NCAAF Week 14
Top games of week
Iowa won 38-17 at Nebraska LY, its first win in last five seiries games; Cornhuskers won 13-7/42-7 in last two visits here. Nebraska allowed 87 points in losing last two games after an 8-1 start; they're 3-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread, 2-2 SU on road. Iowa lost three of last five games, losing 26-24 at home to Wisconsin last week. Home teams are 29-26 vs spread in Big 14 games this season.
Arkansas blanked LSU/Ole Miss at home last two weeks; they're bowl eligible now, but are 1-3 on road, with only win 49-28 at Texas Tech in mid-September. Missouri might be quietest 9-2 team in country, taking last five games, three on road, holding four of five opponents under 300 total yards. Both of Mizzou's losses are at home, one was to Indiana, so that could explain lack of hype around them.
Stanford won its last six games with UCLA, five by 8+ points, covering five of six; Cardinal won 35-17/35-0 in last two visits here, but lost three of last four road games, winning rivalry game at Cal six days ago, losing other three by 3-16-29 points. UCLA won last five games, beating USC in its rivalry game Saturday; QB Hundley said he's going to go to NFL next season. Bruins covered last three games after a 1-7 start vs spread.
Underdogs are 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten Arizona-ASU games, 6-2 last eight played here. Sun Devils won 41-34/58-21 last two years; they are 5-2 in last seven visits to Tucson. 9-2 Arizona has five wins by seven or less points; they're 5-1 at home, losing to USC; underdogs covered four of their last five at home. ASU allowed 32.3 ppg in its last three games, after giving up 12 ppg in three before that; they're 4-1 SU on road.
10-1 Colorado State won last nine games, scoring 47.5 ppg in last four; Rams lost seven of last eight games with Air Force, losing last five here, four by 21+ points- favorites covered five of last six in series. Air Force lost at San Diego State last week but is 4-0 at home, winning SU as home underdogs vs Boise State/Navy. Mountain West home dogs are just 5-15 vs spread this season. Rams' only loss was 37-24 at Boise Sept. 6th.
Rest of card
-- Virginia Tech won its last ten games with Viginia, which scored total of 27 points in last four series games and covered just two of last seven visits to Blacksburg. Both teams are 5-6; winner is bowl eligible.
-- Bowling Green won its last six games with Ball State, winning three in row here by 41-16 average; Falcons are 0-3 as home favorite this season. Ball State is 3-2 as a road dog this season.
-- Western Michigan won its last six games, covered last nine; they lost last five games with Northern Illinois. four by 14+ points. Huskies won their last five games. Western is 4-0 as a favorite this year.
-- Buffalo won last two games with UMass, 32-3/29-19; not sure how much snow disrupted Bulls' practices last couple weeks. UMass won its last two home games, covered six of last seven overall.
-- Unbeaten Marshall covered five of last seven games; they're 3-1 as a home favorite this year. Western Kentucky won its last three games, scoring 44 ppg; they're 2-3 as an underdog this year.
-- Toledo is 13-1 in last 14 games with Eastern Michigan, winning seven in row (6-1 vs spread), scoring 49 ppg. Favorites are 5-1-1 vs spread in Toledo's last seven visits to Ypsilanti.
-- East Carolina won last four games with Tulsa, scoring 51 ppg in last three and dogs covering three of four; this is Pirates' first visit to Tulsa in five years. ECU covered one of last six games, losing last two on road.
-- Houston won seven of last eight games with SMU; only loss was last visit here, 72-42 two years ago; Mustangs have fallen apart since, losing all 10 games this year, covering one of five at home.
-- Navy (-7.5) beat South Alabama 42-14 at home LY, running ball for 337 yards; Middies scored 45.8 ppg in last four games, are 2-1 in true road games. USA is 0-5 vs spread as an underdog this year.
-- South Florida won four of last five games with Central Florida, losing 23-20 to Knights LY; USF lost three of last four games, with only win 14-13 at winless SMU. UCF won last two games, 31-7/53-7.
