College Football Betting News and Notes Friday, October 3

BYU hosts Utah State
By Sportsbook.ag

UTAH STATE AGGIES (2-2) at BYU COUGARS (4-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: BYU -21

No. 18 BYU Cougars hosts Utah State Friday night in an attempt to maintain a flawless record for the 2014 campaign.

Utah State has had a disappointing start to the season and while the school has earned wins as large favorites against both Idaho State and Wake Forest, it has failed to cover a spread in four contests this season. Last week the Aggies traveled to Arkansas State as 2.5-point underdogs and were unable to pull off an upset as they absorbed a 21-14 overtime loss despite outgaining their opponent 413-316 and forcing four turnovers. Over the first four games, they rank in the bottom half of the nation in nearly every category, both offensively and defensively, and will have a very tough matchup this week.

BYU has been impressive thus far with four consecutive SU victories, but has failed to cover the spread in each of its past two contests. In the most recent game against Virginia on Sept. 20, the Cougars overcame an early 10-3 deficit to win 41-33 as 16-point favorites, as they were outgained 519-332 in total yards while forcing two turnovers in the contest. These two programs have played some rather low-scoring games over the past two years with BYU coming away with a 31-14 victory as a 5.5-point underdog last season and winning 6-3 back in 2012 as a 6.5-point favorite. Trends show that Utah State is an impressive 10-3 ATS (77%) over the past three seasons after playing its previous game on the road, while the Cougars are 8-2 ATS (80%) after failing to cover the spread in two of their past three contests in the same timeframe.

As far as injuries are concerned, the Aggies may be without starting QB Chuckie Keeton (knee) and HB Joe Hill (ankle) who are questionable for this contest. BYU has top WR Jordan Leslie (ankle), HB Algernon Brown (ankle) and LB Bronson Kaufusi (ankle) all listed as questionable for the matchup.

Utah State distributes its offense between the running attack (154 YPG) and passing game (215 YPG) while ranking 94th among FBS schools in total yards (369 YPG). The Aggies have scored a meager 24.3 PPG (95th in nation) behind the arms of QBs Chuckie Keeton (426 pass yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) and Darell Garretson (389 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT). Garretson has played the bulk of the past two contests with Keeton out, and has played well, going 27-for-46 (59%) with 268 yards (5.8 YPA) and 2 TD (1 INT) in the overtime loss last week.

The running back situation has been cloudy thus far with three different backs getting 20 or more attempts with HB Rashad Hall (141 rush yards, 1 TD) leading the way with 33 attempts (4.3 YPC). WR JoJo Natson has also been a big-play guy out of the backfield with 158 yards on a mere 17 attempts (9.3 YPC). Natson has also been a big part of the passing game with 172 yards on 20 catches (8.6 avg) and a touchdown while WR Hunter Sharp (305 rec. yards, 2 TD) has been the top option through the air. The defense has not looked great while allowing 25.8 PPG and giving up a fairly low 334.8 YPG (32nd in FBS). LB Zach Vigil (37 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) is the leader of the defense that will need to perform, especially with fellow all-MWC LB Kyler Fackrel out for the season.

BYU ranks among the top-50 FBS schools in total offense (449.3 YPG) this season thanks to an impressive performance so far from its ground game (230.3 YPG, 26th in FBS). QB Taysom Hill (876 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) has improved from last season, as he is completing 66.1% of his passes for 7.2 YPA and was a solid 13-for-23 (56.5%) with 187 yards and 2 TD (0 INT) in the team's last game two weeks ago. Hill's biggest threat does not come from his arm though, but rather his legs that have helped him gain 428 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) and 7 TD through the first four games. He leads the team in rushing, while HB Jamaal Williams (296 pass yards, 3 TD) is the top running back, averaging 4.9 YPC in three contests. Williams performed exceptionally well two weeks ago against Houston as he picked up 139 yards on 28 attempts (5.0 YPC) and two touchdowns.

WR Jordan Leslie (227 rec. yards, 1 TD) is the top guy in the passing game and could miss this game, leaving WR Mitch Matthews (134 rec. yards, 2 TD) as the No. 1 option. The defense has been impressive this season, as it has allowed 18.8 PPG (25th in FBS) while giving up 364.3 YPG. DB Craig Bills (26 tackles, 1 INT) and LB Alani Fua (24 tackles, 1 sack) have looked impressive amongst a defense that has proven to be full of playmakers.

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Utah State at BYU
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Utah State at BYU

As of Wednesday, most books had BYU (4-0 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) installed as a 21-point favorite with a total of 52. The Westgate SuperBook has the Aggies at +950 on the money line (risk $100 to win $190).

