up with Baylor allowing 700 yards to lose by 10 even with Baylor down to a back-up quarterback and in the Bedlam finale with the Sooners the Cowboys played most of the game without their own quarterback as Mason Rudolph was battling an ankle injury and only played sparingly before being ruled out. Rudolph sparked the late season rally last season as Oklahoma State upset Oklahoma to become bowl eligible and then won in bowl action vs. Washington. The sophomore had a strong statistical season though he did have eight interceptions in nine Big XII games. The Cowboys are an up-tempo offense that spreads the ball around as no receiver had more than 53 catches and the running game was often sparked by their other quarterback, senior J.W. Walsh who routinely took snaps for a change of pace.

The pace of play wore on the Oklahoma State defense which allowed 430 yards per game on 5.5 yards per play with the biggest difference compared with Ole Miss being much less success against the run and far more yards per completions allowed, but the Big XII schedule compared with the SEC schedule plays a role in those figures.

Under Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State is 93-46 with a 73-59-3 ATS record, but the team owns a track record as being a bit of a frontrunner, piling on points in lopsided wins but not winning in the biggest games. Oklahoma State is just 20-28 ATS as an underdog under Gundy but 23-11-1 ATS as a double-digit home favorite. Oklahoma State did win the Fiesta Bowl in an overtime thriller vs. Stanford after the 2011 season, but they came up short vs. the SEC in the Cotton Bowl two years ago losing to SEC East champion Missouri. In the last six games the team has played as an underdog, Oklahoma State has four outright wins going back to last season as the recent success as an underdog has been there.

While there have been some late season distractions for Ole Miss this will be the first Sugar Bowl appearance since 1969. The team has played in the Cotton Bowl in a few recent seasons and last season’s Peach Bowl appearance was technically a major bowl game, but there is some enthusiasm to be in this game with the program having several historic Sugar Bowl wins in its history and a reasonable five-hour drive south for fans to make the trip. Under Freeze, Mississippi is 33-18 S/U and ATS and after the embarrassing bowl showing last year a better performance should be expected. The spread on this game appears to be hitting -7½ at some outlets after mostly sitting at -7 since being released at -6½. The total has climbed from 66 to 68½ before holding at 68.

New Year's Day Bowl Games
By Covers.com

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers (-8, 48)

Tennessee and Northwestern look to end breakout seasons on a high note when they meet in the Outback Bowl on Jan. 1 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Tennessee won its last five to reach eight victories for the first time since posting 10 with a win at the Outback Bowl in 2007. The Wildcats finished the regular season with five consecutive victories and go for a school-record 11th in Tampa where they lost 38-35 in overtime Jan. 1, 2010 at the Outback Bowl.

Both teams depend on their rushing attacks with multi-purpose quarterbacks and 1,000-yard sophomore running backs leading the way. Northwestern’s freshman signal caller Clayton Thorson has thrown for seven touchdowns and rushed for another five while Justin Jackson was fourth in the Big Ten in all-purpose yards with 1,491 – 1,344 on the ground with four scores. Jalen Hurd was fourth in the SEC with 1,158 yards rushing to go along with 11 scores for the Volunteers and quarterback Joshua Dobbs accounted for 24 touchdowns – 15 passing and nine rushing.

Special teams could become a major factor as Tennessee boasts six return touchdowns this season – three on punts and three on kickoffs. Evan Berry took three kickoffs back for scores and averaged a national-best 38.3 yards per return while Cameron Sutton (18.7 yards per return, leading the country) scored twice and Alvin Kamara once returning punts for the Volunteers. Tennessee led the nation in kick returns while ranking second behind Texas A&M on punts and Northwestern is 56th and fourth (2.13), respectively, defending them.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Vols as 9-point faves, but that has moved to -8. The total is up to 48 from the opening 45.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 70s under partly cloudy skies.

ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 4-8 O/U): The Wildcats’ defense allowed an average of 14 points the last four games, led by sophomore linebacker Anthony Walker and senior defensive lineman Deonte Gibson. Walker, who was named to the Big Ten first team, has 113 tackles – 19.5 for loss – this season and Gibson boasts nine sacks, but All-Big Ten second team cornerback Nick VanHoose (three interceptions) is not expected to play due to a finger injury. Thorson has been intercepted seven times and completed only 51.6 percent of his passes with fullback Dan Vitale (33 catches, 355 yards) as his top target.

