College Football Betting News and Notes Friday, September 12

Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Toledo at Cincinnati

As of Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Cincinnati (0-0 straight up, 0-0 against the spread) installed as an 11-point home favorite with a total of 59.5. Bettors can back the Rockets on the money line for a +330 return (risk $100 to win $330).

Tommy Tuberville's team went 9-4 both SU and ATS in his first season at the helm after replacing Butch Jones. The Bearcats won nine of their first 11 games, but they lost a 31-24 decision to Louisville as three-point home underdogs in overtime to close the regular season. Then at the Belk Bowl, Cincy got thumped 39-17 by North Carolina as a 2.5-point 'dog.

Cincy returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. QB Brendon Kay is gone and Notre Dame transfer Gunner Kiel has been named the starter for the opener. Kiel, who was an original oral commitment to LSU before changing his mind on Signing Day, was considered the nation's No. 1 prep signal caller in the 2012 class. Things didn't work out in South Bend and we'll see how it goes at Cincy. If Kiel is ineffective, Tuberville has another experienced option in Munchie Legaux, who has 13 career starts and offers a scrambling dynamic. Legaux suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2013 but has recovered and is ready to go Friday if needed.

Cincy posted a 3-2 spread record in five games as a home favorite last season. In six games as a double-digit 'chalk' whether at home or on the road, the Bearcats went 3-3 ATS.

Cincy returns its top three rushers and one of the AAC's top wide receivers in Shaq Washington, who had 999 all-purpose yards in 2013. Washington had 78 receptions for 783 yards. The Bearcats have one of the league's best pass rushers in junior DE Silverberry Mouhon, who was a second-team All-AAC selection after recording 9.5 sacks and seven QB hurries.

Toledo (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) won its opener by a 54-20 count over New Hampshire as an 11-point home favorite. QB Phillip Ely, a transfer from Alabama, completed 24-of-34 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Kareem Hunt rushed for 136 yards and two scores on 20 carries.

Missouri came to The Glass Bowl last week and the oddsmakers gave Toledo plenty of respect, listing it as just a 3.5-point home underdog. This was a bad line, however, and I jumped all over it. Missouri raced out to an early lead and coasted to a 49-24 victory and easy spread cover. The Rockets defense gave up 502 yards of total offense and allowed Maty Mauk to throw five TD passes. On the bright side, Hunt was productive once again, rushing for 148 yards and three TDs on just 15 carries.

The biggest downer coming out of the loss to Missouri was the season-ending injury to Ely, who tore his ACL. The starting job now goes to true sophomore Logan Woodside, who started one game as a freshman when he completed 21-of-41 passes for 240 yards and one TD without an interception. In the second half against the Tigers, Woodside connected on 6-of-10 throws for 52 yards. With Woodside at QB, look for a heavy dose of Hunt, who is averaging 8.1 yards per carry.

Toledo has thrived as a road underdog on Matt Campbell's watch, going 7-1 ATS. Whether at home or away or on a neutral field, the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in five games as double-digit 'dogs during Campbell's tenure.

The 'over' has hit in both of Toledo's games with scoring outputs of 74 and 73 combined points.

These schools squared off at The Glass Bowl two seasons ago, with Toledo capturing a 29-23 win as a six-point home underdog. The Rockets got the victory thanks to a long pick-six and a Bernard Reedy kickoff return for a TD.

Cincy's Nipper Stadium is undergoing expansion and renovation this year, so the Bearcats' home games will be played at the home of the Bengals, Paul Brown Stadium.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

Baylor at Buffalo

As of Wednesday morning, most spots had Baylor (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) installed as a 34-point favorite with a total of 67.5. -- After missing a chance to pad his stats in an easy Week 2 win, Baylor senior QB Bryce Petty has been upgraded to 'probable' and will start against the Bulls. In a 45-0 season-opening home win over SMU, Petty sustained a pair of cracked bones in his lower back. He only played in the first half, connecting on a pair of TD passes and running for another score.

Without Petty, Art Briles' squad cruised to a 70-6 home win over Northwestern State as a 47-point home favorite. Baylor raced out to a 49-3 advantage by halftime. Seth Russell was outstanding in Petty's place, throwing for 438 yards and five TDs without an interception. He also had a rushing score. True freshman WR K.D. Cannon, the prize of the program's 2014 recruiting haul, exploded with six receptions for 223 yards and three TDs. Johnny Jefferson rushed for a team-high 107 yards and one TD, while Silas Nacita had 104 rushing yards and a pair of TDs.

