College Football Betting News and Notes Friday, October 27th, 2017

FLORIDA ST (2 - 4) at BOSTON COLLEGE (4 - 4) - 10/27/2017, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA ST is 2-0 against the spread versus BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 2-0 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

TULANE (3 - 4) at MEMPHIS (6 - 1) - 10/27/2017, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 92-124 ATS (-44.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
TULANE is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 25-46 ATS (-25.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULANE is 2-0 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

TULSA (2 - 6) at SMU (5 - 2) - 10/27/2017, 9:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SMU is 1-1 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
TULSA is 2-0 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

FLORIDA STATE @ BOSTON COLLEGE
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston College
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida State's last 5 games on the road
Boston College is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston College is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

TULANE @ MEMPHIS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tulane's last 7 games when playing Memphis
Tulane is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tulane
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tulane

TULSA @ SOUTHERN METHODIST
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tulsa's last 5 games
Tulsa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Southern Methodist is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

StatFox Super Situations

FLORIDA ST at BOSTON COLLEGE
Play On - Road favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (FLORIDA ST) average passing team (175-230 PY/game) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/game) 89-45 over the last 10 seasons. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units ) 5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 2.8 units )

NCAAF Week 9

Florida State is 2-4 and struggling mightily; their last five games were all decided by 7 or less points. Despite struggles, FSU is 2-0 in true road games, winning by 7 at both Wake Forest/Duke. Boston College ran ball for 601 yards in winning last two games, at Louisville/Virginia; Eagles covered their last five games, but they’re 1-6 vs spread in last seven games as a home underdog. Seminoles won their last seven games with BC (4-2 vs spread in last six); FSU won its last three visits to Boston, by 31-14-14 points. Under is 5-1 in Florida State games.

Memphis won its last ten games with Tulane (8-2 vs spread); Green Wave lost its last five visits here (1-4 vs spread). Tigers scored 47.3 ppg in winning last three games; they’re 3-0 at home this year, beating UCLA/Navy by 3 points each. Memphis is 8-12 vs spread in its last 20 games as a home favorite. Tulane lost its last two games, by 13-6 points; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 2-42-13 points; Green Wave is 8-11 in last 19 games as a road underdog- they gave up 378 rushing yards in 34-28 loss to South Florida last week. Over is 4-2 in Memphis games,

Tulsa lost five of its last six games; they’re 0-4 on road, giving up average of 48.8 ppg- they gave up 62 points at Tulane- no bueno. Since 2015, Golden Hurricane is 7-3 as a road underdog, 1-2 this season. SMU is 5-2 after escaping Cincy with 31-28 win LW; Mustangs are 6-1 as home favorites under Morris, 3-0 this season. Tulsa won its last three games with SMU, by 3-9-10 points; teams split last four meetings played here. Four of last five Tulsa games, three of last four SMU games stayed under the total.

Armadillosports.com

Stanford at Oregon State
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

After a very exciting Thursday night game between Memphis and Houston last week, this week’s game is not expected to be as competitive with a massive road favorite spread as Stanford visits Oregon State.

The Cardinal have recovered from a slow start to become a factor in the Pac-12 North race while the Beavers look to find some direction in a disappointing season. Here is a look at Thursday Night College Football.

Matchup: Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers
Venue: At Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon
Time/TV: Thursday, Oct. 26, 9:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Stanford -22, Over/Under 59½
Last Meeting: 2016, at Stanford (-16) 26, Oregon State 15

Leading the nation in rushing is Stanford junior Bryce Love with 1,387 yards, more than 200 yards ahead of the nation’s #2 rusher Zach Abey of Navy. He is emerging as a serious Heisman Trophy candidate and he will be in the spotlight week as Stanford looks to move to 5-1 in Pac-12 play playing at Oregon State as a heavy favorite in this week’s Thursday night ESPN game.

Love has averaged an astonishing 10.27 yards per carry which would be a new NCAA single-season record. Recognized with a minimum of just 6.25 carries per game the current record holder is Anthony Alridge for Houston in 2006 at 10.09 yards per carry but he had just 95 rushing attempts that season. Love already has 135 carries this season and the list of the top single-season rushers on a per carry basis is littered with secondary and 3rd down backs with big play ability, think Felix Jones or Percy Harvin in recent years.

The highest single-season average among backs with at least 200 carries is a fellow Pac-12 player and 2005 Heisman winner Reggie Bush at 8.70. Love could beat the record and yet not set the record however, as currently he has competition this season from Josh Adams at Notre Dame at 9.21 yards per carry and Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate who has averaged a outrageous 13.93 yards per carry. Tate’s average is sure to go down with more playing time however, currently playing in just five games this season but posting 780 yards on only 56 attempts.

