MIDDLE TENN ST (2 - 2) at OLD DOMINION (3 - 1) - 9/26/2014, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
FRESNO ST (1 - 3) at NEW MEXICO (1 - 2) - 9/26/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NEW MEXICO is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
FRESNO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. OLD DOMINION
Middle Tennessee is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Middle Tennessee's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Old Dominion's last 6 games
Old Dominion is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
RESNO STATE vs. NEW MEXICO
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Fresno State's last 9 games on the road
Fresno State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
New Mexico is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
New Mexico is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Mid Tennesse State at Old Dominion
Mid Tenn St: 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses ATS
Old Dominion: 4-0 after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins
Fresno State at New Mexico
Fresno St: 15-29 ATS in road games in weeks 5 through 9
New Mexico: 39-21 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Game of the Day: Fresno State at New Mexico
By Covers.com
Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos (+5, 71.5)
The Fresno State Bulldogs know exactly what to expect from the New Mexico Lobos on Friday night: a whole lot of running plays. The Lobos look to build on a spectacular rushing performance last week against New Mexico State as they entertain the Bulldogs in the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams. New Mexico earned its first victory of the season in style, racking up 432 yards on 52 carries to earn a thrilling 38-35 victory over the rival Aggies.
Fresno State finally got its act together following three straight one-sided losses, riding a pair of Brian Burrell touchdown passes and 117 rushing yards and a score from Marteze Waller to a 56-16 drubbing of Southern Utah. It was an impressive all-around performance for the Bulldogs, who had surrendered at least 50 points in each of their first three games. New Mexico will be seeking revenge after dropping a humiliating 69-28 decision to Fresno State last Nov. 23.
LINE HISTORY: The line has dropped one point after opening at New Mexico +6. The over/under has slipped two points to 71.
INJURY REPORT: Fresno State: WR Dillon Root (leg) is probable; DB Shannon Edwards (shoulder) is questionable; RB Malique Micenheimer (shoulder), RB Dontel James (leg) and RB Kurt Scoby (concussion) are out. New Mexico: WR Carlos Wiggins (hamstring), QB Cole Gautsche (hamstring), Teriyon Gipson (ankle) and QB Caleb Kimbro (knee) are questionable; DE Nik D'Avanzo (knee) is doubtful; OL Aaron Jenkins (shoulder), OT Johnny Vizcaino (concussion), LB Richard Winston (knee) and S Daniel Henry (shoulder) are out.
WEATHER: Rain is in the forecast for University Stadium with temperatures expected to be in the mid-80s.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Fresno State (+6.7) - New Mexico (+3.2) + home field (-3.0) = New Mexico -6.5
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "After a 0-3 SU/ATS start to the season, Fresno State took their frustrations out on a weaker FCS Southern Utah team last Saturday with an easy 56-16 win. However, Fresno State was not impressive in their three FBS games this year, allowing 52, 59, and 55 points defensively each time. The Bulldogs are obviously down this season after losing six starters on offense, including QB Derek Carr. However, the defense did return eight starters and their top six tacklers from last season, so no excuse for the horrendous start this month. A huge line adjustment from last year's game when Fresno State was a -34.5 point favorite and won easily 69-28 with an incredible 822-316 total yard edge." Covers Expert Steve Merril
ABOUT FRESNO STATE (1-3 SU, 4-0 O/U): The Bulldogs meant business against Southern Utah, racking up 680 yards of total offense while scoring all of their points over the final three quarters. Five different Fresno State players have at least 100 receiving yards - led by Josh harper's 24 catches for 280 yards and a score - while Waller leads the ground attack with 294 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Burrell was one of the lone bright spots for the team over its first three games and has five touchdowns against just two interceptions so far in 2014.
ABOUT NEW MEXICO (1-2 SU, 2-1 O/U): The biggest problem for opposing teams is not knowing which Lobos rushing threat to contain. Quarterback Cole Gautsche (20 carries, 237 yards, two touchdowns) and running back Teriyon Gipson (35 carries, 194 yards, one TD) may miss the game with leg injuries, but Jhurrell Pressley (215 yards, two TDs) and Crusoe Gongbay (173 yards, two TDs) should be available to pick up the slack. New Mexico has attempted just 34 passes on the year, completing 20 of them for 264 yards and three scores.
TRENDS:
* Fresno State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.
* New Mexico is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 September games.
* Over is 9-1 in the Lobos' last 10 games on grass.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
COVERS CONSENSUS: 62.4% of Covers voters are betting on visiting Fresno State.