In the win over the Demons, Baylor played without Petty, WR Antwan Goodley, WR Levi Norwood, WR Corey Coleman and WR Clay Fuller. Along with Petty, Coleman has been upgraded to 'probable' for Friday night. However, Goodley (leg) remains 'doubtful,' while Norwood and Fuller are 'out.'

During Briles's seven-year tenure, Baylor is 3-6 ATS in nine games as a road favorite. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in its last seven such spots going back to 2011.

Buffalo (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) failed to cover the spread in a 38-28 Week 1 victory over Duquesne as a 28.5-point home favorite. Joe Licata completed 25-of-36 passes for 298 yards and three TDs, while Anthone Taylor ran for 115 yards and two TDs. Ron Willoughby had 10 receptions for 132 yards and two TDs.

Buffalo lost a 47-39 decision at Army as a three-point underdog last weekend. The Bulls trailed 28-3 midway through the third quarter, but Licata nearly brought them all the way back. The junior signal caller was intercepted three times, which obviously helped create the deficit. However, Licata ended up throwing for 401 yards and five TDs, pulling his team to within eight points with 2:42 remaining on a TD pass and another throw into the end zone to convert a two-point conversion. Marcus McGill had seven catches for 128 yards and two TDs.

Buffalo owns a 5-6 spread record in 11 games as a home underdog during Jeff Quinn's tenure.

When these teams met in Waco last year, Baylor rolled to a 70-13 win as a 27.5-point road 'chalk.' The Bears had 781 yards of total offense with Petty passing for 338 yards and a pair of TDs without an interception.

ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

MAC Doubleheader Betting Preview and Picks
By: Michael Robinson
Sportingnews.com

Two MAC football teams, playing as solid underdogs, will be looking for upsets when they take part in an ESPN family of networks twin-bill on Friday night.

Toledo Rockets at Cincinnati Bearcats (-12, 59)

Line movement: The Wynn opened Cincinnati -13, but quickly moved down to -12. As of midweek, the Wynn remains at that number, but the Bearcats can be found for as low as -10.5 around Las Vegas. Visit our live odds page for updated college football lines. Trends that matter: The OVER is 2-0 for Toledo this year and 7-2 in its last nine overall. Cincinnati was 3-1 SU, but 1-3 ATS in its final four home games last year.

The AAC Bearcats are the only FBS team to have not played a game yet. Their campus venue is being renovated, and they’re sharing the Bengals’ Paul Brown Stadium this year.

Coach Tommy Tuberville is in his second year with the school, going 9-4 last year. He's named sophomore Gunner Kiel, who has yet to throw a pass in a competitive game since transferring from Notre Dame, as his starting QB. Senior Munchie Legaux and junior college transfer Jarred Evans could both also play.

The Rockets (1-1 SU and ATS) started with a win (54-20 as 11.5-point home favorites over FCS New Hampshire), followed by a loss versus Missouri (49-24 as 3.5-point home dogs).

Quarterback Phillip Ely was a combined 41-of-68 for 541 yards (143.6 rating), but suffered a season-ending knee injury in the third quarter last week. Sophomore Logan Woodside or freshman Michael Julian will get the nod on Friday.

The Rockets’ secondary is also suffering injuries at cornerback and is 112th in the nation in passing yards allowed (331.5 YPG). That’s a good sign for Kiel.

Injuries that matter: Toledo quarterback Ely (knee) is out. Cornerback Cameron Cole (knee) is out for the season, and Cheatham Norrils (infection) is out indefinitely.

Weather: Partly cloudy and in the low 60s. See wunderground.com for the latest forecast.

The Linemakers' lean: This is a lot of points for Cincinnati to be laying when the Bearcats haven’t even played a game yet this season and weren't even sure who was starting at QB until this week. Toledo lost its starter, Ely, to an season-ending ACL injury last week against Missouri, but backup Logan Woodside is capable of leading its high-powered offense. They may pull of an outright upset in this spot, so we’re taking the points with Toledo, which is battle-hardened with two games already.

Baylor Bears (-35, 68) at Buffalo Bulls

Baylor easily handled Buffalo last September, racking up 781 yards in total offense and winning 70-13 as 28.5-point home favorites. Fatigue could be a slight factor this week with Baylor playing its third game in 13 days.