ABOUT TENNESSEE (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS, 6-6 O/U): Dobbs has raised his production as a junior with 2,125 yards through the air, a near 60 percent completion rate and just five interceptions. Dobbs, who was picked off 12 times in his first two seasons while throwing fewer passes combined than he did during the 2015 campaign, has found seven different players for at least two scoring strikes, five of whom have 270 receiving yards or more. Josh Malone has 29 receptions for 388 yards to lead the way and Kamara is a key versatile performer for the Volunteers, scoring 10 times and accumulating 1,016 all-purpose yards.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 16-5 in Wildcats last 21 non-conference games.
* Over is 5-0 in Volunteers last five neutral site games.

(9) Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5, 57.5)

No. 7 Ohio State and No. 8 Notre Dame were each only a few plays away from clinching a spot in the College Football Playoff but instead will have to be content with a New Year’s Six Bowl when they square off in the BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 1. The defending-champion Buckeyes were in the top four until a 17-14 home loss to Michigan State in the penultimate game of the regular season knocked them out of a spot in the Big Ten title game. The Fighting Irish spent a week in the top four as well but dropped after closing the campaign with a 38-36 setback at Stanford.

Notre Dame’s explosive offense averaged 34.8 points – 31st in the nation – despite making a change at quarterback and losing top rusher C.J. Prosise down the stretch. Prosise (ankle) could be back for the bowl game but will be going against an Ohio State defense that finished second in the nation while allowing opponents an average of 14 points. Buckeyes co-defensive coordinator Chris Ash is set to leave to take the head coaching job at Rutgers after the bowl game, but former NFL and college head coach Greg Schiano was brought in to ease the transition and will serve as the co-defensive coordinator moving forward.

The Fighting Irish and the Buckeyes both switched quarterbacks during the season, though Notre Dame’s change was injury related. Malik Zaire went down in the second game of the season at Virginia and sophomore DeShone Kizer stepped in to throw for 2,600 yards and 19 touchdowns while adding nine scores on the ground. Ohio State went back and forth between Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett before settling on Barrett, who will get the starting nod in the Fiesta Bowl.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Ohio State as a 6.5-point fave, but is now -6. The total is up to 57.5 from the opening 54.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 O/U): The Fighting Irish suffered their two losses by a total of four points on the road at No. 1 Clemson and No. 6 Stanford. “Our scout teams have done a great job all year,” Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly told reporters. “We're going to lean on them again one more time to provide us with the kind of look necessary to prepare our defense. But no, we know the challenge that Ohio State brings, and we're going to have to do a great job of preparing our defense.” That defense allowed an average of 22.4 points in the regular season and was at its best against the pass, limiting opponents to 195.9 yards through the air.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS, 3-9 O/U): Buckeyes running back Ezekiel Elliott ran for 1,672 yards and 19 touchdowns but was critical of his usage after logging just 33 yards on 12 carries in the lone loss to Michigan State. Elliott bounced back with 214 yards and two scores the following week and figures to be a big part of the offense in the bowl game. Elliott is one of several Ohio State stars, including Jones and presumptive top-5 pick defensive lineman Joey Bosa, who could be headed for the NFL draft in the spring.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten.
* Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last five neutral site games.
* Under is 5-1 in Buckeyes last six games overall.

(17) Michigan Wolverines vs. (18) Florida Gators (+4, 38.5)

Florida coach Jim McElwain and Michigan counterpart Jim Harbaugh resurrected dormant programs in their first year on the sidelines and look to cap off encouraging campaigns with a victory when the Gators and Wolverines meet in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Fla., on Jan. 1. McElwain led Florida to the SEC Eastern Division title before losing 29-15 to College Football Playoff participant Alabama in the SEC championship game, while Harbaugh had Michigan in contention for the Big Ten East Division crown heading into the final week of the regular season. Defense has been the catalyst for the dramatic turnaround for both teams as the Gators rank eighth nationally in scoring defense (16.4 points per game) while the Wolverines are fourth in total defense (281.3 yards).

Florida's offense has sputtered without suspended quarterback Will Grier as the Gators were held to 17 points in their last two games, and couldn't manage an offensive score in the 27-2 setback to Florida State on Nov. 28. Michigan's Jake Rudock suffered a shoulder injury in the 42-13 loss to Ohio State, and it was initially feared that he would miss the bowl game, but the senior quarterback will make his final collegiate start on New Year's Day. Rudock struggled with the command of a new offense after transfering from Iowa before ending the season on a tear by throwing for 1,296 yards and 11 touchdowns in his last four games.

