College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, September 29th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MIAMI (2 - 0) at DUKE (4 - 0) - 9/29/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEBRASKA (2 - 2) at ILLINOIS (2 - 1) - 9/29/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 123-161 ATS (-54.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 123-161 ATS (-54.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 81-123 ATS (-54.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ILLINOIS is 2-0 against the spread versus NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
ILLINOIS is 1-1 straight up against NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BYU (1 - 3) at UTAH ST (2 - 2) - 9/29/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 2-0 straight up against UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
USC (4 - 0) at WASHINGTON ST (4 - 0) - 9/29/2017, 10:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MIAMI-FL @ DUKE
Miami-FL is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Miami-FL is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Duke
Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Duke's last 6 games when playing Miami-FL
NEBRASKA @ ILLINOIS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nebraska's last 5 games on the road
Nebraska is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Illinois's last 19 games at home
Illinois is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home
BRIGHAM YOUNG @ UTAH STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brigham Young's last 5 games on the road
Brigham Young is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing Utah State
Utah State is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Utah State's last 10 games when playing Brigham Young
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA @ WASHINGTON STATE
Southern California is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington State
Southern California is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington State's last 9 games when playing at home against Southern California
Washington State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
College Football Week 5
Duke is 4-0 with wins over Northwestern/UNC; Blue Devils are allowing 65.7 rushing yards/game; last 4+ years, they’re 5-1 as a home underdog. First road game for Miami team that had two weeks off (hurricane) before whacking Toledo 52-30 LW; Rockets threw for 344 yards against the ‘canes, Miami is 10-3 in last 13 games as a road favorite, 4-1 under coach Richt. Duke is 1-11 in its last 12 games with Miami, losing last three by 12-3-19 points. Underdogs are 6-5 vs spread in last 11 series games, 3-3 in games played here.
Natives are restless in Lincoln after Nebraska’s 2-2 start, which includes home loss to Northern Illinois. Cornhuskers lost only road game 42-35 at Oregon (trailed 42-14 at half); they’re 5-7 in last 12 games as a road favorite, 2-3 under Riley. Nebraska is 3-1 vs Illinois in Big 14 play; home side won all four games, covered three of them. Illini are 2-6 in last eight games as a home underdog, 1-4 under Smith; they’re 2-1 this season, winning couple of home games before getting drilled 47-23 at USF last week. Illinois is 3-8 in last 11 games as single digit dog.
BYU lost its last three games by combined score of 86-19; now they step down in class to take on Utah State club they’ve beaten 13 of last 15 meetings, covering three of last four- they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four series games as a single digit favorite. Cougars won 51-28/31-14 in last two visits to Logan. Utah State split its first four games, three of which were on road; they allowed 234-291 rushing yards in its losses, at Wisconsin/Wake Forest. Aggies are 1-4 as a home underdog under Wells. Mountain West non-conference underdogs are 13-10 vs spread, 2-2 at home.
Washington State doesn’t get on national TV a lot; this is a big deal for them, just another day on the beach for USC, which scored 37 pts/game in its 4-0 start, winning first road game 30-20 at Cal LW. Teams didn’t play last two years; Trojans won last five visits to Pullman (4-1 vs spread) but did lost at home to Wazzu in 2013. Coogs are 4-0 this year but have’t been on road yet; they were down 31-10 with 9:00 to play vs Boise State, somehow won that game. Wazzu is 5-7 as a home underdog under Leach. USC is 4-2 in last six games as a road favorite.
Armadillosports.com
Washington State hosts USC
By: StatFox.com
USC will be on upset alert when the team takes on Washington State in Pullman.