BYU is led by junior quarterback Taysom Hill, who has completed 80-of-120 passes for 867 yards with a 6/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hill has also rushed for 428 yards and seven TDs, averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

BYU has failed to cover the number in its first two home games, beating Houston (33-25) and Virginia (41-33) as a double-digit favorite. Bronco Mendenhall's team got ahead of the number with a pair of 15-point advantages (as a 14.5-point 'chalk) thanks to fourth-quarter scores in the win over UVA. However, the Cavs answered with TD drives both times, including a score on an 11-yard TD pass with 1:48 left to secure the backdoor cover.

BYU gave up 519 yards of total offense against Virginia and only produced 332 yards. The Cougars overcame those factors, in addition to 12 penalties for 133 yards, thanks to a 99-yard kickoff return for a TD from Adam Hine, a plus-two margin in the turnover department and a pair of fourth-down stops from their defense.

Utah State (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) is dealing with injuries galore. Star QB Chuckie Keeton and RB Joe Hill are 'questionable' against the Cougars. The Aggies have already lost starting WR Brandon Swindall to a season-ending injury and junior LB Kyler Fackrell to a torn ACL. Fackrell, a first-team All Mountain West selection in 2013, was injured in a 38-7 season-opening loss at Tennessee. In 2013, Fackrell had 82 tackles, five sacks and a pair of forced fumbles.

As of Wednesday, Keeton's status remained unclear. He tore his ACL in a home loss to BYU last year after beginning the season with 18 TD passes compared to only two interceptions. Keeton had been unable to regain that form before injuring his knee in a 36-24 non-covering home win over Wake Forest on Sept. 20. He was in street clothes for a 21-14 overtime loss at Arkansas State in Week 4. Keeton came into the 2014 season with 7,114 career yards (rushing and passing), an incredible 56/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 14 rushing TDs. However, in the Aggies' first three games, Keeton has been intercepted four times and has produced just three scores (two TD passes, one rushing score). If Keeton can't go in Provo, sophomore Darrell Garretson will get his ninth career start. Garretson led Utah State to six wins in seven starts last season, with the only defeat coming in a 24-17 loss at Fresno State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game.

Utah State is fourth in the nation in rush defense, allowing only 78.0 yards per game. The Aggies will face a BYU ground attack that ranks 26th in the country with a 231.2 yards-per-game average.

Despite missing a season-opening win at UConn due to a one-game suspension, BYU junior RB Jamaal Williams has rushed for 296 yards and three TDs while averaging 4.9 yards per carry.

BYU might be without its top WR Jordan Leslie, who is 'questionable' with an ankle injury. Leslie, a transfer from UTEP, has 19 receptions for 227 yards and one TD.

Utah State is 1-4 ATS as a road underdog on Matt Wells' watch. However, if we go back to 2007, the Aggies are 24-11 ATS in 35 contests as road 'dogs.

During Mendenhall's 10-year tenure, BYU owns a 27-21 spread record as a home favorite.

BYU has won three in a row over Utah State, but the Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six head-to-head meetings. The 'under' has cashed in each of the last seven meetings.

Totals have been an overall wash for BYU both overall (2-2) and at home (1-1).

Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets

In other Friday action at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN, Louisville (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) will travel to the Carrier Dome to take on Syracuse in an ACC affair. As of Wednesday, most spots had U of L favored by 1.5 with a total of 47. The Cardinals, who failed to cover in a 20-10 home win over Wake Forest last week, have seen the 'under' cash at a 4-1 clip. Bobby Petrino's team will give true freshman QB Reggie Bonnafon his second straight start, while Will Gardner continues to recover from a knee injury sustained in a Sept. 20 win at Florida International. In his first start against the Demon Deacons, Bonnafon completed 16-of-32 throws for 206 yards and also rushed for 42 yards.

The other Friday game is on the CBS Sports Network at 10:00 p.m. Eastern, pitting Fresno State against San Diego State as a 2.5-point home favorite. The Aztecs will be without their starting QB (Quinn Kaehler) and their best WR (Ezell Ruffin). True freshman QB Nick Bawden will make his first career start for San Diego State

LSU has lost a key part of its secondary for the rest of the season. Dwayne Thomas, a true sophomore, tore his ACL in last week's blowout win over New Mexico State As a four-star member of the 2013 recruiting class, Thomas had three sacks and five passes broken up in his freshman campaign.

Maryland QB C.J. Brown is expected to be a game-time decision for Saturday's home game vs. Ohio State. Brown, who injured his (non-throwing) wrist in a 37-15 win at Indiana, has led the Terrapins to a 4-1 record by throwing for 996 yards with a 7/3 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for a team-high 266 yards and five TDs. Caleb Rowe would make his fourth career start if Brown can't play. Rowe, a junior, has completed 21-of-32 throws this year for 316 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio.

