College Football Betting News and Notes Friday, September 1st, 2017

College Football Week 1

Eastern Michigan was 7-6 LY, after being 7-41 the previous four years; Eagles have a senior QB with 23 starts but its whole OL has only 26 starts returning. Since 2007, EMU is 3-10 vs spread as a home favorite- they’ve got 16 starters back overall. Charlotte is 5-6-1 as a road underdog, 2-5 in last seven non-league games. 49ers have a junior QB with seven starts, an OL with 47 returning starts. Charlotte has 12 starters back overall. Last two years, MAC teams are 10-3-1 vs spread when facing teams from C-USA.

Washington is +35 in turnovers in its last 41 games; their OL has 97 returning starts- since 2014, they’re 6-3 as a road favorite. Huskies have a junior QB with 26 starts. Washington does not have a Pac-12 game for three weeks. Rutgers is 4-6 vs spread in its last ten games as a home underdog; their OL has 42 returning starts. Scarlet Knights have two QB’s with some experience to choose from. Since 2013, Big 14 teams are 15-10-1 vs spread when playing Pac-12 teams.

Lane Kiffin makes his Florida Atlantic home debut against 15-point road favorite Navy, which is 5-1 vs spread in last six games as a road favorite. Middies have only 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense; their junior QB has two career starts. FAU has 17 starters back; their OL has 83 returning starts, Owls covered once in their last seven games as a home underdog. Kendall Briles is FAU’s offensive coordinator; Owls are going to throw the ball a lot.

Wisconsin has a soph QB (9 starts) but has an experienced OL with 4 starters back (90 career starts). Since 2014, Badgers are 8-10-1 vs spread as a home favorite- they’ve got 15 starters back overall. Utah State has only 10 starters back but their senior QB has 25 career starts. Aggies are 5-9 vs spread as road underdogs under Wells. USU has only ten starters back, five on both sides of the ball. Let four years, Big 14 teams are 12-9 vs spread when playing a team from the Mountain West.

Colorado State had 525 TY, 31 FD in 58-27 win over Oregon State last week. Colorado is 7-3 in its last ten games with State; they crushed the Rams 44-7 LY, outgaining CSU 578-225. Buffs lost 8 starters on defense; they’ve got 9 starters back on offense but their QB has only 3 career starts. Since 2013, Colorado is 11-4 vs spread as a favorite. State is 8-3 as an underdog under Bobo; they’ve got 8 starters back on defense, and a senior QB wth 21 starts. Underdogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight series games. Last two years, Pac-12 teams are 14-8-1 vs spread when facing a Mountain West squad.

Armadillosports.com

Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

There are six lined games set for Friday of Week 1 in college football. Washington begins its quest to get back to the College Football Playoff by heading across the country into New Jersey. Wisconsin is at home looking to avoid an upset bid from Utah State that nearly resulted in a shocking loss at Camp Randall five years ago.

We’ll tackle those two games before touching on the others in Bonus Nuggets.

Washington at Rutgers

As of Tuesday, most betting shops had Washington installed as a 27.5-point road favorite with a total of 52 for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Huskies opened as 31-point ‘chalk’ at most books in late June, but the number was heavily adjusted Monday morning.

When these schools met last season in the opener at Husky Stadium, Washington raced out to a 48-3 third-quarter lead en route to a 48-13 spread-covering victory as a 25-point home ‘chalk.’ The 61 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 56-point total thanks to RU’s 10-yard TD run from Janarion Grant with 5:53 remaining. The Scarlet Knights committed three turnovers and allowed the Huskies to score a pair of touchdowns on special teams. UW’s Jake Browning completed 18-of-27 throws for 287 yards and three TDs with one interception. Dante Pettis had a 68-yard punt return for a score. Grant had nine catches for 56 yards in the losing effort. He combined for 160 all-purpose yards on 18 total touches.

Washington went 12-2 straight up and 7-7 against the spread last season. The Huskies made the College Football Playoff for the first time in school history, losing 24-7 to Alabama in the semifinals as 14-point underdogs at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta. They beat four ranked teams, including a 41-10 win as 7.5-point ‘chalk’ over Colorado at the Pac-12 Championship Game. Chris Petersen’s only other defeat came at home to Southern Cal by a 26-13 count. UW had notable scalps vs. Stanford (44-6), at Utah (31-24) and at Washington State (45-17).