Armadillosports.com
ACC Report - Week 14
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Virginia at Virginia Tech
This is an interesting game, the loser goes home with no bragging rights, and the winner not only owns the Commonwealth for a year, but also becomes bowl eligible. The Cavaliers are favored by one point in this one, and the trends are a little mixed in the head-to-head department. UVA is just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series, but the favorite is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings. And the road team has covered five of the past seven. For Virginia, two out of three ain't bad. The Hokies played perhaps the ugliest game of the season last week at Wake Forest, going scoreless in regulation before falling to Wake 6-3 in double-overtime. Virginia is 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 games, while Virginia Tech has failed to cover in their past five home games. The Gobblers are also 2-11-1 ATS in the past 13 against a team with a losing record. The Hoos aren't much better, going 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Stanford at UCLA
As of Wednesday, most betting shops had UCLA (9-2 straight up, 4-7 against the spread) installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 50. Gamblers can take the Cardinal on the money line for a +180 return (risk $100 to win $180).
Jim Mora Jr.'s squad has won five in a row and covered the number in three straight after thumping arch-rival Southern Cal 38-20 as a four-point home favorite last weekend. Brett Hundley threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for another score. Paul Perkins ran for 93 yards and one TD.
UCLA has compiled a 2-3 spread record as a home favorite this season. The Bruins are 2-4 ATS at home, as they also lost and failed to cover in a home loss to Oregon. On Mora's watch the last three seasons, UCLA is 8-6 ATS in 14 games as a home favorite.
For the season, Hundley has completed 72.0 percent of his throws for 2,873 yards with a 20/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The true junior, who will turn pro after his team's bowl game, has rushed for 566 yards and eight TDs.
Stanford (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) owns a 2-1-1 spread record in four games as a road underdog during David Shaw's four-year tenure.
Stanford will have to face the Bruins without its best WR Ty Montgomery, who is 'out' due to a shoulder injury. Montgomery has a team-best 61 receptions for 604 yards and three touchdowns. Montgomery has produced 1,220 all-purpose yards, in addition to one rushing score and two TDs on special teams.
Stanford cruised to a 38-17 win last weekend at California, hooking up its backers as a 5.5-point road favorite. Remound Wright ran for 92 yards and four TDs to lead the way. The Cardinal defense forced five turnovers by the Bears, who gave up a fumble and threw four interceptions between a pair of QBs.
The 2014 version of Stanford hasn't measured up to the previous ones under Shaw or in the last year of Jim Harbaugh, who took this program from the abyss to a 12-1 record in 2010. Since then, the Cardinal has won at least 11 games in three consecutive seasons. One of the reasons for this team's demise has been mediocre QB play from Kevin Hogan, who has a 2/3 TD-INT in the team's five defeats.
Since 2009, Stanford has won six in a row over UCLA, going 5-1 ATS in the process. When these Pac-12 rivals met last year, the Cardinal captured a 24-10 win as a 4.5-point home 'chalk.' Tyler Gaffney ran for 171 yards and two TDs, while the Stanford defense intercepted Brett Hundley twice.
The 'under' is 8-2 overall for Stanford, 4-1 in its five road assignments.
The 'under' is 6-4-1 overall for UCLA, 3-1-1 in its home games.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
Virginia at Virginia Tech
As of Wednesday, most books had Virginia (5-6 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) listed as a one-point favorite with a total of 40.5. This rivalry game will determine which team's season is done and which squad is headed to the postseason.
Va. Tech (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) has the nation's longest bowl streak with 21 consecutive postseason appearances. That string of bowl games and a 10-game stranglehold over the Commonwealth Cup is on the line for the Hokies, who have been decimated by injuries and have lost four of their last five games both SU and ATS.
Frank Beamer's team dropped a 6-3 decision at Wake Forest in double overtime last weekend, failing to cover the spread as a 13.5-point road favorite. It was the first FBS game to have a scoreless regulation since 2005. The Hokies hadn't lost to the Demon Deacons since 1984.
Va. Tech QB Michael Brewer has struggled all season long and the health of his cast hasn't helped his cause. Three RBs have gone down to season-ending injuries, in addition to a slew of offensive linemen. Brewer has a 15/13 TD-INT ratio this year but to his credit, he's only been intercepted twice in the last five games.
Mike London's team snapped a four-game losing streak by smashing Miami 30-13 as a 3.5-point home underdog last week. The defense held explosive Miami RB Duke Johnson to a season-low 88 rushing yards. Khalek Shepherd rushed for 95 yards and one TD to lead the way for the Cavs, who are winless with a 2-2 spread record on the road going into Blacksburg on Friday night.