Since the Trojans entered the season among the favorites to make the College Football Playoff this season, a downside of the hype is that they have not played as well as their 4-0 record suggests they have. Their 1-3 ATS record, on the other hand, accurately represents what has been something of a slow start to the season. A 49-31 season-opening win over Western Michigan (WMU +28) was closer than its final score for much of the afternoon, a 27-24 win over Texas (UT +16.5) came over a team that gave up 51 points to Maryland at home, and, most recently, a 30-20 win at Cal (CAL +17) was just generally uninspiring. In Week 2, though, USC did have a 42-24 win over Stanford (USC -3.5) in which we got a glimpse of their full potential. This week, the Trojans travel to play undefeated Washington State (2-2 ATS) on Friday night. The Cougars have three blowout wins this year, and in Week 2 kept East Coast college football fans up until the early hours of the morning with a crazy 47-44 win over Boise State in triple overtime (BSU +7). Over the last 10 seasons, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging at least 16.0 PPG in first halves (WSU) are 49-17 ATS after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. On the other hand, in the same timeframe, road teams coming off of two consecutive ATS losses (USC) are 38-12 ATS in games involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or higher. Star USC RB Ronald Jones III missed the game against Cal and is questionable for Friday night. WR Steven Mitchell Jr. and DE Porter Gustin also missed the game last weekend and are questionable.
Just as his team began the year burdened with championship aspirations, USC QB Sam Darnold (67.1 CMP%, 1,225 yards, 9 TDs, 7 INTs) came into 2017 as a Heisman favorite and as the prohibitive favorite to be selected first overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. While he certainly hasn't played himself out of candidacy for either distinction, he has plenty of room to improve. Specifically, he needs to cut down on the turnovers. He was merely decent against Cal, completing 26 of 38 passes for 223 yards and two touchdowns, but also throwing an interception. He certainly wasn't helped much by his offensive line, which left him scrambling from Bears defenders for much of the game. Jones (59 carries, 322 yards, 5 TDs; 3 catches, 85 yards, TD) is one of the best backs in the nation, and the Trojans are obviously worse off without him on the field. Of course, USC always has plenty of talent, and RB Stephen Carr (47 carries, 298 yards, 3 TDs; 13 catches, 130 yards) emerged as the offensive MVP in the Cal game. He carried the ball 20 times for 82 yards and a critical fourth-quarter touchdown, while also catching six balls for 47 yards. Darnold has an elite target in WR Deontay Burnett (33 catches, 462 yards, 5 TDs), who is fifth in the nation in receptions and seventh in receiving yards. Mitchell (14 catches, 223 yards, 2 TDs) is the No. 2, and his presence will be imperative going forward as Darnold looks to get into a week-to-week rhythm. The Trojan defense forced six turnovers against Cal. While it's certainly a top-notch unit, that's not a sustainable output for the offense to rely on.
It should tell you everything you need to know about Mike Leach's offense that, despite the fact that WSU backup QB Tyler Hilinski has already attempted 54 passes this season, starting QB Luke Falk (76.9 CMP%, 1,378 yards, 14 TDs, INT) is still fifth in the nation in passing yards. Leach, of course, has a history of coaching statistical marvels at the position, but Falk might be the best talent of all of them. The time he yielded to Hilinski was largely in the tight win over Boise State, though, showing that the offense can get along without him. He was as explosive as always in a 45-7 win over Nevada last week (WSU -28.5), completing 36 of 47 passes for 478 yards and five touchdowns. If he were to engineer an upset win over USC this week, he would likely find his name somewhere atop the Heisman conversation as the signal-caller of a 5-0 team. As is characteristic of a Leach quarterback, Falk spreads the ball around—five receivers have over 150 yards. Junior WR Tavares Martin Jr. (26 catches, 390 yards, 6 TDs) is the clear No. 1, though, and he displayed dominance downfield against the Wolfpack with 114 yards and two touchdowns on only four catches. Freshman WR Renard Bell (14 catches, 228 yards) put up a similar stat line, catching four balls for 113 yards. Bell also was excellent in the Boise State win, catching seven balls for 107 yards in that one. RB James Williams (37 carries, 148 yards, TD; 37 catches, 266 yards, 3 TDs) is frequently targeted in the short field, and WR Isaiah Johnson-Mack (24 catches, 236 yards, 2 TDs) has seen his role increase after he put up 246 receiving yards as a freshman last year. When the Cougars choose to run, they're quite solid. Williams has gotten the most carries on the year, but senior RB Jamal Morrow (28 carries, 193 yards, TD; 13 catches, 86 yards, 3 TDs) has more yards on the ground. Morrow had 11 carries against Nevada, while Williams had nine. Both will continue to see steady handoffs as well as targets in the passing game.
Undefeated Duke takes on Miami
By: StatFox.com
Duke will be hoping to stay perfect with a monumental upset over Miami on Friday.