Washington returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. With the exception of leading receiver John Ross, Petersen’s squad brings back all of its skill players on offense. Browning, a junior who has already started 26 games and garnered fourth-team All-American honors in 2016, completed 62.1 percent of his passes last year for 3,430 yards with a 43/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Pettis also returns after hauling in 53 receptions for 822 yards and 15 TDs. Junior RB Myles Gaskin earned first-team All Pac-12 honors by rushing for 1,373 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Gaskin also had 19 catches for 137 yards and one TD. Senior RB Lavon Coleman provided excellent depth, rushing for 852 yards and seven TDs with a 7.5 YPC average.

Washington’s defense gave up merely 17.7 points per game in 2016. This unit is led by two senior linebackers in Keishawn Bierria and Azeem Victor and a pair of junior defensive tackles, Greg Gaines and Vita Vea. There’s also a true sophomore safety in Taylor Rapp, who was a second-team Freshman All-American after recording 53 tackles and four interceptions. Bierria had 70 tackles, two sacks, three tackles for loss, and two passes broken up, while Victor produced 67 tackles and three TFL’s. Vea had 39 tackles, five sacks, 1.5 TFL’s, two PBU and two QB hurries, and Gaines tallied 35 tackles, 3.5 sacks and 4.5 TFL’s.

UW announced Monday a one-game suspension for Victor and a two-game suspension for reserve CB Austin Joyner, who had 10 tackles and one interception in 12 games as a freshman last year. Also, starting sophomore LB D.J. Beavers is out indefinitely with a foot injury. Beavers started four games in ’16, contributing 40 tackles, 0.5 TFL’s, one interception and one PBU.

Washington owns a 6-3 spread record in nine games as a road favorite during Petersen’s first three years at the school. The Huskies are just 2-3 versus the number in five games as double-digit road ‘chalk’ under Petersen. This is their biggest road favorite spot since Petersen took over.

Rutgers limped to a 2-10 SU record and a 4-8 ATS mark in its first season under head coach Chris Ash, who came to RU after two seasons of serving as co-DC at Ohio State under Urban Meyer. The Scarlet Knights got their only wins of ’16 at home over Howard (52-14) and New Mexico (37-28). They finished the year on a nine-game losing streak, dropping six of those nine (and seven total) by double-digit margins, including losses of 58-0 at Ohio State, 78-0 vs. Michigan, 49-0 at Michigan State and 39-0 vs. Penn State. RU was -2,010 net yards for the season with a minus-five turnover margin.

Rutgers brings back six starters on offense and eight on defense. The new starting QB is Kyle Bolin, a grad transfer from Louisville who was stuck on the bench behind last year’s Heisman Trophy winner, Lamar Jackson. In three years at U of L that included six starts under center, Bolin completed 58 percent of his passes for 2,104 yards with a 13/10 TD-INT ratio.

Grant is RU’s best player who went down with a season-ending injury in the fourth game last year. He is a three-time All-Big Ten selection as a return specialist. Before getting injured in ’16, he had already produced 20 catches for 210 yards. Also, Grant had rushed for 138 yards and three TDs on just 16 attempts for an 8.6 YPC average. He also had two TDs on special teams.

When Bolin isn’t targeting Grant, his next-favorite target will be sophomore Jawuan Harris, who had a team-high 39 receptions for 481 yards and three TDs in ’16. RU also returns its leading rusher in senior Robert Martin, who had 625 yards for two TDs with a 5.2 YPC average.

After RU’s offense averaged an abysmal 15.7 PPG last season, Ash hired former Minnesota and No. Illinois head coach Jerry Kill as his new offensive coordinator. This is the eighth different OC at RU in eight years.

RU’s defense surrendered 37.5 PPG in ’16. This unit brings back its top two tacklers, junior LB Trevor Morris (102, 1 sack) and junior LB Deonte Roberts (95, 1 INT).