This should be a game where Love can look to boost his statistics and bolster his Heisman Trophy credentials. Oregon State has allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season and the rest of the schedule is much more daunting for Love’s potential with Stanford facing more formidable run defenses in Washington State (3.4), Washington (#1 nationally at 2.2), California (4.4), and Notre Dame (3.6).

While the attention will be Love in a game that isn’t likely to impact the Pac-12 race, the Beavers shouldn’t be completely overlooked despite the miserable 1-6 record (2-5 ATS). Gary Andersen’s team showed some promise with several competitive late season efforts in 2016, climbing from 2-10 in his first season in Corvallis to 4-8 in 2016 and looking like a team that might make another step forward in 2017.

Andersen is no longer with the program, stepping down after the team’s 38-10 loss at USC in early October. Andersen had strong credentials at Utah State and Wisconsin but after leaving Wisconsin in unusual circumstances and now having this surprise departure, his future will likely only be as an assistant. Cory Hall is the interim head coach after leading the team’s cornerbacks the past two seasons while also working under Andersen at Wisconsin.

The failures for the Beavers this season started with transfer quarterback Jake Luton struggling. He won the job over the summer to beat out senior Darrell Garretson but turnovers were a big issue with Oregon State committing 14 turnovers the first five games of the season. Luton was injured in the Pac-12 opener and Garretson has posted similar passing numbers since taking over, albeit against stronger competition. The struggles at the position are made more frustrating with Marcus McMaryion having great success leading Fresno State this season, with McMaryion taking most of the snaps with the Beavers late last season before transferring.

Oregon State is gaining a respectable 4.6 yards per rush this season led by junior Ryan Nall who has gained 6.0 yards per carry but the Beavers don’t have a receiver with more than 21 catches and the team has averaged just 6.4 yards per pass attempt with more interceptions (6) than passing touchdowns (5).

Perhaps the biggest disappointment has been the regression of the defense, where Andersen’s expertise lies. The Beavers cut their scoring average seven points from 2015 to 2016 and trimmed the yardage allowed by 53 yards per game in Andersen’s second season. Another step forward was expected this season but instead the Beavers have gone back to allowing 479 yards per game, similar to the 2015 numbers, while surrendering 43.7 points per game to sit only ahead of Kansas and East Carolina nationally in scoring defense. That average is with some difficult games still remaining on the schedule, though in fairness the Pac-12 slate started with Washington State, Washington, and USC, potentially the top three teams in the conference.

In Hall’s first game leading the program the Beavers were competitive in a homecoming game with Colorado. It was certainly the team’s best opportunity for a Pac-12 win this season and the Beavers led 33-29 after a Nall touchdown late in the fourth quarter. With just over a minute remaining Colorado regained the lead and a tying field goal attempt in the final seconds was missed. Oregon State had a yardage edge of 569-385 as the offense moved the ball well but the run defense was suspect, certainly a concern heading into this matchup.

With two losses Stanford is out of the national picture in almost all scenarios but the Cardinal is still a threat in the Pac-12 North race, getting to play Washington State and Washington the next two weeks. Stanford has lost two of its three road games this season and while in September the defeats at USC and at San Diego State appeared respectable, the Trojans and Aztecs have sunk in stature the past two weeks.

Quarterback play has been an area of concern for Stanford with junior Keller Chryst completing just 55 percent of his passes. The offense looked better with freshman K.J. Costello filling in but Chryst remains the starter. Love will be the focal point of the offense but the reason Stanford isn’t a national threat this season has been the defense.

Under David Shaw Stanford has produced several outstanding defenses in making Rose Bowl appearances three times in the last six seasons. The 2014 Cardinal defense surrendered just 16.4 points per game and 282 yards per game. The numbers haven’t been quite as strong the past two seasons but the Cardinal has still been one of the better defensive units in the Pac-12. This season Stanford has allowed just 22.0 points per game but 416 yards per game with great vulnerability against the run, allowing 5.0 yards per carry.

Expect both teams to lead with their running backs in this Thursday night matchup as that is where the best opportunities will come. Stanford’s Pac-12 case won’t be decided this week but rather in games the next two weeks but this might be Love’s game to post a huge number in his climb towards 2,000 rushing yards as he will face much stronger defenses in November. For Oregon State any Pac-12 win would be a boost for the program and this is the second to last home game with the team riding a little positive momentum after the productive showing against Colorado.