The Hurricanes have only played two games this season because of the storms that swept through Florida earlier in the season. They have, however, won both of those games, with last week’s 52-30 win as 13.5-point favorites over Toledo being the more impressive of the two. Miami rushed for 254 yards in that game and the team also held Toledo to just 85 rushing yards on 35 attempts. If the Hurricanes can run the ball and defend the run as well then the team should be in for some great things this season. Duke, meanwhile, is a ridiculous 4-0 both SU and ATS this season, and the Blue Devils most recently went into Chapel Hill and defeated the Tar Heels 27-17 as 2.5-point road underdogs. This program has notched some big victories already in 2017, but none would be bigger than a win here. Miami has won-and-covered in three straight games against Duke, but the Blue Devils will just need to point to 2013’s 48-30 home victory over the Hurricanes as inspiration for this one. One trend that favors Miami in this game is the fact that the team is 7-0 ATS after outgaining an opponent by 125 or more total yards in its previous game over the past two seasons. The Hurricanes are, however, a lousy 4-14 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards in two straight games since 1992.
Miami is coming off of an impressive victory over Toledo last week, but the team will need its defense to be a lot better on Friday. The Hurricanes allowed the Rockets to throw for 344 yards in that victory, and they must be better against the pass here. The Blue Devils like to air it out and will not be able to win if Miami’s passing defense shows up here. On offense, the Hurricanes will be relying on RB Mark Walton (352 yards, 3 TD) to win this game for them. Walton was excellent against Toledo last week, rushing for 204 yards and a touchdown on only 11 carries. He dealt with an injury during the game, but he was able to come back in. The expectation is that he should be ready to go on Friday and he will likely have a huge game if he is out there. Walton is one of the best running backs in college football and is in a system that suits him well. In the passing game, QB Malik Rosier (550 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT) is not asked to do much. He did, however, explode against Toledo, throwing for 333 yards with three touchdowns and only one pick. He also added a rushing touchdown. Perhaps that game will give him some confidence moving forward.
Duke has looked good to start the year, but this Miami team is a whole other animal. The Blue Devils will need to really play a perfect game in order to beat them on Friday, which means that QB Daniel Jones (904 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT) will need to show up in a big way here. Jones hasn’t necessarily been horrible in his past two games, but he is definitely expected to be a lot better. He was just 38-for-69 for 386 yards, one touchdown, and one pick in those two contests. The Blue Devils will need Jones to throw for around 250 with at least two touchdowns on Friday. Another guy that will need to play a good game for Duke is RB Shaun Wilson (349 yards, 5 TD). Wilson has rushed for a least one touchdown in each of the first four games this season. Against Baylor two weeks ago, Wilson rushed for 176 yards with two scores. If he can go for at least 100 yards on Friday then the team will be in good shape against Miami. Defensively, Duke must be ready to defend the run. If the team lets Mark Walton go crazy then it won’t enter Week 6 with a perfect record.
Washington State hosts USC
By: StatFox.com
USC will be on upset alert when the team takes on Washington State in Pullman.
Since the Trojans entered the season among the favorites to make the College Football Playoff this season, a downside of the hype is that they have not played as well as their 4-0 record suggests they have. Their 1-3 ATS record, on the other hand, accurately represents what has been something of a slow start to the season. A 49-31 season-opening win over Western Michigan (WMU +28) was closer than its final score for much of the afternoon, a 27-24 win over Texas (UT +16.5) came over a team that gave up 51 points to Maryland at home, and, most recently, a 30-20 win at Cal (CAL +17) was just generally uninspiring. In Week 2, though, USC did have a 42-24 win over Stanford (USC -3.5) in which we got a glimpse of their full potential. This week, the Trojans travel to play undefeated Washington State (2-2 ATS) on Friday night. The Cougars have three blowout wins this year, and in Week 2 kept East Coast college football fans up until the early hours of the morning with a crazy 47-44 win over Boise State in triple overtime (BSU +7). Over the last 10 seasons, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging at least 16.0 PPG in first halves (WSU) are 49-17 ATS after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. On the other hand, in the same timeframe, road teams coming off of two consecutive ATS losses (USC) are 38-12 ATS in games involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or higher. Star USC RB Ronald Jones III missed the game against Cal and is questionable for Friday night. WR Steven Mitchell Jr. and DE Porter Gustin also missed the game last weekend and are questionable.