Utah State at Wisconsin

As of Tuesday, most books had Wisconsin favored by 27.5 points with a total of 52. The Aggies were 35/1 on the money line at 5Dimes.eu (risk $100 to win $3,500).

Wisconsin finished ’16 with an 11-3 SU record and a stellar 10-3-1 ATS mark. The Badgers’ losses came against teams that were ranked second, fourth and eighth in the nation at the time. They covered the spread in losses at Michigan (14-7 as 10.5-point underdogs) and vs. Ohio State (30-23 in overtime as 10.5-point ‘dogs), and the other defeat came to Penn State (38-31) at the Big Ten Championship Game. Wisconsin had three victories over top-10 teams at the time they played, winning 30-6 at eighth-ranked Michigan State in Week 4. The Badgers also knocked off fifth-ranked LSU (16-14) in the season opener at Lambeau Field and beat seventh-ranked Nebraska 23-17 in overtime.

Wisconsin won a 24-16 decision over previously-undefeated and 12th-ranked Western Michigan at the Cotton Bowl, hooking up its backers as a 7.5-point favorite.

Paul Chryst’s team is 21-6 SU and 17-9-1 ATS since he took over for Gary Andersen in 2015. He was Wisconsin’s offensive coordinator from 2005-11 when the school set offensive records galore. Chryst was the head coach at Pitt from 2012-14, taking the Panthers to three bowl games while going 19-19.

Wisconsin owns a 5-4-1 spread record with one outright loss in nine games as a double-digit home favorite during Chryst’s tenure.

Wisconsin already lost All-American candidate Jack Cichy to a season-ending ACL tear a few weeks ago. In seven games before getting injured last season, Cichy had 60 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL’s, two PBU and three QB hurries. Now sophomore LB Zack Baun (foot) is out for the season. Baun had 15 tackles and 3.5 TFL’s last year. Reserve RB Taiwan Deal is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. Deal rushed 32 times for 164 yards last year, averaging 5.1 YPC.

Wisconsin returns eight starters on offense and six on defense. The defense gave up merely 15.6 PPG and had 34 sacks. This unit was led by rising junior LB T.J. Edwards, who produced 89 tackles, three sacks, 5.5 TFL’s, three interceptions, three QB hurries, two PBU and one forced fumble despite missing the first two games of the year. Senior safety D’Cota Dixon is another standout player, registering 60 tackles, four interceptions, four QB hurries, four PBU, one sack, 1.5 TFL’s, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery in ’16.

As a redshirt freshman last year, Alex Hornibrook started nine games at QB. The southpaw completed 58.6 percent of his passes for 1,262 yards with a 9/7 TD-INT ratio. The Badgers are hoping he can make a big jump in improvement in ’17. Hornibrook will have his two favorite targets back, senior WR Jazz Peavy and senior TE Troy Fumagalli, a second-team All Big-Ten pick last season. Peavy had 43 receptions for 635 yards and five TDs, while Fumagalli hauled in 47 catches for 580 yards and two TDs.

Utah State missed out on the postseason last season for the first time since 2010. The Aggies finished a second straight campaign with a losing record after winning 19 games in the first two years of Matt Wells’s tenure. They went 4-8 ATS in ’16, going 1-3 ATS in four outings as road underdogs. Utah State is 5-9 versus the number in 14 games as a road ‘dog on Wells’s watch.

Utah State brings back 10 of 22 starters, five on each side of the ball. The Aggies went winless in six road assignments last season, limping to an atrocious 1-5 spread record.

Utah State led 14-3 at intermission in its last trip to Camp Randall in 2012. However, when the Aggies missed a short field goal on the game’s final play, Wisconsin won a 16-14 decision despite never threatening to cover as a 14-point home favorite. During that banner campaign, Utah State finished 11-2 with its lone defeats coming at Wisconsin and at BYU by a 6-3 score.

