College Football Betting News and Notes Friday, September 2nd, 2016

Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Colorado State vs. Colorado

This in-state rivalry will be renewed at Sports Authority Field in Denver on Friday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of Tuesday, most books had Colorado listed as an eight-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 57 points. The Rams were +260 on the money line (risk $100 to win $260). For first-half wagers, CU was favored by 4.5 points with a total of 28.5.

Colorado finished the 2015 campaign with a 4-9 straight-up record and a 7-5-1 against-the-spread ledger. The Buffaloes return 18 total starters, nine on each side of the ball. They lost five one-possession games last year.

Mike MacIntyre’s owns a 10-27 record during his three-year tenure at CU. For our purposes, however, Colorado has posted a 20-16-1 spread record in those 37 contests.

When a team finishes five games below .500, you would think it would have a far uglier number than the -261 CU had for total yardage last year. In a 35-31 loss at UCLA that saw the Buffaloes easily take the cash as 23-point underdogs, they had a +154 advantage (554-400) in total offense. They were also +69 in yardage in a 28-20 loss at Hawaii. If MacIntyre is going to see a fourth season in Boulder, his squad has to do a better job of finding ways to win the close games.

Colorado senior QB Sefo Liufau is a four-year starter with 29 starts to his credit. He completed 62.0 percent of his passes last year for 2,418 yards with a 9/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Liufau also had five rushing scores in ’15. As a sophomore in ’14, Liufau connected on 65.3 percent of his throws for 3,200 yards with a 28/15 TD-INT ratio. He also had a pair of receptions for 24 yards and one TD. Liufau enters the year with 7,397 career passing yards, trailing the school’s all-time leader Cody Hawkins by only 334 yards. He has a 49/29 career TD-INT ratio.

Liufau won’t have his favorite target around anymore, however. Nelson Spruce, who is CU’s all-time leader with 3,347 career receiving yards, graduated and appears poised to make the Los Angeles Rams’ roster after inexplicably going undrafted. Nevertheless, the top seven pass catchers beyond Spruce from ’15 are back in the mix. This group includes junior Shay Fields, who has 1,084 receiving yards and 20 starts under his belt after a pair of seasons.

CU also brings back leading rusher Phillip Lindsay, who ran for 653 yards and six TDs while averaging 4.7 yards per carry as a sophomore last year.

CU had a respectable defense in ’15, giving up an average of 27.5 points per game. The Buffs return their top four tacklers and six of their top seven.

Since 2007 when these Rocky Mountain adversaries began meeting annually in Denver, Colorado has won six of eight games, including a 27-24 overtime triumph last season as a three-point favorite. The Buffaloes had to rally from a 14-0 first-half deficit. They blocked CSU’s 27-yard field goal to set up their game-winning FG in the extra session.

Jim McElwain led Colorado State to back-to-back bowl games and a 10-3 record in ’14. He parlayed that success into scoring an SEC gig at the University of Florida. CSU ventured to SEC country to find his replacement, plucking long-time Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo away from UGA. Bobo led his first team in Ft. Collins to a 7-6 SU record and a 6-6-1 ATS mark.

Colorado State limped to a 2-4 start last season, but it won four in a row to close the regular season and clinch a third consecutive postseason bid. The Rams lost three one-possession games, including a 23-20 loss at Minnesota in overtime. They dropped a 28-23 decision to Nevada at the Arizona Bowl.

CSU returns six starters on offense and four on defense. However, it will have to cope with the loss of the school’s all-time leader in receiving yards. Rashard Higgins had 75 receptions for 1,062 yards and eight TDs in Bobo’s offense. That allowed Higgins to finish with 3,649 career receiving yards.

Junior QB Nick Stevens thrived in Bobo’s attack. He started all 13 games as a sophomore, connecting on 60.8 percent of his passes for 2,679 yards with a 21/12 TD-INT ratio. Stevens also had three rushing scores. He would like to cut down on the picks, but those were solid numbers for a first-year starter in a new offense. Stevens not only lost the services of Higgins, but all four of his top pass catchers departed.

Junior RB Dalyn Dawkins, a transfer from Purdue, rushed for a team-high 867 yards and two TDs while averaging 5.1 YPC during his first year at CSU. Dawkins splits carries with Izzy Matthews, who rushed for 590 yards and five TDs while averaging 6.1 YPC as a true freshman in ’15.