Just as his team began the year burdened with championship aspirations, USC QB Sam Darnold (67.1 CMP%, 1,225 yards, 9 TDs, 7 INTs) came into 2017 as a Heisman favorite and as the prohibitive favorite to be selected first overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. While he certainly hasn't played himself out of candidacy for either distinction, he has plenty of room to improve. Specifically, he needs to cut down on the turnovers. He was merely decent against Cal, completing 26 of 38 passes for 223 yards and two touchdowns, but also throwing an interception. He certainly wasn't helped much by his offensive line, which left him scrambling from Bears defenders for much of the game. Jones (59 carries, 322 yards, 5 TDs; 3 catches, 85 yards, TD) is one of the best backs in the nation, and the Trojans are obviously worse off without him on the field. Of course, USC always has plenty of talent, and RB Stephen Carr (47 carries, 298 yards, 3 TDs; 13 catches, 130 yards) emerged as the offensive MVP in the Cal game. He carried the ball 20 times for 82 yards and a critical fourth-quarter touchdown, while also catching six balls for 47 yards. Darnold has an elite target in WR Deontay Burnett (33 catches, 462 yards, 5 TDs), who is fifth in the nation in receptions and seventh in receiving yards. Mitchell (14 catches, 223 yards, 2 TDs) is the No. 2, and his presence will be imperative going forward as Darnold looks to get into a week-to-week rhythm. The Trojan defense forced six turnovers against Cal. While it's certainly a top-notch unit, that's not a sustainable output for the offense to rely on.
It should tell you everything you need to know about Mike Leach's offense that, despite the fact that WSU backup QB Tyler Hilinski has already attempted 54 passes this season, starting QB Luke Falk (76.9 CMP%, 1,378 yards, 14 TDs, INT) is still fifth in the nation in passing yards. Leach, of course, has a history of coaching statistical marvels at the position, but Falk might be the best talent of all of them. The time he yielded to Hilinski was largely in the tight win over Boise State, though, showing that the offense can get along without him. He was as explosive as always in a 45-7 win over Nevada last week (WSU -28.5), completing 36 of 47 passes for 478 yards and five touchdowns. If he were to engineer an upset win over USC this week, he would likely find his name somewhere atop the Heisman conversation as the signal-caller of a 5-0 team. As is characteristic of a Leach quarterback, Falk spreads the ball around—five receivers have over 150 yards. Junior WR Tavares Martin Jr. (26 catches, 390 yards, 6 TDs) is the clear No. 1, though, and he displayed dominance downfield against the Wolfpack with 114 yards and two touchdowns on only four catches. Freshman WR Renard Bell (14 catches, 228 yards) put up a similar stat line, catching four balls for 113 yards. Bell also was excellent in the Boise State win, catching seven balls for 107 yards in that one. RB James Williams (37 carries, 148 yards, TD; 37 catches, 266 yards, 3 TDs) is frequently targeted in the short field, and WR Isaiah Johnson-Mack (24 catches, 236 yards, 2 TDs) has seen his role increase after he put up 246 receiving yards as a freshman last year. When the Cougars choose to run, they're quite solid. Williams has gotten the most carries on the year, but senior RB Jamal Morrow (28 carries, 193 yards, TD; 13 catches, 86 yards, 3 TDs) has more yards on the ground. Morrow had 11 carries against Nevada, while Williams had nine. Both will continue to see steady handoffs as well as targets in the passing game.
ACC Report - Week 5
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Miami-Florida at Duke
The Hurricanes finally got back onto the field last week against Toledo after a two-week hiatus due, ironically, to a hurricane. They'll travel to meet a red-hot Duke side that has not only opened 4-0 SU, but they're also 4-0 ATS. Miami has covered four in a row inside the conference, and they're an impressive 6-1 ATS over their past seven overall. Duke hasn't been too shabby, either, going 6-0 ATS over the past six at Wallace Wade Stadium in Duke, while posting a 6-2 ATS mark over their past eight against teams with a winning record and 5-2 ATS in their past seven inside the ACC. The Hurricanes have covered five of their past six in this series, including a controversial 30-27 win at Duke in 2015 when Miami pulled off a kickoff return for touchdown featuring several laterals and missed calls by the officiating unit. Duke hasn't started 5-0 since the 1994 season when they won seven in a row to start.