The Line: Baylor -35, Total: 68

Line movement: The Wynn opened Baylor -32.5 on Sunday, dropped the line to -31.5 later that same day, drew favorite money at that price and has moved all the way to -35.5 since. As of Wednesday, the Bears can be found for as low as -34 around Las Vegas, and the total sits between 67.5 and 68. Visit our live odds page for updated college football lines from Vegas.

Trends that matter: Baylor is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. The OVER is 10-2 in its last 12 non-conference tilts. Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in its last four games.

The AP No. 8 Bears (2-0 SU and ATS) had easy wins and covers over SMU (45-0) and FCS Northwestern State (70-6). The team was missing star quarterback Bryce Petty for the Northwestern State game last Saturday, as well as receivers Antwan Goodley, Levi Norwood and Corey Coleman.

Heisman candidate Petty is expected to start against Buffalo.

The Bulls (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) started their season with a home win (38-28) over FCS Duquesne before a road loss at Army (47-39). Junior quarterback Joe Licata (396 yards, five TDs and three INTs last game) almost led a comeback against Army after his team trailed 47-17 in the fourth quarter.

Buffalo knows it can’t afford to spot Baylor a big lead, no matter who is playing quarterback. Most of the offensive pressure will be on Licata, as Baylor has a very good rush defense (27 YPG, 1st nationally).

Injuries that matter: Baylor coach Art Briles said earlier this week that he expects Coleman (hamstring) to be back and that Goodley (leg) is about 50/50 to play. Norwood (wrist) is out. Buffalo cornerback Marqus Baker (illness) is questionable after missing the first two games.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the upper 50s with a chance of rain. See wunderground.com for the latest forecast.

Bulls aim to upset No. 8 Baylor
By Sportsbook.ag

Baylor Bears (2-0) vs. Buffalo Bulls (1-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Baylor -34, Total: 67.5

No. 8 Baylor has dominated over its first two contests and looks to remain undefeated when it travels to Buffalo on Friday night.

Baylor has had no issues in its first two games, but that was expected as the team was favored by 31.5 points against SMU and 46.5 points versus Northwestern State. The Bears have outscored their opponents by a score of 115-6 and easily covered both lines while having six scoring plays of 40 yards or more. Against Northwestern State, an FCS team, they totaled an immense 720 total yards while converting 13-of-16 third downs, but surprisingly turned the ball over twice.

Buffalo came away victorious in its first game, winning 38-28, but failed to cover the large 27-point spread as a home favorite against Duquesne. The Bulls followed that up with a 47-39 loss as three-point underdogs against Army in which they were down by 30 points early in the fourth quarter before cutting it down over the final 10 minutes. Turnovers did them in as they outgained the Black Knights 549 to 466, but threw three picks as they attempted to make a comeback.

These programs squared off last year in Waco, TX with Baylor dominating as 28.5-point favorites, winning by a score of 70-13 while they outgained the Bulls 781 to 363 and went turnover free. Before that, the Bears had won both SU and ATS in the matchup in both 2007 and 2010, outscoring Buffalo 68-27 over the two contests.

Trends show that Baylor is 23-10 ATS (70%) after gaining 525+ yards per game in its previous two contests since 1992, while the Bulls are 3-0 ATS after 2+ straight ATS defeats since the start of 2012.

The injury report should be watched for this game as starting QB Bryce Petty (back) and last year’s No. 1 receiver Antwan Goodley (leg) are listed as questionable for Baylor, while Buffalo has no significant injuries on its roster.

Over the first two games of this year, Baylor has averaged 647 YPG (4th in FBS) while throwing for the sixth-most yards (384 YPG) and getting 263 YPG on the ground. They have done most of this without the help of last year’s Big 12 Player of the Year, QB Bryce Petty (161 yards, 2 TD), who missed last week’s game with an injured back. They will not rush his return either since QB Seth Russell, who threw for 438 yards (11.7 YPA) and 5 TD (0 INT) in their most recent contest, has done so well.

The quarterback position in this offense is expected to run, and has already rushed the ball for a touchdown twice this year after Petty and Russell combined for 17 scores on the ground in 2013. The backfield has been comprised of three players so far with HBs Johnny Jefferson (164 yards, 1 TD), Shock Linwood (122 yards, 2 TD) and Silas Nicata (124 yards, 3 TD) all earning 20+ carries over two blowout victories. Linwood is the expected feature back after splitting carries with Lache Seastrunk in 2013 and totaling 881 yards (6.9 YPC) with eight touchdowns.