Kansas State at Stanford

As of Tuesday, most betting shops had Stanford installed as a 15.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5 for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Wildcats were listed at +500 on the money line (risk $100 to win $500). For first-half bets, the Cardinal was favored by nine with a total of 24.5 points.

Stanford compiled a 12-2 SU record and a 10-4 against-the-spread mark last season. It marked the fourth time in David Shaw’s five seasons as head coach that the Cardinal produced 11 wins or more. Shaw’s sixth team brings back five starters on offense and six on defense.

Stanford star RB Christian McCaffrey is back for his junior campaign after setting an NCAA record with 3,864 all-purpose yards last season. He scored 15 TDs (eight rushing, five receiving and one apiece on kick and punt returns). McCaffrey garnered first-team All-American honors by rushing for 2,019 yards while averaging 6.0 YPC. He led the Cardinal in receptions (45) and receiving yards (645) as well.

Stanford junior Ryan Burns has been named the starting QB. He has appeared in six career games, throwing just one pass that he completed for 13 yards. Burns has rushed seven times for 21 yards. Shaw has indicated that sophomore signal caller Keller Chryst will also see playing time. As a freshman, Chryst completed 5-of-9 throws for 59 yards and one TD without an interception.

According to Monday’s edition of the San Jose Mercury News, McCaffrey’s back-up Bryce Love is “unlikely” to play Friday due to a lower-body injury sustained at some point in camp. Love rushed for 240 yards and two TDs on 29 carries (7.8 YPC) last year. He also had 15 receptions for 250 yards and one TD.

Stanford’s defense gave up 22.6 points per game in ’15. This unit is led by sophomore Solomon Thomas and junior LB Peter Kalambayi. Thomas enjoyed a banner freshman campaign, recording 39 tackles, seven tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and six QB hurries. Kalambayi had 52 tackles, 4.5 sacks, one tackle for loss, three passes broken up and five QB hurries last year.

Stanford owns an 18-14 spread record as a home favorite during Shaw’s five-year tenure, going 11-5 ATS in its last 16 such spots.

Kansas State started 3-0 last season but saw two of its quarterbacks go down with season-ending injuries in the first two weeks. This left the job to Joe Hubener, who started 11 games. He completed only 47.6 percent of his passes for 1,837 yards with a 9/10 TD-INT ratio. Hubener rushed for 807 yards before subtracting sack yardage, finding paydirt a team-high 13 times.

Kansas State finished ’15 with a 6-7 record both SU and ATS after getting thumped 45-23 by Arkansas at the Liberty Bowl as a 13-point underdog. It was the first losing season since Bill Snyder resumed his head-coaching duties in 2009. The Wildcats dropped three one-possession games against ranked opponents, including a pair of losses to second-ranked foes. TCU rallied for a 52-45 win in Manhattan and Baylor won a 31-24 decision at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.

Kansas State returns five starters on offense and seven on defense. RB Charles Jones was last season’s leading rusher (696 yards) when he ran for five TDs and averaged 4.9 YPC. Deante Burton is back after leading the team with 38 receptions for 510 yards and four TDs.

Snyder named junior QB Jesse Ertz as his starter on Monday. Ertz started the opener vs. South Dakota last year, only to go down with a season-ending injury on his third play. He completed his only pass for a five-yard gain. In 2014, Ertz played in four games, rushing for 46 yards on seven carries.

VegasInsider.com handicapper KellyInVegas has a play on this game. When I asked Kelly about the QB situation at K-State, she said, “Many people around the program feel like Ertz is potentially one of the best combinations of a runner and accurate passer that Snyder has ever had, but that’s obviously based on practice performances. The coaching staff is eager to see him react in live-game situations. Ertz is a natural leader that his teammates love. And if you know Snyder, he loves it too.” You can get signed up for KellyInVegas’s season package here. Also, check out Kelly’s page on VI as she’ll be posting college football picks throughout the weekend.

Kansas State’s ’15 defense was the worst of Snyder’s second tour of duty, surrendering 31.5 PPG. On the bright side, the top five tacklers are back in the mix. Junior LB Elijah Lee is the leader of this unit. He earned second-team All Big 12 honors last season by recording a team-best 80 tackles to go with five sacks and three interceptions.