The Wolverines and Gators have meet twice previously in the postseason with Michigan emerging 38-30 victors in the 2003 Outback Bowl before downing Florida 41-35 in Lloyd Carr's final game as coach in the 2008 Capital One Bowl. The Gators last met a Big Ten team in 2012 when they beat Ohio State in the Gator Bowl and McElwain, who is one of six finalists for the Dodd Trophy - awarded to the top coach in the country - is keen to lead Florida to its third straight win over a Big Ten opponent. "We're here to win a ballgame," McElwain told reporters. "We aren't here just to go on rides."

LINE HISTORY: The Gators opened as 4-point dogs. The total is down to 38.5 from the opening 41.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high-70s with a 27 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at around 4 mph.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 O/U): Jake Butt and Jourdan Lewis announced they will return for the senior seasons after the junior tight end caught 48 passes for 620 yards and three touchdowns, while the junior cornerback was ranked third nationally with 19 pass breakups. Safety Jabrill Peppers (two rushing touchdowns, eight receptions), who won the Big Ten Freshman of the Year award after making an impact as a three-way player, could miss the bowl game after suffering a suspected hand injury. "He's working through something," Harbaugh told reporters. "We'll see."

ABOUT FLORIDA (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS, 5-8 O/U): Starting quarterback Treon Harris has struggled to move the ball through the air and has failed to throw for 200 yards in each of his last three games. Vernon Hargreaves III, who is the Gators' first unanimous All-America pick since 2009, will likely play his last game as the junior cornerback is considered a surefire first-round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Defensive end Alex McCalister has been sidelined with a foot injury since Nov. 15 and will likely miss the game while wide receiver Brandon Powell is questionable because of a foot problem.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Over is 7-0 in Wolverines last seven games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Gators last six games overall.

(6) Stanford Cardinal vs. (7) Iowa Hawkeyes (+6, 53)

Two teams that barely missed out on a spot in the College Football Playoff meet Jan. 1 as Iowa takes on Stanford in the Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual in Pasadena, Calif. “If the Rose Bowl is the consolation prize, what a deal for both of us,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz told reporters. The Hawkeyes suffered their first loss with a 16-13 defeat to Michigan State in the Big Ten championship game, while Stanford earned its third Rose Bowl berth in the last four years with a 41-22 win over USC in the Pac-12 title game.

Iowa began the season unranked after finishing 7-6 a year ago but improved every week to earn its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1991. The Big Ten West Division champions rely heavily on their run defense, which ranks 10th in the nation at fewer than 115 yards per game. The impressive unit will be tested by a powerful Stanford offensive attack led by sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy race after breaking Barry Sanders' single-season all-purpose yards record with 3,496.

Stanford struggled in its only other meeting against a Big Ten opponent this season as the Cardinal scored their fewest points since 2007 and lost their opener 16-6 at Northwestern. Following that low point, however, coach David Shaw’s squad strung together eight straight wins before losing 38-36 to Oregon on Nov. 14. In addition to McCaffrey, the Cardinal boast a steady hand at quarterback in senior Kevin Hogan, who has thrown for 2,644 yards and 24 touchdowns against seven interceptions while completing 68.6 percent of his passes.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Iowa as a 6.5-point dog but is now +6. The total is at the opening number of 53.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-60s under clear skies. Wind will blow toward the north end zone at around 6 mph.

ABOUT STANFORD (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS, 7-6 O/U): The Hawkeyes can expect a heavy dose of McCaffrey, who rushed for 1,847 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 540 receiving yards and four more scores through the air. “He’s the best player in the nation," coach David Shaw told reporters after McCaffrey recorded 461 yards in total offense in the Pac-12 title game. “I don't know if that's even a question. There's nobody in the nation doing what he's been doing. It's not even a debate.” Linebacker Blake Martinez averages a Pac-12-high 10.2 tackles per game to lead the defense, which benefits from a Stanford offense that leads the nation in time of possession.

ABOUT IOWA (12-1 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 7-5-1 O/U): For the Hawkeyes to win their school-record 13th game and their first Rose Bowl since beating Cal in 1959, they’ll need another solid outing from quarterback C.J. Beathard, who threw 15 touchdowns against three interceptions and rushed for six scores. Beathard could be without the services of leading rusher Jordan Canzeri, who ran for 12 touchdowns but left the Big Ten championship game with a sprained right ankle and is listed as questionable for the Rose Bowl. Iowa’s secondary is led by first team All-American Desmond King, who received the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation’s top defensive back after recording eight interceptions while averaging 25.6 yards per kickoff return and 12.7 yards on punts.

TRENDS:

* Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games.
* Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
* Over is 8-3 in Cardinal last 11 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 8-2 in Hawkeyes last 10 neutral site games.