Last Season: These teams met in early November at Stanford last season. Oregon State had just played a competitive game with Washington State while Stanford had just blasted Arizona on the road. Stanford led only 13-7 at halftime and pulled away with a lead that was never in doubt despite just an 11-point final margin. Stanford had a 425-266 yardage edge with a grand total of just 197 passing yards combined between the two teams. Chryst averaged only 3.5 yards per attempt but he avoided the two turnovers McMaryion had for Oregon State and Christian McCaffrey delivered 199 rushing yards.

Historical Trends:

Stanford has won seven in a row in this series with a 6-1 ATS run since 2010, with the lone ATS miss coming at home last season.

The Cardinal are just 12-15-1 ATS in the series going back to 1988 going 5-8 ATS in Corvallis in that span with a 5-5 S/U record the past 10 trips.

Under Shaw, Stanford is 8-3 ATS as a double-digit road favorite going back to 2011, with the lone S/U loss coming in the 2015 season opener at Northwestern.

This will be the largest road favorite spread for Stanford since a September 2013 game at Army and if the line stays above -21 it will be the largest road favorite spread for Stanford in Pac-12 play since at least 1980 (where our data stops).

Since 2011 Stanford is 12-5 ATS when laying 20 or more points including going 4-1 since 2014.

Oregon State is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2016 season, going 5-0 last season and splitting two instances this season.

Oregon State closed at +26½ hosting Washington this season in a 42-7 loss and before that hadn’t been dogged by more than 21 points at home since beating USC 27-21 in 2008 at +24½.

Oregon State is just 11-19 ATS at home since the start of the 2013 season, going only 12-18 S/U.

ACC Report - Week 9
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Florida State at Boston College

The Seminoles head to Chestnut Hill to battle the Eagles, B.C. is trending. The Eagles opened as eight-point favorites, but the public has bet it down to four. The Seminoles are 0-3-2 ATS over the past five ACC games, and 0-4-2 ATS in the past six overall. On the flip side, the Eagles are 4-0 ATS over their past four inside the conference and 5-0 ATS over the past five games. In addition, B.C. is 9-2-1 ATS over the past 12 at home against teams with a losing road record. However, Boston College hasn't fared very well when stepping out of their regular routine, going 0-5 ATS over the past five games on Friday. Total bettors might like the 'under', which is 5-0 in FSU's past five road games and 5-1 in the past six inside the conference. The under is also 13-4 in B.C.'s past 17 at home, 7-2-1 in their past 10 on a Friday and 22-9 over their past 31 overall.

FSU at Boston College
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Florida State (2-4 straight up, 0-4-2 against the spread) is in the midst of a nightmare season that was ‘Saban-taged’ in a Week 1 loss when the Seminoles, ranked No. 3 coming into 2017, lost a 24-7 decision to Alabama in Atlanta. Even worse, star sophomore quarterback Deondre Francois went down with a season-ending injury.

Then Jimbo Fisher’s team saw its next two games postponed due to the ramifications of Hurricane Irma. The Week 2 meeting with ULM was cancelled, while the Week 3 game at home vs. Miami was moved to Oct. 7, a Saturday in which the ‘Noles and Hurricanes shared an open date.

Therefore, FSU didn’t play for 21 days. When Fisher’s bunch finally took the field at Doak Campbell Stadium for a noon Eastern kick in Week 4, it was lined up against a North Carolina State team aiming to avenge a gut-wrenching 24-20 loss to FSU in Raleigh the previous season. N.C. State has one of the nation’s fiercest defensive lines led by last year’s fourth-team All-American DE Bradley Chubb, and it was poised to get after FSU’s true freshman QB James Blackman in his first career start.

Chubb dominated the game, taking advantage of a myriad of situations in which Fisher refused to give his offensive tackle help with a second blocker. The Wolfpack captured a 27-21 win as a 10.5-point road underdog. Blackman acquitted himself well, throwing for 278 yards and one TD without an interception.

FSU went to Wake Forest next and found itself trailing 19-16 midway through the fourth quarter, but Ricky Aguayo buried a 35-yard field goal to pull even with 6:20 remaining. With 53 seconds left, Blackman found Auden Tate for a 40-yard scoring strike to propel the ‘Noles to a 26-19 win as seven-point road ‘chalk.’

Junior RB Jacques Patrick was the catalyst against the Demon Deacons, rushing for 120 yards and one TD on 19 carries. Blackman completed only 11-of-21 passes for 121 yards and one TD without an interception. The ‘Noles prevailed despite Wake Forest’s 367-270 edge in total offense.