Game of the Day: Cardinals at Orange
By Covers.com

Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse Orange (+3, 46.5)

In its final season in the Big East in 2012, Louisville suffered its most lopsided defeat in the Charlie Strong era in Syracuse. The teams meet for the first time since as ACC rivals Friday when the Cardinals visit the Orange. Strong went 37-15 in four seasons at Louisville and entered Syracuse with a 9-0 mark two years ago before the Orange rolled to 45-26 win over the Cardinals, who ended in a four-way tie atop the Big East before upsetting then-No. 4 Florida in the Sugar Bowl.

First-year Louisville coach Bobby Petrino – in his second tour of duty with the Cardinals – had no such problem with Syracuse from 2003-06, winning each of the three meetings by at least 10 points. Louisville, which has won two in a row following last week’s 20-10 comeback victory over Wake Forest, will look forward to improving to 5-1 or better for the third straight season against a Syracuse team that forced five turnovers against No. 8 Notre Dame, only to lose 31-15. A win is critical for the possible bowl hopes of the Orange, who host No. 2 Florida State next week before playing four of their final six games on the road.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line saw the Cardinals as 3.5-point favorites before dropping as low as -1.5 and then rebounding back to Louisville -3. Bettors have been hammering the under causing a drop from 48.5 to 46.5 since opening.

INJURY REPORT: Cardinals - RB L.J. Scott (Ques-Ankle), QB Will Gardner (Out-Knee) Orange - WR Brisly Estime (Ques-Ankle), WR Ashton Broyld (Out-Leg)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Louisville dominated Wake Forest last week despite only winning by 10 points (20-10). The Cardinals had a 421-100 total yards edge, and Wake Forest’s only touchdown came on a fumble recovery in the end zone. Louisville’s defense has been fantastic this season, holding opponents to just 14 points per game on 3.7 yards per play. Syracuse comes in off back-to-back losses to Maryland and Notre Dame. The Orange should hold a big rushing edge in this game as they are averaging 232.5 yards on the ground per game. Syracuse has played good on both sides off the ball despite their 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS record overall." Covers Expert Steve Merril

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (4-1, 2-1 ACC): The Cardinals, who led the nation in rushing defense in 2013 (80.7 yards), are doing it again this season by holding opponents to 58.2 yards through five games after the Demon Deacons recorded minus-22 yards – the lowest total Louisville has allowed to an opponent since 2000. The Cardinals have forced 13 turnovers – the most through five contests since 2005 – nearly half of which have come courtesy of safety Gerod Holliman, who has at least one interception in four games and leads the country with six. Starting quarterback Will Gardner is questionable with a knee injury that forced him to miss the Wake Forest game.

ABOUT SYRACUSE (2-2, 0-0): With Ashton Broyld recovering from a lower leg injury that is expected to keep him out another week or two, Jarrod West stepped up with a career-high eight catches for 103 yards against the Fighting Irish – becoming the 11th receiver in school annals with at least 100 career receptions. Prince Tyson-Gulley, who rushed for 98 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 2012 upset of Louisville, moved into second place in Syracuse history for career catches by a running back with 63. The Orange collected three turnovers in the first quarter against Notre Dame, one more than their season total entering the contest.

TRENDS:

*Cardinals are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games.
*Under is 5-1 in Orange last 6 games following a ATS loss.
*Under is 16-5 in Cardinals last 21 games overall.
*Underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 70.29% of Covers users are backing Louisville -3. Total bettors are near split with 52% on the under.

NCAAF Week 6

Louisville is on road for third time in four weeks; they outgained Wake Forest 421-100 last week but only won 20-10- they're 4-6-1 in last 11 games as a road favorite, losing 23-21 at Virginia three weeks ago. ACC underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in conference games, 2-1 at home. Syracuse allowed 65 points in losing last two games to Maryland/Notre Dame; they're 8-15-1 as home dog since '07. Cardinals won three of last four series games but lost two of last three visits here, getting whacked 45-26 in last visit in '12.

Fresno State beat San Diego State 52-40/35-28 last two years, winning LY despite Aztecs outgaining them 507-341; Bulldogs are 8-5 as home favorites under DeRuyter; they had good win at New Mexico last week, but allowed 52+ points in losing first three games to BCS teams. Aztecs are 10-6 in last 16 games as road dog, 5-4 under Long; they're 0-2 away from home this year, losing by 4-10 at North Carolina/Oregon St.- they are 12-4-1 vs spread in last 17 conference games.

Utah State QB Keeton is out for year; Aggies lost 11 of last 12 games vs BYU, last three by 3-3-17 points. Underdogs covered last six games in series. State lost last seven visits here, covered last three. State was 14-2 as road dog when Anderson was coach here but 1-4 since he left- they're 0-2 on road this year, losing 38-7 (+4.5) at Tennessee, 21-14 last game at Arkansas State (+1.5). BYU is 4-0, scoring 33+ points in every game vs decent schedule; they're 14-10 in last 24 games as home favorite, 0-2 so far this year, winning both home games by eight points.

Armadillosports.com