Big Ten Report - Week 5
By ASAWins
Nebraska (-6.5) at Illinois
The Huskers have had a tumultuous season thus far to say the least. On the field they struggled to get by Arkansas State at home in their opener, lost a close game at Oregon despite getting outgained by 200 yards, lost at home to Northern Illinois with help from two Tanner Lee pick 6’s, and then weren’t overly impressive in a 27-17 win over a Rutgers team that has won a grand total of one game in the last 370 days! Their AD was surprisingly fired early last week which puts current head coach Mike Riley on the hottest seat in the country. After their first loss EVER to a MAC team two weeks ago and a non-descript performance last week, this is pretty much a must win for the Huskers. A loss here could send their season on a downward spiral if it isn’t already. QB Tanner Lee continues to be a turnover machine throwing 2 more interceptions vs Rutgers including ANOTHER pick 6. He now has 9 interceptions which is the most in the nation. After allowing Rutgers to go 75 yards for a TD on their opening drive, the Husker defense buckled down holding the Scarlet Knights to just 119 total yards the rest of the way. After their first drive, Nebraska’s defense allowed Rutgers to cross mid-field just twice and both of those drives started in Husker territory. NU’s top RB Tre Bryant remains questionable for this one after missing the last two games.
Illinois has the luxury of a week off to get ready for this game. The Illini are a surprise 2-1 on the season but they have been outgained by a combined total of 429 yards in those games. They are currently dead last in the Big Ten in total offense (290 YPG) and dead last in total defense (433 YPG). Illinois may have a bit of a QB controversy as starter Chayce Crouch was replaced in the second half of their most recent game by Jeff George Jr. Despite the 47-23 loss at USF, George seemed to give the offense a boost throwing for 211 yards and 1 TD pass. Let’s face it though, neither have been great as the two Illinois QB’s have combined for a grand total of 2 TD passes this year to go along with 5 interceptions. That’s a problem when your rushing attack puts up only 110 YPG. On top of all that, this team is last in the Big Ten as well in penalty yardage at almost 90 per game. Not much positive to say about the Illini right now. Hard to believe they are 2-1.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Huskers are 15-6 ATS their last 21 road games. Since joining the Big Ten, Nebraska is 3-1 in this series with wins by margins of 15, 20, and 31 points. Their lone loss was at Illinois in 2015 by a final score of 14-13. These two met last year in Lincoln with the Huskers winning 31-16 with a yardage edge of 420 to 273. Since 1994, the Illini are just 27-39 ATS as a home underdog.
Pac-12 Report - Week 5
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Southern California at Washington State
USC survived against Texas a couple of weeks ago, and then the Trojans were successful in their first true road game at California, a place they have had trouble in the past. While USC failed to cover for the second straight week, and third time in the past four outings, they're perfect on the season. Washington State is also unbeaten so far, and they have been tested to a point. They had a dramatic 47-44 triple-overtime comeback win against Boise State back on Sept. 9, and they also posted a 52-23 win against Oregon State in their conference opener. And last week they covered a 28 1/2-point number, stomping a poor Nevada team by a 45-7 count. They haven't seen a test like USC's offense or defense, however. The last time they faced the Trojans it didn't end well, as they fell 44-17 on Nov. 1, 2014 in Pullman. That was a little revenge after the Cougs topped the Trojans in the Coliseum on Sept. 7, 2013. USC is 3-8 ATS over their past 11 road games, but 6-1 ATS in their past seven league games. Washington State is 13-6 ATS across their past 19 conference tilts.
Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Miami at Duke
As of Thursday, most betting shops had Miami (2-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) listed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 56. The Blue Devils were +210 on the money line (risk $100 to win $210).