Virginia RB Kevin Parks has rushed for a team-best 675 yards and four TDs, averaging 4.0 yards per carry. He left the win over UM with a concussion, but UVA is hopeful that he'll be ready to play by Friday night. Gamblers should check his status.
Assuming this line hold with UVA as the short 'chalk,' we'll note that the Cavs are 1-2 ATS as road favorites during London's five-year tenure.
Va. Tech has lost four of its six home games at Lane Stadium this season, limping to a 1-5 spread record in the process.
The 'under' has cashed in six straight UVA games to improve to 8-3 overall and 3-1 in its four road assignments. The Cavs have seen their games average 50.5 combined points per game.
The 'under' is 7-3 overall for Va. Tech, 3-2 in its home games. The Hokies have seen their games average a combined score of 43.7 PPG.
ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
College Football Cheat Sheet
Covers.com
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at (20) Marshall Thundering Herd (-24, 74.5)
Marshall is one win away from locking up a perfect regular season. The Thundering Herd will try to improve to 12-0 when they host Western Kentucky in the regular-season finale on Friday. Marshall and defending National Champion Florida State are the only teams remaining without a loss, and the Thundering Herd are in the running for a New Year’s Six bowl game if they can hold off the Hilltoppers.
Marshall is having a hard time cracking the College Football Playoff rankings due to the strength of its schedule but is dominating the opponents in front of it and has already clinched the top spot in the Conference-USA East Division. Western Kentucky is bowl eligible as well after notching three straight wins by an average of 24.7 points. “For us, now we're in the championship game,” Hilltoppers coach Jeff Brohm told reporters of the magnitude of the matchup with the Thundering Herd. “We get to play a championship game against an undefeated team on their home turf with a lot of implications for them riding on this game. It's a great opportunity for us.”
TRENDS:
*Hilltoppers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Thundering Herd are 14-1-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
*Over is 4-1-1 in Hilltoppers last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Arkansas Razorbacks at (17) Missouri Tigers (+3, 45)
All that stands between No. 17 Missouri and a second SEC East title is red-hot Arkansas. The visiting Razorbacks enter Friday's new rivalry after snapping a 17-game conference losing streak with back-to-back shutouts of LSU and Ole Miss. It is the first regular-season meeting between the teams since 1963 but the first of many as they will face off at the end of the year as permanent cross-division opponents.
The Tigers defense, which is allowing just 109.3 rushing yards in conference games, will have its hands full with Arkansas' big offensive line and tough running backs. "We've done a pretty good job (stopping the run) and it starts up front with our rush defense," Missouri coach Gary Pinkel said. "This is going to be a challenge for us. They're very good at what they do." Missouri has outscored its opponents 149-85 during its five-game win streak.
TRENDS:
*Razorbacks are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Tigers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
*Under is 12-3 in Tigers last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Stanford Cardinal at (10) UCLA Bruins (-5.5, 50)
Tenth-ranked UCLA controls its destiny in the chase for the Pac-12 South crown and will play in the title game if it defeats visiting Stanford on Friday. The Bruins have won five consecutive games and have a lot of momentum entering the match with the Cardinal, who have frustrated UCLA’s offense in recent seasons. “They are good tacklers and disciplined,” Bruins coach Jim Mora told reporters. “We’re going to have to be very precise in everything that we do in order to get yards against them.”
Stanford won’t have standout receiver and returner Ty Montgomery (team-high 61 receptions) after he departed last week’s victory over California with a shoulder injury. “Ty will be out of this game,” Cardinal coach David Shaw told reporters. “He will not play this game and hopefully we’ll get him ready for the bowl game, which looks like a distinct possibility.” Stanford has been out of the Pac-12 title game chase and is in the midst of its fewest victories since 2008.
TRENDS:
*Under is 12-3 in Cardinal last 15 conference games.
*Over is 4-0 in Bruins last 4 Friday games.
*Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
(21) Colorado State Rams at Air Force Falcons (+7.5, 59.5)
Colorado State visits Air Force on Friday in the regular-season finale for both teams and should the No. 21 Rams prevail, they will become huge fans of Utah State. Colorado State is tied with No. 25 Boise State and Utah State atop the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference and can advance to the MWC title game with a victory, coupled with a Broncos loss to the Aggies on Saturday night. "At the end of the day, we can control only what we can control,'' Rams senior quarterback Garrett Grayson, who has guided Colorado State to its first double-digit win season since 2002, told the Denver Post.