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Ole Miss Rebels (-7.5, 67.5)

After a humbling defeat a year ago in the postseason, Ole Miss looks to make amends when it takes on Oklahoma State in the Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 1 in New Orleans. The Rebels absorbed a 42-3 loss in last season’s Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl against TCU and now must contend with another talented team from the Big 12. The Cowboys started 10-0 and had hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff before ending the regular season with back-to-back losses.

Ole Miss junior defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche - the team’s best defensive player - fell 15 feet twice from a window in mid-December and had to be hospitalized. The team announced Dec. 20 that Nkemdiche, who was charged with misdemeanor marijuana possession following the incident, will be suspended for the bowl game. "I have learned a valuable lesson in the last week, and I look forward to showing NFL personnel that this is not representative of my true character," said Nkemdiche, who announced he will enter the NFL draft, where he likely will be a top-10 pick. "I want to thank my coaches, my teammates and Rebel Nation for their support these past three years, and I look forward to making them proud for years to come."

Oklahoma State has some injury issues of its own with quarterback Mason Rudolph employing a walking boot on his right foot with the bowl game less than two weeks away. Still, coach Mike Gundy seems to be unconcerned about the status of Rudolph and two of his weapons, tight end Blake Jarwin (ribs) and fullback Jeremy Seaton (undisclosed). Rudolph led the Big 12 with 57 passes of 20 yards or more and finished his sophomore regular season with 3,591 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Ole Miss as a 6.5-point fave but is now -7.5. the total is up a half-point from the opening 67.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS, 8-4 O/U): The Cowboys rank in the top 10 nationally in passing yards (seventh) and points per game (ninth). They have tons of weapons on offense, but sophomore wide receiver James Washington (52 catches, 1,077 yards, 10 touchdowns) is the best of the bunch. Oklahoma State’s running game is relatively mediocre with only Chris Carson (504 yards) having amassed more than 300 and the team averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.

ABOUT OLE MISS (9-3 7-5 ATS, 4-8 O/U): The Rebels’ offense is centered around dynamic receiver Laquon Treadwell (76 catches, 1,082 yards, eight TDs), who had found the end zone in six straight games prior to a quiet day against Mississippi State to end the regular season. Chad Kelly threw 27 touchdowns during the year, including three in a signature win against Alabama back in September. A one-point overtime loss to a strong Arkansas team is the only thing separating Ole Miss from entering the postseason on a five-game winning streak.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Rebels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.
* Over is 6-0 in Cowboys last six games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Rebels last six neutral site games.

Outback Bowl

Tennessee is 7-5 this year, despite blowing double digit leads in two home losses; both teams here won last five games. Last six years, SEC bowl favorites are 27-16-1 vs spread. SEC teams are 4-2 vs Big 14 teams in this bowl last six years; under is 3-0-1 in last four. Northwestern lost consecutive games 38-0/40-10 after a 5-0 start; they're 6-2 vs bowl teams. Vols are 2-4 vs bowl teams. Jones is 2-2 in bowls, winning 45-28 LY in his first bowl with Tennessee. Fitzgerald is 1-4 SU in bowls but covered four of the five games; that bowl win is only one in school history.

Citrus Bowl

Michigan allowed 16 or less points in seven of nine wins; they are 2-3 allowing more than 16. Harbaugh split two bowls when he was at Stanford. Florida was outscored 56-17 in losing last two games after 10-1 start; they gained 262 or less TY in last three tilts. SEC teams beat Big 14 in this bowl the last five years, covering four of them; last three went over total. Michigan lost thee of its last four bowls; favorites were 3-0-1 vs spread in those games. Florida won four of last five bowls; McElwain won his only bowl at Colorado State. Florida OC Nussmeier had same job at Michigan LY.

Fiesta Bowl

Ohio State allowed 17 or less points in its last six games, losing to Michigan State on last play; Buckeyes won national title LY but had QB issues this year- they threw for total of 159 yards in last two games. Notre Dame is 3-2 in its last five bowls, despite being underdog in four of five; Kelly is 5-3 overall in bowls. Ohio State is 3-2 in last five bowl games; underdogs won last three SU. Dogs covered this bowl three of last four years; over is 3-1-1 in last five Fiesta Bowls. Meyer is 9-2 in bowl games, winning 2 of 3 at OSU. Irish covered five of six vs bowl teams TY, is 3-0 as an underdog.