Mark Richt’s team had 21 days off between its season-opening 41-3 win over Bethune-Cookman and last week’s date with Toledo in South Florida. UM’s rust was clearly evident when it was trailing 16-10 more than midway through the third quarter. At that time, bettors on the Rockets +13.5 and ‘under’ 60 combined points were loving life. That changed, however, when Miami RB Travis Homer dashed into the end zone on a 12-yard scamper to give the Hurricanes the lead for keeps with 5:36 left in the third quarter. Then with 20 ticks remaining in the third, quarterback Malik Rosier found Dayall Harris for a 10-yard scoring strike and a 24-16 advantage. After forcing a turnover, Braxton Berrios scored on a 19-yard TD run on the first play of the fourth quarter. Then when Rosier hit Christopher Herndon for a two-yard TD pass with 11:23 left, the ‘Canes took a 38-16 lead. Toledo answered with a six-yard TD pass from Logan Woodside to Diontae Johnson, but the two-point conversion failed. Next, the Rockets surged back ahead of the number when Wooside hit Johnson again for an eight-yard scoring strike. Woodside found Johnson yet again on a pass for the two-point conversion to trim the deficit to 38-30 with 7:37 remaining. But UM would get a Rosier 23-yard TD run and a 15-yard TD dash from Homer to pull away and win by a 52-30 count.
Mark Walton stole the show for UM against Toledo, rushing for 204 yards and one TD on merely 11 carries. Rosier completed 27-of-36 passes for 333 yards and three TDs compared to just one interception. Berrios had five receptions for 105 yards and one TD, while Herndon finished with eight catches for 65 yards and one TD.
Duke (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) has been a serious money maker in wins vs. NC Central (60-7), vs. Northwestern (41-17), vs. Baylor (34-20) and at North Carolina (27-17). The Blue Devils rallied from a 17-13 fourth-quarter deficit at UNC last week to win as 1.5-point road underdogs. Shaun Wilson’s one-yard TD run with 6:09 left put Duke ahead 20-17, and Byron Fields scored on a 61-yard pick-six with 4:01 remaining to put the game on ice. Sophomore QB Daniel Jones threw for 202 yards and one TD without being picked off. Brittain Brown, a redshirt freshman RB, rushed 10 times for 90 yards. T.J. Rahming had six receptions for 73 yards.
For the season, Jones has completed 61.9 percent of his passes for 904 yards with a 5/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also rushed for 141 yards and three TDs. Wilson has run for a team-high 349 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Brown has produced 325 rushing yards and two TDs with a 6.3 YPC average. Rahming is Jones’s favorite target, bringing down 24 receptions for 248 yards.
Duke owns a 15-11 spread record in 26 games as a home underdog during David Cutcliffe’s 10-year tenure.
Miami has won 12 of 14 head-to-head meetings in this rivalry and is 5-1 ATS in the last six encounters. The ‘Canes won a 40-21 decision as 16-point home favorites last year. Walton ran for a team-best 60 yards on 13 attempts, in addition to making four catches for 46 yards and one TD. Jones threw for 316 yards and three TDs without an interception. The last time these schools met at Wallace Wade Stadium two years ago, Miami won 30-27 in controversial fashion. Duke took a 27-24 lead with six seconds left but on the ensuing kickoff, UM scored after making eight laterals in one of the wildest finishes in college football history. However, replays showed that before one of UM’s players got rid of the ball on a lateral, his knee was clearly down. Nevertheless, the replay booth didn’t act and Miami left town in victorious fashion.
Who was equally as pissed off as Cutcliffe and Duke fans about that controversial result in 2015? Gamblers who were on ‘under’ 51.5 points! With the score at 27-24, which should’ve been the final, bets on the ‘under’ could’ve/should’ve/would’ve been a winner.
The ‘over’ is 2-1 in Duke’s home games this year, 2-2 overall. Totals have been a wash for the ‘Canes (1-1), who are hitting the road for the first time in 2017.
Southern California at Washington State
Most books had Southern Cal (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) installed as a 10-point favorite for this matchup in the Games of the Year during the summer. As of Thursday afternoon, however, most spots had USC listed as a 3.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 65. The Cougars were available on the money line for a +155 return.
When looking at this game from a situational standpoint, there are a lot of factors favoring Mike Leach’s club. First of all, Washington State (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) hasn’t had to travel yet this year, playing its fifth consecutive home game here. Secondly, it’s at home on a short week of preparation. This is always advantageous to the home team in that at least it doesn’t have to travel. Finally, Southern Cal is playing a second straight contest on the road.