With its first win pocketed, FSU returned home to face unbeaten Miami as a 2.5-point underdog. FSU led 3-0 at intermission, but the ‘Canes took a 10-3 advantage into the fourth quarter. The ‘Noles answered with 10 straight points to go in front by three, but UM’s Malik Rosier hit Braxton Berrios for a six-yard TD pass to give the ‘Canes a 17-13 lead with 5:09 remaining in the final stanza.

Blackman would hook up with Tate again at crunch time, though. A 20-yard scoring strike with 1:24 left put FSU up 20-17. However, with six ticks remaining, Rosier connected with Darrell Langham for the game-winning 23-yard TD pass to give UM a 24-20 triumph. The victory for Mark Richt’s program ended a seven-game losing streak to FSU.

FSU true freshman RB Cam Akers rushed 20 times for 121 yards in the losing effort, while Patrick produced 91 rushing yards on only 11 attempts. Tate had three receptions for 56 yards and one TD. Blackman completed 17-of-28 passes for 203 yards and two TDs, but he threw a pair of crucial interceptions.

In bounce-back mode with a shocking 1-3 record, FSU went to Duke as merely a seven-point road favorite. The ‘Noles collected a 17-10 win to result in a push for their backers. With the score knotted at 10-10 with 8:23 left in the fourth quarter, Akers exploded for a 42-yard TD run that proved to be the game winner.

Akers rushed for 115 yards and one TD on 15 carries, while Patrick finished with 98 rushing yards on 18 attempts. Blackman completed 18-of-21 passes for 197 yards and one TD, but he was intercepted twice. Tate had three catches for 30 yards and one TD.

With a chance to get its record back to even and exact a measure of revenge on Louisville after taking a 62-20 loss at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium last season, FSU blew a red-zone opportunity with less than two minutes remaining in a tie game on a Blackman fumble on the exchange with a RB on a read-option play.

Louisville recovered and Lamar Jackson promptly marched his team down the field and in position for a game-winning field goal. With five ticks left, Blaton Creque was true on a 34-yard field goal to lift the Cardinals to a 31-28 win as six-point road underdogs. U of L had a 14-point lead early in the fourth quarter, only to see FSU rally with a defensive TD and a 20-yard TD pass from Blackman to Nyqwan Murray.

Blackman threw for 248 yards and two TDs, but he was intercepted twice for the third straight game. Akers rushed for a team-best 75 yards on 16 carries, while Patrick had 70 yards on the ground on 14 totes.

FSU’s offensive woes have been jaw-dropping, despite the absence of Francois. The ‘Noles are ranked No. 116 out of 130 FBS teams in scoring, averaging a meager 19.8 points per game. They’re ranked No. 102 in total offense and No. 87 in rushing yards.

Blackman has completed 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,048 yards with a 7/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Akers has rushed for a team-best 455 yards and one TD while averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Patrick has run for 434 yards and one TD with a 5.7 YPC average. Tate has 24 receptions for 374 yards and five TDs.

With the team falling to 2-4, FSU fans are restless. The narrative is that long-time offensive line coach Rick Trickett is doing a poor job with a group that’s struggling mightily for a third consecutive season. Others in the fan base want the defensive coordinator out. As the team was exiting the field after the defeat to U of L, one fan voiced his frustrations toward Fisher as he was approaching the tunnel.

Fisher responded to the fan, who was screaming for him to hire new coaches, by reportedly saying, “Won’t you bring your punk ass down here and say that?!”

That incident encompasses the type of year it’s been for FSU, which is in a tough spot Friday night on the road with a short week of preparation. The ‘Noles will take on a suddenly-hot Boston College team in Chestnut Hill, where temperatures are expected to be in the mid-40s.

As of Thursday afternoon, most books had FSU installed as a four-point favorite with a total of 47. The Eagles were +165 on the money line (risk $100 to win $165).

There was plenty of speculation about Boston College (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) fifth-year head coach Steve Addazio’s future at the school earlier this month, but he has sparked his team to back-to-back wins and victories in three of its last four outings. If he can pull a mild upset over FSU, that chatter will completely end and the narrative of a contract extension will commence.

Two weeks ago, BC pulled a stunner at Louisville, winning by a 45-42 count as a 20-point road underdog. The Eagles trailed 14-0 and 21-7 in the first half, only to take a pair of separate 14-point leads (35-21 & 42-28) in the fourth quarter. Lamar Jackson ripped off TD runs of nine and 41 yards to pull U of L even with 5:03 remaining, but BC got the game-winning field goal by Colton Lichtenberg from 27 yards out as time expired.