Utah State senior QB Kent Myers has started 25 career games. He has a 31/14 TD-INT ratio in those three seasons, but he only had 10 TD passes and eight interceptions during 12 starts in 2016. Myers completed a career-low 58.0 percent of his passes for 2,389 yards. Myers rushed for 449 yards and six TDs last season. Myers has his favorite target back in the mix. Ron’quavion Tarver had 46 catches for 602 yards and three TDs. Tonny Lindsey also returns after rushing for a team-best 763 yards and six TDs with a 5.2 YPC average.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

The Lane Kiffin Era in Boca Raton will get started Friday night when Florida Atlantic plays host to Navy at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU. As of Tuesday, most spots had the Midshipmen listed as a 10.5-point road ‘chalk’ with a total of 68.5 points. The Owls were +300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300). Ken Niumatalolo’s squad went 9-5 both SU and ATS last year, ending the season on a three-game losing streak, including a 48-45 loss to La. Tech at the Armed Forces Bowl. The Middies took the cash, however, as seven-point underdogs against the Bulldogs. Navy brings back four starters on offense and eight on defense. FAU went 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS in ’16. The Owls return nine starters on offense and eight on defense. WR Kalib Woods “is not on our football team,” according to recent remarks from Kiffin. Woods was arrested for his part in a fight during the summer and charged with two felony battery counts, though his lawyers have made a motion to have the charges dismissed. Woods led FAU with 68 catches for 934 yards and one TD in ’16.

Colorado and Colorado State will square off in Denver at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on the Pac-12 Network. According to recent reports, this rivalry will move back to being play on campus rather than in the Mile High City after this encounter. One reason for this is CSU’s new stadium that opened last Saturday with the Rams thumping Oregon State by a 58-27 count as 3.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 85 combined points soared ‘over’ the 60-point total. Nick Stevens threw for 334 yards and three TDs compared to just one interception. Michael Gallup had 11 receptions for 134 yards, while Tre Thomas had a 44-yard pick-six as one of five turnovers forced by the CSU defense. CSU has lost back-to-back games to Colorado and three of the last four, including a 44-6 beatdown in ’16. Mike MacIntyre’s squad is coming off a breakout campaign, as it won the Pac-12 South and finished with a 10-4 record. The Buffaloes return nine starters on offense and three on defense. As of Tuesday, most spots had the Buffaloes favored by 5.5 points with a total of 66. The Rams were +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

Eastern Michigan is a 14-point home favorite vs. Charlotte for Friday’s 6:30 p.m. Eastern kick of a non-televised affair. The total is 57 points, while the 49ers are +450 to win outright.

As of Tuesday, Boston College was favored by three (with some extra -115 or -120 juice) or 3.5 for its opener at Northern Illinois. The total was in the 51-52 range. These schools met at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill in ’15, with BC capturing a 17-14 victory. However, the Huskies covered the number as five-point road underdogs. BC went 7-6 both SU and ATS last season and returns eight starters on offense and seven on defense. Keep an eye on the Eagles’ senior DE Harold Landry, a fourth-team All-American last year when he had 51 tackles, 16 sacks, 5.5 TFL’s, seven forced fumbles, seven QB hurries, four PBU and one interception. The Eagles are 3-4 ATS as road favorites during Steve Addazio’s tenure. NIU won at least 11 games in five consecutive seasons from 2010-14, but it has gone 8-6 and 5-7 over the last two campaigns. The Huskies, who are 0-2 ATS as home ‘dogs on Rod Carey’s watch, bring back five starters on offense and seven on defense. They lost four one-possession games in ’16. This game will kick at 9:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network.

Baylor starting safeties Davion Hall and Henry Black have been injured since the start of training camp. Now sophomore CB Grayland Arnold is out for 6-8 weeks after undergoing surgery Sunday on his broken arm. In addition, senior DB Travon Blanchard has transferred to Texas A&M-Commerce and will play right away. In fact, he practiced with the FCS Lions this past Friday and will play this week vs. North Alabama. Blanchard was a second-team All Big-12 selection last year when he recorded 73 tackles, 7.5 TFL’s, 1.5 sacks, five PBU, one interception and one QB hurry. And finally, RB Terrence Williams is out indefinitely for undisclosed reasons. Williams rushed for 1,048 yards and 11 TDs in ’16, averaging 5.7 YPC. Fortunately for the Bears, they open with cupcake home games vs. Liberty and UTSA.