Meanwhile, freshman WR KD Cannon was explosive against Northwestern State, going for 223 yards (37.2 avg) and already has tallied four touchdowns on the young season. WRs Davion Hall (11 rec, 164 yards, 1 TD) and Jay Lee (10 rec, 158 yards, 2 TD) have been the other workhorses in the passing game thus far with top WR Antwan Goodley missing the first two games.

The Bears have not played any offenses of note so far, so the fact that they have allowed a meager 134 YPG (2nd in FBS) and 3.0 PPG (3rd in FBS) is no real surprise. Buffalo should give them a little more of a test, but LB Bryce Hager (14 tackles) hopes he can lead the team to another impressive performance.

The Buffalo offense has actually played quite well in the early going and ranks in the top-30 in total yards (510.5 YPG) while slinging the ball around for an impressive 347 YPG (16th in FBS). They have scored 38.5 PPG and have shown they can be explosive as they posted 36 points against Army in the second half of their week two loss. The Bulls have a strong offensive line with all five of their starters returning from 2013 and QB Joe Licata (694 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT) has already put forth two performances of 295+ yards.

In the team’s bid to make a comeback against Army, the junior QB was 34-for-49 (69%) with 396 yards (8.1 YPA) and 5 TD while also trying to force the ball, leading to three interceptions. HB Anthone Campbell has carried the workload in the backfield with 194 yards on 46 carries (4.2 YPC) while scoring two touchdowns. He should receive a lot of help from hybrid HB/WR Devin Campbell who has rushed for 78 yards (6.5 YPC) and caught the ball eight times for 67 yards (8.4 avg) with 2 TD.

The Bulls lost nearly all of their WR production from last year but seem to be rebounding quite will as five different players have six or more receptions. The leaders to come out of this group are WRs Ron Willoughby (187 yards, 2 TD) and Marcus McGill (163 yards, 2 TD) who have combined for 25 catches in the first two contests.

The defense has not looked on par over the first two games, and seems to be feeling the loss of LB Khalil Mack as they have allowed 37.5 PPG with 419.5 YPG to their opponents. DB Adam Redden (16 tackles, 2 sacks) and LB Lee Skinner (15 tackles) have a tough task ahead of them with Baylor and hope they can capture some for their defensive prowess from last year when they allowed just 13.2 PPG to opponents at home.

Check out more College Football Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Games of the Day: College Football Doubleheader
By Covers.com

Toledo Rockets at Cincinnati Bearcats (-9.5, 58)

Cincinnati finally get its season going Friday night when it hosts in-state foe Toledo in a non-conference game. While the rest of the nation has been playing for a week or two, the Bearcats have been forced to grind through extra practice, a task that has been difficult for the coaching staff. "We've had to be very imaginative the last few weeks trying to keep our guys focused on what they are doing, trying to get better," coach Tommy Tuberville told reporters Tuesday.

Tuberville - in his first season with Cincinnati last year - guided the Bearcats to a third-place finish in their inaugural American Athletic Conference campaign and a berth in the Belk Bowl. Toledo has already played a pair of games, first topping New Hampshire before a rough first half led to a 49-24 loss at home to No. 22 Missouri last Saturday in a game that saw quarterback Phillip Ely suffering a season-ending ACL tear. Cincinnati leads the series 4-3 but the Rockets have won the last three meetings, including a 29-23 triumph in 2012.

LINE HISTORY: Cincinnati opened as 11-point favorites, but have been bet down to -9.5. The total opened at 59.5 had has moved down a point to sit at 58.5.

INJURY REPORT: Toledo - QB Phillip Ely (out for season, knee), OL Nate Jeppesen (out indefinitely, leg). Cincinnati - QB Munchie Legaux (questionable Friday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There is an eight percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low 70s at gametime. There will also be a six mil per hour wind blowing towards the southwest endzone.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "In Cincinnati we will see the long anticipated debut of former five star recruit Gunner Kiel, who will start at quarterback for the Bearcats. Coming out of high school he was garnering comparisons to Peyton Manning, but he sat out last year after transferring from Notre Dame." Covers Expert Jesse Shule

ABOUT TOLEDO (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Ely will be replaced by Logan Woodside, who took over against Missouri following the injury and was 6-for-10 for 52 yards. Woodside, a sophomore, saw sporadic action last season, going 21-for-41 for 240 yards and a touchdown. His inexperience should allow the Bearcats to give their attention to running back Kareem Hunt, who ran for 148 yards and three touchdowns last weekend and is averaging 8.1 yards per carry through his first two games.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (2013: 9-4, 6-7 ATS, 7-6 O/U): The Bearcats are also breaking in an inexperienced, albeit highly touted, quarterback in sophomore transfer Gunner Kiel, who was the nation's top quarterback prospect coming out of high school before redshirting at Notre Dame. Tuberville said that while Kiel is the No. 1 guy and has impressed in preseason practice, others could see action against Toledo under center. One of those options is senior Munchie Legaux, who is coming back from a knee injury that ended his 2013 campaign after two games.