Washington State has collected wins over Montana State (31-0), Boise State (47-44 in triple overtime), Oregon State (52-23) and Nevada (45-7). Leach’s squad scored the first 45 points against the Wolf Pack last week, blanking the team from Reno until it scored a garbage touchdown with only 1:56 remaining. Luke Falk was nothing short of sensational, completing 36-of-47 passes for 478 yards and five TDs without an interception. Jamal Morrow rushed for a team-best 73 yards on 11 carries, in addition to catching four balls for 40 receiving yards and one TD. Junior WR Taveres Martin had four receptions for 114 yards and two TDs, while Renard Bell hauled in four catches for 113 yards. The Cougars’ defense limited Nevada to merely 151 yards of total offense and a 1.9 yards-per-carry average on 24 rushing attempts. Sophomore safety Jalen Thompson snagged a pair of interceptions.
Falk has completed 76.9 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards with a 14/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. For his career, Falk has an amazing 103/27 TD-INT ratio. Martin has 26 receptions for a team-high 390 receiving yards and six TDs, while James Williams has 37 catches for 266 yards and three TDs. Seven Wazzu players have 12 catches or more through four games.
Morrow has rushed for a team-best 193 yards and one TD, averaging 6.9 YPC. He also has 13 receptions for 86 yards and three TDs. Williams has run for 148 yards and one TD, averaging 4.0 YPC.
Washington State lost last year’s leading tackler and defensive leader Peyton Pelluer to a season-ending foot injury two weeks ago. The senior LB recorded 93 tackles, one sack, 6.5 tackles for loss, two passes broken up and one QB hurry in 2016. Before going down in Week 3, Pelluer had produced 21 tackles, 0.5 TFL’s, one PBU, one QB hurry and an interception he returned 36 yards for a TD. The only other player listed as injured for WSU is OG Robert Valencia, who is ‘questionable’ with an undisclosed injury.
Washington State has gone 5-7 ATS in 12 games as a home underdog since Leach took over in 2012.
USC has posted wins vs. Western Michigan (49-31), vs. Stanford (42-24), vs. Texas (27-24 in double OT) and at California (30-20). The Trojans’ only spread cover came against the Cardinal as 4.5-point home favorites. The win over Western Michigan was an extremely misleading score, as the game was knotted at 31-31 midway through the fourth quarter.
Clay Helton’s team failed to cover the number in Berkeley last week as a 16.5-point road ‘chalk.’ The game was tied going into the fourth quarter before USC ripped off 17 consecutive points in a stretch of three minutes and nine seconds. With the Trojans slightly ahead of the number (if you took them at 16.5; the line was 17 most of the week), Cal’s Jordan Veasy caught an eight-yard TD pass from QB Ross Bowers with 1:53 remaining to give the Golden Bears the spread cover. QB Sam Darnold connected on 26-of-38 throws for 223 yards and two TDs compared to one interception. With star RB Ronald Jones sidelined with a thigh injury, true freshman and five-star recruit Stephen Carr rushed for 82 yards and one TD on 20 carries. Deontay Burnett had seven receptions for 76 yards and one TD. Sophomore CB Jack Jones had two of four interceptions for the Trojans on Bowers.
The final score is all that matters as it pertains to last week’s trip to Berkeley, but we’d be remiss to not mention Cal’s 416-356 advantage in total offense. The Golden Bears committed six turnovers compared to two for USC to give the Trojans a +4 advantage in the turnover department.
After sitting out last week at Cal, junior RB Ronald Jones has been upgraded to ‘probable’ this week. Jones, who rushed for 1,082 yards and 12 TDs with a 6.1 YPC average last year, rushed for 322 yards and five TDs in USC’s first three games. He had a 159-yard rushing effort in the opener vs. Western Michigan, including a 37-yard TD scamper with 6:57 remaining to put his team in front for good. Carr has run for 298 yards and three TDs with a 6.3 YPC average. Jones is averaging 5.5 YPC.
Darnold has completed 67.1 percent of his throws for 1,225 yards, but he’s been intercepted seven times compared to nine TD passes. Burnett has a team-high 33 receptions for 462 yards and five TDs. Burnett is dealing with a shoulder injury, but he’s listed as ‘probable.’ Senior WR Steven Mitchell missed the win at Cal due to a groin injury and is ‘out’ again at WSU. Mitchell had 14 catches for 223 yards and two TDs in the first two games. Carr has 13 catches for 130 yards, while Jones has three receptions for 85 yards and one TD.