Lowly Rutgers hosts #8 Washington
By: StatFox.com

#8 Washington travels to New Jersey for a cupcake matchup start to their national title mission.

Head coach Chris Petersen’s third year at Washington was a rousing success, culminating in a CFP berth. Though the 24-7 semifinal loss to Alabama was a bitter end to the season, the Huskies have plenty of room for optimism this year. QB Jake Browning and RBs Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman are all elite talents who return behind a dominant offensive line. The defense has questions to answer in the secondary, but has one of the nation’s best front sevens. Rutgers is 1-16 in conference play as a Big Ten team, and is rarely competitive against power conference teams. Their pathetic 2016 season featured September wins over FCS Howard and New Mexico, followed by nine-straight losses by an average of 30.4 points to close the year. Becoming the laughing stock of Division I men’s athletics is a small price to pay for the TV money, and it appears it will be a long time until legitimate power conference football is being played in Piscataway. Former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill is the new RU offensive coordinator, inheriting a unit with some decent athletes, but poor QB options and a recent history of futility. The defense is equally poor. The secondary could be decent, but the linemen and linebackers will again be overwhelmed by most running attacks they face. In their only previous meeting, Washington torched Rutgers in Seattle to open the 2016 season, jumping out to a 48-0 lead and ultimately winning 48-13 and covering the 25-point line. Under Petersen, Washington is 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS as road favorites, though they failed to cover their last three games when favored by more than 20 (Portland St., Oregon St. Arizona St.) last season. Since 2014, Rutgers is 0-8 SU & ATS when an underdog of 20 or more.

Washington’s offense racked up 41.8 points per game (8th in the nation) last season, and breakout star QB Jake Browning (3,430 passing yards, 43 TD) is a true Heisman hopeful. The RB duo of Myles Gaskin (1,510 yards from scrimmage, 11 TD) and Lavon Coleman (852 rushing yards, 7 TD, 7.5 yards per carry) might be the best backfield rotation in the country. Coleman’s bruising power runs are a perfect complement to Gaskin’s speed and athleticism. The offensive line should once again be stellar, anchored by versatile C Coleman Shelton and First Team All Pac-12 OT Trey Adams, who is 6’8” and surprisingly nimble. The only concern on offense for the Huskies is at receiver after the departure of WR John Ross (1,150 yards, 17 TD). WR Dante Pettis (822 yards, 15 TD) is up to the task of being a No. 1 option, and pint-sized WR Chico McClatcher, a former tailback, is a speedster who does damage from anywhere in the formation. UW held opponents to just 17.7 points per game (8th in FBS) and 4.6 yards per play (4th) in 2016. The secondary allowed 5.7 yards per pass attempt (4th in FBS), but three Huskies DBs were drafted by the NFL in April (CBs Kevin King and Sidney Jones, and S Budda Baker). S Taylor Rapp (53 total tackles, 4 INT) was the Pac-12’s Freshman Defensive Player of the Year, but he’ll be surrounded by unproven teammates in 2017. The linebacking group will be a strength, particularly up the middle with LBs Azeem Victor (67 total tackles, 3 TFL in 10 games) and Keishawn Bierria (70 total tackles, 5 TFL, 5 fumble recoveries), who, respectively, were First and Second Team All-Pac-12 performers last season. 340-pound DT Vita Vea (5 sacks, 6.5 TFL), a potential first-round draft pick, anchors the stalwart defensive line.