NCAAF Week 5
Middle Tennessee has a lousy defense; they're 1-2 vs I-A teams-- they allowed 718 yards in 50-47 OT win over Western Kentucky, 260+ yards on ground in each of two losses, 35-24 at Minnesota, 36-17 at Memphis. Old Dominion passed for 430 yards in 45-42 win at Rice last week, their first I-A road win; Monarchs lost 46-34 at NC State, have senior QB with 25 starts. MTSU has three new starters on OL and soph QB, so they're rebuilding some; they're 1-5 in last six games as a road dog.
Fresno State lost first three I-A games this year, allowing 55.3 ppg; they beat a I-AA team last week. Bulldogs (-33) gained 822 yards in a 69-28 drubbing of New Mexico LY, year after they beat Lobos 49-32 (-15) here. Bulldogs threw ball for 954 yards in the two games; they're 10-4-1 in last 15 games as a favorite on road, 5-2-1 under DeRuyter. Lobos are 1-2, allowing 753 rushing yards in two losses, before 38-35 rivalry win last week over New Mexico State- they're giving up 41.3 ppg.
Armadillosports.com
Fresno State vs. New Mexico Betting Preview and Pick
By: Ryan Mercier
Sportingnews.com
LAS VEGAS – If Fresno State and New Mexico are referred to as 'cover machines' then they are in serious need of repair. The Bulldogs are 1-3 ATS and the Lobos 0-3 ATS ahead of each school's first Mountain West Conference game of the year (Friday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN 2).
The Line: Fresno State -5.5, Total: 73
Line movement: The Wynn opened with Fresno State as a 4.5-point favorite and Treasure Island even outdid that, opening the Bulldogs at -3.5. Midweek consensus has Fresno State at -5.5, with the spread being dealt as low as -5 and as high as -6. For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds board.
Trends that matter: Fresno State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games versus a team with a losing record, but 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. New Mexico is 7-3 in its last 10 following a SU win but 1-5 ATS in its last six overall. Both teams are trending OVER, as Fresno State is 4-0 to the OVER this season, and New Mexico is 6-1 to the OVER in its last seven home games. Most importantly, Fresno State is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four meetings against New Mexico.
Stiff competition: Fresno State is only 1-3 SU this season and every game it's played has been a blowout. The largest dog the Bulldogs have been was +18.5 in the opener against USC, and yet every game they've lost has been by 32 or more. All of their first three opponents, though, are in the top 40 of the Don Best/Linemakers poll.
Then, last week, the whipping boys from Southern Utah came to town and the Bulldogs crushed them, winning 56-16 as 17.5-point favorites.
Fresno State has already played its toughest games of the year four games into the season. Sure, upcoming road games in conference play will not be easy, but none of them will match the level of USC, Nebraska and Utah. A win streak appears likely in the near future.
The quarterback job appears to be junior Brian Burrell's to lose, though nothing is set in stone. Burrell has thrown for five touchdowns and has run for 116 yards on the season. In last year's matchup, Fresno killed UNM 69-28 as a 34.5-point favorite but that was with quarterback Derek Carr and receiver Davante Adams.
None shall pass: Out of 128 teams that apply for rankings, New Mexico is 126th in passing yards, averaging 88 per game. Luckily, they are effective running the ball, which is obviously the identity of this football team.
Quarterback Cole Gautsche leads the team in rushing with 237 yards, while running backs Jhurell Pressley, Teriyon Gipson and Crusoe Gongbay all have about 200 yards apiece.
So, who's the starting quarterback for the Lobos? Who cares? In their 38-35 rivalry win over New Mexico State a week ago, four different players attempted and completed passes for a grand total of 67 yards.
UNM had a bye a couple weeks back, which is why they're only 1-2 SU (0-3 ATS) so far. They were upset in their opener as a 10-point favorite hosting UTEP, and their last two games have gone OVER the total.
Injuries that matter: Fresno State defensive back Shannon Edwards (shoulder) is questionable for Friday night.
UNM offensive lineman Johnny Vizcaino (concussion) is also questionable.
Weather: The forecast calls for warm temperatures, around 76 degrees, and there a 40 percent chance for a thunderstorm. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
The Linemakers' lean: New Mexico has made major strides under Bob Davie. The Lobos have lost by an average of just 7.1 points per game in Davies’ three seasons; they lost by 26 points per game in the three seasons before he arrived. We see New Mexico keeping this game close and possibly even winning outright as the home dog.
We also have a lean to the OVER. Sure, it’s a high number, but both teams can move the ball down the field and neither puts up much resistance defensively.