True freshman RB A.J. Dillon, the prize of Addazio’s 2017 recruiting class, torched Louisville for 272 rushing yards and four TDs on a workmanlike 39 carries. QB Anthony Brown split time under center with Darius Wade. Brown ran for 52 yards on six attempts and threw for 100 yards with one TD and one interception.

Then in a back-to-back road spot at Virginia, which went into last week with a shocking 5-1 record, BC went to Charlottesville as a seven-point underdog and blasted the Cavaliers, 41-10. Brown was much more effective at UVA, completing 19-of-24 throws for 275 yards and three TDs without an interception. He also ran for 32 yards on five carries, while Dillon produced 89 rushing yards on 24 totes. Redshirt freshman WR Kobay White had three receptions for 85 yards and one TD, while junior TE Tommy Sweeney hauled in four catches for 55 yards and two TDs.

BC scored only 98 points in its first six games, but it has produced 86 in the last two weeks. For the season, Dillon has rushed for a team-high 694 yards and six TDs, averaging 4.6 YPC. Jon Hilliman has run for 391 yards and three TDs, but he’s only averaging 3.3 YPC.

Brown has connected on 54.1 percent of his passes for 1,284 yards with a 10/8 TD-INT ratio. White has been his favorite target, catching 24 balls for 313 yards and one TD. Sweeney has 19 catches for 234 yards and two TDs.

BC has limped to a 1-3 SU record and a 2-2 ATS mark in four home games this year. The Eagles took beatings from Wake Forest (34-10) and Notre Dame (49-20) in Weeks 2 and 3, and they picked up their lone home triumph vs. Central Michigan by a 28-8 count. They also dropped a 23-10 decision to Va. Tech at home.

BC’s only other loss came at Clemson, but the Eagles covered the number in the 34-7 loss as 33-point road underdogs. This was an extremely misleading final score, as the game was tied at 7-7 with 12 minutes remaining.

As a home underdog during Addazio’s tenure, BC has compiled a 5-8 spread record. Meanwhile, FSU owns a 15-14-2 spread ledger as a road favorite on Fisher’s watch.

The ‘under’ hit in the first five FSU games of the year until the ‘under’ appeared for the first time in last week’s loss vs. Louisville. The ‘under’ is a perfect 2-0 in the Seminoles’ two road assignments. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 42.3 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for BC, 3-1 in its home games, but it has seen the 'over' cash in the last two games with its offense erupting from out of nowhere. The Eagles have seen their games average combined scores of 50.5 PPG.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Boston College has covered the spread in five consecutive games.

Like Addazio, two other coaches who were lacking job security earlier this month have led their teams on nice runs recently. I’m talking about Arizona State’s Todd Graham and Arizona’s Rich Rodriguez. Kudos to both along with Addazio, the former Urban Meyer assistant at Florida.

Tennessee star RB John Kelly was suspended for Saturday’s game at Kentucky on Wednesday following his Tuesday night arrest in Knoxville for misdemeanor possession of marijuana.

ULM has seen the ‘over’ hit in five consecutive games. The Warhawks make the long flight to Moscow this weekend to play at Idaho. The total was 61.5 as of late Thursday afternoon.

After missing a 35-27 win at Georgia Southern before New Mexico State went into its open date, star RB Larry Rose III was upgraded to ‘probable’ for Saturday’s home date with Arkansas State. Rose was the 2015 Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year. The Aggies were 3.5-point home underdogs as of late Thursday afternoon. They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home ‘dogs.

The ‘over’ has cashed in four in a row for Georgia Southern, which has given up 52, 43, 35 and 55 in its last four games. The winless Eagles, who fired second-year coach Tyson Summers after last week’s blowout loss at previously-winless UMass, play at Troy this weekend.

Speaking of Troy, it has seen the ‘under’ cash at a perfect 7-0 clip this year. The total for Ga. Southern at Troy was 50.5 points as of late Thursday afternoon.

The ‘over’ is 6-1 overall for Coastal Carolina, with its games averaging combined scores of 65.3 PPG. The Chanticleers will host Texas State on Saturday with the total listed at 52 as of late Thursday afternoon.

Houston has now seen the ‘under’ go 6-1 after seeing its first ‘over’ when Memphis rallied to a 42-38 win as a 1.5-point road underdog last Thursday. The Cougars led 17-0 at intermission, only to give up 42 points in the second half.