The Rams possess star power in sophomore wide receiver Rashard Higgins, who leads the nation in receiving yards and touchdowns, and Alabama transfer Dee Hart, a 1,000-yard rusher who scored six touchdowns in last week's 58-20 victory over New Mexico. The Falcons saw their four-game winning streak snapped with a 30-14 loss at San Diego State on Nov. 21 as they began life without leading rusher Jacobi Owens, who is out for the season (foot). Air Force could also be slowed by an unspecified injury to quarterback Kale Pearson, who did not participate in team drills Monday but was present and in uniform.
TRENDS:
*Rams are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
*Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
*Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.
Game of the Day: Arizona State at Arizona
By Covers.com
Arizona State Sun Devils at Arizona Wildcats (-2.5, 62.5)
No. 12 Arizona will host No. 13 Arizona State on Friday in a Territorial Cup battle that could very well determine the Pac-12 South's representative in the conference championship game. The Wildcats have won three consecutive contests and another victory - along with a UCLA loss to Stanford - would see Rich Rodriguez's team punch its ticket to the title tilt against Oregon. However, Arizona has lost two straight and three of the last four meetings in the series.
Arizona State also needs the Bruins to fall to the Cardinal in order to reach the Dec. 5 Pac-12 Championship Game at Levi's Stadium. The Sun Devils have won six out of their last seven games, but their unexpected loss to unranked Oregon State on Nov. 15 took them out of the driver's seat in the division. Arizona State has lit up the scoreboard in its last two meetings with Arizona - scoring 99 combined points - and hopes for more of the same as it looks to advance to its second straight Pac-12 title tilt.
LINE HISTORY: The lines have not moved from their opening mark of Arizona -2.5 and 62.5.
INJURY REPORT: Arizona State - WR Jaelen Strong (Prob-Concussion), DB Ezekiel Bishop (Ques-Knee), DL Jaxon Hood (Ques-Personal) Arizona - QB Anu Solomon (Ques-Ankle), S Trevor Emisch (Ques-Arm), LB DeAndre Miller (Ques-Shoulder)
WEATHER FORECAST: Clear sunny skies are expected for the game. Temperatures should hit a high of 80°F and winds gusting to five mph.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "After five straight Unders in this series from 2005-2009, the Over has since gone 3-1 the past four years. Both offenses have key players battling injuries this week as Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong (71 receptions / 982 yards) is dealing with a concussion, while Arizona QB Anu Solomon (25 TD / 3216 yards) has an ankle injury. Both teams have balanced attacks and are pretty equal offensively this season as Arizona State is +10.8 points per game and +0.4 yards per play, while Arizona is +11.6 ppg and +0.4 yppl versus their opponents." - Covers Expert Steve Merril
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Line has remained Arizona -2.5 all week and it appears the decision on the game will be very small for shop, as 53 percent of cash is on the Wildcats." - Mike Jerome of TopBet.eu
ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Taylor Kelly went 15-of-25 for 232 yards and four touchdowns in the 52-31 win over Washington State. D.J. Foster - who is the only active FBS running back to gain 900 rushing yards and over 500 receiving yards this season - ran for three touchdowns versus the Cougars. Jaelen Strong - who leads the team with 71 receptions for 982 yards and nine touchdowns - is expected to return to the lineup after missing the Washington State game with a concussion.
ABOUT ARIZONA (9-2 SU, 4-7 ATS, 3-8 O/U): Freshman quarterback Anu Solomon accounted for 180 yards and a touchdown before sitting out the second half with an ankle injury in the 42-10 win over Utah and his status for Friday's game in uncertain. Nick Wilson was named the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week after rushing for a career-high 218 yards and three touchdowns versus the Utes. Wilson has scored three touchdowns in each of his last two games and became the only freshman in program history to top the 1,000 yard mark (1,085) in a single season.
TRENDS:
*Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Wildcats are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 6-0 in Sun Devils last 6 games following a ATS win.
*Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
COVERS CONSENSUS: 60.62 percent of Covers users are backing Arizona -2.5 with 65.8 percent taking the over.