Rose Bowl

Stanford is 3-2 in last five bowls, splitting pair here; this is third Rose Bowl in last four years for Cardinal. Iowa is in Rose Bowl for first time in 25 years; they lost last three bowls by 17-7-17 points. Hawkeyes are expected to have big crowd edge here. Cardinal is 11-1 in last 12 games, scoring 30+ in all 12, after 16-6 openng loss at Northwestern. Stanford beat USC twice, UCLA, Notre Dame, Cal, Wazzu, lost to Oregon by 2- their schedule was much harder than Iowa's. Pac-12 teams won this bowl four of last five years; three of last four went over total.

Sugar Bowl

Last seven years, SEC teams are 10-2 in bowls vs Big X squads; last three Sugar Bowls were won by underdogs of 8-14-15 points- five of last six went over total. Oklahoma State was 10-0, then lost last two games, allowing 103 points; QB Rudolph was banged-up and that limited their offense. Cowboys won four of last five bowl games, scoring 39.2 ppg. Ole Miss is 5-3 vs bowl teams this year; they lost 42-3 in bowl LY after winning previous six bowls- they allowed 300+ passing yards in three of last four games, 427+ TY in four of last six. Ole Miss QB Kelly is Jim Kelly's nephew.

Armadillosports.com

NCAAF: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Iowa vs Stanford

Stanford Cardinal champions of the Pac-12 Conference and Iowa Hawkeyes the runner-up in the Big Ten championship game square-off in this New Year's Day Rose Bowl in Pasadena.

Stanford with one of the premier offensive weapons in the game in RB Christian McCaffery racking up 2387 all-purpose yards with 12 majors closed the season 11-2 with a 9-4 record against the betting line. Defensively, Stanford held opposing teams to an average of 23.1 points a game. Cardinals enter 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games and have been good bets at this time of the year, they're 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games.

Iowa finished the season 12-1 overall with a 7-5-1 record against the betting line. Hawkeyes offense averaged 32.1 points a game, while the defense remained one of the stingiest in the nation allowing an average of 18.5. The Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS their last seven during Bowl season but a cash-draining 2-6 ATS in its the eight against a Pac-12 opponent.

Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril

Tennessee (-10, 49) vs. Northwestern

My power ratings make Tennessee -9, so this line is a bit high now that is has hit the key number of 10 this morning.

Tennessee only went 8-4 SU this season, but the Volunteers were actually better than that record indicates. Tennessee’s four losses came by a combined 17 points, and they had a 4th quarter lead in every one of those games. The Volunteers’ offense averaged 34.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 25.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.

Northwestern went 10-2 SU this season, but their two losses came by a combined score of 78-10. The Wildcats’ offense was terrible all year, and they only averaged 20.7 points per game on 4.5 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 25.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play. Northwestern’s defense only gave up 16.4 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.

Tennessee is the superior team, but Northwestern has an excellent defense. If Tennessee jumps out to an early double-digit lead, it is unlikely Northwestern will be able to comeback as the Wildcats had an awful passing offense this season that averaged just 5.2 yards per pass and only 50% completions (versus opponents that allowed 6.8 ypp and 58% completions).

Florida vs. Michigan (-4.5, 39)

My power ratings only make Michigan -2.5, so there is line value on Florida in this game.

Florida went 10-3 SU this season, but their season started to slip after losing quarterback Will Grier to suspension. Backup quarterback Treon Harris did not play well at all; he completed just 52% of his passes with an unimpressive 9/5 touchdown/interception ratio. The Florida offense is very limited under Harris, so they are a difficult team to back, even though there’s value in the line.

Michigan went 9-3 SU in Jim Harbaugh’s first season in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines dominated the weak opponents, but they weren’t successful when stepping-up in class. Michigan has a much better offense than Florida, but the Gators’ defense is excellent. However, they are more likely than Florida to sustain some drives, and that may be the deciding factor in this game.

The total is low for good reason; it’s hard to see much scoring in this game. While I lean to Florida plus the points based on the line value, I simply do not trust their offense enough to make them a selection in this game.

Iowa vs. Stanford (-6, 53.5)

My power ratings make Stanford -8, so there is some line value on the Cardinal laying less than a touchdown.

However, I think Stanford greatly overachieved this season. The Cardinal went 11-2 SU, but their schedule was easier than it projected to be over the summer. Stanford had some good fortune in winning games against Washington State and Notre Dame. If those games didn’t break their way in the end, we’re looking at a mediocre 9-4 SU record for Stanford.

Iowa is another team that greatly overachieved this season. The Hawkeyes went 12-1 SU, but they are not even close to a legitimate 12-win team. Iowa played an extremely soft schedule, and they simply took advantage of that.

These were two teams I was looking to play against in their bowl games, but unfortunately they are playing each other today.