Since 2010, K-State has been a money-making machine in road underdog spots, producing a stellar 13-5 ATS record. Going back to 2011, the Wildcats have posted a 6-2 spread ledger with a pair of outright victories (at Miami in ’11 & at Oklahoma in ’12) in eight games as double-digit ‘dogs.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on Fox Sports 1.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

In one of the more under-the-radar matchups of Week 1, Arkansas State will host Toledo at Centennial Bank Stadium on Friday night at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU. The Rockets and Red Wolves are two of the nation’s best mid-major programs out of the MAC and Sun Belt, respectively. As of Tuesday, most spots had Arkansas State installed as a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 64.5 points. The Rockets have won at least nine games in four of the last five years, including a 10-2 SU record and a 9-3 spread mark in ’15. They spent five weeks in the national rankings, winning 16-12 at Arkansas as 21.5-point underdogs one week before defeating Iowa State at home in double overtime. Toledo capped the season by beating No. 24 Temple by a 32-17 count as a 2.5-point ‘dog at the Boca Raton Bowl. Jason Candle is replacing former head coach Matt Campbell, who left to take the Iowa State job. The Rockets bring back seven starters on offense and four on defense. They have star players like RBs Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson along with WRs Corey Jones and Cody Thompson.

Arkansas State has been to five consecutive bowl games. Blake Anderson’s team went 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS last season, losing 37-7 at Toledo. The Red Wolves also lost at USC (55-6) vs. Missouri (27-20) and vs. Louisiana Tech (47-28) at the New Orleans Bowl. They return six starters on offense and seven on defense. Also, Arkansas St. adds several impact transfers, including DT Dee Liner (Alabama), WR Kendall Sanders (Texas), QB Chad Voytik (Pittsburgh), QB Justice Hansen (Oklahoma) and WR/special-teams dynamo Cameron Echols-Luper (TCU).

There are two more games on Friday’s card: Ball State at Georgia State (-3.5) and Army at Temple (-16.5).

Florida star WR and special-teams ace Antonio Callaway has been cleared to play in Saturday’s home opener vs. UMass.

New Georgia head coach Kirby Smart clearly mastered the art of dealing with the media during his near-decade-long stretch at Alabama under Nick Saban. He hasn’t budged an inch on questions about who will be his starting QB against North Carolina on Saturday at the Georgia Dome. However, by all indications, it appears that true freshman Jacob Eason is going to get the nod ahead of senior Greyson Lambert. Star RB Nick Chubb, who suffered a major knee injury at Tennessee in early October last season, is ready to make his return and Smart said “he won’t be on a pitch count.” In other words, Chubb is ready to carry a heavy load for the Bulldogs.

Friday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Kansas State at Stanford
By Covers.com

Kansas State Wildcats at (7) Stanford Cardinal (-14.5, 48.5)

After suffering a costly season-opening loss a year ago, No. 7 Stanford looks to avoid a similar misstep Friday as the Cardinal welcomes Kansas State to Palo Alto. Star running back Christian McCaffrey returns for his junior season to lead Stanford, which captured last year’s Pac-12 and Rose Bowl titles but was kept out of the College Football Playoff due largely to its early loss to Northwestern.

The game features two unproven quarterbacks in Stanford senior Ryan Burns and Kansas State junior Jesse Ertz, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in last year’s opener against South Dakota. In addition to the two signal-callers, all eyes will be on McCaffrey, who broke Barry Sanders’ record for all-purpose yards in a season (3,864) and will receive another heavy workload this season after finishing second in last year’s Heisman Trophy race. “I’m going to start giving him some of my responsibilities,” coach David Shaw told reporters. “The guy has handled everything else. We’re going to push him harder, push him further, and see if there’s more he can do.” McCaffrey will look to launch Stanford’s national title push with a big game against Kansas State, which was picked to finish eighth in the Big 12 preseason media poll.

LINE HISTORY: Stanford opened this game favored by 16-points over visiting Kansas State, but since then money has come back on the Wildcats, with the Cardinal now favored by two converted touchdowns.