In addition to Mitchell, five other USC players are out with injuries. The most important absence is that of junior DE Porter Gustin, who will miss an indefinite period of time due to a biceps injury. Gustin had 68 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 7.5 TFL’s, four PBU and one QB hurry last year. Six other USC players are listed as ‘questionable,’ but all of them are reserves.
Both teams have seen its totals go 2-2 overall for a wash. The ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back outings for the Trojans, including their only prior road assignment at Cal.
These schools haven’t met since 2014 when USC captured a 44-17 victory as a 7.5-point road favorite. Falk, a true freshman at the time, completed 38-of-57 passes for 346 yards and two TDs with one interception. Morrow had six catches for 26 yards in the losing effort. The Trojans have won nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings dating back to 2003.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Friday’s slate includes four total games. One of the others is Nebraska at Illinois on Fox Sports 1 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. As of late Thursday afternoon, most spots had the Cornhuskers favored by six points with a total of 46.5. The Illini were +195 to win outright (risk $100 to win $195).
Nebraska sophomore RB Tre Bryant will miss his second straight game with a knee injury. Brown rushed for 299 yards and two TDs on 51 carries in the team’s first three outings. Starting senior LB Marcus Newby is also out with a hamstring issue, as is starting senior safety Joshua Kalu.
Illinois is 2-4 ATS in six games as a home underdog during Lovie Smith’s two-year tenure. One of those covers came in a Week 2 win over Western Ky. by a 20-7 score as a 6.5-point home ‘dog. Meanwhile, Nebraska is 3-2 ATS in five games as a road favorite under Mike Riley.
Illinois has had two weeks to prepare for Nebraska after losing 47-23 at USF two Fridays ago. On the flip side, the Cornhuskers are playing their fifth game in five weeks and are on the road on a short week.
BYU and Utah State will collide Friday in Logan at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports Network. As of Thursday, most books had the Cougars favored by 1.5 with a total of 48.5 points. BYU is probably the nation’s biggest disappointment to date, going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Kalani Sitake’s team picked up its lone win at home vs. Portland State, 20-6. The Cougars were routed at home by Wisconsin and against LSU in New Orleans. They have had two weeks to prepare for the Aggies, who won 61-10 at San Jose State last week. BYU starting QB Tanner Mangum remains out indefinitely with an ankle injury.
Stanford QB Keller Chryst was ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s home game vs. Arizona State as of Thursday. Chryst, who has four TD passes without an interception this year, was in concussion protocol.
As of Thursday, there was a growing sentiment in Athens that QB Jacob Eason could be ready to play Saturday at Tennessee. Eason sprained his knee in the first quarter of the season-opening 31-10 win over Appalachian State To be clear, Jake Fromm will start and will almost certainly remain the starter until he falters. But there seems to be a good chance that Eason will be available for back-up duty in Knoxville.
Miami (OH) junior LB Junior McMullen is ‘questionable’ at Notre Dame after missing last week’s 31-14 win at Central Michigan with an undisclosed injury. He was the RedHawks’ second-leading tackler last season behind only senior safety Tony Reid, who is suspended for the first half in South Bend for a targeting penalty at CMU. A third Miami (OH) defensive starter is listed as ‘questionable’ in junior DE Dean Lemon. The RedHawks are 13-5 ATS in 18 games as road underdogs during Chuck Martin’s four-year tenure. They are 21-point road underdogs against the Fighting Irish.
Middle Tennessee star QB Brent Stockstill has been ruled out at FAU and will miss a third straight game due to a shoulder injury. WR Richie James remains ‘questionable’ with an ankle injury. Stockstill had a 31/7 TD-INT ratio in 10 games last season, while James had 105 receptions for 1,625 yards and 12 TDs. In the Blue Raiders’ first three games, James had 18 catches for 208 yards and two TDs. FAU is a three-point home favorite.
Ball State owns a 7-0 spread record as a road underdog on Mike Neu’s watch, but starting QB Riley Neal has been ruled ‘out’ at Western Michigan with a leg injury. Junior RB James Gilbert, a first-team All-MAC selection last year when he rushed for 1,332 yards and 12 TDs, is ‘doubtful’ with a hand injury. Neal has completed 44-of-68 passes for 421 yards and three TDs compared to one interception. The Cardinals are 14.5-point ‘dogs against the Broncos.