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
* Bearcats are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games.
* Under is 8-1 in the Rockets last 9 road games.
* Over is 4-1 in the Bearcats last 5 home games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Almost 60 percent of wagers are backing the Bearcats at -9.5.

Baylor Bears at Buffalo Bulls (+34.5, 69.5)

Quarterback Bryce Petty returns to the lineup when No. 7 Baylor and its high-flying offense travel to Buffalo on Friday. "He's healthy. He's in good shape,'' Bears coach Art Briles told reporters before Tuesday's practice about Petty, who missed last week's 70-6 victory over FCS member Northwestern State with a back injury. Briles, though, said it is unlikely that wide receivers Corey Coleman (hamstring) and Antwan Goodwin will play.

Baylor didn't seem to miss its Heisman Trophy-hopeful quarterback or its top four receivers last week as backup Seth Russell and a host of freshmen playmakers racked up 720 yards. The Baylor defense has been equally dominant, allowing a total of six points and 269 yards to Northwestern State and Southern Methodist. The Bulls scored in bunches - getting five second-half touchdown passes from Joe Licata - as a late rally fell short in a 47-39 loss to Army.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Baylor as huge 34-point favorites and it now sits at Bears -34.5. The total has been bet up two points after opening at 67.5 and now sits at 69.5.

INJURY REPORT: Baylor - QB Bryce Petty (probable Friday, spine), WR Antwan Goodley (doubtful Friday, leg), WR Corey Coleman (doubtful Friday, hamstring), RB Devin Chafin (out Friday, ankle). Buffalo - DB Marqus Baker (doubtful Friday, illness).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid 50s and an eight percent chance of rain. There will also be a five mile per hour wind blowing the southwest corner of the south endzone.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "In Buffalo all eyes are on Bryce Petty, who expected to return to action after sitting out last week with a back injury. The Bears didn't miss him much though, scoring 70 points in a blowout win over Northwestern State." Covers Expert Jesse Shule

ABOUT BAYLOR (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Freshman speedster KD Cannon is sixth nationally with 141 receiving yards per game and has four touchdowns after scoring on 50-, 81- and 42-yard plays last week. Freshman Davion Hall has 11 catches for 164 yards and a touchdown this season and freshman Johnny Jefferson is one of three Bears - joining Shock Linwood and Silas Nacita - with more than 120 rushing yards through two games. The Baylor defense, which has not allowed a touchdown, is ranked third nationally in scoring (three points allowed per game), first in rushing defense (27 yards per game), second in total defense (134.5 yards) and tied for first with six sacks per game.

ABOUT BUFFALO (1-1, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Licata is 60-of-86 for 699 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Ron Willoughby (187 receiving yards), Marcus McGill (168 receiving yards) and Devin Campbell (67 receiving, 78 rushing) each have two touchdown catches. The Bulls, who lost at Baylor 70-13 last year, are tied for 110th among the 124 FBS teams in points allowed (37.5) and 90th in yards allowed (419.5).

TRENDS:

* Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Over is 10-2 in the Bears in their last 12 non-conference games.
* Over is 7-0 in the Bulls last seven non-conference games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Just over 72 percent of wagers are on Baylor at -34.5.

NCAAF Week 3

Long-awaiting debut of nomadic QB Kiel, who committed to three clubs before he got to Cincinnati. Bearcats are last D-I team to tee it up; they are 11-7 as home favorites last three years, 3-2 under Tuberville. Toledo got hammered at home by former coach Pinkel's Mizzou squad last week; now they face Bearcat squad they upset 29-23 (+6) two years ago. Toledo covered 12 of last 16 as road dog, 7 of 8 under Campbell.

Baylor QB Petty (back) expected to play against Buffalo squad that lost 70-13 (+37) in Waco LY, with Bears gaining 781 yards, averaging around 18 yards per pass attempt. Buffalo is 5-3 in last eight games as a home dog; they lost seven starters on defense, gave up 341 rushing yards last week to Army, which tried only seven passes (7-7/125). Baylor covered only one of last seven as a road favorite, eight of last 11 outside Big X.

Armadillosports.com