Former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill takes over as coordinator for a Rutgers offense that finished last in yardage (282 yards per game) and second-to-last in points (15.7 points per game with four shutouts) last season. Gio Rescigno (889 passing yards, 5 passing TD, 5 INT, 2 rushing TD in 7 games) is the frontrunner to start at QB. WR Janarion Grant was limited to four games because of an ankle injury, but was granted an extra year of eligibility. He’s the best playmaker the Scarlet Knights have, with eight career return TD, and he’s an effective gadget player on offense, having tallied 348 yards from scrimmage and three TD in his four 2016 appearances. Leading receiver WR Jawuan Harris (39 receptions, 481 yards, 3 TD) also returns, and graduate transfer WR Damon Mitchell, who played QB, RB and WR at Arkansas, should add some life to the offense. Leading rusher RB Robert Martin (625 rushing yards, 2 TD) returns, as does RB Josh Hicks, who ran for 674 yards and four TD in 2015 before falling on the depth chart last season. RB Gus Edwards, a graduate transfer from Miami, is slated for an H-back role. A lot will be asked of inexperienced front-seven players this season after RU allowed 37.5 points per game last season (116th in FBS). DT Sebastian Joseph anchors the defensive line, and DE Kemoko Turay will see an increased role after showing promise as a backup last season. LB Tyreek Maddox-Williams was a solid contributor as a freshman last season, and LBs Trevor Morris (102 total tackles, 3.5 TFL) and Deonte Roberts (95 total tackles, 3 TFL) have experience. The secondary could be a strength, though teams may rarely need to throw against the Knights. Safeties Kiy Hester (6.5 TFL in 8 games) and Saquan Hampton (46 total tackles and 3 TFL in 7 games) will be effective if they can stay healthy, while CB Blessuan Austin (14 pass breakups) was probably Rutgers’ best defensive player in 2016.

NCAAF Game of the Day: Colorado State at Colorado
Covers.com

Colorado State Rams at Colorado Buffaloes (-3.5, 66.5)

Fresh off one of the more surprising turnarounds of 2016, Colorado kicks off a new season Friday in its annual Rocky Mountain Showdown contest against Colorado State in Denver. The Rams, meanwhile, don’t look to be the 44-7 pushover they were a year ago in this matchup, having opened their season with a 58-27 thumping of the Pac-12’s Oregon State in Fort Collins on Saturday.

The Buffaloes jumped from 4-9 in 2015 to 10-4 a season ago, going 8-1 in conference play en route to the Pac-12 South Division title. The season, dubbed by the program as “The Rise,” didn’t exactly have a storybook ending, though, as Colorado was crushed by Washington 41-10 in the conference championship game and routed by Oklahoma State 38-8 in the Alamo Bowl. Entering 2017, the Buffaloes are predicted to finish fourth in South by conference media members, and coach Mike MacIntyre - winner of several 2016 national coach-of-the-year honors - says it’s on his team to quiet the "one-season wonder" chatter. “We have a lot to prove,” MacIntyre said last month during his Pac-12 Media Days news conference. “We’re still a team that people don’t believe in, and we’d like for people to believe in us. The only way you do that is put back-to-back (strong seasons) together, and that’s what we plan on doing.”

LINE HISTORY: Colorado opened as eight-point favorites and that number has been bet way down to -3.5. The total hit the betting boards at 66.5 and has yet to move. Follow the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Colorado State - OL Ben Knox (Doubtful, undisclosed), LB Deonte Clyburn (Out For Season, Calf), WR E.J. Scott (Out For Season, Knee), S Braylin Scott (Out Indefinitely, Personal)

Colorado - RB Kyle Evans (Probable, Hip), RB Donovan Lee (Out Indefinitely, Leg), WR Jaylon Jackson (Out For Season, Ankle), DB Anthony Julmisse (Out Indefinitely, Suspension)

ABOUT COLORADO (2016: 2016: 10-4 SU, 10-4 ATS, 5-9 O/U): Sophomore quarterback Steven Montez has the difficult task of replacing the school's all-time passing yards leader, Sefo Liufau, after throwing for 1,017 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions in 10 games (three starts) last season. He’ll have plenty of help with the Buffaloes returning their top four wide receivers, four starting offensive linemen and second-team All-Pac 12 tailback Phillip Lindsay, but there are questions on defense as Colorado must replace eight starters, including a trio of NFL draft picks in the secondary.

ABOUT COLORADO STATE (2016: 7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U): The Rams opened their new and sold-out on-campus stadium in style Saturday, outscoring the visiting Beavers 34-7 in the second half. Quarterback Nick Stevens threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns, the ground game produced 191 yards and three TDs and the defense forced five turnovers, which directly led to 27 of the Rams’ 57 points. Wide receiver Michael Gallup got a good start after his preseason All-Mountain West Conference First Team recognition, hauling in 11 passes for 134 yards to post his sixth straight 100-yard receiving performance dating to last season.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games in September.
* Under is 8-2 in Buffaloes last 10 games overall.
* Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home chalk Buffaloes are picking up 61 percent of the action from users and the Over is picking up 62 percent of the totals wagers.