The total has also seen quite a bit of movement. Since opening at the nice round number of 50, it was quickly bet down to 48.5 and then as low as 47.5. Money has come back on the Over since then, with the total back at 48.5 heading into Friday. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Kansas State - No injuries to report.

Stanford - RB B. Love (out Friday, lower body).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football at Stanford Stadium. The forecast is clear and will be in the low 70's at kickoff. There will be a 10 mph wind blowing from the west at kickoff but that will quickly diminish to 5 mph.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We have seen some sharp action come in on Stanford this morning (Thursday) moving our line from Stanford -14 to -14.5, with 62% of the action on Stanford to cover. Our 48 point total on this game is seeing just over 75% of the action on the OVER." - Michael Stewart of CarbonGaming.ag.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (2015: 6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS, 8-5 O/U): Ertz hasn’t attempted a pass in a college football game but coach Bill Snyder said his consistency in camp gave him the edge over Joe Hubener and Alex Delton, adding that all three could see time against Stanford. There are plenty of question marks surrounding the inexperienced receiving corps, but junior college transfer Byron Pringle shined in the spring game and could make an immediate impact. Kansas State’s defense allowed 452.2 yards and 31.5 points per game last season but could improve dramatically behind linebacker Elijah Lee, preseason All-Big 12 defensive end Jordan Willis and senior safety Dante Barnett, who missed nearly all of last season due to injury.

ABOUT STANFORD (2015: 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS, 8-6 O/U): Burns is a 6-foot-5 senior who has thrown one college pass but won the starting quarterback job over junior Keller Chryst after both battled to replace four-year starter Kevin Hogan in the fall. Besides McCaffrey, Burns has plenty of help on the offensive side, including wide receivers Michael Rector and Trenton Irwin along with tight end Dalton Schultz, who caught 10 passes for 121 yards last season. Stanford forced just 14 turnovers last season, but the physical defense returns six starters, including junior end Solomon Thomas, who had 10 1/2 tackles for loss last season

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pac-12.
* Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games.
* Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Cardinal last 5 games overall.

NCAAF Week 1

Georgia State (+13) won 31-19 at Ball State LY, throwing for 412 yards. Panthers are 1-3 as a home favorite in their brief history as a I-A team; their junior QB is a Utah transfer. Cardinals have 9 starters back on defense; their soph QB started 9 games LY. Over last decade, Ball State is 30-14 as a road underdog, but they were 1-4 LY. Ball’s new coach is an alum who was QB coach of the Saints last two years; he was an Arena League HC for six years.

Army lost 7 games by a TD or less LY, most in nation; Cadets lost last three games with Temple by 28-31-19 points- last meeting was in ’13. Army was 3-0-2 as a road dog LY, after being 0-9 the previous three years- their soph QB started twice LY. Temple has 6 starters back on both sides of ball; they’ve got senior QB with 33 starts, but three new starters on OL. Owls play I-AA team next week before they face Penn State team they beat LY.

Kansas State is 15-7 as road underdogs since Snyder returned as HC in ’09; Wildcats are 11-18 vs spread in non-league games during that time. State lost 4 starters on OL; they get QB Ertz back from injury- he got KO’d for year on 2nd play of year LY. Stanford has new QB, 3 new starters on OL; Cardinal was 9-4 as home favorites last two years. Last five years, Big X teams are 11-6 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 squad (7-3 as underdogs).

Toledo outgained Arkansas State 477-209, was +4 in turnovers in 37-7 home win (-7) LY. Rockets lost their coach and 7 starters on defense; they’ve got junior QB with 11 starts, 4 starters back on OL. Toledo is 15-5 in last 20 games as a road dog. ASU has grad transfer QB who started 15 games for Pitt; State is 8-4 as home favorite under Anderson. Red Wolves have whole OL back from LY (109 starts, all senior starters). Last four years, MAC teams are 8-6 vs spread when facing a Sun Belt team (6-3 as dogs).

Colorado/Colorado State split last four meetings (dogs 3-0-1 vs spread); this game is at neutral Denver site. Buffs have 18 starters back and senior QB who has 29 starts- they’re 6-2 as favorites under MacIntyre. State has only 10 starters back; their junior QB has 13 starts. Rams are 6-5 as underdogs last three years.

Armadillosports.com