Friday's College Football Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

Utah State Aggies vs Wisconsin Badgers

Odds: Wisconsin (-27.5); Total 52.5

The Wisconsin Badgers enter 2017 as the favorites to take home the West Division title in the Big 10 Conference this year, and they begin their path towards that goal as heavy home favorites tonight.

Being heavy favorites this early in the season is typically nothing new for the Badgers, and bettors who backed this program a year ago were handsomely rewarded. Wisconsin finished the year 9-3-1 ATS, but were the benefactors of being sizeable underdogs against some elite competition they faced throughout the year (Ohio State, Michigan, LSU).

Laying heavy chalk like this can be problematic for a Wisconsin program that prides itself on size, strength, and running the ball, and oddsmakers have already seen a significant move on this game against the Badgers. Is there still value in grabbing the points with Utah State?

Is there now value on the Badgers at a lower number? Or should we be looking at the total here?

Let's get right to the breakdown.

This line opened up in the -29 range for the Badgers and early bettors jumped all over the points basically from the outset there. However, it's been almost two months since that opening number was released, and there has been some back-and-forth action going both ways since then, before it's settled on the -27.5 range we are at now.

The Badgers may be the favorite to win their division in the Big 10, but their style of play isn't conducive to covering big numbers (unless they own the turnover battle and snap off a few big runs) like the one we've got tonight. That has to be some of the thinking behind those who've grabbed Utah State already, and gun to my head, I'm inclined to agree with it.

Utah State is hoping to bounce back from a disappointing 2016 campaign that saw them get just three wins, but they are a youthful team in 2017 as nearly half their starters from a year ago have graduated. Replacing that many guys with starting-level talent is going to be extremely tough for the Aggies at least early on, but the silver lining in all that is that many of this year's starters saw plenty of playing time a year ago when HC Matt Wells knew the 2016 season was a lost one. The Aggies still have their starting QB, and top RB and WR from a year ago, so there is plenty of hope still in that locker room, but even with the line move coming their way, I still want to wait a week or two and see how this Utah State team performs before I decided to back or fade them.

Which brings me tonight's total, which like the side has already seen a significant amount of action one way.

This total opened up at 48.5 about a week ago and has basically only seen 'over' action since then. We've already seen plenty of high-scoring games through two full days of CFB action this year, and any CFB total below 50 is typically going to get pounded on the high side.

VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers show more than 85% of the action is on this 'over' tonight, and for those who have Utah State ATS tickets in their pocket, an 'over' bet makes sense. If you believe Utah State will score a few times and stay within the hefty point spread, then it's going to be awfully tough for this game not to go 'over.'

However, I've never been one to routinely join the masses here, and given the prevailing styles of basically both teams – they are both run-first squads that rely on tight defense too – I'm not so sure we get to 50+ points tonight.

Crossing through that key number of 51 (and if it gets as high as 53 before kickoff I like the 'under' even more), is a significant move, and the lone history these two schools have is a 16-14 home win for Wisconsin at the beginning of the 2012 season.

Obviously there aren't any players left in tonight's game that played then, but styles make fights, and these two programs have not changed their styles since then. Tonight's game will feature plenty of handoffs as both sides look to establish their dominance in the trenches, and a constantly running clock is going to make it hard to get to 53 points if we don't get multiple 70+ yard runs.

Both programs – and likely based on their running and defense-first styles – are no strangers to low-scoring games early on in a season, as Wisconsin is 1-5 O/U in their last six September games, and Utah State is 2-6 O/U in their last eight contests during this month.

Utah State is also 1-4 O/U in their last five non-conference clashes, while Wisconsin is 1-6 O/U against non-conference foes, part of which includes a 2-7 O/U run against schools from the Mountain West. All of that adds up to this total having much more value on the low side thanks to the majority of money going the other way, and I'm expecting this game to stay below this current total.

Best Bet: Under 52.5